For the past two FIFA World Cup cycles, the starting striker spot for the U.S. men’s national team has been a seemingly unsolvable puzzle, with none of the candidates able to grab a firm hold of the spot. It wasn’t always this way.

Eric Wynalda and Brian McBride led the U.S. line during the 1990s and 2000s. Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey carried the flag through the 2014 World Cup and slightly beyond, although it’s worth noting that Dempsey spent a significant chunk of his international career in a midfield role. The same was true for Landon Donovan.

Since then, the search for a starting central striker has taken on holy grail-like qualities.

The 2022 World Cup cycle never did reveal a forward who could deliver on a consistent basis. Jesús Ferreira, Jordan Pefok, Ricardo Pepi, Josh Sargent and Gyasi Zardes were all given starts during World Cup qualifying. For a time, it looked like Pepi would emerge, but he faded toward the latter part of the cycle — mostly due to a lack of playing time at club level — and was beaten to the roster selection tape by Haji Wright. An injury to Sargent at the World Cup, combined with ineffectiveness by Ferreira and Wright, meant that the U.S. didn’t get as much out of the position in Qatar as they would have hoped.

This cycle has been even more muddled. Pepi, Sargent and Wright remain in contention, joined by Folarin Balogun and Patrick Agyemang. And while Balogun has gained a bit of daylight between himself and the other potentials thanks to an impressive performance in a recent friendly against Japan, he hasn’t secured the spot just yet.

With the October window featuring friendlies against Ecuador and Australia, here’s where things stand in the race to wear the No. 9 for Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT at next summer’s World Cup, and a statistical comparable player for the five in contention to start up top come June.

Folarin Balogun | 24 | AS Monaco

When Balogun committed to the USMNT in May of 2023 — he was also eligible to represent England and Nigeria — he was thought to be the USMNT’s long-term answer to the striker position. Initially there was a payoff: he scored in the 2023 Concacaf Nations League final against Canada, and was one of the few players to come out of the 2024 Copa América with any credit. But injuries, including a recurring shoulder ailment that required surgery in December 2024, prevented him from getting a vice-like grip on the position.

Balogun’s mobility allows him to get behind opposition defenses. The problem has been that the U.S. attack hasn’t always proved itself adept at finding him in those positions. But Balogun’s movement has the added benefit of pulling defenders out of position, the better to create space for the likes of Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah or Alejandro Zendejas.

The Japan game in September showcased the full repertoire of his skills, and he even demonstrated he can play with his back to goal and hold the ball up if asked. Even in the loss to South Korea, the U.S. attack looked a lot more dynamic once Balogun entered the match as a substitute in the 62nd minute.

The only doubts surround his durability, as well as getting consistent playing time at Monaco, where the competition for places has been fierce. He has just one goal and one assist in league play this season, covering 332 minutes.

Statistical comparable: Nicolas Jackson. Balogun has proved to be a willing runner and ball carrier with solid shot and goal creation. In the past three years, he has averaged 0.50 goals from 3.69 shots per 90 minutes. Unfortunately, like Jackson, he has also proved to be a pretty poor finisher — those 0.50 goals per 90 come from shots worth 0.70 xG per 90. — Bill Connelly

Wright is the only U.S. center forward with a World Cup goal to his name. Granted, he didn’t seem to know much about his tally in the round-of-16 defeat to the Netherlands at the 2022 World Cup, but a goal is a goal.

Given the disdain Pochettino has for player reputations, more pertinent to Wright’s cause is the blistering form he has been showing in the English Championship this year, where his eight goals are tops in the league and have propelled Coventry to the top of the table.

Wright has some versatility to his game. His 6-foot-3 frame allows him to be a force in the air, but he’s also quick enough to play on the wing, which he has done on occasion for Coventry and the USMNT. His ability to sniff out chances is impressive as well. His tally from less than 2 yards in last weekend’s 5-0 demolition of Sheffield Wednesday showed his ability to be in the right place at the right time.

What’s holding Wright back? There were times during the last World Cup where he seemed slow to react to attacking opportunities. Perhaps the moment got to him. While that was almost three years ago, it’s an image that will stick in the memory until he delivers on a bigger stage.

Statistical comparable: Randal Kolo Muani. Wright isn’t quite the passer that Kolo Muani can be, but he scores (0.56 goals per 90 minutes), and he really pushes the ball. He has averaged 6.1 progressive carries per 90 in the past three years, drawing 1.42 fouls per 90 in that span. That creates a rare profile and makes Kolo Muani the best comp. — Connelly

During last week’s conference call in which he announced the U.S. roster for the October window, Pochettino said that Agyemang offers a different profile to Balogun and Wright, one derived from his physical presence — he’s 6-foot-4 — and his aerial ability. Those traits were on display in Derby County’s 1-1 draw with Southampton last weekend, when Agyemang towered over a Saints defender to head home the Rams’ only goal of the day.

Agyemang is a raw talent, however, and he struggles at times with his touch and hold-up play. But he seems perfectly suited to score an ugly goal late in a match, if necessary, and his passing has seen him earn two assists already in 307 minutes in the EFL Championship.

Agyemang’s chances of securing a World Cup roster spot are, like so many players, down to health and the numbers game Pochettino will have to play. If Pochettino only opts to bring three forwards, and a player like Pepi is healthy, Agyemang may be one of the final cuts. But his “different profile” may be what gets him in, especially if Pochettino opts for four strikers.

Statistical comparable: Olivier Giroud. Agyemang is excellent in the air (47.5% aerial success rate), and he’s happy to draw lots of contact (2.05 fouls per 90 suffered, 0.92 in the attacking third). That makes him awfully Giroud-like, as does quality finishing — he averages 0.51 goals from shots worth 0.40 xG, and 90% of his shots have come from inside the box — although his shooting totals aren’t huge, and he’s not involved elsewhere on the pitch. — Connelly

Three years ago, Pepi was the odd man out in terms of the U.S. roster that went to Qatar. It proved a mistake, when the U.S. was left starting Ferreira against the Dutch. Now Pepi is aiming to be on the 2026 squad — that is, if his body will let him.

The 2025 calendar year has seen Pepi struggle with his fitness. He sustained a knee injury in the UEFA Champions League game against Liverpool last January that later required surgery, forcing him to miss last summer’s Gold Cup. Pepi’s recovery since then has been stop-start; he was brought along slowly by PSV, and looked to be back after scoring twice against NEC Nijmegen last month, but a recent muscle injury has him back on the shelf. It isn’t thought to be serious, but it prevented him from taking part in this camp.

While Pepi has several impressive attributes, his movement allows him to sniff out opportunities and get on the end of passes that other forwards might miss. Combine this with his link-up play and you have a forward capable of contributing plenty to the U.S. team. But time is running out for Pepi to make a bigger impression.

Statistical comparable: Lautaro Martínez. More than any other forward from this list, Pepi gets himself involved, just as Martínez does. His offensive numbers are inflated by playing in the Eredivisie, but they’re still excellent (0.74 goals and 1.36 chances created per 90 minutes), and he’s proving to be a reliable finisher (those goals came from shots worth 0.52 xG). He also shows up in defense, averaging a stellar-for-a-forward 5.53 defensive interventions per 90. — Connelly

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Rarely has the difference between a player’s club form and his international form been as stark as it is with Sargent. The O’Fallon, Missouri, native has hit double-digit goals in each of his past three full seasons with the Canaries in the Championship, and he’s well on his way this year with five goals in nine league matches. It makes Sargent’s barren spell with the USMNT — he hasn’t scored for the U.S. in his past 17 international appearances, dating back to November 2019 — all the more confounding.

Perhaps his streak is down to the fact that while Sargent does plenty of things well — be it his movement, his link-up play and yes, his finishing, too — there isn’t one aspect of his game that seems elite enough to help him be a difference-maker at a World Cup.

Pochettino seems to have noticed, too. Even with Pepi injured this window, there wasn’t room for Sargent among the forwards on the roster. He does have World Cup experience, and that counts for something, but it may not be enough.

Statistical comparable: Moise Kean. Sargent is the most statistically nondescript of the American forwards on this list, but like Kean, he’s a willing presser (4.09 defensive interventions per 90 minutes since the start of 2024-25) and above-average finisher (0.56 goals per 90 from shots worth 0.48 xG). His shot totals are always lower than you would prefer, though (2.43 shots per 90), and he doesn’t stand out as a passer. — Connelly

Balogun, Pepi, Wright and Agyemang look to be in position to make the World Cup squad, in that order. Four forwards might seem like one too many, but these four all have different profiles that can help the USMNT at various times. Flexibility is vital in a tournament like the World Cup.

In terms of who starts, Balogun has the inside track at the moment, but that situation can change quickly. At this stage, it looks like the only way Sargent makes it back to the World Cup is if others get injured or suffer a significant drop in form.