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Reeves could face £20bn Budget hole as UK productivity downgraded

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Reeves could face £20bn Budget hole as UK productivity downgraded


The government is facing a bigger-than-expected hole in the public finances as it prepares for next month’s Budget.

A downgrade to the UK’s productivity performance from the government’s official forecaster could lead to the chancellor facing a £20bn gap in meeting her tax and spending rules, the BBC understands.

Rachel Reeves has confirmed both tax rises and spending cuts are options in next month’s Budget.

The Treasury declined to comment on “speculation” ahead of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) final forecast, which will be published on 26 November alongside the Budget.

It comes as the chancellor told an audience in Saudi Arabia that Brexit is partly to blame for high inflation in the UK.

Persistent higher prices have been a dampener on UK economic growth, because the Bank of England has kept interest rates higher to control inflation, and that has made Reeves’ job harder to balance tax and spending within her fiscal rules.

“Inflation is too high in countries around the world including in the UK, and one of the reasons for that is that there’s too much cost associated with trade with our nearest neighbours and trading partners,” Reeves said as she argued that closer economic ties with the EU could ease the inflation burden and boost economic growth.

“Businesses, especially small businesses, who face increasing red tape since we left the European Union, for workers, who are now locked out of the jobs market in Europe, there are obviously huge benefits from rebuilding some of those relations.”

The OBR will deliver its final draft forecast for Reeves’s Budget, including productivity – a measure of the output of the economy per hour worked – to the Treasury on Friday.

The forecaster had previously assumed a partial bounce back in productivity growth, but this has never materialised.

This productivity assumption is essential to long-term growth prospects and so, under the current system, even a small change can alter how much money a Budget needs to raise by several billion pounds.

The OBR is understood to have downgraded forecast for productivity by 0.3 percentage points – a figure first reported by the Financial Times – bringing its assumption closer to that of the Bank of England.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank has calculated that for every 0.1 percentage point downgrade in the productivity forecast, government borrowing would increase by £7bn in 2029-30 – meaning a 0.3 point cut could add £21bn to the Budget hole.

The changes open up an initial gap of some £20bn, rather than the £10-£14bn widely anticipated.

Such a hole could be plugged by hiking taxes, reducing public spending or increasing government borrowing.

Reeves has set out two main Budget rules, which she has described as “non-negotiable”. These are:

  • Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
  • To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament

Reeves admitted on Monday to business leaders in Saudi Arabia that the OBR was “likely to downgrade productivity” which has been “very poor since the financial crisis and Brexit”.

The OBR is expected to explain the decision in detail, but some ministers have privately pointed out that if it had done this earlier, different choices could have been made at this summer’s Spending Review.

There are many other moving parts in the Budget which may bring better news for the chancellor, such as the decline in the interest rates paid on government debt.

However, with other pressures such as the U-turns on welfare spending and a desire to rebuild a bigger buffer in the public finances, speculation is pointing towards significant tax rises, including some possible breaches of manifesto commitments such as changes to income tax.

The Treasury will inform the OBR of its first draft Budget measures next week.

On Tuesday, the government announced it had agreed a series of trade and investment deals with Saudi Arabia, following Reeves’s visit to the Gulf.

This included up to £5bn in support from UK Export Finance for projects in Saudi Arabia which the government said would “unlock” contracts for British firms.

It also announced deals including a £37m investment from Saudi cybersecurity firm Cipher to set up its European office in London, and a £75m investment from Saudi investors and bankers into British digital bank Vemi.

The chancellor also met ministerial counterparts from Qatar and Kuwait for talks over a wider potential trade deal between the UK and the Gulf Cooperation Council.



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Gold and silver sell-off gathers steam in correction after record highs

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Gold and silver sell-off gathers steam in correction after record highs



Gold and silver prices have continued to drop sharply in a “brutal” sell-off after hitting record highs in recent weeks.

The precious metals began falling on Friday in response to US President Donald Trump’s nomination for the incoming chairman of the Federal Reserve.

His choice for former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace current chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May soothed some investor nerves, which boosted the US dollar but saw appetite for safe-haven investments gold and silver slump in response.

Gold and silver suffered their worst trading days for decades on Friday and were down heavily again on Monday, with spot prices off by another 7% and 11% respectively at one stage.

Silver had plunged by nearly 30% on Friday and gold dropped over 9% in its worst one-day drop since 1983.

Gold and silver had been enjoying a record breaking rally as investors sought refuge amid global geopolitical uncertainty, conflict and tariff woes.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said: “The sell-off has been far more brutal than I, and many, expected.”

He added: “For silver, the rally on the way up was faster than gold’s, so the correction on the way down is faster too.”

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, added: “If the sell off continues, then gold and silver are at risk of eroding their losses for the year so far.

“The historic move lower in silver prices has not stemmed a fall at the start of this week.

“Traders have not yet found a level that they are happy to buy the dips, and the timing of Chinese Lunar New Year in mid-February could accelerate the sell off, as Chinese traders reduce risk ahead of the holiday.”

UK and US stock markets are expected to open in the red on Monday, as the gold and silver rout has a knock on effect on mining giants, while Brent oil was also 5% lower.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Mining stocks are likely to feel the heat as metal prices scramble to find a floor.

“Oil prices are also trending the wrong way for investors in commodity-focused companies.”



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Budget’s mild fiscal consolidation to be positive for GDP growth: Report

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Budget’s mild fiscal consolidation to be positive for GDP growth: Report


Mumbai: Lower revenue as a share of GDP has been more than offset by cuts to subsidies and spending on current schemes, leading to the smallest fiscal consolidation in six years, likely positive for growth, a new report has said. 

The fiscal consolidation for FY27 is the slowest in six years. And the budgeted disinvestment, which is a below-the-line funding item, is likely to see the highest rise in six years, the report from HSBC Global Investment Research said.

“The central government continues with fiscal consolidation, though signing up for a gentler path for FY27; the fiscal impulse will likely turn neutral after several years in the negative, and this should be good news for GDP growth,” the research firm added.

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The report said that the services sector was the focus of the Budget, “with ambitious plans and increased outlays for medical institutions, universities, tourism, sports facilities, and the creative economy.”

Urban infrastructure saw a renewed push with each City Economic Region (CER) set to receive get Rs 50 billion over 5 years.

Seven new high-speed rail corridors will connect major cities, the report noted, adding large cities will also get an incentive of Rs 1 billion if they issue municipal bonds worth more than Rs 10 billion.

The report highlighted policy priorities, saying, “new manufacturing sectors were given incentives, namely biopharma, semiconductors, electronic components, rare earth corridors, chemical parks, container manufacturing, and high-tech tool rooms.”

Direct taxes are expected to grow faster than nominal GDP while indirect taxes will expand more slowly, with gross tax revenues budgeted to rise about 8 per cent year‑on‑year, the report said.

Central government set a fiscal deficit target of 4.3 per cent of GDP for FY27 after a 4.4 per cent estimate for FY26, and nominal GDP growth was pegged at 10 per cent.



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India’s $5 trillion economy push: How ‘C+1’ strategy could turn country into world’s factory

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India’s  trillion economy push: How ‘C+1’ strategy could turn country into world’s factory


New Delhi: India is preparing for a major economic transformation. The Union Budget 2026-27 lays out measures that could make the country the top choice for global manufacturing using the popular ‘China +1’ (C+1) strategy. This comes as international companies rethink supply chains after COVID-19 disruptions, rising trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

India has positioned itself as the backup factory for the world that is ready to absorb international demand in case of any crisis in China or Taiwan.

The government has offered tax breaks for cell phone, laptop, and semiconductor makers, making India more attractive to foreign investors. Reducing bureaucratic hurdles for global firms, the budget also strengthens the National Single Window System to simplify business procedures. The message is clear: India is ready to step in as a global manufacturing hub, ensuring supply continuity for the world.

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The expressway to a $5 trillion economy

China presently dominates about 40% of global manufacturing. Its factories supply critical products worldwide, but 2026 is expected to be a turning point. Expanding influence and economic opacity have made global companies seek alternatives.

India has leveraged this moment, offering a comprehensive incentive package for foreign manufacturers. Analysts call it more than policy; it is a blueprint to become a $5 trillion economy and reclaim India’s historic position as a global industrial leader.

Why the world needs India now

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the dangers of over-reliance on a single supplier. When China halted medical exports, nations realised the need for diversified supply chains. Major companies such as Apple and Samsung now see India as a dependable alternative.

China’s aging workforce and rising labour costs further enhance India’s appeal. With 65% of its population under 35, India offers a vast, skilled and affordable workforce for decades. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Taiwan, which produces 90% of advanced chips, has also created demand for a secure manufacturing backup. India is stepping in to fill that gap.

How India stands to gain from China’s challenges

India’s budget, 2026-27, slashes import duties on cell phone and laptop components, turning the country into a hub for component manufacturing, not just assembly. Electronics exports are projected to cross $120 billion by 2025.

The government has also launched a Rs 1.5 lakh crore semiconductor mission, attracting companies like Tata and Micron to establish advanced chip plants in India. In the chemical sector, stricter environmental regulations in China have shut down several plants, benefiting Indian companies such as Privi Specialty and Aarti Industries, which are now filling gaps in global supply chains.

Incentives for companies

The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme promises cash rewards for output, covering over 14 sectors. This is India’s answer to Chinese subsidies. From land acquisition to electricity connections, the National Single Window System now enables businesses to clear all approvals through a single portal.

Infrastructure investment has also received a massive boost, with Rs 11.11 lakh crore allocated under PM GatiShakti. New ports and dedicated freight corridors are being built to ensure that exports from India reach the world faster and cheaper than ever before.

India’s moves points to a strategic shift in global manufacturing. By rolling out the red carpet for foreign companies and investing heavily in infrastructure, technology and policy reforms, the country is poised to become the go-to destination for global supply chains. The C+1 formula is not only a concept; it is a roadmap to turn India into the next industrial superpower and a $5 trillion economy.

 

 



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