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Tax season presents a boom-or-bust test for U.S. auto sales

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Tax season presents a boom-or-bust test for U.S. auto sales


Customers near a Ford Maverick pickup truck at a Ford dealership in Richmond, California, US, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

DETROIT – The strength of the U.S. automotive industry will face an early test this spring that has nothing to do with cars or trucks.

With tax season starting, industry experts are projecting that some Americans, many of whom have been priced out of the new vehicle market, will use anticipated higher tax returns to purchase a new or used vehicle.

Extra cash on hand could lend a needed boost to an industry that’s suffering from slowing vehicle sales — or it could reveal continued problems for the automotive industry with inflated prices and consumers still reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.

“Their new tax bill is actually going to be less, and they’re going to be getting more in their tax return. It’s going to be a little bit of a surprise, we think, for a lot of potential buyers out there,” said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough at a recent auto analyst conference.

The average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, compared to the same point in 2025, according to early filing data. As of Feb. 6, the average refund amount was $2,290, compared with $2,065 reported about one year prior.

The increases were expected under tax changes by the Trump administration, including the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July. That legislation removed taxes on overtime and tips and allowed eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest paid on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased, among other adjustments.

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Many of the tax changes were made retroactive to January 2025, which means taxpayers may have withheld more than they will ultimately owe.

“Although it’s a bit of an unknown, it feels like it could be really beneficial to vehicle sales, particularly in that sort of Q1-Q2 timeframe,” said David Oakley, GlobalData manager of Americas vehicle sales forecasts.

March is historically one of the top months for U.S. vehicle sales, especially for used vehicles. The month has represented 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales on average over the past 12 years, according to Cox, trailing only the month of December at 9.3% of sales.

Many of the recent tax changes also assist middle- and higher-income consumers who may decide to pull ahead a vehicle purchase. The industry saw a similar dynamic during the Covid pandemic when the Trump administration issued many Americans $1,400 stimulus checks.

Back then, though, federal interest rates were near zero compared to the current Federal Reserve funds rate of 3.5%–3.75% and inventory of new vehicles was low. Now, with higher borrowing costs, but improved inventory, the equation could be different.

More buyers are agreeing to longer-term loans amid higher financing costs and prices. Putting down extra cash ahead of time can help lower monthly payments, which Carmax’s Edmunds reports reached a record of $772 per month for new vehicles during the fourth quarter.

The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. was hovering around $50,000 toward the end of last year, up 30% from the start of 2020, according to Cox.

“What we don’t know is with consumer finance so stressed already, is that extra money already spent? Whether that’s going to be in the pockets. It’s a really mixed bag out there,” Chesbrough said.

Consumers could choose to use higher tax returns to pay off credit card debt — which nationally stands at a record level of $1.28 trillion, according to a report last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — or replenish their savings after a period of persistent inflation.

U.S. consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, driven by intense anxiety over high prices and a weakening labor market.

“It’s only confident people, people who feel comfortable about their economic fortunes of the economy of the United States, that are going to be interested in taking out a $40,000 or $50,000 auto loan,” Chesbrough said. “It’s a very difficult situation right now.”

– CNBC’s Kate Dore contributed to this report.



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New norms for NH & bridge works: Longer timelines, realistic deadlines – The Times of India

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New norms for NH & bridge works: Longer timelines, realistic deadlines – The Times of India


New Delhi: In a major change in policy, govt has increased the time allowed for construction of 6-10 km-long bridges across rivers such as Ganga and Brahmaputra to six years and for 2.5-6 km-long bridges on Mahanadi and Godavari to five years. The timelines have been revised from the current 24-30 months.Similarly, the construction period has been fixed at two years for national highway projects costing up to Rs 500 crore, 30 months for Rs 500-1,500 crore projects, and three years for works costing over Rs 1,500 crore.The change in the ‘normative construction period’ has been made after a gap of 13 years, learning from past experience of how the average time taken for completion of NH projects has been over four years against the standard timeline of 2.5-3 years. The revised timeline for construction will be applicable for all NH projects to be bid out from May 6.In a circular, the road transport ministry said present guidelines — issued in 2013 — are derived from a legacy linear model that does not explicitly account for voluminous earthwork, leading to unrealistic construction period and resulting in additional cost and risk.“Therefore, a need was felt to revise the existing guidelines based on scientific analysis, understanding of completed projects, and prescribe a realistic construction period for civil works at DPR and bid invitation stage,” the ministry said. It added that the new norm will improve predictability in completion of projects, reduce disputes, enhance value and quality of NHs, for realistic and bankable bids, better quality outcomes and improved investor confidence.An additional six months time has been provisioned in the new norms for critical projects which involve multiple flyovers, tunnels or elevated structures. Similarly, an addition of 12 months has been provisioned for projects that involve cutting and slope stabilisation in hilly states.



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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in annual letter cites risks in geopolitics, AI and private markets

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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in annual letter cites risks in geopolitics, AI and private markets


JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is calling for a broad recommitment to American ideals as his bank navigates geopolitical uncertainty, a teetering economy and the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence.

Dimon in his annual letter to shareholders, published Monday, noted the country’s 250th anniversary as “the perfect time to rededicate ourselves to the values that made this great nation of ours — freedom, liberty and opportunity.”

“The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China,” Dimon said. “Even in troubled times, we have confidence that America will do what it has always done — look to the values that have defined our singular nation and sustained our leadership of the free world.”

Dimon, the longtime leader of the world’s largest bank by market cap, is among the most outspoken of U.S. corporate leaders. His annual letter offers not only a matter of record for his firm’s performance, but also sweeping perspectives on the global state of affairs.

In Monday’s letter, Dimon noted headwinds including global conflicts, persistent inflation, private market upheaval and what he called “poor bank regulations.”

Dimon said that while regulations like those put in place after the 2008 financial crisis “accomplished some good things … they also created a fragmented, slow-moving system with expensive, overlapping and excessive rules and regulations — some of which made the financial system weaker and reduced productive lending.”

He specifically cited negative consequences of capital and liquidity requirements, the current construction of the Federal Reserve’s stress test and a “badly handled” process at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Dimon also said JPMorgan’s reaction to revised proposals for Basel 3 Endgame and a global systemically important bank, or GSIB, surcharge — issued by U.S. regulators last month — were “mixed.”

“While it was good to see that the recent proposals for the Basel 3 Endgame (B3E) and GSIB attempted to reduce the increase in required capital from the 2023 proposals, there are still some aspects that are frankly nonsensical,” Dimon said.

The CEO said with the aggregate proposed surcharges of about 5%, the bank would need to hold “as much as 50% more capital across the vast majority of loans to U.S. consumers and businesses when compared with a large non-GSIB bank for the same set of loans.”

“Frankly, it’s not right, and it’s un-American,” he said.

On trade and geopolitics

Dimon identified geopolitical tensions as the primary risk facing his bank, namely the wars in Ukraine and Iran and their impacts on commodities and global markets — deeming war “the realm of uncertainty.”

“The outcome of current geopolitical events may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic order unfolds,” he said. “Then again, it may not.”

He also cited a “realignment of economic relations in the world” brought on by U.S. trade policy. U.S. President Donald Trump has made tariffs a signature policy of his second term in office, introducing higher duties on dozens of trade partners and import categories.

“The trade battles are clearly not over, and it should be expected that many nations are analyzing how and with whom they should create trade arrangements,” Dimon said. “While some of this is necessary for national security and resiliency, which are paramount, it is hard to figure out what the long-term effects will be.”

On private markets

Dimon also spoke to recent upheaval in the private markets, as fears around loans made to software firms spur massive redemption requests at private credit funds.

“By and large, private credit does not tend to have great transparency or rigorous valuation ‘marks’ of their loans — this increases the chance that people will sell if they think the environment will get worse — even if actual realized losses barely change,” Dimon said.

The executive added that actual losses are already higher than they should be relative to the environment.

“However this plays out, it should be expected that at some point insurance regulators will insist on more rigorous ratings or markdowns, which will likely lead to demands for more capital,” he said.

On AI

Dimon reiterated Monday that the pace of AI adoption is unlike any technology that came before it. He said while its implementation will be “transformational,” it remains to be seen how the AI revolution will unfold.

“Overall, the investment in AI is not a speculative bubble; rather, it will deliver significant benefits. However, at this time, we cannot predict the ultimate winners and losers in AI- related industries,” Dimon said.

“We will not put our heads in the sand. We will deploy AI, as we deploy all technology, to do a better job for our customers (and employees),” he wrote.

JPMorgan has been at the forefront of Wall Street firms introducing AI at every level of its business. Last year, JPMorgan Chief Analytics Officer Derek Waldron gave CNBC an early demonstration into how it’s using agentic AI to speed up work and improve results for customers and shareholders.

In February, Dimon said AI was reshaping JPMorgan’s workforce and that the bank had “huge redeployment plans” for employees.

“We have focused on some of the ‘known and predictable’ and some of the ‘known unknown’ events,” he said. “But huge technological shifts like AI always have second- and third-order effects as well that can deeply impact society. … We should be monitoring for this kind of transformation, too.”

— CNBC’s Leslie Picker and Ritika Shah contributed to this report.

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Gold price rises up Rs1,100 per tola in Pakistan – SUCH TV

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Gold price rises up Rs1,100 per tola in Pakistan – SUCH TV



The prices of gold increased in the local market on Monday, with 24-karat gold per tola rising by Rs1,100 to settle at Rs491,462 compared to Rs490,362 on the previous trading day, according to rates issued by the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association.

Similarly, the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold increased by Rs943 to Rs421,349 from Rs420,406, whereas 10 grams of 22-karat gold went up by Rs864 to Rs386,250 against Rs385,386.

In the international market, the price of gold increased by $11 to $4,687 per ounce from $4,676.

Meanwhile, the price of silver per tola decreased by Rs 50 to Rs 7,744 from Rs 7,794, while the price of 10 grams of silver declined by Rs 43 to Rs 6,639 from Rs 6,682.

The price of silver in the international market also decreased by $0.50 to $72.60 per ounce from $73.10.



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