Business
Reeves signals manifesto-busting Budget will hike taxes
Rachel Reeves has all but admitted Labour’s manifesto pledge not to hike income tax will be ditched in her Budget.
The Chancellor said sticking to the election promise not to increase taxes for working people could only be met with “deep cuts” to public investment, which could derail hopes of future economic growth.
Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election win was built on a promise not to increase income tax, employees’ national insurance or VAT but Ms Reeves looks set to break that pledge.
She said instability around the world fuelled by Donald Trump’s tariffs and the war in Ukraine, along with an unexpected downgrade in economic growth forecasts from the budget watchdog, would force her to take difficult decisions in the November 26 Budget.
She told BBC Radio 5 Live: “I will set out the choices in the Budget.
“It would, of course be possible to stick with the manifesto commitments, but that would require things like deep cuts in capital spending and the reason why our productivity and our growth has been so poor these last few years is because governments have always taken the easy option to cut investment – in rail and road projects, in energy projects, in digital infrastructure.
“And as a result, we’ve never managed to get our productivity back to where it was before the financial crisis.
“So we’ve always got choices to make, and what I promised during the election campaign was to bring stability back to our economy, and what I can promise now is I will always do what I think is right for our country.”
She added: “We’re still going through the process at the moment of preparing the Budget measures.
“So those final decisions haven’t been taken yet, but as I take those measures, I will do what I believe is right for our country, and sometimes that means not always making the easy decisions, but the decisions that I think are in our national interest.”
Ms Reeves said the forecasts for economic growth would be downgraded because of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s revisions of the UK’s productivity.
She told BBC Radio 5 Live: “I have been really clear that we are looking at both taxes and spending as part of this Budget, a couple of things have influenced the budget situation this year.
“The first is that the independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, has done a review of how productive the economy is.
“They’ll be very clear this is based on our productivity performance of the last few years under the last government, but they’re using it to make projections about productivity in the future, and that does mean lower growth, and we have to accommodate that, because we have to live within our means.”
Ongoing “conflicts and disruptions to trade” were hitting growth around the world, she added.
But she also acknowledged her decision to hike taxes in her first budget, including an increase in employers’ national insurance contributions, had also had an impact.
She said: “I recognise that those decisions to increase taxes in the budget last year would have an impact on business and on the wealthiest whose taxes we increased.
“What I would say is doing nothing wasn’t an option.”
She said the measures had helped fund a drop in NHS waiting lists and had also provided the stability to the public finances which had allowed interest rates to fall.
The Chancellor indicated she will scrap the two-child benefit cap, saying there were “costs to our economy in allowing child poverty to go unchecked”.
She added: “In the end, a child should not be penalised because their parents don’t have very much money.”
Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell has warned that breaking the pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT would damage “trust in politics” and “we should be following through on our manifesto, of course”.
Ms Reeves said: “I think Lucy has been very clear since that interview that she stands alongside me and the decisions that I’ll need to make in that Budget.”
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “Rachel Reeves is trying to pull the wool over your eyes. Having already raised taxes by £40 billion she said she had wiped the slate clean, she wouldn’t be coming back for more and it was now on her.
“Every time the numbers don’t add up, Reeves blames someone else. But this is about choices – and the Chancellor is making all the wrong choices.”
The average woman employee “effectively works for 47 days of the year for free,” according to the Trades Union Congress.
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Gold, Silver likely to consolidate in coming week amid Fed rate-cut uncertainty: Analysts – The Times of India
Precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile and witness further consolidation in the coming week as investors track key US economic indicators, including inflation data, GDP readings and signals from the Federal Reserve, analysts said.Traders are also likely to monitor US labour market data, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and speeches from Fed officials for clarity on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts, as per news agency PTI.
Volatility to persist on US GDP, PCE data
Pranav Mer, vice president, EBG – commodity & currency research at JM Financial Services Ltd, said gold and silver prices may continue to witness consolidative moves, though volatility is expected to persist.“Gold and silver prices may continue to see more consolidative moves but volatility will prevail with focus on incoming US data on GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers and Federal Reserve official’s commentary,” he said, as per PTI.On the domestic front, silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) declined Rs 5,532, or 2.2 per cent, over the past week, while gold rose Rs 444, or 0.3 per cent.
Gold corrects sharply in February
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP – research, non-agri commodities and currencies at Angel One, said gold prices have corrected in February.“Gold prices have fallen in February 2026, with prices correcting from highs of Rs 1,80,000 per 10 grams to around Rs 1,53,800 per 10 grams as on February 13,” he said, as per PTI.He attributed the weakness to stronger-than-expected US employment data, which has reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts and weighed on gold prices in the past week.“However, the yellow metal’s safe haven appeal remains intact on account of geopolitical tensions, and strong buying ahead of the Lunar New Year. It’s a tug of war between bears and bulls this week, and the volatility will continue in the week ahead,” Mallya added.
International trends and market drivers
In the international market, Comex gold futures gained $84, or 1.7 per cent, during the week, while silver edged up marginally to close at $77.27 per ounce.Mer said gold prices moved between gains and losses through most of the trading sessions but managed to end the week higher.“Gold prices see-sawed between gains and losses for most part of the trading session, but managed to close the week in positive and above $5,000 per ounce in the overseas market.“The bullions are passing through a phase of consolidation amid a lack of clarity among traders as they remain divided over the price direction and look for fresh fundamental triggers,” he said.Analysts noted that central bank buying, safe-haven demand amid a sharp sell-off in global technology and AI stocks, and a softer dollar index provided support to bullion prices.However, mixed physical demand from India and China, profit-booking by ETF investors and strong US macroeconomic data capped the upside.Mer said silver also experienced two-way price movements during the week.“The white metal was weighed by corrections in industrial metals and profit-booking after failing to breach key technical resistance. It also faced pressure from the tech-led global equity sell-off, which reduced risk appetite across asset classes,” he added.Analysts said both gold and silver are likely to remain range-bound in the near term as investors await clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory and broader global economic trends.
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Foreign Portfolio Investors put Rs 19,675 crore into Indian equities in early February, ending three months of selling amid global cues and a US-India trade pact.
US-India trade deal hopes lift FPI inflows to Rs 19,675 cr in early Feb
Foreign Portfolio Investors Reverse Trend With Rs 19,675 Crore February Buying: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) made a notable comeback in early February, infusing Rs 19,675 crore into Indian equities during the first half of the month, aided by improving global conditions and the US-India trade agreement.
This marks a clear shift after three consecutive months of net selling. Depository data shows FPIs withdrew Rs 35,962 crore in January, Rs 22,611 crore in December, and Rs 3,765 crore in November.
Even with the renewed buying in February, the broader trend for 2025 remains negative. So far this year, foreign investors have pulled out a net Rs 1.66 lakh crore (USD 18.9 billion) from Indian equities, making it one of the weakest periods for overseas inflows in recent times. Currency volatility, global trade tensions, concerns over potential US tariffs, and elevated valuations had weighed heavily on flows earlier.
Global Cues And Domestic Stability Support Recovery
Himanshu Srivastava, Principal Manager–Research at Morningstar Investment Research India, as quoted by PTI, said the latest inflows were largely driven by easing global macro pressures. Softer US inflation data improved expectations around the interest rate cycle, helping stabilise bond yields and the US dollar. This, in turn, enhanced investor appetite for emerging markets such as India.
On the domestic front, stable inflation, resilient macro indicators, and corporate earnings largely in line with expectations strengthened confidence in India’s economic trajectory, he noted.
Vaqarjaved Khan, Senior Fundamental Analyst at Angel One, also attributed the renewed interest to the US-India trade pact, the growth-oriented Union Budget 2026, easing global trade uncertainties, and steady domestic interest rates.
Volatility Persists Despite Net Buying Days
FPIs were net buyers in seven out of eleven trading sessions in February up to the 13th, turning sellers on four occasions. However, cumulative data indicates a net equity outflow of ₹1,374 crore so far this month.
The divergence was largely due to a sharp sell-off of Rs 7,395 crore on February 13, when the Nifty dropped 336 points. The period also witnessed substantial selling in IT stocks amid the so-called “Anthropic shock.” VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said as quoted by PTI, foreign investors likely reduced exposure to IT stocks aggressively in the cash market, as the IT index fell 8.2 percent in the week ended February 13.
(With PTI Inputs)
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February 15, 2026, 16:54 IST
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Gold, Silver likely to consolidate in coming week amid Fed rate-cut uncertainty: Analysts – The Times of India
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