Business
Reeves could face £20bn Budget hole as UK productivity downgraded
The government is facing a bigger-than-expected hole in the public finances as it prepares for next month’s Budget.
A downgrade to the UK’s productivity performance from the government’s official forecaster could lead to the chancellor facing a £20bn gap in meeting her tax and spending rules, the BBC understands.
Rachel Reeves has confirmed both tax rises and spending cuts are options in next month’s Budget.
The Treasury declined to comment on “speculation” ahead of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) final forecast, which will be published on 26 November alongside the Budget.
It comes as the chancellor told an audience in Saudi Arabia that Brexit is partly to blame for high inflation in the UK.
Persistent higher prices have been a dampener on UK economic growth, because the Bank of England has kept interest rates higher to control inflation, and that has made Reeves’ job harder to balance tax and spending within her fiscal rules.
“Inflation is too high in countries around the world including in the UK, and one of the reasons for that is that there’s too much cost associated with trade with our nearest neighbours and trading partners,” Reeves said as she argued that closer economic ties with the EU could ease the inflation burden and boost economic growth.
“Businesses, especially small businesses, who face increasing red tape since we left the European Union, for workers, who are now locked out of the jobs market in Europe, there are obviously huge benefits from rebuilding some of those relations.”
The OBR will deliver its final draft forecast for Reeves’s Budget, including productivity – a measure of the output of the economy per hour worked – to the Treasury on Friday.
The forecaster had previously assumed a partial bounce back in productivity growth, but this has never materialised.
This productivity assumption is essential to long-term growth prospects and so, under the current system, even a small change can alter how much money a Budget needs to raise by several billion pounds.
The OBR is understood to have downgraded forecast for productivity by 0.3 percentage points – a figure first reported by the Financial Times – bringing its assumption closer to that of the Bank of England.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank has calculated that for every 0.1 percentage point downgrade in the productivity forecast, government borrowing would increase by £7bn in 2029-30 – meaning a 0.3 point cut could add £21bn to the Budget hole.
The changes open up an initial gap of some £20bn, rather than the £10-£14bn widely anticipated.
Such a hole could be plugged by hiking taxes, reducing public spending or increasing government borrowing.
Reeves has set out two main Budget rules, which she has described as “non-negotiable”. These are:
- Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
- To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament
Reeves admitted on Monday to business leaders in Saudi Arabia that the OBR was “likely to downgrade productivity” which has been “very poor since the financial crisis and Brexit”.
The OBR is expected to explain the decision in detail, but some ministers have privately pointed out that if it had done this earlier, different choices could have been made at this summer’s Spending Review.
There are many other moving parts in the Budget which may bring better news for the chancellor, such as the decline in the interest rates paid on government debt.
However, with other pressures such as the U-turns on welfare spending and a desire to rebuild a bigger buffer in the public finances, speculation is pointing towards significant tax rises, including some possible breaches of manifesto commitments such as changes to income tax.
The Treasury will inform the OBR of its first draft Budget measures next week.
On Tuesday, the government announced it had agreed a series of trade and investment deals with Saudi Arabia, following Reeves’s visit to the Gulf.
This included up to £5bn in support from UK Export Finance for projects in Saudi Arabia which the government said would “unlock” contracts for British firms.
It also announced deals including a £37m investment from Saudi cybersecurity firm Cipher to set up its European office in London, and a £75m investment from Saudi investors and bankers into British digital bank Vemi.
The chancellor also met ministerial counterparts from Qatar and Kuwait for talks over a wider potential trade deal between the UK and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Business
CII Lays Out Investment Roadmap For Budget 2026-27
India’s next phase of economic growth will depend on steady and strong investment across public, private, and foreign channels, according to the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). CII, in a release, laid out a detailed plan for the Union Budget 2026-27, saying that the Budget needs to act as both a stabiliser and a growth driver.
CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee said the coming Budget must focus on boosting investments to keep India’s growth steady. He explained that public spending has pushed the country’s recovery after the pandemic, and that continued support in this area will help India stay on track as one of the fastest-growing major economies.
CII has suggested raising central capital expenditure by 12 per cent and increasing support to states by 10 per cent in FY27. These funds, it said, should go mainly to areas where spending creates the highest impact, such as transport, energy, logistics, and the green transition. CII also recommended creating a Capital Expenditure Efficiency Framework to help select and track important projects and measure their outcomes more clearly. Along with this, it proposed launching a new Rs 150 lakh crore National Infrastructure Pipeline for 2026-32 to give long-term clarity to investors and states.
The release also noted that India needs a more flexible fiscal policy. CII suggested shifting from strict annual deficit rules to a debt framework that adjusts with economic cycles. This, it said, would help the government respond better during shocks without losing long-term stability.
On private investment, CII highlighted that India now needs strong momentum from businesses to support growth. “The Government of India has provided a big demand push via income tax relief in last year’s Union Budget and recently via GST 2.0. Investments, especially private sector investment, will be the next big driver for economic growth that needs to be focused on in the next fiscal to continue the growth momentum,” Banerjee said.
CII recommended tax credits or easier compliance for companies that increase investments or production, along with returning accelerated depreciation to help firms, especially MSMEs, modernise.
To attract long-term global capital, CII proposed creating an NRI Investment Promotion Fund with partial government holding. This fund would help channel NRI and foreign institutional money into areas like infrastructure and AI. It also suggested strengthening the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund through a new Sovereign Investment Strategy Council to guide investments.
CII further called for simpler external borrowing rules and a single-window system for large foreign investment proposals to reduce delays and increase certainty. It also suggested forming an India Global Economic Forum to allow structured discussions between global investors and government leaders.
“An investment-driven growth strategy, anchored in fiscal credibility and institutional reforms, will define India’s next development phase,” Banerjee said.
Business
Can Indians Switch To A 4-Day Work Week? Here’s What Govt Says
New Delhi: For decades, the five-day work week has been the norm for most Indian employees. However, with rising conversations around work–life balance and productivity, many are now wondering if a four-day work week could become a reality in India. Several countries such as Japan, Germany and Spain have already experimented with shorter work schedules and reported encouraging outcomes. Interestingly, recent changes and discussions around India’s labour laws indicate that a four-day work week may be possible for certain sections of the workforce.
What the Labour Ministry Has Said on 4-Day Work Week
The Ministry of Labour and Employment recently clarified on X (formerly Twitter) that a four-day work week is possible under the new Labour Codes. According to the Ministry, employees can work for 12 hours a day for four days, while the remaining three days will be paid holidays. However, the total weekly working hours will still be capped at 48 hours, and any work beyond 12 hours in a day will have to be paid at double the normal wage rate.
Flexible Work Schedule Allowed Under New Labour Codes
The Labour Ministry has said that the revised Labour Codes allow employees to work 12 hours a day for four days, while the remaining three days can be taken as paid holidays, making a four-day work week possible under the new rules.
Weekly Work Hours Cap Remains Unchanged
The Labour Ministry clarified that the total working hours in a week will still be capped at 48 hours, even under a four-day work schedule. It also noted that the 12-hour workday includes breaks and spread-out time, ensuring employees are not working continuously for the entire duration.
What’s New Under India’s Updated Labour Laws
On November 21, 2025, the government consolidated 29 existing labour laws into four new labour codes—the Code on Wages (2019), Industrial Relations Code (2020), Social Security Code (2020), and the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code (2020). The move aims to simplify labour regulations while ensuring timely payment of wages, regulated working hours, better workplace safety and wider access to health and social security benefits.
A major change under the new codes is for fixed-term employees. They are now entitled to the same benefits as permanent workers, including leave, health coverage and social security. Notably, fixed-term workers can claim gratuity after just one year of continuous service, instead of the earlier five-year requirement, and must be paid wages equal to permanent employees doing similar work.
Business
Investment focus: CII pitches reforms for Budget 2026-27; industry body seeks capex push – The Times of India
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Centre to adopt a wide-ranging set of reforms in the Union Budget 2026-27 to reinforce India’s investment-led growth cycle and sustain its position as one of the world’s fastest-expanding major economies, PTI reported.In a detailed submission for the upcoming Budget, CII recommended raising central capital expenditure by 12% and increasing capex support to states by 10% in FY27, launching a Rs 150 lakh crore National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) 2.0 for 2026-32, and introducing incremental tax credits or compliance relaxations for companies achieving notable milestones in investment, output or tax contribution. The industry body also sought an NRI Investment Promotion Fund and the reinstatement of accelerated depreciation benefits to spur fresh capital expenditure, especially for MSMEs and manufacturing sectors, without triggering Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) liability.CII said strengthening the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) through a proposed Sovereign Investment Strategy Council (SIFC) would help align investments with national economic priorities. The Union Budget for FY27 is scheduled to be presented on February 1.According to the industry chamber, replacing rigid annual fiscal-deficit rules with an economic-cycle-based public debt framework would bolster resilience and allow counter-cyclical flexibility during global shocks, while ensuring the credibility of medium-term debt sustainability.“The forthcoming Union Budget 2026-27 has to serve the dual role of stabiliser and growth enabler, and promoting investments will be one of the most critical components in this regard,” said CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee.He added that CII’s proposals centre on fiscal prudence, capital efficiency and building investor confidence.CII stressed that public capex has been the backbone of India’s post-pandemic recovery, crowding in private investment. To improve execution, it suggested creating a Capital Expenditure Efficiency Framework (CEEF) for selecting high-impact projects and monitoring outcomes based on productivity and regional growth spillovers.The chamber said facilitating private and foreign investment will be essential in driving the next phase of expansion. It proposed tax incentives linked to new investment and production milestones in high-growth areas such as clean energy, electronics, semiconductors and logistics. It also suggested the creation of an NRI Investment Promotion Fund — a government-private entity with up to 49% government stake — to mobilise overseas and institutional capital into infrastructure and emerging sectors.Further, easing external commercial borrowing norms with higher limits, longer tenures and partial risk cover for infrastructure and manufacturing projects would improve access to foreign capital, CII said. A single-window clearance system with deemed approval within 60-90 days for large FDI proposals was also recommended to accelerate big-ticket investment decisions.To deepen engagement with global investors, CII proposed an India Global Economic Forum — a government-led platform bringing together sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, private equity firms and multinational corporations for structured dialogue with senior policymakers.“An investment-driven growth strategy, anchored in fiscal credibility and institutional reforms, will define India’s next development phase,” Banerjee said.
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