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The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 1

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The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 1


Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Report, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.



All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)


TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI


Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23

Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka

Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s top corner shadowed most weeks last season, including a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a strong 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Evans was out for the Week 8 meeting between the teams, but Terrell also shadowed him in Week 5 back in 2022 (where Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), as well as in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.

Some quick math shows that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG in the four meetings with Terrell, having reached 20 points twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan both out, Evans will be Mayfield’s top target and Terrell hasn’t been much of a detriment to his success. Evans should be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie running mate Egbuka should also be in lineups.

Over/under: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 64% (7th highest)


Projected score: Bengals 27, Browns 20

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has yet to sign with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford played six full games as the team’s lead back last season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy points. He was also the team’s lead back for most of 2023 and finished 16th in RB fantasy points (25th in PPG) while piling up 1,132 yards and nine TDs. It’s yet to be seen how much Sampson will contribute, but Ford is safe to view as a RB2/flex option this week against a suspect Bengals defense.

Over/under: 47 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 73% (3rd highest)


Projected score: Colts 23, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Shadow Report: Free agency and injuries have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, recently signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. as the probable Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a fast start with Daniel Jones under center. Upgrade the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren also makes for a fine starting option in his NFL debut.

Over/under: 44.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Colts 55% (14th highest)


Projected score: Patriots 25, Raiders 19

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers

Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit risky as he makes his New England debut while returning from last season’s torn ACL. The good news is that he has an appealing Week 1 matchup at home against a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes will be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow starting WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte can be upgraded.

Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 69% (4th highest)


Projected score: Cardinals 24, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round pick — appeared in seven games as a rookie and did not show particularly well. He completed 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and managed four TDs and five INTs. Especially against an improved Arizona defense, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ pass catchers very risky fantasy plays. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on five career targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) are no better than flex options in deeper leagues.

Over/under: 42.1 (15th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 68% (6th highest)


Projected score: Steelers 20, Jets 18



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Is LaLiga’s American dream over? Why Barça vs. Villarreal in Miami was canceled

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Is LaLiga’s American dream over? Why Barça vs. Villarreal in Miami was canceled


Less than two weeks after LaLiga announced it would stage its first-ever regular-season match outside of Spain, with champions Barcelona taking on Villarreal at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium on Dec. 20, it confirmed on Tuesday that the game was off.

Oct. 21 was meant to be when the presale window opened for match tickets, but instead there came a statement on social media that this had been delayed. That was followed a few hours later by confirmation form LaLiga that the game would not go ahead. It was the latest in a long line of setbacks for the league in its attempts to host a competitive fixture on foreign soil, but certainly the most chastening and high profile.

While top European clubs playing matches against each other abroad is nothing new — with heavyweight clashes on preseason tours and even Super Cup matches now annual events across the globe — so far they have yet to follow the lead of U.S. sports leagues like the NFL and NBA in staging regular-season league fixtures beyond their own borders.

LaLiga’s aborted scheduling of Barcelona vs. Villarreal in Miami was as close as any of Europe’s top leagues have gotten to taking their show on the road. So why did it fall through? Will LaLiga and other leagues keep trying? And why are Real Madrid among the big winners? ESPN’s Alex Kirkland, Sam Marsden and Lizzy Becherano explain what happened and what comes next.


Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: Stream El Clásico LIVE 10/26 on ESPN+ (U.S.)
How Man United’s Rashford has revitalized his career at Barcelona
Ballon d’Or favorite to Madrid bench: What’s going on with Vini Jr.?


LaLiga announced on Oct. 8 that the Miami game was going ahead. How much time and effort did it take to get them to that point?

LaLiga first announced formal plans to hold a regular-season game in the U.S. back in 2018, when it signed a 15-year partnership with Relevent to promote and grow the league in North America. The first failed bid involved Girona vs. Barcelona in January 2019; since then, there have been multiple attempts, including with Villarreal vs. Atlético Madrid in February 2020, and Barça vs. Atlético in December 2024. But it had never gotten as close as this.

Previously, opposition from world governing body FIFA, the Spanish football federation (RFEF), and U.S. Soccer was a major roadblock. But that vanished following Relevent’s successful lawsuits against FIFA and U.S. Soccer, and a post-Luis Rubiales change of leadership at the RFEF led to relations thawing with LaLiga. That left a potentially viable path to making the game happen.

One big hurdle was cleared in August, when the RFEF agreed to pass the Miami game request on to UEFA; then, on Oct. 6, European football’s governing body “reluctantly” approved it, citing issues with FIFA’s under-review rules on the subject. A source told ESPN that U.S. Soccer approved the match being hosted in the United States, while regional confederation Concacaf received a request from the RFEF on Oct. 9 for the match to be played on its territory. As of Tuesday, Concacaf was still deliberating on that request, but LaLiga had long since announced that the game would be going ahead, despite widespread opposition and a lack of clarity from Spain’s sports ministry (CSD).

And now, two weeks later, it’s off. What changed?

Opposition to the project had become more visible, more vocal and more organized in recent weeks. Real Madrid’s stance was no surprise — they said in August they would do what they could to block the plans, asking FIFA, UEFA and the CSD to step in — and in any case they are at odds with LaLiga on a long list of issues ranging from referees and match officials to the club’s continued push for a European Super League.

But in recent days senior players such as Dani Carvajal and Thibaut Courtois have spoken out against the game, with Courtois saying it would “totally affect the integrity of the competition” by unbalancing the format of every team playing each other once at home and once away over the course of the season. Meanwhile, coach Xabi Alonso said: “We’re against the game, because we believe it influences the competition. There isn’t unanimity among all the participating clubs. We haven’t been consulted.” Even Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong and coach Hansi Flick said they didn’t like the idea.

Last weekend’s leaguewide protest, when players paused for the opening 15 seconds of their matches, was organized by club captains and the players’ union AFE. It was an attention-grabbing initiative “to denounce the lack of transparency, dialogue and coherence of LaLiga regarding the possibility of playing a game in the United States.” and it got even more coverage thanks to match broadcasts on the league’s world television feed cutting to exterior shots as the players made their demonstration.

Beyond those dissenting voices, which could possibly have been ignored, there was also the “uncertainty” cited in LaLiga and Relevent’s respective statements. There was the threat of legal action from Real Madrid, and the fact that the CSD — susceptible to political pressure — was yet to formally pronounce on the issue.

There were other minor issues, brushed off by LaLiga sources to ESPN as not being significant, but factors that were cumulatively enough to sow more seeds of doubt. After receiving the application to host a game in the U.S. from the RFEF, Concacaf began to consult key regional and global stakeholders. During the review process, the confederation went to the RFEF with a list of questions before receiving heavy pushback on a variety of topics, including a FIFA rule that pertains to the refereeing for the match, a source told ESPN.

FIFA regulations state: “The host Confederation and FIFA may replace the proposed appointed referees at its sole discretion. Once authorization has been granted, the host Confederation shall notify the host Member, FIFA and the non-host Confederation(s).” Concacaf questioned the RFEF on how officials would approach the officiating of the match, insisting that the confederation of North America, Central America and the Caribbean be in charge of appointing the referees for the game. A source with knowledge of the situation told ESPN that the RFEF did not agree with the policy. Still, despite pushback from the RFEF, Concacaf had neither approved nor denied the request made to host a game in the United States.

There was also the possibility of a congested schedule at Hard Rock Stadium. The Miami Dolphins play an NFL game on Dec. 21, and there is also the chance that the University of Miami will have a game there in the first round of the College Football Playoff, due to take place on Dec. 20. However, while the packed schedule would not have been ideal for the parties involved, stadium sources told ESPN they were confident that the field would be able to accommodate all events.

Therefore, the full picture isn’t yet clear, but with just two months to go, the clock was ticking — “there is insufficient time to properly execute an event of this scale,” Relevent said on Tuesday — and with so many questions still unanswered, organizers couldn’t risk putting tickets on sale this week, only to later suffer what would have been an even more embarrassing retreat.

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Atletico Madrid and Osasuna protest against Miami game

Atletico Madrid and Osasuna’s players stand still after the kick-off whistle in protest against the Villarreal vs. Barcelona game in Miami.

Was anyone actually in favor of this game, besides the organizers and the clubs involved?

Good question. Of course, LaLiga, Relevent and the two clubs were in favor, but there was very little public support from elsewhere. UEFA’s statement spoke of being opposed to domestic games being played abroad, but effectively suggested its hands were tied until it is able to make changes to the regulations. Once UEFA had “reluctantly” approved the game, a source told ESPN that FIFA would not step in to override the decision, suggesting it was one which had to be taken by European football’s governing body. However, according to a source, U.S. Soccer approved the match being hosted in the United States, while Concacaf had not yet turned it down.

All that said, the general opposition to taking the game outside of Spain was quite weak. Even the AFE’s public statements focused on the desire for more information to be made available from LaLiga. They demanded confirmation that the players’ working rights would be respected.

“We were neither for nor against the game being played [in Miami],” Atlético Madrid’s Koke said on Tuesday. “We were asking for transparency.” The AFE president, David Aganzo, had suggested taking the issue to politicians and the CSD, but the general feeling was he had not gone as hard as he could.

Who are the biggest winners and losers here?

Real Madrid have come out of this very well. They will feel their public stance on competitive integrity has been vindicated, and chalk this up as a significant win in their battles for power and influence with LaLiga and its president, Javier Tebas. It’s also a victory for many players, fans and pundits who opposed the Miami game on fairness grounds — with genuine concerns about the integrity of the home/away format being permanently compromised — and those who worried about the longer-term implications for local, match-going fans.

As for losers: the big ones are LaLiga and Tebas, having pushed so hard this time, at the fourth attempt, and lost credibility with this latest withdrawal. It’s not great news for Villarreal either, who took a risk — alienating some fans — with their acceptance of the plan. Ultimately, they were rewarded with nothing in return. They are deeply unhappy with how this was handled, using a club statement to declare their “deep displeasure with LaLiga” over their poor of the match. Barça, meanwhile, miss out on a payday that club president Joan Laporta had said on Sunday would “make up for having to play two games at the Estadi Johan Cruyff,” earlier this season, when having to play at a 6,000-capacity stadium severely dented their matchday revenue while the renovation of their Camp Nou home continues.

And what about the fans? Whether they are winners or losers here may depend on what side of the Atlantic they are on. Barça say they “regret deeply that U.S.-based supporters are denied the opportunity to see an official game in their country.” However, for Villarreal fans, and especially season-ticker holders, it means one of their two biggest home games of the season (the other being Madrid’s visit) is now back at the Estadio de la Cerámica. There were plans in place for supporters to travel to Miami, and for others to be compensated for the loss of a home fixture, but the overriding feeling will be of relief at being able to see their team tackle the Spanish champions on home soil.

Is this the end of the matter? What will it take now for the game to happen?

If we focus on what we know at this early stage, it’s unlikely to be the end of LaLiga’s plans to take a game abroad. Firstly, Tebas has spoken many times about this being a multiyear project. It has failed four times now and he was more fuming than ever after this latest failure. Posting on social media, he made not-so-subtle references to Madrid and the AFE, two of the biggest critics of the proposals.

Tebas wrote, without explicitly naming Madrid: “The ‘integrity of the competition’ argument is invoked by those who have been questioning that same integrity for years, pressuring referees and leaders, constructing distorted narratives, or using political and media pressure as a sporting tool.” His line about others “being drawn into debates about information that was already addressed in 2018 was just an excuse to kill the project” was a nod to the AFE’s demonstrations. “We will keep trying,” he signed off. “This time, we came very close.”

Relevent’s statement, meanwhile, suggests that, in addition to the friction in Spain, the lack of time left to organize the game was a significant hurdle. That can be fixed next time quite easily with better planning.

Dig a little deeper, though, and it’s worth wondering what the consequences of this latest setback will be. Villarreal are especially unhappy with how everything has played out. Coach Marcelino García Toral said it was “disrespectful” how the official announcement was made during his side’s UEFA Champions League defeat to Manchester City on Tuesday. Sources at the club bemoaned the management of the game from start to finish, saying they never got a straight answer about anything.

It begs the question: Would Villarreal be prepared to sign up for another game in the U.S.? And what will other clubs looking in from the outside be thinking? There had already been confusion this week when Barça president Laporta said the club would receive a payment for the Miami game, in contrast to his counterpart at Villarreal, Fernando Roig Negueroles, who had said the opposite. It will leave the other clubs with plenty of questions should LaLiga ask them to move a fixture abroad in the future. What’s really in it for them?

Meanwhile, the issue cannot be parked due to the cancellation of the LaLiga game; Italy’s Serie A is planning to play a match between AC Milan and Como in Perth, Australia, in February.

A working group set up by FIFA is expected to announce recommendations to rule changes regarding the governing of international matches in the coming months. The working group includes representatives from member associations, confederations, European Football Clubs (EFC) and global players’ union FIFPRO, among others. LaLiga will be attentive to any rulings which could make or break their plans moving forward.



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Vols’ Vitello makes MLB history as Giants skipper

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Vols’ Vitello makes MLB history as Giants skipper


After days of negotiations, Tennessee coach Tony Vitello has been named the new manager of the San Francisco Giants, the team announced Wednesday, marking the first time a big league team has hired a manager directly from a college program without any experience as a professional coach.

Vitello — who considered staying at Tennessee, where he won the Men’s College World Series in 2024 — replaces Bob Melvin, who was fired Sept. 29 following an 81-81 season, the Giants’ fourth consecutive year without a playoff berth.

“I’m incredibly honored and grateful for this opportunity,” Vitello said in a statement. “I’m excited to lead this group of players and represent the San Francisco Giants. I can’t wait to get started and work to establish a culture that makes Giants faithful proud.”

Vitello, 47, was regarded as one of the best coaches in college baseball, a high-energy recruiting wizard who built talent-laden teams and turned around a program that had toiled in mediocrity for decades. He emerged as the Giants’ main target after former San Francisco catcher Nick Hundley withdrew from consideration.

By making Vitello his first managerial hire, San Francisco president of baseball operations Buster Posey is banking on Vitello’s success at Tennessee translating to the major leagues. Chosen over former Baltimore Orioles manager Brandon Hyde and two other former big league catchers interviewed by the Giants — Kurt Suzuki and Vance Wilson — Vitello distinguished himself as one of the preeminent coaches in the country during a two-decade career as an assistant and head coach in college, enough so that the Giants were willing to pay the $3 million buyout on his contract, sources said.

“We’re thrilled to welcome Tony to the Giants family,” said Posey in a statement. “Tony is one of the brightest, most innovative, and most respected coaches in college baseball today. Throughout our search, Tony’s leadership, competitiveness, and commitment to developing players stood out. His ability to build strong, cohesive teams and his passion for the game align perfectly with the values of our organization. We look forward to the energy and direction he will bring, along with the memories to be made, as we focus on the future of Giants baseball.”

The closest facsimile to Vitello would be Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy, who spent 25 years coaching in college before joining the San Diego Padres as a minor league manager. Murphy then spent eight years as Brewers bench coach before taking over as manager in 2024, when he won National League Manager of the Year.

Vitello’s move to the major leagues will come at a far more rapid pace. Outside of a first-place NL West finish in 2021, the Giants have finished third or worse in the division every year since 2017. Beyond the dominance of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Giants are seen by evaluators as a less-talented team than San Diego and Arizona as well. San Francisco’s core of first baseman Rafael Devers, shortstop Willy Adames and third baseman Matt Chapman is solid — and could be strengthened this winter via free agent spending, according to sources.

Following more than 10 years as an assistant coach at Missouri, TCU and Arkansas, Vitello took over a moribund Tennessee program before the 2018 season and posted a 341-131 record, advancing to the Men’s College World Series in 2021, 2023 and 2024. With a pair of eventual first-round draft picks and four second-rounders, Tennessee beat Texas A&M to win the school’s first baseball national championship last year.

Vitello, whose boisterous personality endeared him at Tennessee and chafed other SEC schools, enters an entirely different realm in MLB. Whereas college jobs are often defined by the success of recruiting classes, major league teams are constructed by baseball-operations departments with the manager relied upon for clubhouse cohesion, in-game decision-making, bullpen usage and daily media interactions.

Tennessee athletic director Danny White issued a statement Wednesday thanking Vitello for elevating the Vols to a “championship program.”

“Congratulations to Tony on this incredible opportunity to lead the San Francisco Giants,” White wrote. “We wish him the best as he embarks on this new chapter in his career and thank him for everything he has done to transform Tennessee baseball into a championship program.”

The reticence of MLB teams to dip into the college ranks for managers is long established and has run counter to the hiring practices of other professional sports leagues. NFL teams have regularly plucked head coaches from the college ranks, and in the NBA, there is no stigma associated with college coaches. Major league organizations have been more open to hiring coaches from college than managers. Pitching coach Wes Johnson left Arkansas to take the same role with the Minnesota Twins in 2019; he left the Twins three years later to accept the pitching coach job at LSU before joining Georgia as its head coach prior to the 2024 season.

In an interview with ESPN in June, Vitello said his reputation as a rabble-rouser did not bother him and that he had no plans to change his approach to coaching, which called for pushing boundaries.

“I think you don’t know where the line is until you cross it. And then you make an adjustment,” Vitello said. “I don’t want our guys, if they give them a coloring book, I don’t want them just coloring inside the lines. You know, come up with something different.”



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Sources: Trophy logo to return to NBA Finals court

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Sources: Trophy logo to return to NBA Finals court


Back by popular demand, the NBA Finals will have the large Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy logo return to center court as well the Finals script logo on the floor, sources told ESPN’s Shams Charania on Wednesday.

The logos will be painted on the court instead of appearing digitally or via a decal, sources told ESPN.

Fans on social media complained during and after Game 1 of the past Finals between Oklahoma City and Indiana when they saw there were no Finals logo decals on the court.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver noticed the discussions during the Finals and said the league would look into potentially bringing back the distinctive logos that came only on the NBA’s biggest stage.

“I’ve seen some of the chatter on social media around on-court decals,” Silver said on ESPN during the Finals. “People don’t realize they went away a decade ago because there were claims that some of the players [were saying] they were slippery when we had the decals on the floor.”

The last time the large trophy was painted on an NBA Finals court was in 2009.

“Maybe there’s a way around it,” Silver told reporters during the Finals. “To be honest, I hadn’t thought all that much about it until I [saw] it [on social media].

“I’m nostalgic, as well, for certain things. And also, I think for a media-driven culture, whether it’s people watching live or seeing those images on social media, it’s nice when you’re looking back on highlights and they stand out because you see that trophy logo or some other indication that it’s a special event.”





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