Business
Stock market outlook: How will Nifty50, BSE Sensex react to US Fed chair Powell’s rate cut hints? What analysts say – Times of India
Indian equity benchmark indices, Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, are expected to see a gap-up opening on Monday after US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank may cut rates in its September policy review.Analysts suggest that domestic equity markets may respond positively to signals of a possible US Federal Reserve rate reduction, whilst investors remain watchful of the approaching deadline for supplementary US tariffs on Indian products in the upcoming shortened trading week. Favourable international indicators may offer backing, following substantial gains in US markets and weakening of the dollar index after Powell signalled possible rate reductions during his Jackson Hole Symposium address, analysts say.Additionally, market movements during the week will be influenced by foreign investor activities, international market developments and scheduled economic data releases such as GDP growth numbers.Last week witnessed the BSE benchmark advancing by 709.19 points or 0.87%, whilst the Nifty registered gains of 238.8 points or 0.96%.
What Fed’s Powell indicated on rate cut
Jerome Powell suggested on Friday that interest rates might be reduced during the September central bank meeting. He adopted a careful approach, avoiding definite promises about rate cuts. His statement recognised growing worries about jobs whilst noting ongoing inflation concerns.“While the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising, and if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment,” Powell said.“At the same time, GDP growth has slowed, notably in the first half of this year, to a pace of 1.2%, roughly half the 2.5% pace in 2024. The decline in growth has largely reflected a slowdown in consumer spending, as with the labor market. Some of the slowing in GDP likely reflects slower growth of supply or potential output.“We continue to believe that monetary policy must be forward looking and consider the lags its effects on the economy. For this reason, our policy actions depend on the economic outlook and the balance of risks to that outlook,” he said.
How will Indian stock markets react?
According to Sunny Agrawal, Head – Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, Indian stock markets are expected to react positively on Monday. “Powell indicates conditions ‘may warrant’ interest rate cuts as the situation suggests downside risks to employment rising. This is likely to put pressure on the dollar and augur well for riskier asset classes – EMs like India and commodities. Metals and IT stocks are likely to react positively in the trade on Monday,” Agarwal told TOI.Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited said the stock market’s upside may be muted to US President Donald Trump’s lingering tariffs.“Fed chief Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole indicates a rate cut in September. His remark that ‘there is a downside risk to unemployment and shifting risk balance may warrant policy adjustment’ clearly indicates a rate cut in September. The US markets have responded with rise in stock prices and decline in bond yields. The Indian market, too, may respond positively on Monday, but here tariff concerns are likely to weigh on markets more,” he told TOI.Siddhartha Khemka, who leads Research at the Wealth Management division of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, “We expect Indian equities to remain supported by optimism around GST 2.0 reforms and domestic macro strength. Globally, clarity on US tariff actions against India and upcoming GDP data from both India and the US will shape investor sentiment”.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs
BP has warned it expects to book up to five billion dollars (£3.7 billion) in write-downs across its gas and low-carbon energy division as it also said oil trading had been weak in its final quarter.
The oil giant joined FTSE 100 rival Shell, after it also last week cautioned over a weaker performance from trading, which comes amid a drop in the cost of crude.
BP said Brent crude prices averaged 63.73 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of last year compared with 69.13 dollars a barrel in the previous three months.
Oil prices have slumped in recent weeks, partly driven lower due to US President Donald Trump’s move to oust and detain Venezuela’s leader and lay claim to crude in the region, leading to fears of a supply glut.
In its update ahead of full-year results, BP also said it expects to book a four billion dollar (£3 billion) to five billion dollar (£3.7 billion) impairment in its so-called transition businesses, largely relating to its gas and low-carbon energy division.
But it said further progress had been made in slashing debts, with its net debt falling to between 22 billion and 23 billion dollars (£16.4 billion to £17.1 billion) at the end of 2025, down from 26.1 billion dollars (£19.4 billion) at the end of September.
It comes after the firm’s surprise move last month to appoint Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its new chief executive as Murray Auchincloss stepped down after less than two years in the role.
Ms O’Neill will start in the role on April 1, with Carol Howle, current executive vice president of supply, trading and shipping at BP, acting as chief executive on an interim basis until the new boss joins.
Ms O’Neill’s appointment has made history as she will become the first woman to run BP – and also the first to head up a top five global oil company – as well as being the first ever outsider to take on the post at BP.
Shares in BP fell 1% in morning trading on Wednesday after the latest update.
Business
Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India
Real estate developers in Kolkata have urged the Centre to use the Union Budget to recalibrate housing policies to reflect rising land and construction costs, calling for higher tax benefits for homebuyers and a long-pending revision of the affordable housing definition to revive demand, especially in the mid-income segment, PTI reported.With the Budget set to be tabled on February 1, industry players said measures such as revisiting price caps for affordable homes, rationalising GST on under-construction properties and easing approval processes could significantly improve affordability and sales momentum.Sushil Mohta, president of CREDAI West Bengal and chairman of Merlin Group, said reforms must align with current market realities. “Revisiting the affordable housing definition, rationalising housing loan interest deductions and streamlining GST rates will significantly improve affordability and demand, especially for middle-income homebuyers,” he told PTI, adding that a policy push for rental housing and wider access to formal housing finance is crucial amid rapid urbanisation.Mahesh Agarwal, managing director of Purti Realty, said continued policy support through tax rationalisation and infrastructure spending remains critical. “A re-evaluation of affordable housing price limits in line with rising land and construction costs, along with adjustments to GST on under-construction property, will enhance affordability,” he said, stressing that simpler tax frameworks and incentives for first-time buyers would help stabilise the market and speed up project execution.Echoing similar concerns, Merlin Group MD Saket Mohta pointed to sharp increases in construction costs since the introduction of GST in 2017, underscoring the need for further rationalisation. He also called for raising the affordable housing price cap from Rs 45 lakh to around Rs 80–90 lakh and expanding unit size norms. “Mid-income housing will be the key demand driver going into 2026, and supportive tax and policy measures are essential to sustain growth,” he said.Eden Realty MD Arya Sumant said the Budget must strike a balance between fiscal discipline and growth-oriented reforms. “Higher home loan interest deductions for mid-income and first-time buyers, an updated affordable housing definition, GST rationalisation and faster approvals will improve project viability and speed-to-market,” he said, adding that sustained urban infrastructure investment would unlock demand across residential and commercial segments.Sahil Saharia, CEO of Bengal Shristi Infrastructure Development Ltd, said policy focus should shift towards large, integrated developments. “Support for mixed-use townships, rental housing and commercial hubs, along with faster clearances and digital single-window mechanisms, can help create self-sustained urban ecosystems and improve execution efficiency,” he said.Developers said clear and stable policy signals in the Budget could help restore homebuyer confidence, attract long-term capital and ensure sustainable growth for the real estate sector in eastern India.
Business
Power sector’s circular debt shoots up by Rs223 billion – SUCH TV
Circular debt in the power sector has increased in the first five months of the ongoing financial year (FY). Sources told that the debt shot up by Rs223 billion since July 2025 to reach Rs1,837 billion in November 2025 within two months of the signing of agreements to reduce the debt by Rs1225 billion.
Despite the fact that the government had signed agreements with banks in September last year to reduce the debt, it increased by Rs144 billion in October and November.
In September, the debt stood at Rs1,693 billion, while it was Rs1,614 billion in June 2025.
Sources informed that compared with November 2024, the debt in November 2025 came down by Rs544 billion.
It was Rs2,381 in November 2024, they added.
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