No. 12 High Point put everyone on notice for the second time in as many games this March Madness, but could not find the same success.

After advancing to the Round of 32 following an upset victory over No. 5 Wisconsin, the Panthers’ season ended after No. 4 Arkansas ran away from them late Saturday night.

High Point led by as many as five early in the game, and they were up 56-52 with 14:17 to go after going on a 12-2 run. 

Both teams exchanged buckets for several minutes, with no one expanding their respective leads by more than three points for a little while.

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With 7:04 to play, the Panthers took a 72-71 lead, to which the Razorbacks responded with a 10-2 run, putting them up by seven and giving them their largest lead of the night.

The game was then quickly tied at 83 after a wild run by High Point, but over the final 3:19, Arkansas outscored High Point, 11-5, to snatch the victory, despite a valiant effort from the Panthers.

High Point Panthers forward Terry Anderson (5) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks forward Malique Ewin (12) and forward Billy Richmond III (24) in the second half during a second round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. (Craig Strobeck/Imagn Images)

VANDERBILT’S HAIL MARY SHOT MISSES BY NARROWEST OF MARGINS AS NEBRASKA ADVANCES TO SWEET 16 IN EPIC FASHION

Arkansas was favored by 11.5, and while they couldn’t cover, it was another Sweet 16 appearance for legendary head coach John Calipari.

Two Panthers, Rob Martin (30) and Cam’Ron Fletcher (25), combined for 55 points, but Darius Acuff Jr. of Arkansas trumped everyone by dropping 36.

Arkansas will face the winner of No. 1 Arizona and No. 9 Utah State in the Sweet 16.

High Point Panthers head coach Flynn Clayman and forward Braden Hausen (15) react in the second half against the Arkansas Razorbacks during a second round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. (Craig Strobeck/Imagn Images)

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High Point’s victory over Wisconsin on Thursday marked their first ever in March Madness after making the tournament last year for the first time.

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The 2026 men’s basketball tournament rolls into the second round Saturday with some giant matchups. Which are the games to bet on?

Throughout the tourney, I will provide my best bets for each round as well as my picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.

Saturday’s picks went 2-0, with Mark predicting Michigan State to cover and Duke to reach the over on their team total.

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of Friday’s publication and subject to change.

Sunday’s best bets

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of Saturday’s publication and subject to change.

(1) Arizona -11.5 (-110) vs. (9) Utah State
Game time: 7:50 p.m. ET (truTV)

The Wildcats were beyond impressive against Long Island, dominating both offensively and defensively. Utah State, on the other hand, needed to shoot 55% from the field — combined with Villanova scoring just three total points over the last 6:04 of the game — to steal a come-from-behind win in its first game. What stands out to me here is that this line feels short. Arizona was laying this same 11.5 to BYU, a better team in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, which says a lot. The Wildcats were also favored by 9.5 over Kansas, which is 21st in adjusted efficiency margin. Add in the Aggies’ poor 3-point shooting defense (214th in the nation), and Arizona should overwhelm them over the course of 40 minutes.

(7) Kentucky vs. (2) Iowa State OVER 145.5 (-110)
Game time: 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS)

Kentucky needed overtime to escape Santa Clara, and Iowa State won easily over Tennessee State but likely lost All-American forward Joshua Jefferson in the process. Even without Jefferson, I still like the Iowa State offense here. The Cyclones are excellent from 3-point range, making 38.9% from beyond the arc, and I don’t see Kentucky being able to slow them down. Santa Clara shot 41% from the field and still managed to score 73 points in regulation against the Wildcats.

Led by Otega Oweh, who is coming off a 35-point performance, Kentucky will use its pace and size to score. And while the Cyclones don’t play fast overall on offense, they average just 16.6 seconds per offensive possession, which is 68th in the country. Kentucky will do the rest on offense here. If these teams shoot to their season average, they should get over this number.

Sunday’s Eliminator pick

Iowa State

The Cyclones are a question mark as we go forward because of Jefferson’s injury status, so it’s best to use them now. If they get deeper, the possible loss of Jefferson would loom even larger. Plus, I don’t see Iowa State coming out of this bracket.

How to play ESPN Eliminator Challenge.

Saturday’s best bets in review

Best bets

(3) Michigan State -4.5 (-112) vs. (6) Louisville
Game time: 2:45 p.m. ET

The Spartans’ defense is the key here. Offensively, I don’t expect Michigan State to duplicate its 59% shooting from the field recorded against North Dakota State. But the Spartans’ defense will be equally menacing. It should be no surprise that Louisville shot 54% from the field and 52% from the 3-point range, but that won’t be the case against the Spartans’ D, which is 13th in adjusted efficiency. Louisville has played against a team in the top 20 in defensive efficiency six times this season and it has lost five times, with the only win coming over offensively inept Cincinnati. The Cardinals almost blew a 23-point lead in the second half. I’ll play against the 3-point variance of Louisville here and back the Spartans.

(1) Duke team total OVER 75.5 (-125) vs. (9) TCU
Game time: 5:15 p.m. ET

Duke survived a major scare from 16-seed Siena to advance. Duke also put forth it’s fourth-lowest shooting percentage from the field this season and its worst 3-point shooting percentage (19%) against the Saints. That will normalize and regress to the mean against TCU. The Horned Frogs are not a great D in terms of opposing shooting percentage, ranking 154th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Blue Devils should also feast inside as the more dominant rebounding team. TCU goes fast on offense, averaging just 16.7 second per possession, which is 75th in the nation. If the Horned Frogs are scoring, it will force Duke to continue pushing the pace. After a disappointing performance in the round of 64, I expect a focused effort from Duke on the offensive end.

Eliminator pick

Vanderbilt

The Commodores’ elite shooting and inside presence are worth backing. It’s telling that the lower-seeded team is favored here. I’m also willing to play against Nebraska’s 3-point variance and the high of its first-ever NCAA tournament win.

How to play ESPN Eliminator Challenge

Which teams are moving on to the Sweet 16?

ESPN reporters across the country are recapping how each second-round game is decided Saturday.

How Nebraska won: Until Thursday, Nebraska had never won a single NCAA tournament game. Two days later, thanks to Braden Frager‘s layup with 2.2 seconds left, the Cornhuskers are Sweet 16-bound. They traded blows with Vandy until the very end, even surviving a buzzer-beating heave from beyond halfcourt by Tyler Tanner that ricocheted into the rim and then popped out to seal the victory in front of a deafening, raucous arena packed to the brim with Nebraska fans. The Huskers muscled their way to the second weekend of the tournament with a balanced scoring attack with four players in double figures, including 15 each from Frager and Pryce Sandfort. Nebraska controlled the paint, outscoring Vanderbilt 38-22 down low while shooting 56% from the floor. — Brooke Pryor

Illinois’ Sweet 16 opponent: Winner of (1) Florida vs. (9) Iowa

How the Cornhuskers can advance to Elite Eight: Nebraska picked up its first NCAA tournament win in program history on Thursday, then doubled its total in drama-filled fashion on Saturday. What will the Cornhuskers need to do to win a third — likely against Florida? Their success this season has been primarily predicated on two factors: 3-point shooting and defense. They rank top-15 nationally in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points generated off 3-pointers. They have four players who made 50 or more 3s this season, and they’ll likely have to make double-digit 3s to win next week. Nebraska was No. 1 in the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to below 30% from 3-point range and forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of possessions. — Jeff Borzello

How Illinois won: Another potential Cinderella saw its glass slipper shattered, as VCU’s run came to an end at the hands of a dominant Illinois team. Andrej Stojakovic had 21 points to lead the Illini, who turned a two-point deficit with 3:09 to go in the first half into an easy win, outscoring the Rams by 23 over the final 23 minutes. Zvonimir Ivisic stole the show with a monster dunk in the second half that signaled an unofficial end to VCU’s hopes; he finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds. — David Hale

Illinois’ Sweet 16 opponent: Houston

How the Fighting Illini can advance to Elite Eight: After Illinois got off to a 14-5 start against VCU, it seemed as if the Illini might enter halftime with a substantial edge, but the Rams slowed the game down and upped their defensive pressure to enter the break down just seven points. Ten minutes of regulation later, however, VCU trailed by 22 points and seemed to know its Sweet 16 dreams had been deferred. That’s how quickly the game can turn against Illinois, which owns the best offense in America. That’s the Illini’s advantage against a Houston team prone to extensive scoring droughts.

They already have wins over Tennessee and Nebraska, both top-15 defenses nationally. Yet, Houston and its pressure are unique. Illinois will hit difficult offensive stretches against the Cougars. Illinois has proven that it never stays cold, though. When the shots stop falling for Houston, as they have multiple times this season, Illinois will advance if it capitalizes with its impeccable offense to extend a lead. Houston isn’t built for comebacks. Illinois is equipped to widen the gap against its opponents. Whenever that opportunity arises against the Cougars, the Illini have to seize it. — Myron Medcalf

How Texas won: With 2:31 to go in regulation, Longhorns guard Jordan Pope hit a clutch 3-pointer from the top of the key, a shot that proved to be the difference-maker in Texas’ upset victory over Gonzaga. The Longhorns were held scoreless for two minutes after Pope’s basket. Camden Heide ended the drought with a 3-pointer, and Matas Vokietaitis‘ transition layup secured the win. Pope and Vokietaitis led Texas in scoring with 17 points each. For Gonzaga, Graham Ike led the game with 25 points. Texas has 11 NCAA tournament wins as a double-digit seed, the most of any program since seeding began in 1979. — Ryan McFadden

Texas’ Sweet 16 opponent: Winner of (2) Purdue vs. (7) Miami

How the Longhorns can advance to Elite Eight: Texas is suddenly one of the hottest teams in the field, winning three games in five days to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16. Sean Miller has made Matas Vokietaitis a focal point on the offensive end, and the Lithuanian native responded by averaging 20.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in his last two NCAA tournament games. Over his last 12 games, Vokietaitis is now averaging 17.6 points and 8.1 rebounds. Both Purdue and Miami have the size to cause issues for the 7-foot-1 big man, so he will have to continue his terrific run of form. The Longhorns also have to continue their defensive resurgence, which has truly come out of nowhere after ranking No. 159 in adjusted defensive efficiency in their final six games entering the NCAA tournament. They’re allowing just 1.03 points per possession in three tournament games. — Myron Medcalf

How Houston won: The last time Houston and Texas A&M met in the NCAA tournament (second round in 2024), the Cougars outlasted the Aggies in a high-flying classic in which the two teams combined for 195 points. This time, though, Houston won convincingly — thanks in large part to a 19-4 run that occurred after Texas A&M cut the Cougars’ lead to one point with 7:40 left in the first half.

Though Kelvin Sampson has lamented his team’s inexperience at times, Cougars freshman Chris Cenac Jr. continued to play well, finishing with 17 points and nine rebounds, as they outrebounded the Aggies 46-29. Freshman point guard Kingston Flemings unsurprisingly played a mature, balanced game with nine points, five rebounds, four assists and one turnover. And Big 12 all-defensive selection Emanuel Sharp put together a complete performance with a game-high 18 points, helping force the Aggies into 11 turnovers and just 35% shooting from the floor. — Brooke Pryor

Houston’s Sweet 16 opponent: Illinois

How the Cougars can advance to Elite Eight: Their defensive strength is their advantage when they force opponents to play the way they want to play: Methodical and measured. Texas A&M entered its second-round matchup against Houston having played one of the fastest tempos in America, but the Cougars locked the Aggies into a 65-possession affair and recorded a subpar 87 points per 100 possessions. Houston will have to deploy the same method against Illinois.

Yes, Kelvin Sampson will need efficient efforts from star guards Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp. And Joseph Tugler, last season’s Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, has spent the last portion of his campaign as an emerging offensive threat. But to beat the best offense in the country, Houston will have to utilize the same gritty style that’s anchored its current 7-1 streak in its last eight games. One of the best defensive units in America will have to gain the edge against an Illinois team that can turn a trickle of shots into a fire hose. Houston’s defensive strengths will have to be the difference against Brad Underwood’s squad. — Myron Medcalf

(1) Duke 81, (9) TCU 58

How Duke won: It was the tale of two halves for Cameron Boozer. In the first: two points, 0-for-1 from the field and a plus-5 in 15 minutes on the court. In the second? Seventeen points on 7-of-9 shooting and a plus-20 in 19 minutes. TCU did a nice job early of denying his shots by playing a physical, attacking style underneath. But after Xavier Edmonds, Tanner Toolson and Liutauras Lelevicius all landed in serious foul trouble, things opened up for Duke’s superstar. The end result was a dominant second half in which the Blue Devils, after falling behind by two points with 16:15 to play, outscored the Horned Frogs 43-18 the rest of the way, finishing with a blowout victory to advance to the Sweet 16. — David Hale

Duke’s Sweet 16 opponent: Winner of (4) Kansas vs. (5) St. John’s

How the Blue Devils can advance to Elite Eight: Duke has two areas of advantage on every team in college basketball: its defense and having Cameron Boozer. When the Blue Devils turned up the heat defensively against TCU and began playing through Boozer on the offensive end, they began to dominate the Horned Frogs and completely changed the game. Boozer is the most productive player on the floor every time he plays, although it will be interesting to see if either Kansas’ Flory Bidunga or St. John’s Zuby Ejiofor could slow him down. Duke’s defense, the top-ranked unit in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, has very few weaknesses, and neither the Jayhawks nor Red Storm are built in the ideal fashion to cause consistent problems for the Blue Devils. — Jeff Borzello

How Michigan State won: Jeremy Fears Jr. cemented his place in Michigan State history as the Spartans marched on to the Sweet 16 with a win over Louisville. With his 16 assists, Fears became the first Big Ten player in the last 50 years with 27 dishes over a two-game NCAA tournament span, passing Michigan State’s Magic Johnson (25 in the 1979 Sweet 16 and Elite Eight). Fears’ 16 assists also is the most by a Big Ten player in an NCAA tournament game in the last 50 years.

Forward Coen Carr also played a significant role in the win, recording his first career double-double (21 points and 10 rebounds). He joins Carson Cooper, who had 20 points and 10 rebounds against North Dakota State in the first round, to become the first Michigan State duo with 20-point double-doubles in an NCAA tournament since 1979 (Johnson and Greg Kelser).

The absence of guard Mikel Brown Jr. caught up to Louisville as Michigan State was able to limit the Cardinals’ offense, which had averaged 79 points per game without him (41.3% from the field). Louisville also sent Michigan State to the foul line a significant amount, with the Spartans making 14 of 19 (Cardinals were 4-of-6 from line). — Alaina Getzenberg

Michigan State’s Sweet 16 opponent: Winner of (2) UConn vs. (7) UCLA

How the Spartans can advance to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate the most headlines during the NCAA tournament, but coaching matchups are equally — if not more — impactful. Over the course of a head coaching tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo developed an uncanny ability to zero-in on an opposing team’s top players and create problems for them. That’s the Spartans’ ticket to another Elite Eight appearance.

Izzo is a master of removing the cape draped over the shoulders of NCAA tournament heroes. In the second round, J’Vonne Hadley and Isaac McKneely — who have both averaged double figures for Louisville — to a combined 4 for 17 clip. Last month, Purdue’s Braden Smith went 4-for-10 with four turnovers in a loss to Michigan State. Way back in November, Denzel Aberdeen and SEC Preseason Player of the Year Otega Oweh were a combined 5-for-20 in Kentucky’s loss to Michigan State. And Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr.? He went 5-for-16 against the Spartans in a loss early this season. Izzo, a man with few hobbies, is going to spend the days ahead devouring film, preparing to turn an opposing star into a bystander. Because that’s what he’s done best both this season and throughout his career. That’s also why he’s reached the Final Four eight times. — Myron Medcalf

How Michigan won: Led by Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan pulled away in the second half of its game against Saint Louis to advance to its 16th Sweet 16 with a 95-72 win. While the Billikens kept up with the Wolverines in the first half and early in the second, Michigan’s shooting (55.7% from the field) and defense forced Saint Louis to take a significant number of 3s, but it struggled to make them fall, going 10-for-32 from deep. Billikens center Robbie Avila went 3-for-10 from the perimeter but had five assists and left the court to “Robbie” cheers.

The Wolverines had nine blocks, their most in an NCAA tournament game since blocks were first tracked in 1985-86, and outrebounded the Billikens 42-27. Lendeborg scored 25 points and became the first Michigan player with 25-plus points and no turnovers in an NCAA tournament game since Glen Rice (1989). Michigan is now the first Big Ten team to record back-to-back NCAA tournament games with 90-plus points since title-winning 1989 Michigan. — Alaina Getzenberg

Michigan’s Sweet 16 opponent: Winner of (4) Alabama vs. (5) Texas Tech

How the Wolverines can advance to Elite Eight: When Michigan leans into its strengths — its frontcourt, size and ability to dominate the paint at both ends of the floor — there are few teams in the country capable of competing with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Aday Mara is a force at the rim defensively, and is becoming a more consistent option on offense, while Yaxel Lendeborg has shown he can take over games on offense. Neither Alabama nor Texas Tech has the skill and talent up front to match Michigan. The other key for the Wolverines against either team will be whether Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett can slow down All-Americans Christian Anderson of Texas Tech or Labaron Philon Jr. of Alabama. — Jeff Borzello