Business
UK interest rates set to stay at 4%, but policymakers ‘deeply divided’
UK interest rates are widely expected to be kept at 4% but policymakers are “deeply divided” about the threat of inflation, economists say.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will make its next decision on interest rates on Thursday.
Many economists expect borrowing costs to be kept on hold following signs that inflation is continuing to cool, and as the Bank awaits measures announced in November’s autumn Budget.
However, some experts, including banking giants Barclays and Goldman Sachs, are predicting a cut to 3.75%.
This is because they think policymakers might be swayed by recent economic data which signals a need to reduce borrowing costs further.
Most economists agree that there will be divisions among the nine-person committee when it comes to this week’s vote.
James Smith, a UK developed market economist for ING, said: “Inflation has almost certainly peaked.
“Food inflation – a critical concern at the Bank of England this summer – fell back in September and is now running half a percentage point below official forecasts.
“This all comes at a time when the Bank is visibly divided on how problematic inflation really is.”
Official figures showed that UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation stayed at 3.8% in September, the same level as both July and August, with food prices easing during the month.
The headline figure came in below the 4% that many economists had been expecting.
But Mr Smith said that, while the MPC was “deeply divided”, it will likely remain cautious about the risk of inflation being persistent and opt to keep rates on hold this month.
He also said the Bank was crucially waiting on the outcome of the Budget on November 26, adding: “While the contours of the Budget are becoming clearer, the Bank’s rules mean it can’t act on Government policy until it’s official.”
He added that an interest rate cut in December was now “becoming more likely” in response to potential tax-raising measures.
On the other hand, Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, predicted that the recent inflation data would be enough to tip policymakers towards cutting rates on Thursday.
Coupled with data pointing to slowing wage growth among UK workers, he said this would be likely to give the committee more confidence that inflation was set to ease.
It comes after economists at US investment bank Goldman Sachs also predicted that recent figures would be enough to convince the Bank to cut rates to 3.75%.
This marks a shift in sentiment after many experts were ruling out a rate cut in November and said borrowing costs may not be reduced until 2026, coming as a setback to millions of mortgage holders still expected to refinance on to higher rates.
Business
Iran oil returns: India set to receive first cargo in 5 years, tanker heads to Gujarat – The Times of India
India is set to receive its first shipment of Iranian crude oil since 2019, with a tanker carrying 600,000 barrels of oil en route to Gujarat following a temporary sanctions waiver by the US, according to PTI.Ship-tracking data indicates that the vessel Ping Shun is headed towards Vadinar port, marking a potential revival of Indo-Iran oil trade after nearly five years.“The Indo-Iranian oil trade has flickered back to life. Following the US administration’s decision to grant a 30-day window for Iranian oil “on the water” due to regional conflict, the vessel Ping Shun is now en route to Vadinar (in Gujarat) with 600,000 barrels of crude. This is the first such delivery since May 2019 and comes at a critical time for Indian refiners facing tightening inventories,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling at Kpler.The development follows Washington’s decision earlier this month to allow a 30-day window for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea, aimed at easing global oil prices amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. The window is set to expire on April 19.While the buyer of the cargo remains unidentified, Vadinar houses a 20 million tonnes per annum refinery operated by Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy and also serves as a landing point for crude supplies to inland refineries such as BPCL’s Bina unit.India’s oil ministry has so far maintained that any decision to resume imports from Iran will depend on techno-commercial viability.Before sanctions were tightened in 2018, India was among the largest buyers of Iranian crude, importing both Iran Light and Iran Heavy grades due to refinery compatibility and favourable pricing terms.Imports ceased in May 2019 after US sanctions were reimposed, with India shifting to alternative suppliers including the Middle East and the US. At its peak, Iranian crude accounted for 11.5 per cent of India’s total imports.India had imported about 518,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in 2018, which declined to 268,000 bpd between January and May 2019 during a sanctions waiver period before dropping to zero thereafter.“The Aframax Ping Shun (IMO 9231901) loaded with Iranian crude oil from Kharg Island in early March has emerged as the first vessel observed signalling a destination of Vadinar, India since May 2019, following sanction reimposition on Iranian oil by the first Trump administration,” Ritolia said.The tanker is estimated to have loaded around 600,000 barrels from Kharg Island around March 4 and is expected to reach Vadinar on April 4.An estimated 95 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently stored on vessels at sea, of which around 51 million barrels could be supplied to India, while the rest may be directed to China and Southeast Asian markets.However, payment mechanisms remain uncertain as Iran continues to be excluded from the SWIFT global banking system, complicating international transactions.Earlier, payments were routed in euros through Turkish banks, but that channel is no longer available following renewed sanctions restrictions.Iran was first disconnected from SWIFT in 2012 due to EU sanctions over its nuclear programme, with further disruptions in 2018 after the US reimposed sanctions, limiting its ability to receive payments and access foreign currency reserves.
Business
Pottery firm Denby appoints administrators in ‘necessary step’
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