The Asian ocean freight market is navigating a complex landscape of short-term seasonal surges and long-term structural overcapacity, according to UK-based Transport Intelligence (Ti).

While rates initially jumped in early January, weak underlying demand and the potential return of vessels to the Suez Canal are creating a volatile environment for shippers, it noted.

Carriers pushed through general rate increases (GRIs) in early January this year, briefly lifting China-to-US West Coast rates above $3,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). However, these hikes were largely unsustainable due to weak volumes, with rates quickly correcting to the $1,800-$2,200 range by mid-month, the logistics and supply chain market research firm said in an insights brief.

Asia’s ocean freight market is navigating short-term seasonal surges and long-term structural overcapacity, Ti said.
Asia’s air freight market is seeing a significant ‘post-peak’ correction following a record-breaking end to 2025.
Warehousing capacity in the Asia-Pacific is under severe strain in late January as manufacturing slows and labour shortages emerge ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Seasonal demand ahead of the Lunar New Year (starting mid-February 2026) has pushed North Europe rates to roughly $2,700 per FEU as of mid-January. This is a significant recovery from the October 2025 lows of $1,300 per FEU.

Despite a peak ahead of the holiday, Intra-Asia rates have begun to ‘cool’ in mid-January, settling at an average of $661 per 40-feet container as new services and capacity entered the market.

The Asian air freight market is witnessing a significant ‘post-peak’ correction following a record-breaking end to 2025. While rates have dropped sharply from their December highs, demand remains resilient in key high-tech sectors, and a ‘mini-peak’ is expected in late January ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Spot rates from major hubs like Hong Kong and Shanghai fell significantly in early January as year-end peak season demand evaporated.

Despite the rate correction, global air cargo tonnages jumped by 26 per cent in the first full week of January 2026 compared to the end-of-year slump, with the Asia-Pacific region seeing an 8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in chargeable weight.

Volumes from Southeast Asia to the United States rose by 10 per cent YoY in early January, driven by importers continuing to diversify sourcing away from China.

Warehousing capacity in the Asia-Pacific is under severe strain in late January as manufacturing slows and labour shortages emerge ahead of the Lunar New Year.

India closed 2025 with 36.9 million sq ft of warehouse leasing (16-per cent YoY growth), a trend continuing into early 2026 with high demand in Delhi National Capital Region and Chennai.

After a period of oversupply, development pipelines are expected to drop by a third by 2027, making 2026 a critical ‘inflection point’ for occupiers to secure quality space before terms tighten again.

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Following a record export value of $475 billion achieved in 2025, up by 17 per cent year on year (YoY), Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade aims at adding nearly $38 billion to the figure this year.

The goal, however, is challenging due to external pressures, including stricter technical barriers, reciprocal tariffs on goods exported to the United States, and the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for selected industrial products.

Therefore, major export industries in the country have started restructuring and adjusting strategies early in the year to seize market opportunities.

Following a record export value of $475 billion achieved in 2025—up by 17 per cent YoY—Vietnam aims at adding nearly $38 billion to the figure in 2026.
Major export industries in the country have begun restructuring and adjusting strategies early in the year to seize market opportunities.
The textile and garment sector, which earned $46 billion in 2025, has set a target of $50 billion in exports in 2026.

The textile and garment sector, which earned $46 billion in 2025, has set a target of $50 billion in exports in 2026.

The sector is focusing on strengthening domestic supply chains, raising localisation rates and making more effective use of free trade agreements (FTAs), Vu Duc Giang, chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS), was cited as saying by a domestic media outlet.

Exports may grow by 15-16 per cent this year, driven by market expansion and a shift towards higher-value products, according to MB Securities’ Vietnam Outlook 2026 report.

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Goods exports from the Netherlands to the United States declined in the first ten months of 2025, with total export value falling 4.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to €27.5 billion (~$33 billion), according to the Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Exports had stood at €28.9 billion in the same period of 2024. The downturn began in July 2025, after steady growth in the first half of the year.

The data showed that the decline was driven mainly by weaker domestic exports, with goods produced in the Netherlands down 8 per cent YoY. In contrast, re-exports to the US rose 3.9 per cent during the period. Exports to the US have fallen every month on a YoY basis since July, CBS said in a press release.

Trade flows were influenced by uncertainty around US import tariffs. In the first half of 2025, trade between the two countries continued to grow, possibly as companies advanced shipments ahead of announced tariff measures.

Goods exports from the Netherlands to the United States fell 4.7 per cent YoY to €27.5 billion (~$33 billion) in the first ten months of 2025, driven by an 8 per cent drop in domestic exports, according to CBS.
Re-exports rose 3.9 per cent, while tariff uncertainty weighed on trade.
Imports from the US increased 1.9 per cent to €48.1 billion (~$57.7 billion).

Meanwhile, imports from the United States rose 1.9 per cent YoY to €48.1 billion (~$57.7 billion) in the first ten months of 2025.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)