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Sri Lanka targets lower debt ratio with new budget: Fitch

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Sri Lanka targets lower debt ratio with new budget: Fitch



Sri Lanka’s latest budget signals a continued commitment to fiscal consolidation, with authorities aiming to reduce government debt relative to the gross domestic product (GDP) after outperforming targets set for 2025, according to Fitch Ratings. Strong and sustained revenue performance remains central to achieving these goals.

The recently presented budget projected a fiscal deficit of 5.1 per cent of GDP in 2026—higher than the 4.5 per cent expected in 2025 but well below the originally budgeted 6.7 per cent for 2025. The IMF later revised the 2025 deficit projection to 5.4 per cent. The primary surplus is estimated at 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2026, down from 3.8 per cent expected in 2025 but still above the 2.3 per cent target under Sri Lanka’s IMF programme. The government aims to narrow the deficit to 3.8 per cent of GDP by 2030.

Fitch noted that while the 2026 deficit estimate is wider than its own forecast of 4.6 per cent, the effect on debt dynamics could be mitigated by the stronger-than-expected 2025 performance, when the agency anticipated a 5.4 per cent deficit and a 2.4 per cent primary surplus. Staying aligned with IMF fiscal benchmarks would strengthen policymaking credibility and reinforce macroeconomic stability.

Sri Lanka’s new budget reinforces its focus on fiscal consolidation, targeting a 5.1 per cent deficit in 2026 and maintaining a primary surplus above IMF requirement.
Fitch said stronger-than-expected 2025 results may offset a wider 2026 gap.
Revenue/GDP is set to ease slightly.
Growth-supportive measures continue, but high debt and post-2027 obligations remain key concerns.

Government revenue/GDP is expected to ease to 15.4 per cent in 2026 from 15.9 per cent in 2025, still slightly above Fitch’s 2026 projection. A failure to keep tax revenue growth broadly in line with GDP growth could add pressure to Sri Lanka’s credit profile.

The budget assumes a 1.2 per cent fall in trade taxes after this year’s surge in vehicle imports, while goods and services taxes are projected to rise 3.5 per cent and income taxes 8 per cent. Fitch described the goods and services tax estimate as conservative, given expected nominal GDP growth of over 7 per cent and new tax-enhancing measures such as a lower VAT registration threshold and strengthened auditing.

Unexpectedly strong import growth could further boost revenue but also strain external balances. The 2025 fiscal overperformance was partly driven by underspending, with public investment reaching only 3.2 per cent of GDP compared with the planned 4 per cent. Persistent shortfalls in capital spending could hinder long-term growth and complicate fiscal consolidation.

Even so, the budget outlines several growth-supportive initiatives, including the revival of Colombo airport’s expansion, a LKR 342 billion (~$1.13 billion) allocation for road development, tax incentives for digital infrastructure, and planned legislation to expand public-private partnerships in infrastructure.

Fitch expects gross general government debt/GDP to decline from 100.5 per cent in 2024 to around 96 per cent in 2027—still well above the median 74 per cent for ‘CCC’ rated sovereigns. The end of the IMF programme in 2027 and higher debt-servicing obligations from 2028 pose additional medium-term risks.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)



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South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand

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South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand



In the Mumbai market, cotton yarn prices remained unchanged as the loom sector slowed production. Although spinning mills are looking to raise their selling rates, they have not found sufficient demand. A Mumbai-based trader told Fibre*Fashion, “Power and auto looms are facing limited fabric buying from the garment industry. Export prospects are still unclear. Domestic demand is also insufficient to support any price rise. Mills are comfortable with falling cotton prices, while buyers remain silent on yarn purchases.”

In Mumbai, ** carded yarn of warp and weft varieties were traded at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.**) and ****;*,****,*** per * kg (~$**.****.**) (excluding GST), respectively. Other prices include ** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, ** carded weft at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.** per *.* kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg and **/** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, according to trade sources.



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Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India

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Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India



The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding, which could allow near zero-tariff access for Bangladeshi garments to the American market subject to specific riders, has triggered debate within India’s textile and apparel industry. The real gains from zero tariffs may be limited due to high freight costs, longer lead times, and insufficient capacity in Bangladesh’s spinning and weaving/knitting sectors.

Bangladesh is already among the top suppliers of apparel to the US, particularly in basic knit and woven categories such as T-shirts, trousers and sweaters. A tariff advantage, even if modest, could sharpen its price competitiveness in high-volume, price-sensitive segments dominated by mass retailers.

The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding offering near zero-tariff access for garments has sparked debate in India’s textile sector.
While Bangladesh may gain a price edge in basic apparel, industry leaders believe the effective advantage could be limited to 2–3 per cent due to raw material dependence, capacity constraints and logistics costs.

However, Indian industry leaders argue that the net gain for Bangladesh may be restricted to around 2–3 per cent in effective competitiveness. They point to structural constraints, including Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials. A significant share of its fabric and yarn requirements is sourced from China and India, limiting flexibility in rules-of-origin compliance if strict value-addition conditions are attached to the deal.

Capacity limitations in spinning, weaving and man-made fibre processing are also seen as bottlenecks. While Bangladesh has built scale in garmenting, its upstream integration remains narrower than India’s diversified fibre-to-fashion base. Indian exporters emphasise that integrated supply chains offer advantages in speed, customisation and smaller batch production.

Logistics and lead times may further temper expectations. Distance from major US ports, coupled with infrastructure pressures and global shipping volatility, could offset part of the tariff benefit. In contrast, Indian suppliers have been investing in port connectivity, digital compliance systems and flexible production models to strengthen reliability.

Industry representatives also highlight that US buyers are increasingly factoring in sustainability, traceability and geopolitical risk. India’s growing adoption of renewable energy in textile clusters, compliance with global standards and broader product depth may help it retain strategic sourcing partnerships.

While some diversion of orders in basic categories cannot be ruled out, exporters believe the overall impact will be incremental rather than disruptive. The consensus view is that tariff preference alone is unlikely to override considerations of scale, compliance, diversification and long-term supply-chain resilience.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)



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US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole

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US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole



United States (US) Senator Bill Cassidy, along with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, have introduced the ‘Last Sale Valuation Act,’ legislation aimed at closing a long-standing customs loophole that allows importers to underpay duties by declaring goods at artificially low values. The act would require tariffs to be assessed on the final sale value of imported goods rather than earlier transactions in complex overseas supply chains.

“This bill protects Louisiana workers and American businesses, ensuring loopholes don’t hold them back,” Dr Cassidy said in a press release.

US Senators Bill Cassidy and Sheldon Whitehouse have introduced the Last Sale Valuation Act to close the ‘first sale’ customs loophole that lets importers underpay duties.
The bipartisan bill would base tariffs on final sale values, strengthen US Customs enforcement and curb duty evasion.
Supporters say it will protect American manufacturers, workers and federal revenue.

If passed, the bipartisan measure would grant clearer enforcement authority to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), streamline valuation reviews and reduce disputes over documentation, while curbing mis-invoicing and related-party pricing schemes linked to tariff evasion and illicit financial activity.

The legislation has drawn support from the American Compass, the Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Southern Shrimp Alliance.

“Cassidy’s ‘Last Sale Valuation Act’ strengthens customs valuation by assessing duties on the final transaction value of goods entering the US,” said Mark A DiPlacido, senior political economist at the American Compass, adding that closing the judicially created ‘first sale’ loophole would reduce duty evasion, simplify enforcement and increase customs revenue.

Jon Toomey, president of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, said the bill is “an important first step in restoring customs integrity,” ensuring duties are paid on the true commercial value of imported goods and helping level the playing field for American manufacturers and workers.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)



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