Business
Tax season presents a boom-or-bust test for U.S. auto sales
Customers near a Ford Maverick pickup truck at a Ford dealership in Richmond, California, US, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
DETROIT – The strength of the U.S. automotive industry will face an early test this spring that has nothing to do with cars or trucks.
With tax season starting, industry experts are projecting that some Americans, many of whom have been priced out of the new vehicle market, will use anticipated higher tax returns to purchase a new or used vehicle.
Extra cash on hand could lend a needed boost to an industry that’s suffering from slowing vehicle sales — or it could reveal continued problems for the automotive industry with inflated prices and consumers still reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.
“Their new tax bill is actually going to be less, and they’re going to be getting more in their tax return. It’s going to be a little bit of a surprise, we think, for a lot of potential buyers out there,” said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough at a recent auto analyst conference.
The average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, compared to the same point in 2025, according to early filing data. As of Feb. 6, the average refund amount was $2,290, compared with $2,065 reported about one year prior.
The increases were expected under tax changes by the Trump administration, including the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July. That legislation removed taxes on overtime and tips and allowed eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest paid on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased, among other adjustments.
Auto dealer stocks
Many of the tax changes were made retroactive to January 2025, which means taxpayers may have withheld more than they will ultimately owe.
“Although it’s a bit of an unknown, it feels like it could be really beneficial to vehicle sales, particularly in that sort of Q1-Q2 timeframe,” said David Oakley, GlobalData manager of Americas vehicle sales forecasts.
March is historically one of the top months for U.S. vehicle sales, especially for used vehicles. The month has represented 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales on average over the past 12 years, according to Cox, trailing only the month of December at 9.3% of sales.
Many of the recent tax changes also assist middle- and higher-income consumers who may decide to pull ahead a vehicle purchase. The industry saw a similar dynamic during the Covid pandemic when the Trump administration issued many Americans $1,400 stimulus checks.
Back then, though, federal interest rates were near zero compared to the current Federal Reserve funds rate of 3.5%–3.75% and inventory of new vehicles was low. Now, with higher borrowing costs, but improved inventory, the equation could be different.
More buyers are agreeing to longer-term loans amid higher financing costs and prices. Putting down extra cash ahead of time can help lower monthly payments, which Carmax’s Edmunds reports reached a record of $772 per month for new vehicles during the fourth quarter.
The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. was hovering around $50,000 toward the end of last year, up 30% from the start of 2020, according to Cox.
“What we don’t know is with consumer finance so stressed already, is that extra money already spent? Whether that’s going to be in the pockets. It’s a really mixed bag out there,” Chesbrough said.
Consumers could choose to use higher tax returns to pay off credit card debt — which nationally stands at a record level of $1.28 trillion, according to a report last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — or replenish their savings after a period of persistent inflation.
U.S. consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, driven by intense anxiety over high prices and a weakening labor market.
“It’s only confident people, people who feel comfortable about their economic fortunes of the economy of the United States, that are going to be interested in taking out a $40,000 or $50,000 auto loan,” Chesbrough said. “It’s a very difficult situation right now.”
– CNBC’s Kate Dore contributed to this report.
Greggs is launching a chicken version of its customer favourite sausage and vegan rolls in a permanent addition to its menu.
The Chicken Roll – described by the high street baker as “seasoned chicken wrapped in layers of crisp, golden, glazed puff pastry” contains 305 calories and will cost £1.35 when it goes on sale on Thursday.
It follows the Sausage Roll and the pork free Vegan Roll.
To celebrate the final launch of the “trilogy”, Greggs is allowing customers the chance to be among the first to taste the new roll with a 20-minute slot between 3.30pm and 9pm on Wednesday (April 8) at a pop-up location at 15 Bateman Street, in London’s Soho.
Places will be given on a first-come first-served basis but, in a nod to the trilogy theme, guests must arrive as part of a trio of friends or family.
Visitors will be able to pair their three complimentary rolls with a free chicken-themed cocktail or mocktail.
A Greggs spokeswoman said: “They say the best things come in threes, and our iconic roll trilogy is no exception.
“We can’t wait for our customers to experience the Chicken Roll as the ultimate headline act of our flaky franchise.”
Over the past year, Greggs has come under pressure from cautious shoppers affected by the rising cost of living, higher tax and labour costs, and the growing use of weight-loss treatments.
Last month, the Newcastle-based firm reported that statutory pre-tax profits fell by 17.9% to £167.4 million for the year to December 27, compared with a year earlier.
It also told shareholders that total sales grew by 6.8% to £2.15 billion over the year, with like-for-like growth buoyed by its continued store opening programme.
Greggs said it had 121 net store openings in 2025, expanding its shop estate to 2,739 locations by the end of the year.
It is targeting around 120 further openings this year as it highlighted ambitions to grow to “significantly more than 3,000 UK shops over longer term”.
Applied Nutrition is significantly expanding its product range to cater to customers using weight loss drugs, following a substantial increase in demand over the past year.
The health and wellness brand said it has identified a key business opportunity stemming from the sharp rise in Britons using GLP-1 treatments, such as Mounjaro and Wegovy.
The London-listed company, which already offers GLP-1-friendly high-protein ready meals launched in late 2025, confirmed that new products specifically designed for this market will be introduced later this year.
“The GLP-1 user is a growing customer. We see this as a consumer at the start of their weight loss journey who is now looking at how the medication can help them,” Thomas Ryder, founder and chief executive of the Liverpool-based firm, said.
“There is an opportunity, as those customers often need supplements and need smaller portions. I think this is a catalyst for the health and wellness space if we have that consumer in mind.
“We do have a number of products we will bring to market in this area because we do see that area growing.”
At least 1.6 million Britons have used weight loss jabs in the past year, according to research by University College London.
Applied Nutrition has reported strong growth, driven by targeting new customer opportunities and diversifying its sales channels, including expansion into UK retail stores.
In March, the company announced robust financial results, with pre-tax profits soaring by 77.1% to £20.9 million for the six months ending 31 January, compared to the previous year.
Sales also saw a significant uplift, rising by 56.5 per cent to £74.5 million over the same half-year period.
However, the firm cautioned that sales volumes in the Middle East are expected to be affected by the ongoing conflict in the region.
Applied Nutrition said it still expects to meet revenue targets for the year of around £140 million.
The company added: “Importantly, we have managed similar disruption in the past, supported by the agility of our operations.
“In this instance, we are working closely with customers to adapt our routes into the region and logistics arrangements to safeguard continued supply to those customers.”
Business
Trump administration finalizes better-than-feared Medicare Advantage payment rate in boost to health insurers
Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Mehmet Oz speaks during an event sponsored by the Action for Progress Coalition, at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 2, 2026.
Al Drago | Reuters
The Trump administration on Monday finalized a 2027 payment rate increase to privately run Medicare plans that was far bigger than initially proposed, a boost to health insurer stocks.
The government will increase average Medicare Advantage payments by 2.48%, or more than $13 billion, in 2027, according to a release from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. The Trump administration in January proposed a payment rate hike of 0.09%, which pummeled shares of insurers that run those plans.
Shares of UnitedHealth and CVS Health rose more than 9% in after-hours trading on Monday. Meanwhile, Humana‘s stock jumped around 12%.
“Medicare Advantage and Part D should work for the people who rely on them,” said CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz in a release. “These updates keep coverage affordable and ensure patients get real value from their plans.”
The closely watched government payment rate determines how much insurers can charge for monthly premiums and plan benefits they offer and, ultimately, their profits.
Medicare Advantage is a privately run health insurance plan contracted by Medicare. More than half of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in such plans, enticed by lower monthly premiums and extra benefits not covered by traditional Medicare, according to health policy research firm KFF.
Wellness brand announces new product range for those on weight-loss jabs
Greggs launches chicken version of sausage and vegan rolls in ‘iconic trilogy’
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