Business
UK economy flatlined in July after sharp contraction in manufacturing
The UK economy flatlined in July as the biggest contraction for a year in the manufacturing sector offset a bumper month on the high street.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there was zero growth in gross domestic product (GDP) month on month in July, against 0.4 per cent growth in June.
It came after the manufacturing sector saw activity pull back by 1.3 per cent – the biggest contraction since July 2024. This held back growth in the wider economy, with the services sector up 0.1 per cent thanks to an expansion of 0.6 per cent in retail and construction growing by 0.2 per cent.
Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “Growth in the economy as a whole continued to slow over the last three months. While services growth held up, production fell back further.
“Within services, health, computer programming and office support services all performed well, while the falls in production were driven by broad-based weakness across manufacturing industries.
“In the latest month, GDP showed no growth, with increases in services and construction offset by falls in production. Falls in production were driven by broad-based weakness across manufacturing industries.”
Services output grew 0.4 per cent and construction by 0.6 per cent across the three months to July, contributing to an overall rise of 0.2 per cent for the economy across the summer period.
However, that means a third consecutive slowdown period as, in one expert’s words, the economy “grinds to a halt”. Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, pointed out that even the areas that showed growth in the last three months are slowing – a direct consequence of the government raising costs for employers.
“After a positive first half of the year, UK economic growth is slowly grinding to a halt once again,” said Ms James.
“GDP failed to grow month-on-month in July, and slowed to just 0.2 per cent on a three-monthly basis. This increase was driven primarily by the services and construction sectors, but production output fell. However, growth is slowing in these sectors and is likely the result of actions taken by the Labour government now being realised, with the increase in employer national insurance contributions having a significant impact on business confidence.
“With the summer now over and the economy supposedly getting out of its slumber, we now face continuing uncertainty in the lead-up to the budget in November given the precarious position the chancellor finds the public finances in. It is estimated that the fiscal hole that needs to be plugged is anywhere between £20bn and £50bn. While that is a wide range, it means one thing for a government that has shown it will struggle to cut spending – more tax rises.”
On the latest figures, a Treasury spokesperson said: “We know there’s more to do to boost growth, because while our economy isn’t broken, it does feel stuck.
“That’s the result of years of underinvestment, which we’re determined to reverse through our Plan for Change. We’re making progress: growth this year was the fastest in the G7; since the election, interest rates have been cut five times, and real wages have risen faster than they did under the last government.
“There’s more to do to build an economy that works for, and rewards, working people. That’s why we are cutting unnecessary red tape, transforming the planning system to get Britain building, and investing billions of pounds into affordable homes, Sizewell C, and local transport across the country.”
In response, Sir Mel Stride MP, shadow chancellor of the Exchequer, said: “Any economic growth is welcome – but this government is distracted from the problems the country is facing.
“While the government lurches from one scandal to another, borrowing costs recently hit a 27-year high – a damning vote of no confidence in Labour that makes painful tax rises all but certain.
“It is little wonder that Starmer has stripped Reeves of control over the Budget. But sidelining her is not enough – he must also reject her failed economic approach that has left Britain poorer.”
Rachel Reeves is scheduled to deliver the Budget on 26 November.
Ben Jones, lead economist at the CBI, added: “The sunshine may have lifted consumers in July, but the broader economy stayed stuck in the shade. Growth was uneven across sectors, highlighting that underlying demand remains more fragile. Speculation about new business taxes is casting a long shadow. Amid rising cost pressures, firms are already holding back on hiring and investment and are wary of weeks’ more Budget uncertainty.
“The government cannot tax its way to growth and continue to raid corporate coffers. With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, the chancellor must deliver a decisive, pro-growth package by committing to serious tax reform. It’s the structure of our system – from punitive business rates to the restrictive VAT threshold and stamp duty – that holds back economic progress, not just the rates themselves.”
Additional reporting by PA
The FTSE 100 closed higher on Monday, recouping most of Friday’s hefty falls amid a calmer bond market and as Iran responded to the latest US peace proposal.
The FTSE 100 closed up 128.38 points, 1.3%, at 10,323.75. The FTSE 250 ended up 15.56 points, 0.1%, at 22,611.70, but the AIM All-Share fell 8.72 points, 1.1%, at 800.17.
Iran said it had responded to a new US proposal aimed at ending the war, adding that diplomatic exchanges continue despite Iranian media reports describing Washington’s demands as excessive, AFP reported.
Washington and Tehran have been swapping proposals in an effort to end the conflict, which the US and Israel launched on February 28, but they have held only a single round of talks despite a fragile ceasefire.
“As we announced yesterday, our concerns were conveyed to the American side,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told a news briefing, adding that exchanges were “continuing through the Pakistani mediator”.
Mr Baqaei defended Iran’s demands, including the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad and the lifting of long-standing sanctions.
“The points raised are Iranian demands that have been firmly defended by the Iranian negotiating team in every round of negotiations,” he said.
But with no signs of clear progress, the oil price remained inflated and volatile.
Brent crude for July delivery was trading at 110.80 dollars a barrel on Monday, up compared to 108.83 at the time of the equities close in London on Friday.
After a frantic Friday, the bond markets calmed, while sterling also rebounded as investors weighed the latest political developments.
The yield on UK 10-year gilts traded at 5.14% compared to 5.17% at the same time on Friday.
The pound traded at 1.3397 dollars on Monday afternoon, up from 1.3319 on Friday. Against the euro, sterling firmed to 1.1506 euros from 1.1462 on Friday.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer insisted he would not set out a timetable to leave No 10 as potential leadership challenger Andy Burnham vowed to “change Labour” if he is successful in his effort to return to Parliament.
The Prime Minister said he still wants to lead Labour into the next general election amid calls from within the party to set out a timetable for his exit.
Greater Manchester Mayor Mr Burnham hopes to be Labour’s candidate in the Makerfield by-election, which could provide him with a route back to the Commons to challenge for the party leadership and the keys to Downing Street.
Speaking to broadcasters in London, Sir Keir said he was not going to set out a timetable to stand down if Mr Burnham returns to Westminster.
He added: “I do want to fight the next election. Obviously, I recognise that after the local election results, the elections in Wales and Scotland as well, that the first task is obviously turning things around and making sure that my focus is in the right place.”
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said growth in the UK economy will be stronger this year than previously thought.
The IMF updated its growth projections a month after warning of a sharp slowdown caused by the global energy shock from the US-Iran war.
The influential financial body said it was now predicting UK gross domestic product to rise by 1% in 2026, higher than the 0.8% growth it was forecasting last month.
Responding to the latest report, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “The IMF upgrading its growth forecasts and backing our fiscal strategy is yet more proof that this Government has the right economic plan.”
In Europe, equity markets on Monday, the Cac 40 in Paris ended up 0.4%, and the Dax 40 in Frankfurt advanced 1.5%.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.7% lower.
On the FTSE 100, Whitbread closed up 2.3% after Corvex Management urged the Premier Inn owner to put itself up for sale, slamming its recently announced new five-year strategic plan.
In a damning letter to Whitbread management, the New York-based activist hedge fund called the status quo “untenable” and said that the need to pursue “meaningful strategic and structural reform had become unignorable”.
As a result, Corvex, which holds a stake of around 7% in Whitbread, said the only “credible” path to unlocking value at Whitbread is a sale of the company.
Anglo America fell 1.4% as it struck a deal to sell its portfolio of steelmaking coal mines in Australia to Dhilmar for up to 3.88 billion dollars in cash.
The London-based mining house said Dhilmar will pay the FTSE 100-listing 2.3 billion dollars upfront, and the deal has a price-linked earnout of up to 1.58 billion dollars.
Anglo American chief executive officer Duncan Wanblad said: “This agreement represents another major step in the simplification of our portfolio ahead of completing our merger with Teck. Through this transaction, we will complete our exit from steelmaking coal.”
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said: “This not only strengthens the balance sheet, ahead of its planned merger with Canada’s Teck Resources, but also keeps it exposed to future strength in coal prices.”
Capita shares rose 8.9% as the London-based outsourcing and business services company said adjusted revenue rose 2.9% on-year in the first four months of 2026, which it said was in line with expectations.
Looking ahead, Capita said it continues to expect a low to mid-single digit revenue climb in Capita Public Service and expects mid-teen revenue growth in its Pension Solutions business.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Centrica, up 7.70p at 196.95p, National Grid, up 43.50p at 1,231.50p, Pearson, up 37.00p at 1,136.50p, Relx, up 81.00p at 2,504.00p, and SSE, up 74.00p at 2,345.00p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were 3i Group, down 128.00p at 2,082.00p, Airtel Africa, down 15.60p at 312.80p, Mondi, down 16.40p at 734.60p, Polar Capital Technology Trust, down 12.50p at 659.00p and Diploma, down 95.00p at 6,625.00p.
Tuesday’s global economic calendar has UK consumer and wholesale inflation figures, eurozone inflation data and the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Tuesday’s local corporate calendar has full-year results from business services group DCC, half-year numbers from supplier of specialised technical products and services, Doploma, and electricals retailer Currys.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday decided against activating the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), indicating that current financial and credit conditions do not warrant an additional capital requirement for banks, PTI reported.The central bank said the decision followed a review and empirical assessment of indicators used under the CCyB framework.“Based on review and empirical analysis of CCyB indicators, it has been decided that it is not necessary to activate CCyB at this point in time,” RBI said in a statement.Under the RBI (Commercial Banks – Prudential Norms on Capital Adequacy) Directions, 2025, the CCyB framework is activated when financial conditions indicate rising systemic risks linked to excessive credit growth.The framework primarily relies on the credit-to-GDP gap as a key indicator, along with supplementary metrics.According to the RBI, the CCyB mechanism is intended to serve two broad objectives.Firstly, it requires a bank to build up a buffer of capital in good times, which may be used to maintain the flow of credit to the real sector in difficult times.Secondly, it achieves the broader macro-prudential goal of restricting the banking sector from indiscriminate lending in the periods of excess credit growth that have often been associated with the building up of system-wide risk.The framework was introduced globally after the 2008 financial crisis as part of measures proposed by the Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS) under the Basel framework to strengthen financial system resilience.
The company has announced plans to build seven new models in Europe including a small electric hatchback.
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