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The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 3

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The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 3


Welcome to The Playbook for Week 3, which kicked off Thursday with the Dolphins at the Bills.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.



All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)


ATL-CAR | GB-CLE | HOU-JAX | CIN-MIN | PIT-NE | LAR-PHI | NYJ-TB
IND-TEN | LV-WAS | DEN-LAC | NO-SEA | DAL-CHI | ARI-SF | KC-NYG | DET-BAL


Projected score: Packers 24, Browns 15

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft

Fantasy scoop: Quinshon Judkins made his pro debut in Week 2 and played more than expected. The second-round rookie soaked up 10 carries and three targets on 19 snaps. Game script allowed Jerome Ford to lead the Cleveland backfield in snaps (35) for the second week in a row, but he was limited to six carries to go along with his six targets. Dylan Sampson crashed back to earth after a strong Week 1, totaling four carries and three targets on 17 snaps. Judkins played well (71 yards), and his role only figures to increase, although Ford appears to be a real threat for passing down work, with Sampson also likely to chip in here or there. Judkins might work his way into the RB2 mix at some point soon, but he’s safest as a fringe flex this week against a Packers defense that has held opposing backs to 2.4 yards per carry (second lowest) so far this season.

Over/under: 38.7 (Lowest)
Win probability: Packers 81% (2nd highest)


Projected score: Colts 24, Titans 19

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Warren

Shadow Report: Michael Pittman Jr. is a candidate to draw shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed shadowed Courtland Sutton when he was on the field in Week 1, then full-time shadowed Davante Adams on his perimeter routes in Week 2. Both Sutton (granted, Sneed was limited in that game) and Adams put together strong stat lines, but a healthy Sneed is one of the game’s top cover corners, so this matchup is not to be completely disregarded. Pittman doesn’t draw shadows as often as some No. 1 receivers, although Pat Surtain II did travel with him at times in Week 2, which helps explain his 4-40-0 receiving line. Pittman is already a fringe flex option, so he’s safest left on your bench in Week 3.

Over/under: 42.6 (12th highest)
Win probability: Colts 69% (6th highest)


Projected Score: Vikings 21, Bengals 20



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Transfer rumors, news: Real Madrid plot Vinícius Júnior exit

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Transfer rumors, news: Real Madrid plot Vinícius Júnior exit


Vinícius Júnior‘s days at Real Madrid could be numbered, while Juventus striker Dusan Vlahovic is attracting interest from Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Tottenham Hotspur. Join us for the latest transfer news and rumors from around the globe.

Transfers home page | Men’s grades | Women’s grades

TOP STORIES

Sources: Ten Hag interest in Wolves talks
Neymar: Santos confident of new contract
Ex-USWNT coach Sundhage out of Switzerland job

TRENDING RUMORS

– Real Madrid plan to offload Vinícius Júnior in summer 2026, Sport Bild reports. The decision was reportedly made after Los Blancos‘ 2-1 Clásico win over Barcelona 10 days ago. The 25-year-old protested against being substituted by coach Xabi Alonso and had to make a public apology. Club president Florentino Pérez reportedly feels that transferring the Brazil international; will show that no player is bigger than the club. Los Blancos are trying to renew Vini Jr.’s contract despite that stance, as they want to avoid the Brazil international driving down his €150 million valuation through his conduct.

– Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Tottenham Hotspur are continuing to look at the potential opportunity to sign Juventus striker Dusan Vlahovic as a free agent in the summer, according to La Gazzetta dello Sport. The report adds that those three clubs would offer more than what the Bianconeri are offering the Serbia international in a new contract. This comes with Juve and Vlahovic potentially being open to continuing together, but finances could be an issue with Vlahovic currently earning €12m per year and Juventus wanting his salary to be around half of that figure.

– Tottenham Hotspur manager Thomas Frank could be reunited with former Brentford striker Ivan Toney as Spurs lead the race to sign him on loan from Al Ahli, according to TEAMtalk. A permanent move is off the table as clubs don’t want to pay £30m in January, while the 29-year-old would receive a large tax bill if his contract is terminated early. West Ham United and Everton are also interested in Toney, who wants to cement his place in Thomas Tuchel’s England squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Sporting CP‘s Morten Hjulmand is on Juventus’ list of options as they look to sign a midfielder in January, reports Calciomercato. The 26-year-old’s contract includes a €60m release clause, which Sporting don’t generally want to stray far away from and will insist is met for a move to happen in the winter window. Other midfielders being considered by the Bianconeri are Newcastle United‘s Sandro Tonali and Al Hilal‘s Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, although the former would be difficult to sign and there has been no contact for the latter about a January move.

– Bayern Munich are willing to go against their approach to contracts for players over 30 to see off Barcelona’s interest in Harry Kane, according to talkSPORT. The Blaugrana having been linked with the England international as a possible Robert Lewandowski replacement. The 32-year-old already has 22 goals across all competitions, and that has persuaded them to offer him a multi-year contract where they would usually only offer one year to a player of his age.

EXPERT TAKE

play

1:33

Moreno: Vinicius’ behaviour is harming his career

Ale Moreno talks about Vinicius Jr attitude in El Clasico when Xabi Alonso subbed him off and at the players’ scuffle after full time.

OTHER RUMORS

– Real Madrid forward Endrick has agreed to join Lyon on loan in the winter transfer window, subject to both clubs reaching a deal. (Diario AS)

– Liverpool are planning to extend Dominik Szoboszlai‘s contract and are readying a deal that will run until 2030 or 2031. (Nicolò Schira)

– Manchester United are resigned to letting winger Jadon Sancho leave for free in the summer, even though they have an option to extend the Aston Villa loanee’s contract by a year. (talkSPORT)

– Newcastle United are monitoring the progress of Porto striker Samu Aghehowa, while Tottenham Hotspur view him as a replacement for Dominic Solanke. (Football Insider)

– Everton insist that Jarrad Branthwaite won’t leave in January despite Manchester United holding an interest in the centre-back. (TEAMtalk)

– Inter Milan are looking at Sassuolo’s Tarik Muharemovic, Lecce’s Tiago Gabriel and Parma’s Alessandro Circati with centre-back Yann Bisseck‘s interest being piqued by attention from Tottenham Hotspur. (La Gazzetta dello Sport)

– Sevilla are closely monitoring Boca Juniors midfielder Milton Delgado, 20, who impressed with Argentina as they finished runners-up at the Under-20 World Cup. (Estadio Deportivo)

Niklas Füllkrug and his agents have informed West Ham United that the striker wants to leave in January. (Florian Plettenberg)

– Several Bundesliga clubs are interested in Sporting CP forward Rodrigo Ribeiro, who could leave on a January loan with an option to make the deal permanent. (Florian Plettenberg)



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How the NFL is using AI to predict injuries

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From a Virginia lab to NFL training rooms, data and “digital twins” are helping NFL franchises keep players on the field.



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Wrexham CEO: Eriksen wanted no part of TV doc

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Wrexham CEO: Eriksen wanted no part of TV doc


Wrexham chief executive Michael Williamson has said that Christian Eriksen initially rejected their summer approach because the former Manchester United star did not want to appear in the club’s award-winning documentary series.

Eriksen, whose heart stopped beating after he suffered cardiac arrest playing for Denmark at Euro 2020, was a free agent following his departure from Old Trafford when Wrexham, newly promoted to the Championship, made their bold move.

The club’s rise from the National League under Hollywood owners Rob Mac and Ryan Reynolds has has been told in the Welcome to Wrexham series, which has won multiple Emmy awards and other industry honours.

Speaking to That Wrexham Podcast, Williamson, who was on the Inter Milan board when Eriksen played for the Serie A club from 2020-21, said: “I reached out to the agent and what was really interesting in the first call is the reaction was, ‘We don’t want his story to be in a documentary, because we’ve had plenty of opportunities for a documentary for his story.’

“He thought we were calling not because of his footballing capabilities, but because we wanted a documentary story.

“I’m like, ‘Wait a minute. I didn’t even think about that’. Obviously, I’m aware of it, but that wasn’t the reason we were calling.

“We were calling because he could potentially be an interesting footballer, we’re looking for players that could play for us in the Championship. Difference makers that could help us be competitive on the pitch.

“After I explained what our actual objectives were, trying to build a competitive squad and that I wasn’t even thinking about it from a documentary perspective, we had a great conversation.”

Williamson said the idea of signing Eriksen was “kicked around,” but the midfielder wanted to continue playing for a “first-tier club.”

– Wrexham hail ‘statement win’ over Coventry with Moore hat trick
– From Liverpool to Wrexham, are U.S. owners taking over English football?
– Ex-Man United player pundits don’t help club – Eriksen

The 33-year-old eventually joined Bundesliga side VfL Wolfsburg in September, but Williamson said Wrexham’s transfer business benefited from their interest in Eriksen being made public.

“I wasn’t expecting the agent to come out and say what he said because I typically expect those conversations to be confidential,” Williamson said.

“But what it did was it sent a signal around the players’ market, if you will. That we were serious about being competitive.

“I think that was important because a lot of people were just saying, ‘OK, what’s Wrexham doing? You know, they’ve been a little bit quiet at the start of the market, but now they want to be competitive.’

“It opened up doors and conversations to bring in players like Kieffer [Moore], Josh [Windass], [Liberato] Cacace, Lewis O’Brien, Conor Coady.”

Wrexham subsequently broke their transfer record three times, spending a reported £10 million ($13m) on Wales striker Nathan Broadhead and £33m in total.

The Welsh club are 16th in a congested Championship table, five points from the playoffs.

“It’s going to take a few windows to really build a squad that is pushing for promotion. But it’s only going to get better and that’s what I’m excited about,” Williamson said.



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