Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Report, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI

Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23

Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka

Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s top corner shadowed most weeks last season, including a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a strong 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Evans was out for the Week 8 meeting between the teams, but Terrell also shadowed him in Week 5 back in 2022 (where Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), as well as in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.

Some quick math shows that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG in the four meetings with Terrell, having reached 20 points twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan both out, Evans will be Mayfield’s top target and Terrell hasn’t been much of a detriment to his success. Evans should be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie running mate Egbuka should also be in lineups.

Over/under: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 64% (7th highest)

Projected score: Bengals 27, Browns 20

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has yet to sign with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford played six full games as the team’s lead back last season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy points. He was also the team’s lead back for most of 2023 and finished 16th in RB fantasy points (25th in PPG) while piling up 1,132 yards and nine TDs. It’s yet to be seen how much Sampson will contribute, but Ford is safe to view as a RB2/flex option this week against a suspect Bengals defense.

Over/under: 47 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 73% (3rd highest)

Projected score: Colts 23, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Shadow Report: Free agency and injuries have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, recently signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. as the probable Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a fast start with Daniel Jones under center. Upgrade the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren also makes for a fine starting option in his NFL debut.

Over/under: 44.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Colts 55% (14th highest)

Projected score: Patriots 25, Raiders 19

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers

Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit risky as he makes his New England debut while returning from last season’s torn ACL. The good news is that he has an appealing Week 1 matchup at home against a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes will be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow starting WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte can be upgraded.

Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 69% (4th highest)

Projected score: Cardinals 24, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round pick — appeared in seven games as a rookie and did not show particularly well. He completed 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and managed four TDs and five INTs. Especially against an improved Arizona defense, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ pass catchers very risky fantasy plays. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on five career targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) are no better than flex options in deeper leagues.

Over/under: 42.1 (15th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 68% (6th highest)

Projected score: Steelers 20, Jets 18