Fashion
Tariffs may raise prices of apparel by 36.2% in US in short run: TBL
On the other hand, under the invalidation of International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 6.8 per cent, the highest since 1969. After consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will still be 6.8 per cent.
In the baseline scenario, consumers face particularly high increases in leather and clothing in the short-run: prices increase by 37.3 per cent for leather products (shoes and hand bags), 36.2 per cent for apparel and 22 per cent for textiles. After substitution and global supply shifts in the long-run, prices remain 13.2 per cent, 12.8 per cent and 8.2 per cent higher respectively for the three sectors.
In the baseline scenario where all current US tariffs are maintained in perpetuity, US consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 17.4 per cent, the highest since 1935, The Budget Lab at Yale University said.
Under this scenario, prices increase by 37.3 per cent for leather products, 36.2 per cent for apparel and 22 per cent for textiles in the short-run.
In the baseline scenario, all tariffs till now this year are expected to raise $2.4 trillion between 2026 and 2035. Under the invalidation of IEEPA tariffs, $704 billion is raised over the same time horizon.
In the baseline scenario, the price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 1.7 per cent, equivalent of an average per household income loss of $2,300 in 2025 US dollars. Under the invalidation of IEEPA tariffs, the price level rises by 0.5 per cent, equivalent of an average per household income loss of $700.
In the baseline scenario, US real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over 2025 and 2026 is minus 0.5 percentage point (pp) lower each year from all 2025 tariffs. In the long-run, the US economy is persistently minus 0.4 per cent smaller, the equivalent of $120 billion annually in 2024 dollar.
Under the invalidation of the IEEPA tariffs, US real GDP growth over 2025 and 2026 is minus 0.5 pp lower each year from all 2025 tariffs. In the long-run, the US economy is persistently minus 0.1 per cent smaller, the equivalent of $25 billion annually in 2024 dollar, a TBL release said.
In the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate is projected to rise by 0.28 pp by the end of 2025 and 0.65 pp by the end of 2026. Payroll employment is 480,000 lower by the end of 2025.
Under the invalidation of the IEEPA tariffs, the unemployment rate rises by 0.3 pp by the end of 2025 and 0.5 pp by the end of 2026. Payroll employment is 480,000 lower by the end of 2025.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Imports of textile fabrics remained steady year on year (YoY), while fibre imports declined. In August ****, textile fabric imports totalled £*** million (~$***.** million), unchanged from August ****. Fibre imports, however, fell to £** million (~$**.** million) from £** million a year earlier, continuing a downward trend influenced by global raw material price volatility and sustainability-led sourcing shifts.
In the second quarter (Q*) of ****, the UK’s clothing imports reached £*.*** billion (~$*.*** billion), up *.** per cent from £*.*** billion in Q* ****. Although this quarterly growth was slightly weaker than in Q* ****, it indicates steady recovery amid stabilising global supply chains and resilient consumer appetite. Fabric imports during Q* **** were valued at £*.*** billion, while textile fibre imports reached £** million, compared to £*.*** billion and £*** million, respectively, in the same quarter of ****.
“These landmark deals demonstrate that America can maintain tariffs to shrink the goods trade deficit, while opening new markets for American farmers, ranchers, workers and manufacturers,” said Greer in a statement released by the USTR.
President Donald Trump has secured agreements on reciprocal trade with Malaysia and Cambodia and reached frameworks for such pacts with Thailand and Vietnam, USTR Jamieson Greer recently announced.
Malaysia has committed to providing significant preferential market access for US industrial goods and agricultural exports, while Cambodia has committed to eliminate tariffs on 100 per cent of such goods.
Malaysia has committed to providing significant preferential market access for US industrial goods and agricultural exports, and addressing non-tariff barriers that affect bilateral trade in priority industrial areas.
Malaysia has committed to raising enforcement against notorious markets for counterfeiting and piracy; protecting internationally-recognised labour rights; and preventing forced labour. It has also committed to refraining from banning, or imposing quotas on, exports to the United States of critical minerals or rare earth elements, a joint statement released by the White House said.
Cambodia has committed to eliminate tariffs on 100 per cent of US industrial goods and food and agricultural products and has already implemented the commitment. The agreement includes commitments on digital trade, services, investment, intellectual property, customs and trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, and distortionary behaviors of state-owned enterprises.
Thailand will eliminate tariff barriers on nearly 99 per cent of goods, covering a full range of US industrial and food and agricultural products. It will address and prevent barriers to US food and agricultural products in the Thai market, including expediting access for the United States.
Vietnam will provide preferential market access for substantially all US industrial and agricultural exports. Vietnamese firms have signed 20 memoranda of understanding with US companies to purchase agricultural commodities, with a total estimated value of over $2.9 billion.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Fashion
UK non-food prices fall again but business rate change may drive inflation and cost jobs says BRC
Published
October 28, 2025
UK shop price inflation fell in the first week of October bringing some relief for hard-pressed consumers, the new BRC-NIQ Shop Price Monitor showed on Tuesday.
But the news came at the same time as a warning that UK retail jobs are at risk from potential tax rises.
First those inflation figures. Overall shop price inflation fell to 1% year on year this month. That’s lower than the 1.4% seen in September and the three-month average of 1.1%.
Specific non-food inflation was actually deflation as it has been for some time. And it accelerated as prices fell more than in September (-0.4% this time rather than -0.1%).
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Overall shop price inflation slowed in October, driven by fierce competition among retailers and widespread discounting. Discounts came early to electricals and health & beauty, as retailers started promotions ahead of Black Friday month.
“The IMF recently warned that UK inflation will be the highest in the G7. With the Budget less than a month away, the Chancellor has an opportunity to relieve some of the pressures that are keeping the cost of essentials high.”
And that leads us on to the warning of potential job losses if the forthcoming Autumn Budget hammers retailers.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) and UK Hospitality have raised concerns over plans to make superstores and other large businesses pay higher business rates.
They said hundreds of sites could close, potentially costing 120,000 jobs.
The changes are designed to give the government room to reduce the burden on smaller businesses and it has said they’ll mean a boost for city centres.
But owners of larger businesses have said it may do the opposite as some major ‘anchor’ sites — particularly large supermarkets and department stores — may close.
Helen Dickinson said ministers should agree to an exemption from higher business rates for retailers to “safeguard hundreds of anchor stores and the vital jobs they sustain”.
She explained that the proposed changes would also added to inflation: “Labour’s promised business rates reform must deliver a meaningful cut to retailers’ rates bills, and ensure that no store pays more. Rising employer National Insurance Contributions and a new packaging tax have directly contributed towards rising inflation, according to the Bank of England. Adding further taxes on retail businesses would inevitably keep inflation higher for longer.”
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