Sports
Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 3
It’s three weeks into the season and Notre Dame has dropped out of the playoff conversation with an 0-2 start following its home loss to Texas A&M on Saturday.
In what was a wild, entertaining evening of college football. Georgia’s overtime win at Tennessee was overshadowed by what unfolded later in South Bend because the Aggies’ win had the bigger, more immediate impact on the playoff race.
And it’s gonna last all season for the Irish, who no longer have any margin for error and have lost all control on their path to the playoff.
“The future’s uncertain,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “I don’t know what’s the playoff number, and it doesn’t matter. We need to focus on getting better.”
So what does it mean for Texas A&M?
This list is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Like the selection committee, it is a ranking based on what each team has done to-date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country, but the Longhorns continue to have questions on offense against far less elite defenses. The Buckeyes entered this week No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and are ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — traits of past top-four playoff teams.
Why they could be lower: The committee does track when teams play FCS teams, and the 70-0 drubbing of Grambling doesn’t help Ohio State’s résumé. Saturday’s win against Ohio also doesn’t do much for the Buckeyes during a week in which Miami, Georgia and LSU all played tougher teams.
Need to know: Even if Texas doesn’t live up to the preseason hype and ranking, the selection committee will continue to respect Ohio State’s win against the Longhorns all season — as long as Texas doesn’t come unraveled. It will be a moot point if Ohio State locks up a CFP spot by winning the Big Ten, but it would enter the conversation and help the Buckeyes when it comes to how high they can be seeded for an at-large bid. The top four teams now get the top four seeds — regardless of if they are a conference champion.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes added to their résumé with a win against South Florida, which should still be the Group of 5’s top contender for a playoff spot. Coupled with the season-opening win against Notre Dame, Miami has one of the best combinations of eye test and résumé in the country.
Why they could be lower: The committee could be more impressed with the SEC wins, period. Georgia’s overtime road win against Tennessee could trump Miami’s home win against the Irish, and LSU’s two Power 4 wins against Clemson and now Florida could also usurp the Canes in a debate.
Need to know: Saturday’s win against the Bulls was a critical head-to-head tiebreaker that would be used in the committee meeting room if both teams finish with similar records. Even if they lock up spots as their respective conference champions, Miami would keep the edge — and the higher seed — on Selection Day, which could mean the difference in hosting a first-round home game.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 54.3% chance to beat their rival.
Why they could be here: The win against Tennessee in the SEC opener was the Bulldogs’ first statement victory, and it now lifts them above other contenders who have played well but against weaker teams. Ohio State’s defense, though, continues to keep the Buckeyes at the top, and Miami’s two wins against ranked teams — Notre Dame and South Florida — gives them an edge in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which is similar to what the committee uses.
Why they could be higher: The committee considers the difficulty of playing overtime games on the road, and the former coaches and players in the room would also recognize the growth of quarterback Gunner Stockton in that unforgiving environment. Stockton completed 23 of 31 attempts for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for a score.
Need to know: It’s possible this instant classic could get a replay — either in the SEC championship game, the playoff — or both. The selection committee doesn’t try to avoid rematches when it’s ranking the teams, so it’s possible for Georgia and Tennessee to play as many as three times.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have bye week to prepare for it, but the Tide has shown continuous improvement since its season-opening loss to Florida State.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson took another hit after the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, and the true value of beating a beleaguered Florida team at home is yet to be determined. Still, those combined wins outweigh what most of the contenders below them have accomplished. LSU’s defense has been a highlight, as the Tigers were No. 11 in the country in defensive efficiency heading into Week 3. They shut the Gators out in the second half and quarterback DJ Lagway threw five interceptions.
Why they could be lower: The Tigers still haven’t flashed that wow factor, continuing to do just enough to win while overcoming mistakes. LSU only had 10 first downs (compared to 22 by Florida), was held under 100 yards rushing, and was 4-of-14 on third downs. LSU ranks behind several other contenders listed below in ESPN’s game control metric.
Need to know: LSU should be undefeated heading into its Sept. 27 game at Ole Miss, which will be one of three critical road trip that will define the Tigers’ season. LSU also travels to Alabama and Oklahoma. The win against the Gators gives them a much-needed cushion, but they can’t go 0-3 on the road against those teams — and that doesn’t count the Oct. 18 trip to Vandy, which just beat South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The road win at Notre Dame was the first statement playoff win under coach Mike Elko, and it gives the Aggies one of the best nonconference wins of the season. It’s arguably better than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M did it on the road. It certainly wasn’t a flawless performance, but it was enough to boost the Aggies into the conversation.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to tell how good a win against Notre Dame is this year, considering they’re 0-2. Texas A&M’s other two wins were against UTSA and Utah State, which won’t help their résumé.
Need to know: The selection committee compares results against common opponents. While it’s not an overriding factor, the group would at least consider how Miami and Texas A&M both looked in their wins against the Irish if they were comparing the Aggies and Canes side-by-side during the ranking process.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road.
Why they could be here: With wins against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Northwestern, the Ducks have yet to be tested against ranked competition, but they haven’t had any scares along the way. They shut out Northwestern for the first three quarters of their Big Ten opener and continued to look dominant even when scoring fewer than 60 points. Most of the teams ranked above them, though, have a more impressive win.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks are passing the eye test, albeit against weaker competition. They didn’t have any penalties in the win against Northwestern, and quarterback Dante Moore has only thrown one interception this season.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, so Penn State and Indiana (maybe USC?) will be the Ducks biggest obstacles to returning to the Big Ten title game. Even if the Ducks lose at Penn State, though, they could see the Nittany Lions again in the Big Ten championship (if Penn State can knock Ohio State out of it).
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 50.8% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Noles had a bye, and the committee typically doesn’t shift teams that don’t play — unless it results from movement around them. The season-opening win against Alabama continues to shine, as the Tide has rebounded with back-to-back convincing wins. It also helps separate FSU from other contenders who didn’t earn a nonconference win against a top-25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: The win against Bama is all they’ve got right now. The 77-3 blowout of FCS East Texas A&M won’t help them, and while the bye week isn’t a penalty, other teams had an opportunity to enhance their strength of record.
Need to know: Florida State doesn’t play Georgia Tech during the regular season, but it has a tricky trio against Miami, Clemson and at rival Florida. If the Noles can go 2-0 against the SEC, it would be a significant boost to their at-large hopes if they don’t win the ACC — assuming both the Gators and Tide finish above .500 and have respectable seasons.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. The Nov. 8 trip to Clemson looks less daunting now that the Tigers have lost a second game.
Why they could be here: The preseason rankings and hype are irrelevant in the committee meeting room but the weak nonconference schedule is not. Wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping the Nittany Lions behind teams who have played against better opponents. The offense found a groove during a dominant second half against the Wildcats and the defense did not allow a touchdown until the final play of the game.
Why they could be lower: Penn State’s nonconference win doesn’t include a Power 4 opponent, and questions linger about whether the offense is productive enough to beat Oregon. Expectations for quarterback Drew Allar were high entering this season, but he only has four passing touchdowns in three games against weaker opponents. He’s completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the past two games. The Nittany Lions rank No. 65 in offensive efficiency — and the selection committee will expect more.
Need to know: The Nittany Lions have a bye week before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule that ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: There was no hint of a letdown at Temple a week after beating Michigan. The committee has always shown an appreciation for starpower, and OU has it in quarterback John Mateer, who has resurrected the Sooners’ offense. Oklahoma’s lopsided win against an overmatched Temple team won’t do anything to boost its résumé, but it assured the Sooners of a 3-0 start heading into Saturday’s SEC opener against Auburn.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has changed the outlook of this team, and the win against Michigan is one of the better nonconference wins in the country. The Wolverines rebounded and whalloped Central Michigan 63-3, reiterating the potential of freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who was smothered by OU’s defense.
Need to know: Oklahoma started 3-0 last year with a win against Temple, too, but then lost four of its next five games. The win against Michigan and play of Mateer so far indicates this season could be different, but the season-defining stretch begins against rival Texas on Oct. 11. The back half of the Sooners’ schedule is loaded with seven straight games against opponents that entered Week 3 ranked.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 74.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols’ game was so close that Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward he almost felt like he should apologize: “I don’t think we should have won that game. I thought they outplayed us in a lot of ways.” The committee isn’t going to penalize the Vols for losing an overtime game at home to one of the SEC’s best teams, but it will wonder about allowing 44 points, 502 yards, and having 10 penalties and two turnovers. The committee will still respect the season-opening win against Syracuse, which has won each of its past two games against weaker opponents.
Why they could be lower: The lack of a true statement win plus the loss could drop them behind the Illini. Considering the offensive showing, though, it’s hard to make a case for Texas ahead of Tennessee. The committee would consider that the Vols lost at home, while Texas lost at Ohio State. Tennessee’s win against Syracuse, though, is better than anything on the Longhorns’ résumé so far.
Need to know: The Vols still have a realistic path to the SEC championship, where they could meet Georgia again. Tennessee doesn’t play LSU or Texas. It can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma, but the Vols get the Sooners at home.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 63.6% chance to win, but it’s the only other game on the schedule that the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Illini are 3-0 heading into their Big Ten opener at Indiana, including a road win at Duke. Illinois had no trouble with winless Western Michigan, but that’s not going to change its status in the committee meeting room this week. It didn’t help Illinois that Duke lost to Tulane, which somewhat devalues that win — at least for now.
Why they could be higher: Illinois is a legitimately talented, veteran team that continues to take care of business with a veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer. The Illini entered the week ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency, another stat that would jump out at the committee.
Need to know: Saturday’s game at Indiana will be an under-the-radar game that could impact the CFP because both teams could be competing with each other for an at-large bid. The winner could ultimately knock the loser out with the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s possible for them both to get in, but it’s hard to imagine the Big Ten getting five teams in the 12-team field (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana and Illinois).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 74.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns have won back-to-back games since their season-opening loss at Ohio State, but questions about the offense remain. Running backs CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner missed all or parts of the game with injuries, and quarterback Arch Manning had another underwhelming passing performance with one touchdown and an interception. He did account for two rushing touchdowns, but this was hardly a smooth performance. Texas was just 5-of-16 on third downs and 2-of-5 on fourth downs. Meanwhile, rival Oklahoma is soaring offensively with quarterback John Mateer, and the Sooners’ win against Michigan is better than anything Texas has earned.
Why they could be lower: It’s been Arch Maddening for Texas fans, who booed their quarterback after an interception in the red zone. That throw was part of 10 straight incompletions at one point. Manning completed just 5 of 16 passes (31%) in the first half for 69 yards.
Need to know: The Longhorns have one more tune-up game, on Saturday against Sam Houston, before opening SEC play on Oct. 4 at Florida.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 LSU
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Penn State
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
January transfers usually don’t work out. Granted, most transfers usually don’t work out, but the winter window is when an already-inefficient market becomes a place where you’re paying 80 cents for the opportunity to guess heads or tails on a coin flip with a 20-cent payout.
January signings tend to have about a 20% markup when compared with similar signings made in the summer. Over the past decade, there have been very few — if any — teams who made a big winter signing and then got carried by that player to a title that wouldn’t have otherwise happened. And one study found that about 50% of strikers signed in this window have gone on to score zero goals from their arrival through the end of the season.
This isn’t to say that January signings are all destined to fail. Just look at Virgil van Dijk, Bruno Fernandes or Martin Ødegaard. But in most cases, if you’re spending lots of money on signings that you know are going to cost extra and are unlikely to make a massive difference between now and the end of the season, then you’re desperate.
And, well, Premier League clubs have spent more than €400 million on transfers over the past month, while no other league spent more than €230 million. The most desperate clubs in the world are the ones in the richest league in the world because the average level of play has never been higher, and neither has the reward for finishing higher up in the table.
Which teams, though, were the most desperate in this transfer window that closed Monday? We’ve ranked all 20 Premier League teams from the least to the most desperate.
Not desperate, but they could’ve been
20. Liverpool
19. Wolverhampton Wanderers
18. Arsenal
17. Newcastle United
16. Burnley
One of my favorite recurring bits of commentary, fan reaction and general internet angst is this one about Liverpool. The team spent a club record amount of money and added seven new players this past summer, they let a bunch of key players leave, and it totally disrupted the progress and cohesion of the team. So, therefore, the solution to this problem must be: to sign even more new players.
Liverpool have a lot of injuries, they’re likely to end up in a three-for-two battle with Chelsea and Manchester United for the final two spots in the Champions League (even with a possible extra fifth place), and they have a decent shot at winning the Champions League. They responded to that by … not signing anyone. This should surprise absolutely no one.
The last time they were in a similar position, they finished the season with Nat Phillips and Rhys Williams as their starting center backs — and still qualified for the Champions League. They did make a €60 million signing at center back, of course, but Rennes’ star Jérémy Jacquet won’t join the club until the summer.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have depth to spare, going two or three deep at every position. Despite the furor over their 3-2 loss to Manchester United last weekend, they’ve remained big favorites to win the league. A week later, they’re even bigger favorites to win the league after Manchester City and Aston Villa dropped points. Newcastle, meanwhile, continue to operate in a way that I don’t really understand — what is the Saudi ownership group actually trying to achieve here by not throwing their financial weight around more?
At the other end of the table, Wolves and Burnley have both made some minor moves — both ins and outs — as they each seem resigned to the fact that they won’t be in the Premier League next season. Wolves’ one big move was an outgoing one: They’re collecting close to €50 million in exchange for allowing Jørgen Strand Larsen to move to Crystal Palace.
We signed someone — but he’s not playing any time soon
15. Brentford
14. AFC Bournemouth
13. Sunderland
Brentford and Sunderland both signed young players you’ve probably never heard of (Kaye Furo and Nilson Angulo, anyone?), and Bournemouth let their best player (Antoine Semenyo) leave for Man City and then signed a couple of much-more expensive young players who you actually might have heard of (Rayan and Alex Tóth). None of these teams are doing anything where the goal is to maximize the number of points they win this season.
We signed someone — but he’s going to be playing for us for a long time
12. Fulham
It felt like a big deal when Oscar Bobb was injured last season … as in, Manchester City appeared to be relying on him to play significant minutes as part of their forward rotation. A year-and-a-half later, he’s off to Fulham for a fee (€31 million) that seems (a) way too low for a 22-year-old I was able to write that previous sentence about, and (b) way too high for a player who has a goal and two assists in seven Premier League starts. He has attempted eight total shots in the league.
That said, I don’t hate the risk for Fulham, who aren’t in danger of being relegated this season but need the squad to get younger as soon as possible. Now, I would not have felt the same way about the potential, similarly priced move for PSV’s Ricardo Pepi, but that fell apart on the last day of the window.
We’ll take a small bite, why not?
11. Brighton & Hove Albion
10. Leeds United
9. Everton
8. Nottingham Forest
Using the projections from Simon Tinsley’s website, Analytic.Football, all these teams have a combined 2% chance of finishing in the top five and a combined 17% chance of being relegated. All of the relegation equity comes from Leeds and Forest, who both signed a player or two on loan, while Forest also signed Man City’s backup keeper Stefan Ortega, permanently.
The meager Champions League probabilities come just from Brighton and Everton. Neither team made any permanent transfers — just a couple of loans to add some depth and plug some minor holes.
We have our feet in the freezer and our heads in the oven
7. Crystal Palace
There’s a joke among statisticians that if your head is in the oven and your feet are in the freezer, then your average body temperature would suggest that everything is fine. And I think that just about sums up the current situation at Palace.
Their head coach Oliver Glasner already announced that he’s leaving after the season, they let their club captain, Marc Guéhi, leave for City, and star striker Jean-Philippe Mateta announced he wanted to leave, only for AC Milan to pull out of a deal on deadline day. This season is clearly a wash … right?
Well, they also spent €90 million combined on winger Brennan Johnson and striker Jørgen Strand Larsen. Johnson was a fine signing for a team that badly needed forward depth, but JSL literally has one goal this season, and he’s a striker. He’s barely attempting more than one shot per game. They also brought in Evann Guessand on loan from Aston Villa. With the Champions League out of reach, I guess this is all for a potential UEFA Conference League run?
1:39
Has Crystal Palace’s transfer strategy let them down again?
James Olley examines the collapse of Jean-Philippe Mateta’s move to AC Milan and what it says about Palace’s recruitment strategy.
We fired our coaches but didn’t sign any new players
6. Manchester United
5. Chelsea
There’s the new manager bump, and then there’s whatever is happening at both of these clubs, who have scored 16 goals from 10.6 xG in Liam Rosenior’s and Michael Carrick’s first three matches. Can the performances catch up with the results? It usually doesn’t work that way.
We just wanted a better, younger version of what we already had
4. Tottenham Hotspur
I think Conor Gallagher is a fantastic, Champions League-quality midfielder. He’s right at the beginning of his prime years, and Spurs got him for a €40 million fee — less than Palace paid to bring in Strand Larsen, who is the same age. In a vacuum, this is a solid move for the team currently 14th in the table.
In reality, Gallagher is a hard-working, glue-guy-type midfielder, and Tottenham already have a bunch of those. The midfield still doesn’t really offer any skill at the main thing midfielders are supposed to do: pass the ball.
We’re sure doing a lot
3. West Ham United
2. Manchester City
Two wins from their past three have the Hammers at least within touching distance of 17th place. They’re still heavy favorites to be relegated, but there’s enough of a chance that they survive that you could at least make the case that a bunch of “win-now” signings would be worth it.
It seems as if they’ve tried to both plan for a future in the Championship and improve the team right now. How else to explain the decision to let Lucas Paquetá leave for a €42.25 million return to Brazil while at the same time bringing in 27-year-old forward Valentín Castellanos from Lazio? They’ve signed two other players: 22-year-old Pablo from Gil Vicente in Portugal and 30-year-old Adama Traoré from Fulham.
Back at the other end of the table, Man City’s transfer business continues to baffle. They paid an extra €23 million to bring in Palace defender Marc Guéhi, who would’ve been a free agent after the season. And then they paid €72 million to sign 26-year-old winger Semenyo, who has been great for Bournemouth but doesn’t really seem as if he helps with a position of need for a team with plenty of excellent attackers.
In a league in which there are real spending controls now, you don’t spend nearly €100 million on transfer fees for those two players unless you’re desperate.
We don’t care about the future because the present is a gift
1. Aston Villa
Villa are the second-oldest team in the league by average age. They’ve signed and loaned two players in; they’ve transferred and loaned two players out. The average age of the players who left: 25.5; the average age of the players who arrived: 27.5.
They’ve signed Douglas Luiz on loan from Juventus — and they badly need midfield depth — but you only spend €2 million on a 15-game loan when you’re desperate. This team don’t have unlimited money, and the squad is going to need to start getting younger really soon, but Villa have instead invested €21 million into signing 28-year-old Tammy Abraham. It doesn’t get more “win-now” than those two moves.
Villa are currently seven points clear of sixth-place Liverpool. They just spent a lot of money to make sure that gap doesn’t get closed up over the next three months.
Cricket’s T20 World Cup begins Saturday after an acrimonious build‑up overshadowed by political turmoil, with Bangladesh kicked out and Pakistan refusing to face arch-rivals and co-hosts India.
When the first ball is finally bowled after a chaotic lead-in, Pakistan will open the tournament against the Netherlands in Colombo.
Defending champions and tournament favourites India will make their tournament bow in the night match on day one against the United States in Mumbai, carrying the hopes of a billion-plus home cricket supporters.
Led by Suryakumar Yadav, India will start as firm tournament favourites and are expected to ease into the Super Eight stage from Group A.
But they will be wary of the United States, who are looking to take down another cricketing powerhouse, having shocked Pakistan to make the Super Eights in 2024.
Former champions Australia and England are also strong contenders to lift the trophy and deny holders India the title for a record second straight time.
The 2021 winners Australia have been hit hard by the absence of pace spearhead Pat Cummins, who was ruled out with a lower back injury.
Pace bowler Josh Hazlewood will miss the early stages as he recovers from hamstring and Achilles injuries.
Led by Mitchell Marsh, the Australians should still ease into the next round from Group B against Ireland, who they play first on Wednesday, plus co-hosts Sri Lanka Oman and Zimbabwe.
Harry Brook’s England, full of confidence after a 3-0 T20 series win in Sri Lanka this week, are expected to make the Super Eights from a Group C that also features two-time winners West Indies, debutants Italy, Nepal and Scotland.
Brook, under intense scrutiny after having to apologise for an incident with a night club bouncer in New Zealand last year, takes charge at a global tournament for the first time since he replaced Jos Buttler as white ball captain.
England, who start with a match against Nepal on Sunday in Mumbai, won the tournament in 2010 and 2022.
Scotland, after their 11th-hour call-up to replace Bangladesh, will take guard on the opening day when they face the West Indies in Kolkata.
Football powerhouse Italy will make an appearance at a cricket World Cup for the first time, and will kick off against the Scots in Kolkata on Monday.
South Africa, the runners-up in 2024, have never won a white ball World Cup, but are buoyed by winning the World Test Championship last year.
They will be a threat but must first emerge from a tough-looking Group D that contains dangerous opponents in New Zealand and Afghanistan.
They begin against Canada on Monday in Ahmedabad, with the UAE the other team in that group.
The top two teams from each of the four groups of five teams will advance to the Super Eights, with the top four making the semi-finals.
Politics, pullouts
There will be relief at the weekend when the action gets under way finally after weeks of political posturing that has dominated the build-up to 10th edition of the showpiece tournament.
Bangladesh refused to play in India, citing security concerns, as relations between the two countries soured and were kicked out by the International Cricket Council (ICC) from England’s Group C.
The ICC is led by Jay Shah, the former Indian cricket board secretary and son of the powerful Indian home minister Amit Shah.
Pakistan, who had backed Bangladesh’s plea to have their games moved to Sri Lanka, were cleared to play by the Islamabad government but they ordered the team not to play the marquee group clash against fierce rivals India on February 15.
According to media reports, the ICC is still waiting formal communication from the Pakistan Cricket Board on the boycott, leaving the door slightly ajar for a last-minute deal to get the game on.
If India are awarded a walkover, Pakistan will lose two points and take a big hit to their net run rate.
If any of their other three Group A games are lost to the weather then it could make it almost impossible for Pakistan to qualify.
Pakistan’s pullout will result in a loss of millions of dollars in revenue for broadcasters, and will be a huge letdown for fans on both sides.
The crisis was triggered last month when India’s cricket board ordered the IPL’s Kolkata Knight Riders to drop Bangladesh fast bowler Mustafizur Rahman, a move that deepened political strains between the neighbours.
The tournament will conclude with the final on March 8 in Ahmedabad or Colombo, depending on whether Pakistan go that far.
Manchester City’s Omar Marmoush (L) celebrates scoring against Newcastle. Photo: AFP
MANCHESTER:
Manchester City will face Arsenal in the League Cup final after ending Newcastle’s reign as holders with a first-half blitz in their 3-1 victory on Wednesday.
Pep Guardiola’s side were already in pole position after winning the semi-final first leg on Tyneside in January and they finished the job in ruthless fashion at the Etihad Stadium.
Omar Marmoush struck twice in the first half of the second leg before Tijjani Reijnders put the result beyond doubt.
Anthony Elanga reduced the deficit after the interval, but City’s 5-1 aggregate win sent them back to the League Cup showpiece for the first time since 2021.
City’s final date with Arsenal is set for March 22 at Wembley after the Premier League leaders knocked out Chelsea on Tuesday.
Reaching the final was a welcome tonic for Guardiola following the frustration of blowing a two-goal lead in a 2-2 draw at Tottenham on Sunday that delivered a major blow to their title challenge.
With a crucial trip to Liverpool looming this weekend, City trail Arsenal by six points in the Premier League title race.
The League Cup was the first silverware of Guardiola’s City reign when they beat Arsenal in the 2018 final, with current Gunners boss Mikel Arteta then working as the Spaniard’s assistant.
City went on to win the competition for the following three years, but haven’t lifted the League Cup since 2021.
“We will travel to London again, they will wait for us there. They never travel to the north (for finals) but I am really happy to be back. Five (League Cup) finals in 10 years is a big milestone,” Guardiola said.
“It will be good. You have to live this experience. The first title we won here was in the League Cup.
“When you win something, it helps to win more. It’s a pleasure to play against Arsenal, the best team right now in Europe and maybe the world.”
Newcastle boss Eddie Howe added: “Really annoyed with the first half display. We pride ourselves on being really organised and tactically we want to be able to handle any problem the opposition gives us.
“That first half we weren’t good enough individually and our duels were off and it gave us huge problems.”
Guardiola used sarcasm and statistics this week to defend City against claims the club’s success has been due to the financial muscle of their Abu Dhabi-based owners.
The City manager pointed out six English clubs have spent more than his side over the past five years, but he knows he will never win over the critics.
Slick City
Guardiola’s only way to silence the outside noise — and mounting suggestions that City are a team in decline — is with silverware.
And after finishing last season without a trophy for the first time in eight years, Guardiola would love to end City’s barren spell at Arsenal’s expense.
Marmoush put City ahead with a stroke of luck in the seventh minute.
He raced into the Newcastle penalty area and when Dan Burn made a last-ditch tackle, the ball bounced off the Egypt forward and looped into the net.
James Trafford preserved City’s lead, saving from Joe Willock and Anthony Gordon in quick succession.
Marmoush struck for the second time in the 29th minute, heading home from virtually on the goal-line after Kieran Trippier made a hash of clearing Antoine Semenyo’s cross.
That was the culmination of an incisive City counter-attack and they pulled Newcastle apart again with another rapid raid in the 32nd minute.
Reijnders led the break, picking out Semenyo and racing into the area to finish the Ghanaian’s return pass with a clinical low drive from 12 yards.
City barely got out of first gear in the second half and Elanga got one back in the 62nd minute, curling into the far corner after slaloming through the defence.
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