Business
Survival costs leave Rs2.50 for school | The Express Tribune
KARACHI:
On New Year’s Day 2026, the release of the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2024-25 revealed that 20.3 million children remain out of school. Based on the first fully digital post-Census 2023 survey of 32,000 households, the data shows that Pakistan’s “education emergency” is not an abstract policy failure but a matter of household arithmetic, illustrating how a Rs100 note in a Pakistani father’s hand disappears before it can keep a child in school.
Countdown to zero
The survey shows how households spend their income and identifies the top three “life costs” that consume most of every Rs100 earned. Translating the 2024-25 HIES data into daily budgets reveals what the report describes as a “countdown to zero”.
Assuming every Rs100 earned represents total household expenditure, the 37% share allocated to food and beverages becomes a literal Rs37 taken from the wallet before the day begins. Once the Rs37 (36.72) for food is deducted from a hundred-rupee note, the countdown accelerates as Rs26 (25.72) is immediately claimed by housing and utilities.
This combined 63% (62.44) share, described as the “survival wall”, creates an economic chokehold. Before a family can consider a child’s future, nearly two-thirds of its income has already vanished into non-negotiable costs of bread, light and heat. In this imbalance, the state’s utility demands outweigh what a father can spare for schooling by almost ten to one, leaving just Rs2.50 (Rs2.48) for education.
Population divided into quintiles
Quintiles divide the population into five equal segments of 20% each. The first quintile represents the poorest 20% of households, followed by the lower-middle, middle, upper-middle and richest 20%.
Interpreting the graphs, renowned economist Dr Sajid Amin Javed, Deputy Executive Director and Founding Head of the Policy Solutions Lab at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), told The Express Tribune that a decline in the share of spending on education is not an automatic indicator of neglect or poverty. “In higher-income groups, rising incomes often outpace relatively stable education costs, shrinking the education spending ratio,” he said.
“However, a stark contrast appears in the bottom 40%, whose limited income is almost entirely spent on necessities, especially food, driven by stagnant wages and peak food inflation. This reveals a much harsher story of survival.” For these households, non-negotiable costs absorb the vast majority of income, leaving little room for other expenses. While education ratios may appear low because fees remain stable, Dr Javed said the persistently high share of food expenditure among the bottom 40% is the true marker of economic distress.
The ‘survival wall’
The struggle for a child’s future begins with the forced subtraction of the present. Before a student can pick up a pencil, a large “survival wall” consumes most of the household income.
The hunger cost takes the first Rs37 for basic food and nutrition, leaving Rs63. Next, the cost of light and heat takes Rs26 for electricity, gas and rent, leaving Rs37. Finally, only Rs2.50 is allocated for school fees and supplies. By the time these essentials are addressed, the family has already hit a survival wall of Rs63. The remaining Rs37 must cover all other necessities, including transport, medicine, clothing and emergencies.
Out-of-school children
While Rs2.50 for education may appear a minor line item in a household budget, global data suggests it is one of the strongest predictors of a family’s ability to escape poverty.
World Bank Global Director for Education and Skills Luis Benveniste has described education as an “economic imperative for individual prosperity”. The 202425 HIES, following the 2023 Digital Census, shows that the national out-of-school rate fell slightly from 30% to 28%. Despite this marginal improvement, around 20 million children remain out of school, with 20% never enrolled and 8% dropping out after initial attendance.
According to Khanzaib Ahmad, research assistant at the IBA Economic Growth and Forecasting initiative, inflation has forced Pakistani parents to reduce education spending from 3.98% to 2.48% of household budgets to cover food and utilities. Despite this reduction, literacy rose to 63% and out-of-school rates declined, reflecting increased awareness, reliance on community options and household resilience, even as government education spending remains at 0.8% of GDP. Echoing Dr Javed, Ahmad noted that the bottom 40% of households, often with seven or more members, are trapped in subsistence living. Nearly all available resources go toward basic staples, leaving no financial space for education or economic mobility.
Provincial breakdown
The provincial picture shows persistent divides. In Punjab, 21% of children are out of school, while food insecurity affects 22.6% of households. The Rs2.50 that could be allocated to schooling is often diverted to meet rising food costs.
In Sindh, 39% of children are out of school. The Rs2.50 for education cannot cover uniforms or transport, while Rs63 spent on food and utilities leaves many rural families unable to begin the enrolment process, which often never starts.
In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, 28% of children are out of school. Even when Rs2.50 is spared, underfunded schools mean seven in ten children are classified as “learning poor”, unable to read a basic sentence by the age of 10.
Balochistan faces the most severe challenge, with 45% of children out of school. With food insecurity exceeding 30%, the entire Rs100 earned by many households is consumed by survival needs, pushing families into a permanent deficit.
Gilgit-Baltistan records the lowest rate, with 18% of children out of school, showing that strong local community engagement can reduce “survival wall” barriers even during economic hardship.
Sacrificing tomorrow for today’s heat and light
Federal and Sindh education ministers did not comment. Ministry sources said conditions are better in capitals and major cities, where private schooling options exist. For ordinary households, however, many children are withdrawn from school due to the inability to afford basic learning materials, forcing early work.
The most painful 2026 indicator is the 8% dropout rate, with children pushed out by economic necessity. Four in ten boys leave school for “odd jobs” to recover the Rs26 spent on utility bills.
This arithmetic shows the education crisis cannot be separated from the cost of living. With the survival wall fixed at 63%, the Rs2.50 for a child’s education remains at constant risk. Until the state eases the Rs63 burden of food and fuel, classrooms will remain a luxury that 20 million children cannot afford, as a generation’s future is traded to pay heat and light bills.
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Gold and silver hit new records in 2025, with silver crossing 90 dollars per ounce. Experts highlight silver’s industrial demand and gold’s role as a hedge.
Gold and Silver outlook this week
Gold and Silver Prices Outlook: Gold and silver prices saw a marginal dip after a record-breaking rally. Continuing the upward momentum of 2025, gold and silver made new records with silver crossing $90 per ounce-mark for the first time in history. Meanwhile, gold hovered in the range of $4,596-$5,600 per ounce.
COMEX Silver has seen a relatively sharper correction to the $89–$90 region after peaking above $93.7, reflecting short-term profit-booking following an extended rally.
In India, gold futures with expiry on February 05, 2026, stood at Rs 1,42,474 per 10 grams as on January 16, 2026. Silver futures with expiry in March were at Rs 2,87,701 per kg.
The tussle between European Union and the United States of American will be watched closely across the world this week. Trump administration has put fresh tariffs on the European Union following his demand to acquire Greenland, an autonomous region under Denmark, prompting the EU to halt the trade deal with the US with immediate effect.
“The 0 per cent tariffs on US products must be put on hold,” Weber said in a post on X, citing concerns over Washington’s latest actions.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the new tariffs risk damaging transatlantic ties.
“Tariffs undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral,” she said, stressing that Europe would uphold its sovereignty and remain united.
Gold, Silver Outlook
The long-term appeal of silver and gold will remain. Chronic supply shortages, especially in silver, sustained central bank gold purchases, accelerating demand from green energy, EVs, AI, and electronics, and ongoing macro and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support the long-term bullish narrative, said Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money.
While near-term volatility may persist due to profit-taking, dollar movements, and key U.S. macro data, any corrective phases are expected to remain shallow and attract buying interest, added Ponmudi R.
“Silver continues to offer relative outperformance potential due to its higher industrial leverage, while gold remains a reliable hedge against macro and geo-political uncertainty,” he said.
Prasenjit Paul, Equity Research Analyst & Fund Manager at 129 Wealth Fund said one of the biggest mistakes investors can make is treating gold, silver, and debt as one broad “defensive” allocation.
“Doing so masks overlapping risks and can lead to a situation where supposedly safe assets decline at the same time as equities,” he said.
For gold he added that it should be viewed purely as catastrophe insurance—largely independent of the business cycle and the most reliable hedge against systemic stress.
Adding for silver, Paul said, Silver does not belong in the defensive category at all. Its demand is heavily linked to industrial activity, particularly in areas like solar energy and electric vehicles.
“As a result, silver behaves more like a cyclical asset and should be treated as a tactical satellite allocation,” Paul added.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips by experts in this News18.com report are their own and not those of the website or its management. Users are advised to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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January 18, 2026, 14:54 IST
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UK inflation could have ticked higher last month, as Christmas getaways helped fuel price rises at the end of the year, economists have said.
Some economists are expecting the rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation to have risen in December after falling sharply the previous month.
Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said they were forecasting CPI to rise to 3.3% in December, from 3.2% in November.
A hike to tobacco duties, which was announced at the autumn budget in November, is set to have pushed up overall inflation during the month.
The price of plane tickets and hotels are also expected to have soared amid stronger demand for Christmas travel.
Analysts forecast that airfares could have jumped by about 30% between November and December.
But economists stressed that the choice of date for the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to collect the latest inflation data would be crucial, as prices would have differed throughout the month.
If it was collected later in the month, travel prices could have been much higher in line with the school holidays, pushing up the overall rate of inflation.
Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist for Oxford Economics, said he thought the slowdown in the rising cost of living was “temporarily halted” in December.
He said: “Some of November’s downward pressure came from volatile categories, including clothing, airfares, and accommodation services, and this is likely to have unwound in December, although the choice of date for collecting the data will likely have a crucial bearing on the outturn for airfares.”
He is predicting a much sharper increase of CPI inflation to 3.6% in December.
On the other hand, analysts for Barclays said they thought inflation would remain unchanged at 3.2% in December.
They forecast energy price inflation to have slowed, while food and drink price rises to have steadied at the end of the year.
But experts said they thought inflation was still heading downwards this year.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said that “longer term, the trajectory for inflation is still on the downside, heading back towards the 2% target later this year”.
“November’s budget from the Chancellor was largely viewed as disinflationary owing to its contractionary fiscal measures, including tax increases and spending cuts,” she said.
“Plus, there are growing signs of slack in the labour market, also easing inflationary pressures in the UK economy.”
Business
Coffeemakers are the new centerpiece? India’s growing craze for cafe-like coffee at home; lakhs splurged on aroma and style – The Times of India
Spent a fortune on a coffee machine and those exotic beans to replicate that cappuccino you loved overseas? You are not alone. For many rich Indians, the coffee machine on the kitchen counter is no longer just for making a drink, rather it has become a lifestyle statement, as more people are trying to bring the cafe experience they enjoyed overseas, right in their homes.A growing number of young, affluent consumers are spending several lakh rupees on high-end coffee machines, specialty beans and cafe-style equipment to mirror the ambience of European coffee houses. These machines, which offer far more than basic espresso or latte functions, have become objects of prestige. Brands such as Versuni, SMEG and DeLonghi are increasingly being displayed as centrepieces in kitchens and lounges, erasing the line between appliance and art.
India’s coffee craze
From only a few hunderds six years ago, now, almost 20,000 premium coffee machines are estimated to be sold locally, every year, a figure that includes direct imports by companies, ET reported. This does not includes the large number of machines that individuals bring into the country themselves while travelling abroad or order through international e-commerce platforms. With limited availability of high-end brands and models in India, parallel imports continue to rise. Ravi Saxena, founder and chief executive of Wonderchef Home Appliances, links this trend to the rapid spread of neighbourhood cafes across Indian cities. He says this has created strong interest in recreating cafe-quality coffee at home. A trained barista, Saxena sells about 1.4 lakh coffee machines a year, including premium automatic models priced between Rs 60,000 and Rs 90,000. The appetite for premium machines is also visible among frequent international travellers. Gurgaon-based hotelier Rajat Gera placed an order for an SMEG machine in December for Rs 1.3 lakh and is still waiting for it to arrive at Indian ports. “It’s a piece of art that deserves to be placed as a centrepiece in the kitchen or lounge,” he says. The overall coffee machine market in India is valued at Rs 250–300 crore and is growing at more than 15% a year. Total sales across price categories reached about 4.2–4.5 lakh units in the last calendar year, compared with roughly 1.8 lakh units in 2019. While machines priced up to Rs 15,000 continue to dominate volumes, premium models are steadily expanding their share.
Struggling for the right taste
For some buyers, the shift is rooted in dissatisfaction with cafe offerings at home. Satyendra Shukla, who runs a boutique investment firm, bought a La Carimali machine for Rs 1.5 lakh two years ago. “I had to struggle for every cup of coffee in India. No cafe could give me coffee I liked. The right texture, temperature or taste seldom came together. Now, my well travelled friends say I make the best coffee. I look after the machine and spend a lot of time sourcing the best beans.” Others are prepared to absorb heavy import costs. Kolkata-based independent professional A Banerjee purchased a Philips machine priced at Rs 57,000 from Amazon UK for Rs 95,000 after accounting for shipping, customs duties and currency conversion. Gulbahar Taurani, chief executive of Versuni India, attributes rising demand to young consumers exploring different beans, flavours, aromas and brewing styles, including coffee mocktails mixed with tonic water. He said the company’s pilot launch of premium models priced up to Rs 80,000 in India has been highly successful. Versuni plans to combine its global technology with adaptations for Indian preferences. While its entire range is currently imported, Taurani has not ruled out domestic manufacturing as volumes grow. Retailers are also reporting strong traction. Coffee machines are among the fastest-moving categories in stores. Vijay Sales sells 400–500 units every month. “Coffee machines have become a lifestyle product. While most of the demand is still in the entry- to mid-segment, premium models are also selling fast. This could become a big category in the next three to four years,” said Nilesh Gupta, director, Vijay Sales. What was once a simple kitchen tool is rapidly turning into a lifestyle statement, as coffee drinkers in the country are investing not just in caffeine, but in culture and cachet at home.
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