Business
Shrinking economy takes toll on FTSE 100 amid ‘unsurprising surprise’
The FTSE 100’s early promise faded on Friday amid downbeat economic growth figures and fresh US tech weakness.
The FTSE 100 index closed down 54.1 points, 0.6%, at 9,649.03.
It had earlier traded as high as 9,761.47.
The FTSE 250 ended 24.45 points higher, 0.1%, at 21,876.55, and the AIM All-Share ended up 3.70 points, 0.5%, at 751.36.
For the week, the FTSE 100 fell 0.2%, the FTSE 250 declined 0.9% and the AIM All-Share dropped 0.2%.
The mood was knocked by news that the UK economy shrank in October, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Gross domestic product is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October, the same as in September, missing the FXStreet-cited market consensus for a 0.1% rise.
Services output fell by 0.3%, while construction output fell by 0.6%.
Production output, however, climbed 1.1%.
Citi analyst Callum McLaren-Stewart called the data “an unsurprising surprise”.
“A miss in October is perhaps not the most surprising outcome.
“Pre-budget uncertainty, and particularly the degree of speculation ahead of the event, can likely explain the miss relative to forecasts,” he said.
“For households, the prospect of income tax increases (which was still very much live during October) would likely have put the brakes on consumer spending,” the Citi analyst said, while, on the business side, “the associated lack of clarity around which sectors were to be taxed, will have likely delayed/slowed investment decisions”.
Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishart fears some of the slowdown in the UK economy could be due to underlying issues and not just budget uncertainty.
“We suspect that deteriorating fundamentals rather than a budget-related setback in confidence are to blame, so a recovery seems unlikely in the near term,” Mr Wishart said.
The data was seen as cementing a quarter-point interest rate cut at next week’s Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
“Not that it was in any doubt at all, but today’s data essentially guarantees that the Bank of England will slash rates again next week.
“The focus will instead be on the guidance for rates in 2026.
“Any dovish undertones that hint at further easing ahead could bode ill for the pound,” Ebury analyst Matthew Ryan said.
Mr McLaren-Stewart agrees the data “clearly supports the consensus case for a cut”.
“However, we anticipate the (BoE) will be obliged to cut lower than currently priced in 2026, necessitating a terminal rate below 3%, supported by weaker GDP outlook,” he added.
Sterling fell back after the figures, after rallying in recent days.
The pound was quoted lower at 1.3356 US dollars at the time of the London equities close on Friday, compared to 1.3416 US dollars on Thursday.
The euro stood at 1.1739 US dollars, down against 1.1746 US dollars.
Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 155.69 yen compared to 155.24.
In Europe on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris closed down 0.1%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt ended 0.5% lower.
Stocks in New York were lower at the time of the London equity close.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.7%, the S&P 500 index was 1.4% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.1%.
Technology stocks were firmly in the red once more as Broadcom slid 11% after results failed to match lofty expectations, while Oracle fell a further 4.6%.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.19%, stretched from 4.12% on Thursday.
The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was at 4.86%, widened from 4.77%.
Supporting the dollar and pushing yields higher, comments from two officials who voted against the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates this week.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee had joined Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid in pushing to keep rates unchanged instead at the central bank’s two-day policy meeting, which ended on Wednesday.
“I believe we should have waited to get more data, especially about inflation, before lowering rates further,” said Mr Goolsbee in a statement Friday.
In a separate statement, Mr Schmid, who also pushed for no rate cut at the Fed’s October meeting, said: “Right now, I see an economy that is showing momentum and inflation that is too hot, suggesting that policy is not overly restrictive.”
In addition, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she would prefer interest rates to be slightly more restrictive to keep putting pressure on inflation, which is still running too high.
Back in London, InterContinental Hotels Group rose 2.3% as Jefferies upgraded to “buy” from “hold”‘, but Whitbread dropped 2.2% as the broker moved the Premier Inn owner the other way, to “hold” from “buy”.
Elsewhere, 1Spatial soared 45% after agreeing in principle to a proposed £87.1 million offer from VertiGIS, a portfolio company of London-based private equity firm Battery Ventures.
The Cambridge, England-based location master data management software company said the cash bid would value each 1Spatial share at 73 pence.
VertiGIS confirmed that it has completed commercial due diligence, has a clear understanding of the 1Spatial business and requires only limited confirmatory diligence to proceed to making a firm offer.
But Card Factory plummeted 27% after cutting its profit guidance as it said weak high-street retail footfall hurt its UK store sales performance.
The Wakefield, England-based greeting cards, gifts and celebration merchandise retailer said it expects adjusted pretax profit of between £55 million and £60 million for financial 2026, which ends on January 31, if current trading trends persist.
This is lower than the company’s previous guidance, which was for mid-to-high single-digit-percentage growth in adjusted pretax profit from £66.0 million in financial 2025, roughly £70 million.
Card Factory attributed weak consumer confidence to the lower high street footfall, which has persisted into its “most important” trading period.
Brent oil was quoted at 61.30 dollars a barrel at the time of the London equities close on Friday, up from 60.91 late on Thursday.
Gold was quoted at 4,291.08 dollars an ounce on Friday, higher against 4,254.97.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Burberry, up 54.50 pence at 1272.5p, Ashtead Group, up 128.0p at 5,138.0p, BT Group, up 3.7p at 180.5p, Intercontinental Hotels Group, up 185.0p at 10,235.0p and Fresnillo, up 46.0p at 2,904.0p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were St James’s Place, down 49.0p at 1,316.5p, British American Tobacco, down 146.0p at 4,238.0p, Anglo American, down 80.0p at 2,817.0p, Weir, down 80.0p at 2,856.0p and Imperial Brands, down 86.0p at 3,179.0p.
Monday’s economic calendar has CPI figures in Canada.
Later in the week, interest rate decisions are due in Europe, Japan and the UK. In addition, US nonfarm payrolls figures will be released, plus UK and US inflation and retail sales data.
Next week’s UK corporate calendar has delayed full-year results from travel retailer WH Smith and half-year numbers from electricals retailer Currys.
Contributed by Alliance News.
Business
Gold and silver sell-off gathers steam in correction after record highs
Gold and silver prices have continued to drop sharply in a “brutal” sell-off after hitting record highs in recent weeks.
The precious metals began falling on Friday in response to US President Donald Trump’s nomination for the incoming chairman of the Federal Reserve.
His choice for former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace current chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May soothed some investor nerves, which boosted the US dollar but saw appetite for safe-haven investments gold and silver slump in response.
Gold and silver suffered their worst trading days for decades on Friday and were down heavily again on Monday, with spot prices off by another 7% and 11% respectively at one stage.
Silver had plunged by nearly 30% on Friday and gold dropped over 9% in its worst one-day drop since 1983.
Gold and silver had been enjoying a record breaking rally as investors sought refuge amid global geopolitical uncertainty, conflict and tariff woes.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said: “The sell-off has been far more brutal than I, and many, expected.”
He added: “For silver, the rally on the way up was faster than gold’s, so the correction on the way down is faster too.”
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, added: “If the sell off continues, then gold and silver are at risk of eroding their losses for the year so far.
“The historic move lower in silver prices has not stemmed a fall at the start of this week.
“Traders have not yet found a level that they are happy to buy the dips, and the timing of Chinese Lunar New Year in mid-February could accelerate the sell off, as Chinese traders reduce risk ahead of the holiday.”
UK and US stock markets are expected to open in the red on Monday, as the gold and silver rout has a knock on effect on mining giants, while Brent oil was also 5% lower.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Mining stocks are likely to feel the heat as metal prices scramble to find a floor.
“Oil prices are also trending the wrong way for investors in commodity-focused companies.”
Business
Budget’s mild fiscal consolidation to be positive for GDP growth: Report
Mumbai: Lower revenue as a share of GDP has been more than offset by cuts to subsidies and spending on current schemes, leading to the smallest fiscal consolidation in six years, likely positive for growth, a new report has said.
The fiscal consolidation for FY27 is the slowest in six years. And the budgeted disinvestment, which is a below-the-line funding item, is likely to see the highest rise in six years, the report from HSBC Global Investment Research said.
“The central government continues with fiscal consolidation, though signing up for a gentler path for FY27; the fiscal impulse will likely turn neutral after several years in the negative, and this should be good news for GDP growth,” the research firm added.
The report said that the services sector was the focus of the Budget, “with ambitious plans and increased outlays for medical institutions, universities, tourism, sports facilities, and the creative economy.”
Urban infrastructure saw a renewed push with each City Economic Region (CER) set to receive get Rs 50 billion over 5 years.
Seven new high-speed rail corridors will connect major cities, the report noted, adding large cities will also get an incentive of Rs 1 billion if they issue municipal bonds worth more than Rs 10 billion.
The report highlighted policy priorities, saying, “new manufacturing sectors were given incentives, namely biopharma, semiconductors, electronic components, rare earth corridors, chemical parks, container manufacturing, and high-tech tool rooms.”
Direct taxes are expected to grow faster than nominal GDP while indirect taxes will expand more slowly, with gross tax revenues budgeted to rise about 8 per cent year‑on‑year, the report said.
Central government set a fiscal deficit target of 4.3 per cent of GDP for FY27 after a 4.4 per cent estimate for FY26, and nominal GDP growth was pegged at 10 per cent.
Business
India’s $5 trillion economy push: How ‘C+1’ strategy could turn country into world’s factory
New Delhi: India is preparing for a major economic transformation. The Union Budget 2026-27 lays out measures that could make the country the top choice for global manufacturing using the popular ‘China +1’ (C+1) strategy. This comes as international companies rethink supply chains after COVID-19 disruptions, rising trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
India has positioned itself as the backup factory for the world that is ready to absorb international demand in case of any crisis in China or Taiwan.
The government has offered tax breaks for cell phone, laptop, and semiconductor makers, making India more attractive to foreign investors. Reducing bureaucratic hurdles for global firms, the budget also strengthens the National Single Window System to simplify business procedures. The message is clear: India is ready to step in as a global manufacturing hub, ensuring supply continuity for the world.
The expressway to a $5 trillion economy
China presently dominates about 40% of global manufacturing. Its factories supply critical products worldwide, but 2026 is expected to be a turning point. Expanding influence and economic opacity have made global companies seek alternatives.
India has leveraged this moment, offering a comprehensive incentive package for foreign manufacturers. Analysts call it more than policy; it is a blueprint to become a $5 trillion economy and reclaim India’s historic position as a global industrial leader.
Why the world needs India now
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the dangers of over-reliance on a single supplier. When China halted medical exports, nations realised the need for diversified supply chains. Major companies such as Apple and Samsung now see India as a dependable alternative.
China’s aging workforce and rising labour costs further enhance India’s appeal. With 65% of its population under 35, India offers a vast, skilled and affordable workforce for decades. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Taiwan, which produces 90% of advanced chips, has also created demand for a secure manufacturing backup. India is stepping in to fill that gap.
How India stands to gain from China’s challenges
India’s budget, 2026-27, slashes import duties on cell phone and laptop components, turning the country into a hub for component manufacturing, not just assembly. Electronics exports are projected to cross $120 billion by 2025.
The government has also launched a Rs 1.5 lakh crore semiconductor mission, attracting companies like Tata and Micron to establish advanced chip plants in India. In the chemical sector, stricter environmental regulations in China have shut down several plants, benefiting Indian companies such as Privi Specialty and Aarti Industries, which are now filling gaps in global supply chains.
Incentives for companies
The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme promises cash rewards for output, covering over 14 sectors. This is India’s answer to Chinese subsidies. From land acquisition to electricity connections, the National Single Window System now enables businesses to clear all approvals through a single portal.
Infrastructure investment has also received a massive boost, with Rs 11.11 lakh crore allocated under PM GatiShakti. New ports and dedicated freight corridors are being built to ensure that exports from India reach the world faster and cheaper than ever before.
India’s moves points to a strategic shift in global manufacturing. By rolling out the red carpet for foreign companies and investing heavily in infrastructure, technology and policy reforms, the country is poised to become the go-to destination for global supply chains. The C+1 formula is not only a concept; it is a roadmap to turn India into the next industrial superpower and a $5 trillion economy.
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