Sports
The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 3
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 3, which kicked off Thursday with the Dolphins at the Bills.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
ATL-CAR | GB-CLE | HOU-JAX | CIN-MIN | PIT-NE | LAR-PHI | NYJ-TB
IND-TEN | LV-WAS | DEN-LAC | NO-SEA | DAL-CHI | ARI-SF | KC-NYG | DET-BAL
Projected score: Packers 24, Browns 15
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy scoop: Quinshon Judkins made his pro debut in Week 2 and played more than expected. The second-round rookie soaked up 10 carries and three targets on 19 snaps. Game script allowed Jerome Ford to lead the Cleveland backfield in snaps (35) for the second week in a row, but he was limited to six carries to go along with his six targets. Dylan Sampson crashed back to earth after a strong Week 1, totaling four carries and three targets on 17 snaps. Judkins played well (71 yards), and his role only figures to increase, although Ford appears to be a real threat for passing down work, with Sampson also likely to chip in here or there. Judkins might work his way into the RB2 mix at some point soon, but he’s safest as a fringe flex this week against a Packers defense that has held opposing backs to 2.4 yards per carry (second lowest) so far this season.
Over/under: 38.7 (Lowest)
Win probability: Packers 81% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Colts 24, Titans 19
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Warren
Shadow Report: Michael Pittman Jr. is a candidate to draw shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed shadowed Courtland Sutton when he was on the field in Week 1, then full-time shadowed Davante Adams on his perimeter routes in Week 2. Both Sutton (granted, Sneed was limited in that game) and Adams put together strong stat lines, but a healthy Sneed is one of the game’s top cover corners, so this matchup is not to be completely disregarded. Pittman doesn’t draw shadows as often as some No. 1 receivers, although Pat Surtain II did travel with him at times in Week 2, which helps explain his 4-40-0 receiving line. Pittman is already a fringe flex option, so he’s safest left on your bench in Week 3.
Over/under: 42.6 (12th highest)
Win probability: Colts 69% (6th highest)
Projected Score: Vikings 21, Bengals 20
Lineup locks: Chase Brown, Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, T.J. Hockenson
Fantasy scoop: Joe Burrow is out for three-plus months, which means Jake Browning will take over as Bengals quarterback. Browning played a majority of the snaps in seven games in place of Burrow in 2023. Browning averaged 19.1 fantasy PPG those weeks, which was fourth best among QBs during the span. The Bengals were very pass-heavy with Burrow under center in 2023 (12% pass rate over expected) and, while still pass-first, they were more balanced with Browning (+4%). He totaled 14 TDs and 7 INTs in those seven games and adds just enough with his legs to place him in the QB2 mix going forward. Chase was limited to a 29-383-1 receiving line in six games with Browning (12.2 FF PPG) in 2023, but that was prior to his big 2024 breakout and he was very productive with Browning under center last week (14-165-1). Tee Higgins produced 15-328-3 in five games (13.2 PPG) with Browning in 2023 and is now more of a WR3/flex. Browning is obviously a downgrade from Burrow, but he averaged 267 passing yards per game in 2023 and threw at least one TD pass in all seven of those games. Brown and Chase remain lineup locks.
Fantasy scoop: Minnesota will be without J.J. McCarthy and Aaron Jones this week. McCarthy’s absence shouldn’t affect the passing game much, as, at this point his young career, he might not be much better than replacement Carson Wentz (McCarthy totaled 301 yards, two TDs and three INTs during Weeks 1-2). Jefferson and Hockenson can remain in lineups. Jones’ injury means Mason should be in lineups. The 26-year-old has minimal competition for snaps (Zavier Scott is next up on the depth chart), is a terrific rusher (career 5.2 YPC ranks third and 2.5 YAC ranks first among RBs with 200-plus carries since he entered the league) and was actually used a bit as a receiver last week (career-high 14% target share). Mason will be very busy against a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points and a league-high three TDs to opposing RBs.
Over/under: 41.3 (13th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 54% (14th highest)
Projected score: Steelers 22, Patriots 22
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf
Fantasy scoop: It was expected that second-round rookie TreVeyon Henderson was going to take lead back duties from Rhamondre Stevenson in New England this season. That hasn’t happened … at least not yet. After out-snapping Henderson 45-23 in Week 1, Stevenson held a 36-16 edge last week. In addition to dominating the snaps, Stevenson holds an 18-8 edge in carries, 9-8 edge in targets and 33-26 edge in routes. Henderson has played well when called on (4.6 YPC, and he caught all eight of his targets for 54 yards) and his role only figures to grow, but at least for now, he should be relegated to the fantasy bench. Stevenson (169 yards on 25 touches this season) is seeing just enough work to place him in the flex discussion against a Steelers defense that allowed 16-plus fantasy points to both Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III.
Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Steelers 51% (Lowest)
Projected score: Eagles 27, Rams 23
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown
Fantasy scoop: Eagles wide receivers are off to a very slow start, but don’t panic just yet. As noted last week, Brown and DeVonta Smith were slowed by Dallas’ extremely zone-heavy scheme in the opener. The team made an effort to get them going in Week 2, and while Brown was held to an ugly 27 yards, he was peppered with nine targets (41% share). Smith was slightly better, totaling 53 yards on six targets. Pass volume has been down (45 total pass attempts) and all five of the offensive TDs have come on the ground (compared to 58% in 2024). Both receivers remain featured pieces of a good Eagles offense. Brown is still a lineup lock and Smith is best viewed as a fringe WR3.
Shadow Report: Adams can expect to see shadow coverage from Quinyon Mitchell. Philly’s top corner traveled with George Pickens in Week 1 and, though it wasn’t the entire game, he shadowed Hollywood Brown on six of his first seven perimeter routes last week. Why Adams and not Nacua? Similar to CeeDee Lamb, Nacua spends a lot of time in the slot, whereas Pickens and Adams primarily align out wide. Mitchell, one of the game’s top young corners, will see a ton of Adams, whereas Nacua will work often against Cooper DeJean in the slot. The Rams’ top two receivers will still be extremely busy (they both have a 33% target share this season), so even in what might be a harder matchup than usual, they remain top fantasy options.
Over/under: 49.3 (4th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 63% (8th highest)
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Jets 19
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Breece Hall, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, Emeka Egbuka
Shadow Report: Evans is a candidate for shadow coverage courtesy of Sauce Gardner. Gardner did not shadow against Buffalo’s wide receiver rotation last week, but did the last time he faced a clear No. 1 perimeter target: DK Metcalf in Week 1. Gardner was on Metcalf on all 29 of his perimeter routes, holding Pittsburgh’s top receiver to 12.3 fantasy points. Shadowed in both Week 1 (A.J. Terrell Jr.) and Week 2 (Derek Stingley Jr.), Evans is off to a slow start, totaling a 10-107-0 receiving line on 19 targets. Gardner presents a tough matchup, though Evans’ 29% target share is enough to keep him squarely in the WR2 mix.
Over/under: 46.1 (7th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 76% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Commanders 27, Raiders 19
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: Austin Ekeler is out for the season, which opens the door for Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez to handle the Washington backfield. Croskey-Merritt (34 snaps, 14 carries, 15 routes, 2 targets this season) is the top bet to lead the unit in snaps and carries moving forward. However, McNichols (26 snaps, four carries, 10 routes, zero targets) is likely to take on a sizable chunk of Ekeler’s passing down role, and Rodriguez (inactive in Weeks 1-2) is a capable short-yardage/goal line option. The Raiders have locked down RBs pretty well (fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed), so while Croskey-Merritt is the top fantasy option of the unit, he’s best left on benches in Week 3.
Shadow Report: The Raiders have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, which is hardly a surprise considering their shaky cornerbacks room. That’s good news for McLaurin, Samuel and rookie Jaylin Lane, who will face off with Eric Stokes, Kyu Blu Kelly and Darnay Holmes this week. Upgrade the Washington WR room.
Over/under: 46.4 (6th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 75% (4th highest)
Projected score: Falcons 24, Panthers 21
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, Drake London, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: Is Year 5 the charm for Kyle Pitts? The fantasy results haven’t been spectacular (7-59-0 and 4-37-0 receiving lines), but the 24-year-old has a career-high 21% target share through two games. He’s been on the field for 78% of Atlanta’s snaps and has run a route on 82% of the team’s pass plays, both of which are also career-high marks. Pitts’ usage is enough to put him in the fringe TE1 mix, especially against a Carolina defense that has allowed a league-high 188 yards to tight ends through two games.
Shadow Report: McMillan is a good bet to draw shadow coverage from Terrell this week, assuming of course that he is able to play. Terrell, who left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury, shadowed Mike Evans in Week 1 and has a history of traveling with most clear No. 1 perimeter receivers. That’s the case for McMillan, who has aligned out wide on 84% of his routes and leads Carolina with 19 targets (22% share). Terrell did a nice job on Evans in Week 1, but especially considering his injury, there’s minimal reason for concern here. McMillan is a fringe WR2.
Over/under: 44.6 (10th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 62% (9th highest)
Projected score: Jaguars 22, Texans 20
Lineup locks: Brian Thomas Jr., Nico Collins
Fantasy scoop: Nick Chubb has settled in as Houston’s clear lead back, and that was further confirmed by Dameon Pierce being a healthy scratch on Monday night. Chubb handled 12 carries and a pair of targets on 24 snaps, which allowed him to gain 72 yards and one TD. Chubb was, however, limited to 52% of the snaps (he played 49% in Week 1), deferring the other 48% to Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale. Chubb is running the ball fairly well, but he remains in a timeshare and without much of a role as a receiver. He’s a flex option against the Jaguars. Marks (three carries and one target in Week 2) should see an expanded role as the season progresses, especially as a receiver, so he’s not the worst end-of-bench stash.
Shadow Report: Thomas is a good bet to see Derek Stingley Jr. shadow coverage this week. Houston’s top corner traveled with Davante Adams in Week 1 and Mike Evans in Week 2, aligning against them on a combined 44 of their 49 perimeter routes. Adams managed 7.2 fantasy points and Evans was limited to 10.6. Thomas and Stingley faced off in Week 13 last season, and though Thomas had a decent fantasy day (87 scrimmage yards and one TD on five touches), he caught just two of seven targets when covered by Stingley. Thomas posted a 5-76-1 receiving line in the Week 4 meeting, though he wasn’t shadowed in that game. Thomas is off to a very slow start to 2025 (69 yards and a rushing TD on six touches), but his target share remains strong (27%). Even in a tough matchup, he should be in lineups as a fringe WR1.
Over/under: 41.1 (14th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 57% (13th highest)
Projected score: Chargers 23, Broncos 22
Lineup locks: Ladd McConkey, Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen
Fantasy scoop: Troy Franklin was quiet as a situational player throughout his rookie season and even in Week 1, but perhaps we saw the start of a breakout season on Sunday. The 2024 fourth-round pick played 85% of the snaps, was targeted nine times (30% share) and totaled 100 yards and one TD on nine touches. Franklin’s big game and Denver’s wide-open No. 2 WR slot are enough to make Franklin worthy of a waiver add, though it’s worth noting that he played only 58% of the snaps in Week 1. A return to irrelevance is possible, especially with Sutton, Marvin Mims, Pat Bryant and, perhaps someday, Evan Engram in the mix, but it’s also possible the second-year receiver goes down as one of the surprise breakouts of 2025. He’s a deep league flex against the Chargers.
Shadow Report: I wouldn’t call it a lock, but Quentin Johnston could draw Pat Surtain II shadow coverage this week. Surtain tends to shadow clear No. 1 perimeter targets, as he did full time against Calvin Ridley in Week 1 and part time against Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 2. Johnston might not be Los Angeles’ top target, but with McConkey and Allen in the slot so often, Johnston (81% perimeter), who has three TDs in two games, might get the Surtain treatment. We’ve seen that in the past, with Surtain shadowing Mike Williams over Allen (2022) and Joshua Palmer over McConkey (2024). Granted, Allen, Williams and Palmer were sidelined, but Surtain did shadow Johnston full time in Week 17 back in 2023, and Johnston totaled 29 yards on five targets in the game. Johnston’s strong play and Los Angeles’ pass-heavy offense are enough to keep him in the WR3 discussion, but the bust risk is higher than usual this week.
Over/under: 45 (9th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 57% (12th highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Saints 17
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy scoop: Week 2 gave us little additional clarity on the Seattle backfield. Zach Charbonnet remained the “1A” back and now holds an edge over Ken Walker III in snaps (64 to 43), carries (27 to 23) and routes (22 to 16), with Walker leading in targets (four to zero). Charbonnet’s lead back role hasn’t led to production, as he has totaled 57 yards and one TD on 27 carries (2.1 YPC) and has yet to see a target. Walker struggled in Week 1 but exploded for 118 yards and one TD on 14 touches in Week 2. The production very well could lead to a larger role moving forward, but keep in mind that his share of the snaps, routes and targets were all lower in Week 2 than they were in Week 1. For now, this remains a situation best avoided, but Walker’s strong showing is enough to make him the preferred RB2/flex of the two.
Shadow Report: With two weeks in the books, the Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the second fewest to the perimeter. Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and the rest of the New Orleans wide receiver room should be downgraded against Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon (if he returns from injury) and Josh Jobe.
Over/under: 39.3 (15th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 70% (5th highest)
Projected score: Cowboys 26, Bears 26
Lineup locks: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Rome Odunze, George Pickens, DJ Moore, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Both quarterbacks in this game should be considered strong starting options, if not full-on lineup locks. Both defenses are off to horrific starts, with Dallas allowing 30.3 fantasy points to Russell Wilson and 24.3 points to Jalen Hurts, and Chicago surrendering 22.2 points to J.J. McCarthy and 34.0 points to Jared Goff. Williams sits 10th among QBs in fantasy points and fourth in rushing yards. The good matchup vaults him up the Week 3 rankings. Dak Prescott is fresh off a 361-yard effort against the Giants and is a back-end QB1 this week.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Chicago’s receivers against a Dallas defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers, as well as the most to the perimeter. Odunze and Moore will see plenty of Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam on the boundary, with Olamide Zaccheaus facing off with DaRon Bland or, if Bland remains out, Reddy Steward in the slot. With Bland out last week, Giants slot man Wan’Dale Robinson went for 142 yards and a score on 10 targets, so Zaccheaus will be a deep sleeper if Bland remains sidelined.
Shadow Report: Chicago’s top corner, Jaylon Johnson, is out for the season and slot man Kyler Gordon missed both Weeks 1-2 with a hamstring injury. Chicago’s man-heavy defense has, in turn, allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. This week, Lamb and Pickens stand to benefit against Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright (Johnson’s replacement) and either Gordon or Nick McCloud. Upgrade the Dallas receivers.
Over/under: 52 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 51% (15th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 25, Cardinals 22
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Harrison is coming off a rough Week 2 outing in which he was limited to 27 yards on five targets. This, of course, comes after he posted a 5-71-1 receiving line on six targets in Week 1. Harrison’s 21% target share isn’t going to cut it for a player expected to be an elite offensive player, but the good news is that he’s been on the field for 90% of Arizona’s pass plays and overall pass volume will increase. The Cardinals haven’t had to throw much, as they’ve led on 70% of their offensive snaps (third highest), but, once adjusted for game script, they have the league’s fourth-pass-heaviest offense. Harrison needs to be better to justify “lineup lock” status, but he is worthy of WR3 status against the 49ers.
Over/under: 47 (5th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 62% (10th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 25, Giants 21
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Malik Nabers, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: After Tyrone Tracy Jr. dominated the Giants’ backfield in Week 1, it was Cam Skattebo who took control last week. The rookie soaked up 11 carries and three targets on 33 snaps (18 routes), compared to five carries and five targets on 27 snaps (17 routes) for Tracy and one carry and one target on four snaps (one route) for Devin Singletary. A hot-hand approach seems to be the game plan for New York, which means neither back can be trusted this week against the Chiefs.
Over/under: 45.2 (8th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 64% (7th highest)
Projected score: Ravens 29, Lions 26
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Mark Andrews has fallen off the fantasy radar. Once a superstar, Andrews has managed just 7 yards on four targets through two games. And that’s despite having played 78% of the snaps and with Isaiah Likely out of the lineup. Andrews figures to hit for the occasional touchdown (he had 11 in 2024), but his dwindling target share has made him unusable in fantasy. He should be buried on your bench for the time being.
Over/under: 54.6 (Highest)
Win probability: Ravens 59% (11th highest)
Sports
Arne Slot: Liverpool’s new signing Jérémy Jacquet ‘a very big talent’
Arne Slot has described defender Jérémy Jacquet as a “very big talent” ahead of his summer move to Liverpool.
Slot’s side agreed an initial £55 million ($74.6m) deal with Rennes for Jacquet on deadline day, with the centre-back set to move to Anfield in July.
He had been the subject of interest from a host of other European clubs, including Chelsea, however Liverpool accelerated their long-term interest in the player last weekend.
“Very pleasing, of course,” Slot said. “He’s a very big talent and maybe even more than talent but we speak about talent because of his age.
“Second, because we weren’t the only one interested in him so it’s a big compliment to the people working really hard to sign players.
“Such a big talent and another example of the model we’re using at this club — young, very talented players sometimes at the start of their careers or sometimes already a little bit a few years into their career but always players that are young and can improve us in the short term but also definitely in the long term.
“We’ve signed a lot of them recently and like I’ve said many times in the mid-long term future of this club, and even the short term, is in a very good place.”
Liverpool are currently sixth in the Premier League table and will hope to bolster their chances of a top four finish with a victory over Manchester City at Anfield on Sunday.
“The game we played over there [in the 3-0 defeat at Etihad Stadium], we were outplayed completely in the first half for large parts,” Slot said.
“It’s another moment for us to see where are in the development of this team.
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“That being said, we know the importance of a result on Sunday but that goes for all teams in the Premier League this weekend — it’s the end phase of the season so results matter more and more.
“They’re a very good team that even beat the team we beat last weekend without their starters so that tells you, combined with the game against them, what a force City still is and always will be.”
Reflecting on Liverpool’s injury situation, Slot added: “Jeremie [Frimpong] will definitely not train this week so he is not available for the weekend.
“With Joe [Gomez], we have a little bit of hope that he might train Saturday so not available to start but maybe available to help the team if needed because, as you know, there are not many defenders available at the moment.”
Sports
Premier League desperation rankings: Judging all 20 teams by transfer window panic
January transfers usually don’t work out. Granted, most transfers usually don’t work out, but the winter window is when an already-inefficient market becomes a place where you’re paying 80 cents for the opportunity to guess heads or tails on a coin flip with a 20-cent payout.
January signings tend to have about a 20% markup when compared with similar signings made in the summer. Over the past decade, there have been very few — if any — teams who made a big winter signing and then got carried by that player to a title that wouldn’t have otherwise happened. And one study found that about 50% of strikers signed in this window have gone on to score zero goals from their arrival through the end of the season.
This isn’t to say that January signings are all destined to fail. Just look at Virgil van Dijk, Bruno Fernandes or Martin Ødegaard. But in most cases, if you’re spending lots of money on signings that you know are going to cost extra and are unlikely to make a massive difference between now and the end of the season, then you’re desperate.
And, well, Premier League clubs have spent more than €400 million on transfers over the past month, while no other league spent more than €230 million. The most desperate clubs in the world are the ones in the richest league in the world because the average level of play has never been higher, and neither has the reward for finishing higher up in the table.
Which teams, though, were the most desperate in this transfer window that closed Monday? We’ve ranked all 20 Premier League teams from the least to the most desperate.
Not desperate, but they could’ve been
20. Liverpool
19. Wolverhampton Wanderers
18. Arsenal
17. Newcastle United
16. Burnley
One of my favorite recurring bits of commentary, fan reaction and general internet angst is this one about Liverpool. The team spent a club record amount of money and added seven new players this past summer, they let a bunch of key players leave, and it totally disrupted the progress and cohesion of the team. So, therefore, the solution to this problem must be: to sign even more new players.
Liverpool have a lot of injuries, they’re likely to end up in a three-for-two battle with Chelsea and Manchester United for the final two spots in the Champions League (even with a possible extra fifth place), and they have a decent shot at winning the Champions League. They responded to that by … not signing anyone. This should surprise absolutely no one.
The last time they were in a similar position, they finished the season with Nat Phillips and Rhys Williams as their starting center backs — and still qualified for the Champions League. They did make a €60 million signing at center back, of course, but Rennes’ star Jérémy Jacquet won’t join the club until the summer.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have depth to spare, going two or three deep at every position. Despite the furor over their 3-2 loss to Manchester United last weekend, they’ve remained big favorites to win the league. A week later, they’re even bigger favorites to win the league after Manchester City and Aston Villa dropped points. Newcastle, meanwhile, continue to operate in a way that I don’t really understand — what is the Saudi ownership group actually trying to achieve here by not throwing their financial weight around more?
At the other end of the table, Wolves and Burnley have both made some minor moves — both ins and outs — as they each seem resigned to the fact that they won’t be in the Premier League next season. Wolves’ one big move was an outgoing one: They’re collecting close to €50 million in exchange for allowing Jørgen Strand Larsen to move to Crystal Palace.
We signed someone — but he’s not playing any time soon
15. Brentford
14. AFC Bournemouth
13. Sunderland
Brentford and Sunderland both signed young players you’ve probably never heard of (Kaye Furo and Nilson Angulo, anyone?), and Bournemouth let their best player (Antoine Semenyo) leave for Man City and then signed a couple of much-more expensive young players who you actually might have heard of (Rayan and Alex Tóth). None of these teams are doing anything where the goal is to maximize the number of points they win this season.
We signed someone — but he’s going to be playing for us for a long time
12. Fulham
It felt like a big deal when Oscar Bobb was injured last season … as in, Manchester City appeared to be relying on him to play significant minutes as part of their forward rotation. A year-and-a-half later, he’s off to Fulham for a fee (€31 million) that seems (a) way too low for a 22-year-old I was able to write that previous sentence about, and (b) way too high for a player who has a goal and two assists in seven Premier League starts. He has attempted eight total shots in the league.
That said, I don’t hate the risk for Fulham, who aren’t in danger of being relegated this season but need the squad to get younger as soon as possible. Now, I would not have felt the same way about the potential, similarly priced move for PSV’s Ricardo Pepi, but that fell apart on the last day of the window.
We’ll take a small bite, why not?
11. Brighton & Hove Albion
10. Leeds United
9. Everton
8. Nottingham Forest
Using the projections from Simon Tinsley’s website, Analytic.Football, all these teams have a combined 2% chance of finishing in the top five and a combined 17% chance of being relegated. All of the relegation equity comes from Leeds and Forest, who both signed a player or two on loan, while Forest also signed Man City’s backup keeper Stefan Ortega, permanently.
The meager Champions League probabilities come just from Brighton and Everton. Neither team made any permanent transfers — just a couple of loans to add some depth and plug some minor holes.
We have our feet in the freezer and our heads in the oven
7. Crystal Palace
There’s a joke among statisticians that if your head is in the oven and your feet are in the freezer, then your average body temperature would suggest that everything is fine. And I think that just about sums up the current situation at Palace.
Their head coach Oliver Glasner already announced that he’s leaving after the season, they let their club captain, Marc Guéhi, leave for City, and star striker Jean-Philippe Mateta announced he wanted to leave, only for AC Milan to pull out of a deal on deadline day. This season is clearly a wash … right?
Well, they also spent €90 million combined on winger Brennan Johnson and striker Jørgen Strand Larsen. Johnson was a fine signing for a team that badly needed forward depth, but JSL literally has one goal this season, and he’s a striker. He’s barely attempting more than one shot per game. They also brought in Evann Guessand on loan from Aston Villa. With the Champions League out of reach, I guess this is all for a potential UEFA Conference League run?
1:39
Has Crystal Palace’s transfer strategy let them down again?
James Olley examines the collapse of Jean-Philippe Mateta’s move to AC Milan and what it says about Palace’s recruitment strategy.
We fired our coaches but didn’t sign any new players
6. Manchester United
5. Chelsea
There’s the new manager bump, and then there’s whatever is happening at both of these clubs, who have scored 16 goals from 10.6 xG in Liam Rosenior’s and Michael Carrick’s first three matches. Can the performances catch up with the results? It usually doesn’t work that way.
We just wanted a better, younger version of what we already had
4. Tottenham Hotspur
I think Conor Gallagher is a fantastic, Champions League-quality midfielder. He’s right at the beginning of his prime years, and Spurs got him for a €40 million fee — less than Palace paid to bring in Strand Larsen, who is the same age. In a vacuum, this is a solid move for the team currently 14th in the table.
In reality, Gallagher is a hard-working, glue-guy-type midfielder, and Tottenham already have a bunch of those. The midfield still doesn’t really offer any skill at the main thing midfielders are supposed to do: pass the ball.
We’re sure doing a lot
3. West Ham United
2. Manchester City
Two wins from their past three have the Hammers at least within touching distance of 17th place. They’re still heavy favorites to be relegated, but there’s enough of a chance that they survive that you could at least make the case that a bunch of “win-now” signings would be worth it.
It seems as if they’ve tried to both plan for a future in the Championship and improve the team right now. How else to explain the decision to let Lucas Paquetá leave for a €42.25 million return to Brazil while at the same time bringing in 27-year-old forward Valentín Castellanos from Lazio? They’ve signed two other players: 22-year-old Pablo from Gil Vicente in Portugal and 30-year-old Adama Traoré from Fulham.
Back at the other end of the table, Man City’s transfer business continues to baffle. They paid an extra €23 million to bring in Palace defender Marc Guéhi, who would’ve been a free agent after the season. And then they paid €72 million to sign 26-year-old winger Semenyo, who has been great for Bournemouth but doesn’t really seem as if he helps with a position of need for a team with plenty of excellent attackers.
In a league in which there are real spending controls now, you don’t spend nearly €100 million on transfer fees for those two players unless you’re desperate.
We don’t care about the future because the present is a gift
1. Aston Villa
Villa are the second-oldest team in the league by average age. They’ve signed and loaned two players in; they’ve transferred and loaned two players out. The average age of the players who left: 25.5; the average age of the players who arrived: 27.5.
They’ve signed Douglas Luiz on loan from Juventus — and they badly need midfield depth — but you only spend €2 million on a 15-game loan when you’re desperate. This team don’t have unlimited money, and the squad is going to need to start getting younger really soon, but Villa have instead invested €21 million into signing 28-year-old Tammy Abraham. It doesn’t get more “win-now” than those two moves.
Villa are currently seven points clear of sixth-place Liverpool. They just spent a lot of money to make sure that gap doesn’t get closed up over the next three months.
Sports
T20 World Cup to start on Saturday after chaotic build-up – SUCH TV
Cricket’s T20 World Cup begins Saturday after an acrimonious build‑up overshadowed by political turmoil, with Bangladesh kicked out and Pakistan refusing to face arch-rivals and co-hosts India.
When the first ball is finally bowled after a chaotic lead-in, Pakistan will open the tournament against the Netherlands in Colombo.
Defending champions and tournament favourites India will make their tournament bow in the night match on day one against the United States in Mumbai, carrying the hopes of a billion-plus home cricket supporters.
Led by Suryakumar Yadav, India will start as firm tournament favourites and are expected to ease into the Super Eight stage from Group A.
But they will be wary of the United States, who are looking to take down another cricketing powerhouse, having shocked Pakistan to make the Super Eights in 2024.
Former champions Australia and England are also strong contenders to lift the trophy and deny holders India the title for a record second straight time.
The 2021 winners Australia have been hit hard by the absence of pace spearhead Pat Cummins, who was ruled out with a lower back injury.
Pace bowler Josh Hazlewood will miss the early stages as he recovers from hamstring and Achilles injuries.
Led by Mitchell Marsh, the Australians should still ease into the next round from Group B against Ireland, who they play first on Wednesday, plus co-hosts Sri Lanka Oman and Zimbabwe.
Harry Brook’s England, full of confidence after a 3-0 T20 series win in Sri Lanka this week, are expected to make the Super Eights from a Group C that also features two-time winners West Indies, debutants Italy, Nepal and Scotland.
Brook, under intense scrutiny after having to apologise for an incident with a night club bouncer in New Zealand last year, takes charge at a global tournament for the first time since he replaced Jos Buttler as white ball captain.
England, who start with a match against Nepal on Sunday in Mumbai, won the tournament in 2010 and 2022.
Scotland, after their 11th-hour call-up to replace Bangladesh, will take guard on the opening day when they face the West Indies in Kolkata.
Football powerhouse Italy will make an appearance at a cricket World Cup for the first time, and will kick off against the Scots in Kolkata on Monday.
South Africa, the runners-up in 2024, have never won a white ball World Cup, but are buoyed by winning the World Test Championship last year.
They will be a threat but must first emerge from a tough-looking Group D that contains dangerous opponents in New Zealand and Afghanistan.
They begin against Canada on Monday in Ahmedabad, with the UAE the other team in that group.
The top two teams from each of the four groups of five teams will advance to the Super Eights, with the top four making the semi-finals.
Politics, pullouts
There will be relief at the weekend when the action gets under way finally after weeks of political posturing that has dominated the build-up to 10th edition of the showpiece tournament.
Bangladesh refused to play in India, citing security concerns, as relations between the two countries soured and were kicked out by the International Cricket Council (ICC) from England’s Group C.
The ICC is led by Jay Shah, the former Indian cricket board secretary and son of the powerful Indian home minister Amit Shah.
Pakistan, who had backed Bangladesh’s plea to have their games moved to Sri Lanka, were cleared to play by the Islamabad government but they ordered the team not to play the marquee group clash against fierce rivals India on February 15.
According to media reports, the ICC is still waiting formal communication from the Pakistan Cricket Board on the boycott, leaving the door slightly ajar for a last-minute deal to get the game on.
If India are awarded a walkover, Pakistan will lose two points and take a big hit to their net run rate.
If any of their other three Group A games are lost to the weather then it could make it almost impossible for Pakistan to qualify.
Pakistan’s pullout will result in a loss of millions of dollars in revenue for broadcasters, and will be a huge letdown for fans on both sides.
The crisis was triggered last month when India’s cricket board ordered the IPL’s Kolkata Knight Riders to drop Bangladesh fast bowler Mustafizur Rahman, a move that deepened political strains between the neighbours.
The tournament will conclude with the final on March 8 in Ahmedabad or Colombo, depending on whether Pakistan go that far.
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