Connect with us

Business

UK economy flatlined in July after sharp contraction in manufacturing

Published

on

UK economy flatlined in July after sharp contraction in manufacturing


The UK economy flatlined in July as the biggest contraction for a year in the manufacturing sector offset a bumper month on the high street.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there was zero growth in gross domestic product (GDP) month on month in July, against 0.4 per cent growth in June.

It came after the manufacturing sector saw activity pull back by 1.3 per cent – the biggest contraction since July 2024. This held back growth in the wider economy, with the services sector up 0.1 per cent thanks to an expansion of 0.6 per cent in retail and construction growing by 0.2 per cent.

Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “Growth in the economy as a whole continued to slow over the last three months. While services growth held up, production fell back further.

“Within services, health, computer programming and office support services all performed well, while the falls in production were driven by broad-based weakness across manufacturing industries.

“In the latest month, GDP showed no growth, with increases in services and construction offset by falls in production. Falls in production were driven by broad-based weakness across manufacturing industries.”

The manufacturing sector has seen its biggest contraction since July 2024 (PA)

Services output grew 0.4 per cent and construction by 0.6 per cent across the three months to July, contributing to an overall rise of 0.2 per cent for the economy across the summer period.

However, that means a third consecutive slowdown period as, in one expert’s words, the economy “grinds to a halt”. Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, pointed out that even the areas that showed growth in the last three months are slowing – a direct consequence of the government raising costs for employers.

“After a positive first half of the year, UK economic growth is slowly grinding to a halt once again,” said Ms James.

“GDP failed to grow month-on-month in July, and slowed to just 0.2 per cent on a three-monthly basis. This increase was driven primarily by the services and construction sectors, but production output fell. However, growth is slowing in these sectors and is likely the result of actions taken by the Labour government now being realised, with the increase in employer national insurance contributions having a significant impact on business confidence.

“With the summer now over and the economy supposedly getting out of its slumber, we now face continuing uncertainty in the lead-up to the budget in November given the precarious position the chancellor finds the public finances in. It is estimated that the fiscal hole that needs to be plugged is anywhere between £20bn and £50bn. While that is a wide range, it means one thing for a government that has shown it will struggle to cut spending – more tax rises.”

Rachel Reeves is set to deliver her Budget on 26 November

Rachel Reeves is set to deliver her Budget on 26 November (PA)

On the latest figures, a Treasury spokesperson said: “We know there’s more to do to boost growth, because while our economy isn’t broken, it does feel stuck.

“That’s the result of years of underinvestment, which we’re determined to reverse through our Plan for Change. We’re making progress: growth this year was the fastest in the G7; since the election, interest rates have been cut five times, and real wages have risen faster than they did under the last government.

“There’s more to do to build an economy that works for, and rewards, working people. That’s why we are cutting unnecessary red tape, transforming the planning system to get Britain building, and investing billions of pounds into affordable homes, Sizewell C, and local transport across the country.”

In response, Sir Mel Stride MP, shadow chancellor of the Exchequer, said: “Any economic growth is welcome – but this government is distracted from the problems the country is facing.

“While the government lurches from one scandal to another, borrowing costs recently hit a 27-year high – a damning vote of no confidence in Labour that makes painful tax rises all but certain.

“It is little wonder that Starmer has stripped Reeves of control over the Budget. But sidelining her is not enough – he must also reject her failed economic approach that has left Britain poorer.”

Rachel Reeves is scheduled to deliver the Budget on 26 November.

Economists have warned that the government cannot ‘tax its way to growth’

Economists have warned that the government cannot ‘tax its way to growth’ (House of Commons)

Ben Jones, lead economist at the CBI, added: “The sunshine may have lifted consumers in July, but the broader economy stayed stuck in the shade. Growth was uneven across sectors, highlighting that underlying demand remains more fragile. Speculation about new business taxes is casting a long shadow. Amid rising cost pressures, firms are already holding back on hiring and investment and are wary of weeks’ more Budget uncertainty.

“The government cannot tax its way to growth and continue to raid corporate coffers. With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, the chancellor must deliver a decisive, pro-growth package by committing to serious tax reform. It’s the structure of our system – from punitive business rates to the restrictive VAT threshold and stamp duty – that holds back economic progress, not just the rates themselves.”

Additional reporting by PA



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

Reeves could face £20bn Budget hole as UK productivity downgraded

Published

on

Reeves could face £20bn Budget hole as UK productivity downgraded


The government is facing a bigger-than-expected hole in the public finances as it prepares for next month’s Budget.

A downgrade to the UK’s productivity performance from the government’s official forecaster could lead to the chancellor facing a £20bn gap in meeting her tax and spending rules, the BBC understands.

Rachel Reeves has confirmed both tax rises and spending cuts are options in next month’s Budget.

The Treasury declined to comment on “speculation” ahead of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) final forecast, which will be published on 26 November alongside the Budget.

It comes as the chancellor told an audience in Saudi Arabia that Brexit is partly to blame for high inflation in the UK.

Persistent higher prices have been a dampener on UK economic growth, because the Bank of England has kept interest rates higher to control inflation, and that has made Reeves’ job harder to balance tax and spending within her fiscal rules.

“Inflation is too high in countries around the world including in the UK, and one of the reasons for that is that there’s too much cost associated with trade with our nearest neighbours and trading partners,” Reeves said as she argued that closer economic ties with the EU could ease the inflation burden and boost economic growth.

“Businesses, especially small businesses, who face increasing red tape since we left the European Union, for workers, who are now locked out of the jobs market in Europe, there are obviously huge benefits from rebuilding some of those relations.”

The OBR will deliver its final draft forecast for Reeves’s Budget, including productivity – a measure of the output of the economy per hour worked – to the Treasury on Friday.

The forecaster had previously assumed a partial bounce back in productivity growth, but this has never materialised.

This productivity assumption is essential to long-term growth prospects and so, under the current system, even a small change can alter how much money a Budget needs to raise by several billion pounds.

The OBR is understood to have downgraded forecast for productivity by 0.3 percentage points – a figure first reported by the Financial Times – bringing its assumption closer to that of the Bank of England.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank has calculated that for every 0.1 percentage point downgrade in the productivity forecast, government borrowing would increase by £7bn in 2029-30 – meaning a 0.3 point cut could add £21bn to the Budget hole.

The changes open up an initial gap of some £20bn, rather than the £10-£14bn widely anticipated.

Such a hole could be plugged by hiking taxes, reducing public spending or increasing government borrowing.

Reeves has set out two main Budget rules, which she has described as “non-negotiable”. These are:

  • Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
  • To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament

Reeves admitted on Monday to business leaders in Saudi Arabia that the OBR was “likely to downgrade productivity” which has been “very poor since the financial crisis and Brexit”.

The OBR is expected to explain the decision in detail, but some ministers have privately pointed out that if it had done this earlier, different choices could have been made at this summer’s Spending Review.

There are many other moving parts in the Budget which may bring better news for the chancellor, such as the decline in the interest rates paid on government debt.

However, with other pressures such as the U-turns on welfare spending and a desire to rebuild a bigger buffer in the public finances, speculation is pointing towards significant tax rises, including some possible breaches of manifesto commitments such as changes to income tax.

The Treasury will inform the OBR of its first draft Budget measures next week.

On Tuesday, the government announced it had agreed a series of trade and investment deals with Saudi Arabia, following Reeves’s visit to the Gulf.

This included up to £5bn in support from UK Export Finance for projects in Saudi Arabia which the government said would “unlock” contracts for British firms.

It also announced deals including a £37m investment from Saudi cybersecurity firm Cipher to set up its European office in London, and a £75m investment from Saudi investors and bankers into British digital bank Vemi.

The chancellor also met ministerial counterparts from Qatar and Kuwait for talks over a wider potential trade deal between the UK and the Gulf Cooperation Council.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Transfer test: Children from Belfast low income families to be given free tuition

Published

on

Transfer test: Children from Belfast low income families to be given free tuition


Sebastian GriffithsBBC News NI

PA Media Three men are holding a red ribbon outside a building. The man in the middle is cutting the ribbon with scissors.PA Media

Boxer Carl Frampton (centre) with Foodstock director Ciaran Toman (left) and Foodstock founder Paul Doherty at the opening of a new education and empowerment centre

Some children, from low-income families in Belfast, are to get free transfer test tuition from a new centre aiming to “level the playing field”.

The new Foodstock Education and Empowerment Centre, aims to improve outcomes for children from disadvantaged backgrounds across the city.

It will provide free, high quality tuition and wellbeing support for primary pupils in years six and seven.

One of those backing the centre is former world champion boxer Carl Frampton who spoke at the centre’s launch.

PA Media A man dressed in a short sleeved black top stands at a wooden podium PA Media

Carl Frampton says it’s all about giving kids opportunities

“My own child is going through the test and I know how stressful it can be,” Frampton told BBC News NI.

“There are kids that have ability but just need a bit of help. It’s stressful for me and I am lucky to be comfortable financially but there are others struggling so much – this is just about giving kids who are able opportunities.”

Frampton also praised the cross-community aspect of the centre and the importance of the facility being situated in the city centre.

“You know what this place is like – it can be very tribal, and people maybe don’t want to go here or there or whatever,” he said.

“But to have a central location willing to help anybody that needs their help, I just think it’s an amazing thing.”

‘Removing barriers when it comes to education’

Paul Doherty is smiling. He's wearing a navy jacket and a blue top. He has brown hair and is standing with a wall behind him.

Paul Doherty, who is also deputy lord mayor of Belfast, founded the charity

The new centre will provide weekly small group tuition in English, Maths and reasoning to prepare children for the Schools’ Entrance Assessment Group (SEAG) tests.

More than 60 post-primary schools across Northern Ireland use the test to decide which pupils to admit into year eight.

A paper by Queen’s University in 2022 claimed that academic selection perpetuated division in wider society in Northern Ireland and “disadvantages the already most disadvantaged”.

Foodstock founder Paul Doherty said it will “tackle the longer impacts of poverty through education” and will “empower people to better their lives”.

“A lot of people say because of financial difficulties they cannot afford additional tuition and they are pulling their child out of the transfer test,” he said.

“We talk about removing barriers when it comes to hunger through breakfast programmes – this is removing other barriers when it comes to education”.

Ciaran Toman is looking into the camera. He's wearing a white shirt and has brown hair. He's standing with a wall behind him.

Ciaran Toman believes the new centre will improve the capability of Foodstock to help people

One to one support will also be provided for children facing particular challenges.

Eligibility will be for pupils that need it most such as those from areas of high deprivation or low income families.

Foodstock said private tuition doubled the likelihood of attending a grammar school, but disadvantaged children were less able to finance it.

Its tuition programme will help “level the playing field for children across Belfast”, it said.

Foodstock’s director of strategy Ciaran Toman said he believed the centre will “reach people right across the city regardless of community” with the overall aim to “benefit as many children as possible”.

He added that it could help give “equal opportunity to those who are less fortunate and that the centre can plug that gap for disadvantaged children”.

Paul Doherty, Carl Frampton and Ciaran Toman are seen speaking in front of a crowd at the opening of the new centre

Foodstock’s vision is that ability and not background determines opportunity



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

‘We’re trying to shame them’: Upstart activist investors target America’s underperforming banks

Published

on

‘We’re trying to shame them’: Upstart activist investors target America’s underperforming banks


Misha Zaitzeff and Vik Ghei, founders of HoldCo Asset Management, at their Fort Lauderdale, Florida, offices.

Courtesy: HoldCo

American banks have found an unlikely pair of adversaries in Vik Ghei and Misha Zaitzeff.

Since July, the nine-person hedge fund they run from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, called HoldCo, has challenged lenders with more than $200 billion in combined assets, demanding that they take swift action or face public campaigns to overthrow their boards and fire their CEOs.

The fund notched a victory this month after Comerica, under pressure from HoldCo, agreed to sell itself to rival Fifth Third for $10.9 billion in the biggest bank merger of the year. HoldCo has since announced activist campaigns against two smaller regional lenders, Boston-based Eastern Bank and Billings, Montana-based First Interstate.

A fourth bank is now in their sights, CNBC has learned exclusively: HoldCo plans to launch a proxy battle against Columbia Bank, a lender with $70 billion in assets and 350 branches across Western states, unless it can strike a deal with management.

HoldCo, with $2.6 billion in assets, is bringing back activism to an industry that has largely been insulated from it since the 2008 financial crisis. The demise of bank-specific hedge funds in the post-crisis years and regulatory resistance to mergers meant that underperforming CEOs faced little discipline from the markets until now, according to Ghei and Zaitzeff.

Regional banks have struggled to regain their footing after the 2023 crisis that consumed Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic, leaving them exposed to activists seeking undervalued targets. At the same time, mergers are now viewed as more likely to be approved by regulators in the Trump administration, giving activists like HoldCo a clear exit strategy.

Coming from a hedge fund that few outside of banking circles had heard of, HoldCo’s moves have garnered admiration in some corners of Wall Street, while making them a pariah in others.

Ghei and Zaitzeff say HoldCo has been banned from attending a banking conference held next month outside Miami by Piper Sandler, an investment bank known for advising regionals on mergers. A spokesman for Piper Sandler didn’t immediately have a comment.

The millennial upstarts now find themselves key players in a larger story of industry consolidation. While retail banking is dominated by three giants, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, the country has more than 4,400 banks, and a long-expected merger wave began this year.

Bad incentives

The HoldCo thesis on regional banks is simple: Many are undervalued because their CEOs have put their own interests above that of shareholders, Ghei and Zaitzeff told CNBC in interviews over the past month.

That’s because the CEOs earn millions of dollars more in annual compensation if they grow by acquiring other banks, even if the deals prove disastrous for shareholders, according to the investors. Bank boards mostly operate as rubber stamps for such deals, they say, because directors are often hand-picked by the CEOs themselves.

“We’re trying to shame them into doing the right thing,” Ghei, 43, told CNBC. “At some of the banks we own, the CEOs have doubled compensation while their stocks have dramatically underperformed, or even fallen.”

On top of that, some of the investment bankers and research analysts that cater to small and medium banks are complicit, because their firms earn fees from mergers, and shareholders are usually silent because they risk losing management access if they challenge bank leaders, said the HoldCo founders.

“We feel that the way to rectify this is to publicly shame banks and aggressively pursue things like proxy battles,” Ghei said. “CEOs should be fired, and the boards should be fired, because they rolled the dice and lost; there should be consequences.”

Regional banks face pressure to bulk up through mergers to compete with super regionals and megabanks, which have far larger budgets for technology and compliance, according to industry consultants who requested anonymity to speak candidly. Poorly-managed firms are more the exception than the rule, they said.

As a group, regional banks have trailed both larger peers and broader stock indexes in recent years, partly because of the hangover from the 2023 tumult. The S&P Regional Banking ETF is still 14% below its 2021 peak, and shares of regional lenders tumbled again this month on concern over a trio of defaults tied to alleged corporate fraud.

In April, after bank stocks plunged in the selloff sparked by President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff policies, HoldCo began loading up on shares of beaten-up regionals, including Columbia, Citizens Financial and KeyCorp.

Those bets kickstarted their recent round of activism and raised their profile: HoldCo “is quickly becoming a household name in both the regional banking space and the world of activism,” analyst Don Bilson wrote in an October 21 research note.

The firm’s rise has rattled executives across the U.S. regional banking landscape; several banks have quietly started reviewing their capital plans in anticipation of possible activist scrutiny, according to the industry advisors who spoke to CNBC.

HoldCo said it now owns more than $1 billion in regional bank shares.

‘Best job in the world’

Over steak dinners, Zoom meetings and phone calls, Ghei and Zaitzeff began private discussions with a succession of bank CEOs in recent months, hoping to persuade them to commit to their shareholder-friendly actions.

When that approach has failed, they’ve gone public, releasing their presentations online and in the pages of the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News.

It’s a playbook more familiar to other sectors including technology, media and health care, where hedge funds far larger than HoldCo have attempted to sway management with public campaigns.

“I wish I could say there’s more nuance involved,” Ghei said. “But you actually need to put the CEO’s job at risk and make this very legitimate case that you can defeat them.”

HoldCo’s campaign against Columbia Bank is one of the firm’s largest bets yet. Its position is worth roughly $150 million and makes up about 1.9% of the company’s voting shares.

In a 71-page presentation, the activist said that while CEO Clint Stein quadrupled Columbia Bank’s assets through two acquisitions since taking over in 2020, the bank’s shares have fallen 36% during his tenure.

At the same time, Stein’s most recent pay package rose 80% to $6.3 million from his 2021 compensation, the year he began announcing the takeovers.

Columbia Bank declined to comment for this article.

“Being a bank CEO is the best job in the world,” Ghei said. “You have incredible job security because shareholders never show their face and the board feels like they work for you. Everyone’s happy to meet you, and you have a bunch of investment bankers who want to make fees off of you.”

Stein and his chief operating officer flew to Fort Lauderdale in August to meet the activists at a steakhouse two blocks from HoldCo’s offices on bustling Las Olas Boulevard, according to Ghei and Zaitzeff.

Their meal was amicable enough, but the tone changed afterward when it became clear that HoldCo would pursue a proxy battle unless a deal was struck, meaning they would aim to replace directors with their own picks, with the ultimate goal of replacing Stein, according to the HoldCo duo.

In late September, the HoldCo founders delivered their presentation to board members, slide by slide, over a Zoom call.

HoldCo wants Columbia to swear off from doing more acquisitions, instead using excess cash to buy back their own cheap stock for five years, after which they should explore selling themselves to a larger bank.

“They are honestly accomplished people, but not in banking,” Ghei said of the Columbia directors. “I don’t think they understood how bad the transactions they did were.”

‘Don’t take it personally’

The HoldCo partners said they developed their appetite for confrontation in the rough-and-tumble world of distressed debt.

Ghei, a former Goldman Sachs analyst covering financial firms, had figured out a way to make money picking through the remains of banks that had collapsed in the 2008 financial crisis.

Then an analyst at Owl Creek, a hedge fund that specialized in the debt of failed companies, Ghei realized that bonds from the parent company of Washington Mutual were trading at deep discounts because everybody assumed that they wouldn’t be repaid.

But they were ultimately repaid at full price, plus interest, making hundreds of millions of dollars for Owl Creek, according to an American Banker profile of Ghei from 2013.

Ghei would repeat that trade at another Manhattan hedge fund, Tricadia, where he met Zaitzeff, a Brown University computer science graduate who ran models of new financial instruments called subprime collateralized debt obligations.

Tricadia made millions by both creating subprime CDOs and then separately betting that other CDOs would fail, similar to trades from Goldman Sachs and others chronicled in the Michael Lewis book “The Big Short.”

The men immediately hit it off, and in 2011 started their own firm out of “crummy offices” in New York’s Financial District, says Ghei. They called it HoldCo because of their early trades acquiring the debt of 70 holding companies whose banking subsidiaries had failed in the crisis.

Ghei and Zaitzeff say they would spend most of their waking hours over the next 14 years together, angering their wives with their singular focus on batting around ideas for investments until they came to consensus.

“We’re friends, first and foremost,” Zaitzeff, 42, said. “We spend a lot of time debating investments, but we don’t take it personally.”

They believed the bonds of dead banks had value because of assets like tax refunds on corporate ledgers. But the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which took over the failed banks’ subsidiaries, believed it was entitled to the assets, not HoldCo.

So HoldCo battled the FDIC in bankruptcy courts around the country, winning enough of the time on the strength of their arguments to develop a reputation as scrappy fighters.

By 2013, the pair had raised their first institutional funds from an endowment; word of mouth then spread, and they eventually garnered investment from about 20 universities, hospitals and family offices in a series of ever-larger funds.

One battle after another

Their go-anywhere investment style led them to buy the distressed debt of a New Orleans-based lender named First NBC Bank in 2016; the bank had been established a decade earlier to help the city rebuild after Hurricane Katrina.

After realizing that First NBC would soon be undercapitalized, HoldCo shorted the lender and published letters revealing their concerns. The bank’s auditor resigned and the institution was seized by the FDIC. In 2023, the former First NBC CEO Ashton Ryan was sentenced to 14 years in prison for bank fraud.

It was experiences like that led Ghei and Zaitzeff to their dim view of bank management. By proving to themselves that they could identify situations where the market wasn’t functioning like it should, the HoldCo partners had the conviction to take on regional banks this year.

First NBC Bank Chief Executive Ashton Ryan, center.

Source: Nasdaq

Banks didn’t understand the scope of HoldCo’s ambitions at first, the partners said.

“People were surprisingly nice to us after Comerica,” Zaitzeff said. “When we went after Comerica, they viewed it as us going after a bigger bank. But a lot of regional banks view Eastern and First Interstate as much more like them.”

Bank CEOs may believe that if they don’t engage with HoldCo, they can avoid activist campaigns, Zaitzeff said. The activists believe that’s why they were blacklisted from a recent banking conference.

But the hedge fund has purchased almost 5% of the shares of Bank United, a Miami Lakes, Florida-based lender with $35.5 billion in assets, without speaking to management, according to the pair.

HoldCo plans to wage a proxy battle unless they can come to an agreement with management over increasing shareholder returns. Bank United didn’t immediately return messages seeking comment.

On Tuesday, after publication of this story, Bank United shares rose 4.9% and Columbia Bank rose 2.9% in midday trading, the two biggest risers of the more than 140 banks in the S&P Regional Banking ETF.

The investors, convinced of the righteousness of their position, say they also plan to publish regular dispatches about banks destroying shareholder value, even when they don’t hold a stake in the firm.

“The problem is that for so many years there’s been no accountability, and the world has gone insane,” Ghei said. “We’re trying to call out bad decisions and incent them into doing the right thing.”

— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending