Iran has been grappling with its major demonstrations since 2022, driven by economic grievances, with its currency losing half its value against the US dollar last year and inflation topping 40% in December.

The protests pose the biggest internal challenge in at least three years to Iran’s rulers, who look more vulnerable than during past bouts of unrest after last year’s war with Israel and the United States.

Adding to the distress, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened military action over Tehran’s what he says “severe crackdown” on the protests. Furthermore, Trump announced that any country doing business with Iran will face a new tariff of 25% on its exports to the US.

However, the country’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi dismissed the threats, saying Iran is “ready for war but also for dialogue”.

In a sign of the severity of the crisis, the Iranian authorities have imposed an internet blackout lasting more than three-and-a-half days. Moreover, they also sought to regain control of the streets with mass nationwide rallies.

Muhammad Hussain Baqeri, an international affairs expert, appeared on Geo News programme ‘Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Kay Sath’ on Monday, and provided an inside view of the ongoing situation in Iran.

‘Regime change operation’

When asked about the ground situation, Baqeri said that Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah of Iran — who resides in Washington — announced a protest call on January 8 and 9. “However, the main objective of protests wasn’t about inflation; they were aiming for regime change in Iran,” he added.

Referring to the protests on Thursday and Friday, he estimated that the crowds were in the thousands — more than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000. “During the 8pm to 10pm window, many people joined, and it was a very peaceful protest,” he said.

“However, after 10pm, I saw individuals from terrorist organisations emerging from within the crowds. They had military-grade weapons and started shooting. They then started setting fire to banks, mosques, and police stations,” he said.

Baqeri acknowledged the anger among Iranian people over the rising cost of living, saying that on January 3, the dollar rate increased by 35% in a single day, reaching 140,000 Iranian Rial.

“The government is acknowledging their right to protest, but there is a big difference between a protest and a riot,” he added.

However, the expert claimed that common Iranians do not own guns. “If someone has a gun in Iran, it’s either because they are a member of a high-level security organisation or they belong to a terrorist group.”

Speaking about the destruction caused during the protests, Baqeri said that at least 150 ambulances, 50 mosques and seven fire engines were torched across Iran. Moreover, he added, at least 40 banks, police stations and Red Crescent centres were attacked.

“The Iranian people do not burn mosques. No matter how angry they are with the regime or the government, they are Muslims and do not burn mosques.” 

‘Mossad agent arrested’

Baqeri further said that a terrorist linked to the Israeli spy agency, Mossad, was captured in Iran, who during an interview alleged that they were trained to “shoot for the head”, whether the targets were security forces or civilians.

“They wanted ‘dead bodies’ to show Trump and Netanyahu so they could claim the government is massacring its people and demand intervention. This happened on Thursday and Friday,” he added.

“But on Monday, the government called for a counter-rally. I went to Inqalab Square and Azadi Square; people were there with Qurans in their hands. There were likely more than 300,000 to 400,000 people. It’s hard to count, but the footage shows a sea of people,” Baqeri added.

Trump threats

Responding to a question about Trump’s threat of strikes and a “Venezuela-style” operation, the expert said that the United States has two options if it wants to attack Iran.

“One is air strikes, which they already attempted last June. They used state-of-the-art B-52 and B-5 bombers, and Israeli F-16s hit various locations,” he said, questioning whether these strikes resulted in regime change.

He expressed doubt over another airstrike attempt in Iran, saying that if the US and Israel want regime change, they need “boots on the ground”.

However, he said, Iran is 1.7 million square kilometres of land with a population of 90 million. Out of that, about 15 to 20 million are part of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

“If they couldn’t wipe out Hamas in Gaza — which is a much smaller organisation — how will they manage boots on the ground in Iran? I don’t think President Trump would want to see a graveyard for American soldiers in Iran.”

Iran’s response to threats

Furthermore, Baqeri said Iran has warned that it will respond forcefully — including through possible preemptive action — if it becomes certain that a military attack is imminent, with Israel and US interests across the region likely to be targeted.

He said Tehran has made its position clear that any assault would trigger a wider regional conflict, adding that Iran would strike Israel with ballistic missiles and target American military and strategic interests, including US naval assets, which he claimed were within missile range.

Baqeri warned that any decision by Trump to launch an attack would have serious consequences and could plunge the entire region into a large-scale war. However, he said he did not believe Washington would move towards a direct military strike at this stage, though he alleged that attempts to create internal unrest in Iran through covert operations could continue.

According to the expert, the regime change in Iran remained a distant possibility.

‘Major surgery’

Addressing Iran’s internal situation, Baqeri said public frustration was growing due to soaring inflation, a weakening currency and rising unemployment. He noted that for the first time in two decades, Iran’s parliament had rejected the government’s budget, reflecting the severity of economic pressures.

The assembly, he said, had asked the Iranian president to revise the budget and align salary increases with inflation, adding that a new budget is expected within weeks, likely including a 40% to 45%.

He further said the Iranian government is preparing what he described as “major surgery” on the economy, particularly by reforming the currency system.

Baqeri pointed out that multiple exchange rates for the dollar — used separately for food, imports and exports — had fuelled widespread corruption. He said the government is now attempting to narrow the gap between the subsidised and open market exchange rates, which could help reduce corruption and provide some economic relief.

However, he cautioned that Iran was currently facing serious economic challenges and that managing the situation would not be easy.

— With additional input from AFP and Reuters

DUBAI: The United Arab Emirates will launch the first phase of its national passenger railway network in 2026, connecting 11 cities and regions across the country.

The network will link major urban centres such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah and Fujairah, while also extending rail services to more remote areas, particularly in Abu Dhabi’s western Al Dhafra region and parts of Sharjah.

Several new stations will be located in Al Dhafra, Abu Dhabi emirate, a vast desert and coastal region west of the capital.

These include Al Sila’, near the Saudi border around 450 km from Dubai; Al Dhannah and Al Mirfa, coastal towns about 370-400 km west of Dubai; Madinat Zayed, the administrative centre of Al Dhafra around 235 km from Dubai; and Mezaira’a, near the Liwa Oasis on the edge of the Empty Quarter desert, roughly 340 km from Dubai.

In the Sharjah emirate, stations will be developed in Al Faya, an inland desert area around 150–180 km from Dubai and Al Dhaid, a farming and oasis town about 140 km east of Dubai.

Etihad Rail said the trains will offer a modern travel experience with Wi-Fi, power outlets and seating for up to 400 passengers per train, providing a faster and congestion-free alternative to road travel.

Officials said the project will support economic growth, boost domestic tourism and strengthen connectivity between the UAE’s emirates.

The passenger network builds on the UAE’s freight rail system, which has been operational since 2023.

President Donald Trump said on Monday any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on trade with the US, as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran, which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

“Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

 Tariffs are paid by US importers of goods from those countries. Iran has been heavily sanctioned by Washington for years.

“This order is final and conclusive,” Trump said without providing any further detail.

There was no official documentation from the White House about the policy on its website, nor information about the legal authority Trump would use to impose the tariffs, or whether they would be aimed at all of Iran’s trading partners.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Iran, which had a 12-day war with US ally Israel last year and whose nuclear facilities the US military bombed in June, is seeing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years.

Trump has said the US may meet Iranian officials and that he was in contact with Iran’s opposition, while piling pressure on its leaders, including threatening military action.

Tehran said on Monday it was keeping communication channels with Washington open as Trump considered how to respond to the situation in Iran, which has posed one of the gravest tests of clerical rule in the country since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Demonstrations evolved from complaints about dire economic hardships to defiant calls for the fall of the deeply entrenched clerical establishment.

US-based rights group HRANA said it had verified the deaths of 599 people – 510 protesters and 89 security personnel – since the protests began on December 28.

While airstrikes were one of many alternatives open to Trump, “diplomacy is always the first option for the president,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday.

During the course of his second term in office, Trump has often threatened and imposed tariffs on other countries over their ties with US adversaries and over trade policies that he has described as unfair to Washington.

Trump’s trade policy is under legal pressure as the US Supreme Court is considering striking down a broad swathe of Trump’s existing tariffs.

Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producers’ group, exported products to 147 trading partners in 2022, according to the World Bank’s most recent data.