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Stock market outlook: How will Nifty50, BSE Sensex react to US Fed chair Powell’s rate cut hints? What analysts say – Times of India

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Stock market outlook: How will Nifty50, BSE Sensex react to US Fed chair Powell’s rate cut hints? What analysts say – Times of India


Analysts suggest that domestic equity markets may respond positively to signals of a possible US Federal Reserve rate reduction. (AI image)

Indian equity benchmark indices, Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, are expected to see a gap-up opening on Monday after US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank may cut rates in its September policy review.Analysts suggest that domestic equity markets may respond positively to signals of a possible US Federal Reserve rate reduction, whilst investors remain watchful of the approaching deadline for supplementary US tariffs on Indian products in the upcoming shortened trading week. Favourable international indicators may offer backing, following substantial gains in US markets and weakening of the dollar index after Powell signalled possible rate reductions during his Jackson Hole Symposium address, analysts say.Additionally, market movements during the week will be influenced by foreign investor activities, international market developments and scheduled economic data releases such as GDP growth numbers.Last week witnessed the BSE benchmark advancing by 709.19 points or 0.87%, whilst the Nifty registered gains of 238.8 points or 0.96%.

What Fed’s Powell indicated on rate cut

Jerome Powell suggested on Friday that interest rates might be reduced during the September central bank meeting. He adopted a careful approach, avoiding definite promises about rate cuts. His statement recognised growing worries about jobs whilst noting ongoing inflation concerns.“While the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising, and if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment,” Powell said.“At the same time, GDP growth has slowed, notably in the first half of this year, to a pace of 1.2%, roughly half the 2.5% pace in 2024. The decline in growth has largely reflected a slowdown in consumer spending, as with the labor market. Some of the slowing in GDP likely reflects slower growth of supply or potential output.“We continue to believe that monetary policy must be forward looking and consider the lags its effects on the economy. For this reason, our policy actions depend on the economic outlook and the balance of risks to that outlook,” he said.

How will Indian stock markets react?

According to Sunny Agrawal, Head – Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, Indian stock markets are expected to react positively on Monday. “Powell indicates conditions ‘may warrant’ interest rate cuts as the situation suggests downside risks to employment rising. This is likely to put pressure on the dollar and augur well for riskier asset classes – EMs like India and commodities. Metals and IT stocks are likely to react positively in the trade on Monday,” Agarwal told TOI.Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited said the stock market’s upside may be muted to US President Donald Trump’s lingering tariffs.“Fed chief Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole indicates a rate cut in September. His remark that ‘there is a downside risk to unemployment and shifting risk balance may warrant policy adjustment’ clearly indicates a rate cut in September. The US markets have responded with rise in stock prices and decline in bond yields. The Indian market, too, may respond positively on Monday, but here tariff concerns are likely to weigh on markets more,” he told TOI.Siddhartha Khemka, who leads Research at the Wealth Management division of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, “We expect Indian equities to remain supported by optimism around GST 2.0 reforms and domestic macro strength. Globally, clarity on US tariff actions against India and upcoming GDP data from both India and the US will shape investor sentiment”.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)





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PMI watch: India’s services growth eases in February as demand softens, costs rise – The Times of India

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PMI watch: India’s services growth eases in February as demand softens, costs rise – The Times of India


India’s services sector growth eased marginally in February as new business expansion slowed to a 13-month low, reflecting softer demand conditions and a rise in inflation, according to a monthly survey released on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index edged down to 58.1 in February from 58.5 in January. In PMI terminology, readings above 50 denote expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction. “India’s Services PMI registered 58.1 in February, largely unchanged from January’s 58.5, signalling another month of robust expansion in the sector.” “While new order growth slowed to a 13-month low amid rising competition, service providers saw a notable pick-up in international sales and responded with increased hiring to meet operational needs,” said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. According to respondents, some firms benefited from stronger client enquiries and targeted marketing efforts, which supported sales. However, others reported that an increasingly competitive landscape limited the pace of growth. External demand stood out during the month. Services companies recorded improved business from several overseas markets, including Canada, Germany, mainland China, Singapore, the UAE, the UK and the US. Overall, international sales rose at the quickest pace since last August. Cost pressures intensified for service providers in February. Operating expenses increased at the sharpest rate in two-and-a-half years, prompting firms to raise their selling prices at the fastest pace in six months. “Input and output price inflation accelerated, with firms passing higher expenses — particularly for food and labour — on to customers, yet business confidence climbed to its highest level in a year as companies looked to broaden their market presence,” Bhandari said. At the combined level, private sector activity strengthened further. Total business output across manufacturing and services expanded at the fastest rate in three months, supported by improved demand and higher new business inflows. The HSBC India Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 58.9 in February from 58.4 in January. “Overall, the composite PMI rose to 58.9, reflecting the fastest pace of private sector activity growth in three months, buoyed by strong momentum in manufacturing,” Bhandari said. Composite PMI figures represent weighted averages of manufacturing and services indicators, with the weights reflecting their respective shares in official GDP data. While the pace of new order growth at the composite level was broadly similar to that seen around the start of the year, hiring activity strengthened to its highest level since last October. Inflationary trends were also evident in the broader private sector, with both input costs and output charges rising at quicker rates. These increases reached nine-month and six-month highs, respectively.



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80% Stocks Already In Bear Market; Should You Buy The Dip Or Run For Safety?

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80% Stocks Already In Bear Market; Should You Buy The Dip Or Run For Safety?


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India’s Sensex and Nifty correct 6-7%, with 80% of stocks in bear territory. Monarch AIF reports 64% of stocks over Rs 1,000 crore market cap has fallen 30%.

Hundreds of midcap and smallcap companies have quietly lost significant value.

Hundreds of midcap and smallcap companies have quietly lost significant value.

India’s benchmark indices may not show it, but a large part of the market is already in deep correction. According to a report by Monarch AIF, while the Sensex and Nifty have corrected only about 6-7 per cent from their record highs, nearly 80 per cent of listed stocks are already in bear market territory.

The data highlights a sharp divergence between headline indices and the broader market.

Majority of Stocks Deep In Correction

The report analysed companies with a market capitalisation above Rs 1,000 crore.

It found that over 64 per cent of these stocks have fallen more than 30 per cent from their all-time highs. Nearly 78 per cent have declined over 20 per cent.

In simple terms, most stocks in the market have already seen a brutal correction even though benchmark indices remain relatively elevated.

This unusual divergence has been playing out for the past 18 months.

Why Indices Are Still Holding Up

According to the report, Indian markets are witnessing a rare phase of simultaneous time and value correction.

A narrow set of large-cap stocks has kept the benchmark indices elevated. Meanwhile, hundreds of midcap and smallcap companies have quietly lost significant value.

This has created a misleading picture where the indices appear stable but the broader market has been under sustained pressure.

Now A New Shock: Middle East War

The situation has become more complicated after the recent escalation in West Asia.

Following US-Israel strikes on Iran, global markets have turned volatile and crude oil prices have surged.

Amid these developments, the Sensex recently fell over 1,000 points, while the Nifty slipped below the 24,900 level.

For investors, the challenge is that a market already weakened by months of selling is now facing geopolitical risks and a potential oil shock.

Should Investors Buy Or Wait?

Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, advised caution. “Amid persistent global uncertainties and elevated volatility, market participants are advised to maintain discipline and adopt a selective approach, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks during corrective phases. Fresh long positions should ideally be considered only after a decisive and sustained breakout above the 25,000 mark on the Nifty, which would signal improving sentiment and confirm the development of a stronger bullish structure,” he said.

Key Risk For India: Rising Oil

V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said the biggest concern for India is rising crude prices.

“With the war escalating and crude rising, markets are going into a period of heightened uncertainty. Nobody knows how long this conflict will go on and what will be the extent of the havoc it could wreck. From the perspective of India, which relies on imports for around 85% of her oil requirements, the real concern is the potential inflation and its consequences on economic growth. From the market perspective, the impact of potentially widening trade deficit, depreciating currency, higher inflation and perhaps lower growth is the real issue. If this fear materialises, corporate earnings will be impacted,” he said.

However, he added that the impact may be temporary if the conflict ends quickly.

“If it ends in, say 3 to 4 weeks, things will be back to normal,” he said.

Don’t Panic, Use Corrections

Despite the volatility, Vijayakumar advised investors not to panic. “Experience tells us that panicking and getting out of the market during uncertain times like these is not the right thing to do. Markets have an uncanny ability to surprise and climb all walls of worries,” he said.

According to him, investors with a long investment horizon and higher risk appetite can gradually accumulate quality stocks during corrections.

He added that sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and defence may offer attractive long-term opportunities.

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‘I fiddled the meter for a mate – and the shop burnt down’

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‘I fiddled the meter for a mate – and the shop burnt down’



A BBC investigation speaks to electricians and families setting up illegal meter bypasses to steal power.



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