Connect with us

Sports

The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 1

Published

on

The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 1


Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Report, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.



All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)


TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI


Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23

Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka

Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s top corner shadowed most weeks last season, including a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a strong 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Evans was out for the Week 8 meeting between the teams, but Terrell also shadowed him in Week 5 back in 2022 (where Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), as well as in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.

Some quick math shows that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG in the four meetings with Terrell, having reached 20 points twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan both out, Evans will be Mayfield’s top target and Terrell hasn’t been much of a detriment to his success. Evans should be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie running mate Egbuka should also be in lineups.

Over/under: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 64% (7th highest)


Projected score: Bengals 27, Browns 20

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has yet to sign with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford played six full games as the team’s lead back last season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy points. He was also the team’s lead back for most of 2023 and finished 16th in RB fantasy points (25th in PPG) while piling up 1,132 yards and nine TDs. It’s yet to be seen how much Sampson will contribute, but Ford is safe to view as a RB2/flex option this week against a suspect Bengals defense.

Over/under: 47 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 73% (3rd highest)


Projected score: Colts 23, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Shadow Report: Free agency and injuries have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, recently signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. as the probable Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a fast start with Daniel Jones under center. Upgrade the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren also makes for a fine starting option in his NFL debut.

Over/under: 44.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Colts 55% (14th highest)


Projected score: Patriots 25, Raiders 19

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers

Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit risky as he makes his New England debut while returning from last season’s torn ACL. The good news is that he has an appealing Week 1 matchup at home against a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes will be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow starting WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte can be upgraded.

Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 69% (4th highest)


Projected score: Cardinals 24, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round pick — appeared in seven games as a rookie and did not show particularly well. He completed 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and managed four TDs and five INTs. Especially against an improved Arizona defense, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ pass catchers very risky fantasy plays. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on five career targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) are no better than flex options in deeper leagues.

Over/under: 42.1 (15th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 68% (6th highest)


Projected score: Steelers 20, Jets 18



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Sports

2026 NBA All-Star: Biggest surprises and snubs as full rosters revealed

Published

on

2026 NBA All-Star: Biggest surprises and snubs as full rosters revealed


As the calendar turns to February, the 2026 NBA All-Star Game is just two weeks away. The starters were announced on Jan. 19 and include Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the West. Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, Jaylen Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Maxey were named the starters in the East.

The reserves were announced on Sunday, including Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James and Kevin Durant in the West, as well as Donovan Mitchell and Karl-Anthony Towns in the East.

ESPN NBA Insiders Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton break down the full East and West rosters, including biggest surprises and snubs, and make their bold predictions.

Which player were you most surprised to see on the roster?

Pelton: LeBron James is the clear choice, but seeing Karl-Anthony Towns pop up was surprising given the pessimism over how he’s played this season on top of the Knicks’ recent slump. I think teammate Mikal Bridges has been New York’s second-best player after starter Jalen Brunson. Given Towns’ track record, the choice is certainly reasonable yet surprising nonetheless.

Kram: LeBron. It sounds silly to be surprised that a player who had made the last 21 All-Star games would make it 22 in a row. But given that James missed the first month and that his counting stats are down in his age-41 season, as well as the fierce competition in the Western Conference player pool, it was a surprise that his was the last name unveiled during the All-Star roster announcement.


Which player were you most surprised to see left off?

Pelton: Kawhi Leonard. Unless this is a secret part of the punishment from the NBA’s investigation into Leonard’s endorsement deal with Aspiration, I don’t get it. Leonard has been a top-10 player this season, and following a dreadful start, the LA Clippers have been one of the league’s hottest teams since Christmas. Anthony Edwards was the only West reserve I would have picked over Leonard. If I was taking a multi-time Finals MVP playing in L.A., Leonard was an easy choice over James.

Kram: Alperen Sengun was a first-time All-Star last season, has improved as a defender and has better counting stats across the board this year while helping lead the Houston Rockets to the second-best point differential in the West. New Rocket Kevin Durant was a shoo-in, but I think Sengun should have given Houston a second All-Star representative, even if that meant Devin Booker missed out and the surprising Phoenix Suns didn’t get a single player on the team.


Are we getting close to enough international All-Stars to do a normal USA/World 12 vs. 12 game?

Pelton: We might be closer to even in terms of internationals than East vs. West. Some of the answer depends on how creative the NBA is willing to get with its definition of international. Donovan Mitchell made the case recently to Andscape’s Marc J. Spears that he’d like to represent Panama, where his grandmother was born. If the NBA pushed every possible case like that or Kyrie Irving (born in Australia, though he grew up in the U.S.), they could get to 12 without diluting the meaning of being an All-Star.

Kram: There are almost enough worthy international players to round out a 12-person roster; if that were the framework this season, the eight actual international All-Stars would likely be joined by Sengun, Lauri Markkanen, Franz Wagner (despite a lack of playing time) and Joel Embiid. (Embiid was born in Cameroon but plays for Team USA internationally; the NBA could also choose to slot Towns, who was born in New Jersey but plays for the Dominican Republic, as an international representative.) Josh Giddey, OG Anunoby and Dillon Brooks have outside cases as well.

However, those players largely don’t have better All-Star cases than the ninth-through-12th-best Americans, so I wouldn’t advocate such a consequential change just yet. Let’s see how the format works with three teams (two American, one international) this year before deciding if the NBA should change the All-Star format once again.


Give us one bold prediction for the All-Star Game/mini-tournament.

Pelton: The NBA enjoys a short-term benefit from changing the format. Drafting teams and introducing a target score (aka the “Elam ending”) resulted in more competitive games initially before devolving into the defense-free play we’ve seen since. I could see the international team in particular taking things seriously and forcing their American opponents to up their game. However, I don’t see this or anything else “fixing” the All-Star Game long-term.

Kram: Victor Wembanyama takes MVP honors. Big men rarely win this award at the All-Star game — it’s gone to a guard or wing in 13 of the last 15 years, with Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the lone exceptions — but Wembanyama is so competitive that he’ll gain an advantage just by taking the event seriously. In his first All-Star game last year, he led his team in scoring (11 points in seven minutes), and he and Chris Paul were disqualified for trying to exploit a loophole in the skills challenge.



Source link

Continue Reading

Sports

Jude Bellingham in tears after Real Madrid injury, ‘an important loss’

Published

on

Jude Bellingham in tears after Real Madrid injury, ‘an important loss’


Coach Álvaro Arbeloa admitted Jude Bellingham is “an important loss” after the midfielder was substituted just 10 minutes into Real Madrid’s 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano on Sunday. The club confirmed on Sunday evening that the issue was with Bellingham’s left hamstring.

Kylian Mbappé scored a 100th-minute penalty to give Madrid the three points in LaLiga after a tough game which saw Rayo’s Jorge de Frutos level after Vinícius Júnior‘s early goal, before the visitors had two players sent off.

The Bernabéu crowd whistled the team pre-match — and again as they struggled during the second half — after Madrid’s midweek defeat at Benfica in the Champions League.

“We don’t know about Jude yet,” Arbeloa said in his post-match news conference, when asked about Bellingham’s injury.

The England international had gone down clutching his thigh after chasing a ball down the right wing with the game still goalless, and after being consoled by teammates, limped off the pitch, looking visibly upset and wiping away tears, as he was replaced by substitute Brahim Díaz.

“[Bellingham] has made a great effort in every game since I’ve been here,” Arbeloa said. “It’s a very important loss, but we have an extraordinary squad.”

Bellingham will now undergo tests to determine the extent of the problem.

The 22-year-old’s injury could be a major concern for England boss Thomas Tuchel ahead of Wembley friendlies against Uruguay and Japan next month.

Bellingham was one of the players — alongside Vinícius — singled out by some fans with whistles before the game, as their names were announced on the stadium loudspeakers.

Bellingham has had an injury-hit season, missing the early part of the campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery last summer.

Mbappé scores last-gasp penalty as Real Madrid edge Rayo
Mourinho on Benfica-Madrid in UCL: We got the king

“I respect the Bernabéu crowd, and I’ll always ask for their support,” Arbeloa said, when asked about the whistles.

Arbeloa insisted that Madrid hadn’t been fortunate to be given nine minutes of added time at the end of the second half, with their winning penalty being awarded in the 98th minute, and Mbappé scoring two minutes later.

“It could have been more,” Arbeloa said. “Every time visiting teams take a goal kick here, it takes a minute.”

The coach admitted that his team need to be more consistent, after a difficult start to his time in charge.

“I’m not Gandalf the White,” Arbeloa said, referring to the fictional wizard. “What I’m getting is what I wanted from my players: commitment and effort.”

Information from PA was used in this report.



Source link

Continue Reading

Sports

Grading Mike LaFleur’s hire, eyeing what’s next for Cards

Published

on

Grading Mike LaFleur’s hire, eyeing what’s next for Cards


TEMPE, Ariz. — After being without a head coach for almost a month, the Arizona Cardinals finally have their choice.

Arizona announced the hiring of 38-year-old Mike LaFleur on Sunday, ending a search that looked similar to previous ones by the Cardinals. As they were in 2023 when they hired Jonathan Gannon, they were once again the last team to make a hire after nine other head coaching vacancies were filled. And for the sixth time in the past 19 years, they hired a first-time NFL coach.

They also kept their pattern of alternating between offensive- and defensive-minded head coaches. LaFleur spent the past five seasons as an offensive coordinator, two with the New York Jets and three with the Los Angeles Rams. Gannon was a defensive-minded coach. He was preceded by Kliff Kingsbury, an offensive coach, who was preceded by Steve Wilks, a defensive coach, who was preceded by Bruce Arians, an offensive coach.

Arizona signed LaFleur to a five-year contract as he sets out to bring Arizona back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021.

Cardinals reporter Josh Weinfuss and NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid break down what the hire could mean for quarterback Kyler Murray and for the Cardinals’ upcoming draft. And NFL analyst Ben Solak provides a grade.

Why Mike LaFleur?

Weinfuss: LaFleur is highly regarded around the league for his offensive acumen. And he represents a branch of the Sean McVay tree, which carries a great deal of cache.

LaFleur is the fourth McVay OC to become a head coach, joining Mike’s brother Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers, Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings and Liam Coen of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The three others led their teams to the playoffs.

LaFleur runs a West Coast style of offense, which would be Murray’s third different offensive style in his eight NFL seasons — should he still be around come OTAs.


Did the Cards wait too long and miss out on the top choices?

Weinfuss: It’s hard to argue that they didn’t, but general manager Monti Ossenfort said during his postseason news conference that Arizona was going to take its time.

It might not have been a matter of waiting too long and missing out on their top choices for the Cardinals, as opposed to not being as attractive of a destination as other teams. That’s mainly because of uncertainty at quarterback, facilities that have consistently received low grades in the annual NFLPA report cards and an owner in Michael Bidwell who has been famously frugal.

Where waiting this long to hire a head coach can and, likely, will hurt the Cardinals will be in hiring a staff. With LaFleur being the last coach hired this cycle, his pool of assistants to hire has been shrinking by the day.


What does this mean for Murray’s future with the Cardinals?

Weinfuss: That’s still to be determined. Murray’s contract situation is well known: He’s under contract until 2028 and has already been guaranteed $39.8 million for 2026, so there are two possibilities for Murray: Let LaFleur pick his guy, which, as an offensive-minded head coach, may be the smartest move, or Bidwell will require Murray to stay on the roster because of all the money he’s paid him for this coming season.

LaFleur hasn’t always been dealt the easiest of hands with quarterbacks. In San Francisco, he had C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer, and in New York he had Zach Wilson. Murray is a step above them talent wise, but LaFleur, who had a front-row seat for Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles the last three seasons, also has worked with an elite QB.


How can LaFleur boost his roster at No. 3 overall in the draft — and will the pick come on offense?

Reid: This roster needs help in multiple spots, so the Cardinals could go in a few different directions — and focus on either side of the ball.

Right tackle is one clear hole on the roster, and either Spencer Fano (Utah) or Francis Mauigoa (Miami) would make a lot of sense. Fano has great movement traits, while Mauigoa is a physical mauler.

But the Cardinals might instead look to add an edge rusher opposite Josh Sweat. Keep an eye on the powerful Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) and explosive David Bailey (Texas Tech). They both know how to get after the QB; both players had 71 pressures in 2025, tied for second most in the FBS.


How would you grade this hire?

Solak: B-. The Cardinals — the last team to fill its head coaching vacancy — clearly did not get their preferred candidate, as they announced the hiring of LaFleur only minutes after it was reported that Klint Kubiak was taking the Raiders job.

LaFleur is a chip off the old Kyle Shanahan block, having spent time as the 49ers’ passing game coordinator under him before taking the offensive coordinator job with Robert Saleh and the Jets. LaFleur never got the plane off the ground with Zach Wilson in New York, and will now be in charge of another young quarterback’s developmental arc, assuming Arizona moves off Kyler Murray and onto a new signal-caller.

There’s a solid ceiling here, as LaFleur is from a prolific coaching tree. But it’s hard to get too excited about what feels like a very run-of-the-mill hire.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending