Business
UK economy set to have recorded modest growth amid budget concerns
The UK economy is expected to have grown modestly again in the last three months of 2025 amid pressure from budget uncertainty, according to economists.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will shed light on how the economy fared when it reveals the latest UK GDP (gross domestic product) data for December, and the final quarter and year as a whole, on Thursday.
Economists have broadly predicted that the economy grew by 0.1% in the quarter, following growth of 0.1% in the third quarter.
But some have suggested that fourth-quarter growth could tip slightly higher after stronger-than-expected activity in November and that clarity following the autumn budget could have supported firms in the run-up to Christmas.
It comes after previous figures from the ONS showed that the economy contracted by 0.1% in October and then expanded by 0.3% in November as the manufacturing sector was boosted by recovering production at Jaguar Land Rover after its major cyber attack.
But December is predicted to have seen no growth, according to estimates by Pantheon Macroeconomics.
A number of industry surveys also pointed towards weak data for December, such as the month’s construction industry PMI survey data which showed a continued deep decline across housing, commercial construction and civil engineering.
But others suggested that improved certainty following the budget may have helped drive a rise in spending, albeit still at modest levels.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said: “it is likely that economic activity picked up after the budget once that cloud of uncertainty shifted to the rearview mirror in December.
“Plus, there could have been an improvement in the services sector with consumers spending on things like food and beverages, retail, and hotels around the festive season.”
The fourth quarter as a whole hampered by worries about the budget has seen key indicators point towards an improvement in the key services sector, as consumer spending rises.
Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said GDP growth “could tip to 0.2%” as a result, but held his prediction of 0.1%.
He said: “We think the broad thrust from activity in the services sub-sectors in December indicates that budget uncertainty is already fading quickly.”
Investec experts are pencilling in growth of 0.2% for December and 0.2% for the fourth quarter as a whole.
This would leave annual growth at 1.4%, up from 1.1% in 2024.
Sandra Horsfield, at Investec Economics, said: “The big picture is that the UK economy had defied the gloomy popular narrative and outperformed expectations during 2025 – our forecast equates to GDP growth of 1.4% for the full year, whereas the consensus forecast in January 2025 had been for 1.2% GDP growth.
“We project a similar story of resilience and outperformance relative to consensus for 2026, as utilities investment and, eventually, housebuilding accelerate – the latter with a little help from further falls in interest rates too.
“The consensus forecast for this year is 1%, against our own forecast of 1.3%.”
Nevertheless, the broader outlook for UK growth is still muted.
The Bank of England said on Thursday last week it believes the economy grew by 1.4% last year, reducing its previous estimate of 1.5%.
It also cut its growth forecast for 2026, from 1.2% to 0.9%, and for 2027, from 1.6% to 1.5%.
A sign sits outside of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Roybal campus in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S. March 18, 2026.
Megan Varner | Reuters
One American has tested positive for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo in connection to the deadly outbreak in central Africa that global health agencies are racing to contain, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday.
The person was exposed as part of their work in Congo, developed symptoms over the weekend and tested positive late Sunday, Dr. Satish Pillai, the CDC’s Ebola response incident manager, told reporters on a call. The CDC and State Department are working to move that individual and six other Americans exposed to Ebola to Germany for treatment, care and monitoring.
But Pillai emphasized that no cases tied to the outbreak have been confirmed in the U.S., and that the overall risk to the American public and travelers remains low.
Still, the CDC also announced on Monday that for the next 30 days, it will restrict entry into the country for people without a U.S. passport who were in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan or Uganda in the last three weeks.
The update came one day after the World Health Organization declared the Ebola epidemic a “public health emergency of international concern.” The outbreak does not meet the criteria of a “pandemic emergency,” but the WHO warned that the high positivity rate and increasing cases and deaths point toward a “potentially much larger outbreak” than what is being detected and reported.
As of Sunday, more than 300 suspected cases and 88 suspected deaths have been reported, primarily in Congo but also in neighboring Uganda, according to the CDC.
The specific virus involved in this outbreak, called Bundibugyo, has no vaccine or treatment. Historically, that virus has death rates ranging from 25% to 50%, the CDC added.
But agency officials told reporters on Monday that work is underway to develop a monoclonal antibody therapy as a potential treatment for this specific strain of Ebola.
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The FTSE 100 closed higher on Monday, recouping most of Friday’s hefty falls amid a calmer bond market and as Iran responded to the latest US peace proposal.
The FTSE 100 closed up 128.38 points, 1.3%, at 10,323.75. The FTSE 250 ended up 15.56 points, 0.1%, at 22,611.70, but the AIM All-Share fell 8.72 points, 1.1%, at 800.17.
Iran said it had responded to a new US proposal aimed at ending the war, adding that diplomatic exchanges continue despite Iranian media reports describing Washington’s demands as excessive, AFP reported.
Washington and Tehran have been swapping proposals in an effort to end the conflict, which the US and Israel launched on February 28, but they have held only a single round of talks despite a fragile ceasefire.
“As we announced yesterday, our concerns were conveyed to the American side,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told a news briefing, adding that exchanges were “continuing through the Pakistani mediator”.
Mr Baqaei defended Iran’s demands, including the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad and the lifting of long-standing sanctions.
“The points raised are Iranian demands that have been firmly defended by the Iranian negotiating team in every round of negotiations,” he said.
But with no signs of clear progress, the oil price remained inflated and volatile.
Brent crude for July delivery was trading at 110.80 dollars a barrel on Monday, up compared to 108.83 at the time of the equities close in London on Friday.
After a frantic Friday, the bond markets calmed, while sterling also rebounded as investors weighed the latest political developments.
The yield on UK 10-year gilts traded at 5.14% compared to 5.17% at the same time on Friday.
The pound traded at 1.3397 dollars on Monday afternoon, up from 1.3319 on Friday. Against the euro, sterling firmed to 1.1506 euros from 1.1462 on Friday.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer insisted he would not set out a timetable to leave No 10 as potential leadership challenger Andy Burnham vowed to “change Labour” if he is successful in his effort to return to Parliament.
The Prime Minister said he still wants to lead Labour into the next general election amid calls from within the party to set out a timetable for his exit.
Greater Manchester Mayor Mr Burnham hopes to be Labour’s candidate in the Makerfield by-election, which could provide him with a route back to the Commons to challenge for the party leadership and the keys to Downing Street.
Speaking to broadcasters in London, Sir Keir said he was not going to set out a timetable to stand down if Mr Burnham returns to Westminster.
He added: “I do want to fight the next election. Obviously, I recognise that after the local election results, the elections in Wales and Scotland as well, that the first task is obviously turning things around and making sure that my focus is in the right place.”
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said growth in the UK economy will be stronger this year than previously thought.
The IMF updated its growth projections a month after warning of a sharp slowdown caused by the global energy shock from the US-Iran war.
The influential financial body said it was now predicting UK gross domestic product to rise by 1% in 2026, higher than the 0.8% growth it was forecasting last month.
Responding to the latest report, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “The IMF upgrading its growth forecasts and backing our fiscal strategy is yet more proof that this Government has the right economic plan.”
In Europe, equity markets on Monday, the Cac 40 in Paris ended up 0.4%, and the Dax 40 in Frankfurt advanced 1.5%.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.7% lower.
On the FTSE 100, Whitbread closed up 2.3% after Corvex Management urged the Premier Inn owner to put itself up for sale, slamming its recently announced new five-year strategic plan.
In a damning letter to Whitbread management, the New York-based activist hedge fund called the status quo “untenable” and said that the need to pursue “meaningful strategic and structural reform had become unignorable”.
As a result, Corvex, which holds a stake of around 7% in Whitbread, said the only “credible” path to unlocking value at Whitbread is a sale of the company.
Anglo America fell 1.4% as it struck a deal to sell its portfolio of steelmaking coal mines in Australia to Dhilmar for up to 3.88 billion dollars in cash.
The London-based mining house said Dhilmar will pay the FTSE 100-listing 2.3 billion dollars upfront, and the deal has a price-linked earnout of up to 1.58 billion dollars.
Anglo American chief executive officer Duncan Wanblad said: “This agreement represents another major step in the simplification of our portfolio ahead of completing our merger with Teck. Through this transaction, we will complete our exit from steelmaking coal.”
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said: “This not only strengthens the balance sheet, ahead of its planned merger with Canada’s Teck Resources, but also keeps it exposed to future strength in coal prices.”
Capita shares rose 8.9% as the London-based outsourcing and business services company said adjusted revenue rose 2.9% on-year in the first four months of 2026, which it said was in line with expectations.
Looking ahead, Capita said it continues to expect a low to mid-single digit revenue climb in Capita Public Service and expects mid-teen revenue growth in its Pension Solutions business.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Centrica, up 7.70p at 196.95p, National Grid, up 43.50p at 1,231.50p, Pearson, up 37.00p at 1,136.50p, Relx, up 81.00p at 2,504.00p, and SSE, up 74.00p at 2,345.00p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were 3i Group, down 128.00p at 2,082.00p, Airtel Africa, down 15.60p at 312.80p, Mondi, down 16.40p at 734.60p, Polar Capital Technology Trust, down 12.50p at 659.00p and Diploma, down 95.00p at 6,625.00p.
Tuesday’s global economic calendar has UK consumer and wholesale inflation figures, eurozone inflation data and the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Tuesday’s local corporate calendar has full-year results from business services group DCC, half-year numbers from supplier of specialised technical products and services, Doploma, and electricals retailer Currys.
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