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We Made More Than a Thousand Pizzas to Find the Best Pizza Ovens

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We Made More Than a Thousand Pizzas to Find the Best Pizza Ovens


Compare the Top 8 Pizza Ovens

Tips and FAQ

Who We Are and How We Tested

WIRED reviewer Adrienne So has tested many pizza ovens and made more than a thousand pizzas over the past seven years. WIRED reviewer Matthew Korfhage is a longtime food writer who’s written about pizza on both coasts over 15 years, from sausage slices in Portland to the story of Mexican pizza in Philadelphia.

We test each pizza oven over the course of a few weeks, using homemade dough (Adrienne likes Ooni’s classic pizza dough recipe), fresh dough balls procured from local pizzerias, store-bought fresh dough, and frozen pizzas. We use infrared thermometers to make sure the temperature of the cooking surface is consistent (and is what the built-in thermometer says it is). Where relevant, we also cross-check built-in thermometers on each oven against our own ambient thermometers.

Pizza ovens are also quite a bit more versatile than you might think. Over years of testing, Adrienne has used her pizza ovens to sear steaks, quick-cook salmon, and pan-fry broccoli. Matthew has air-fried wings in a pizza oven, grilled pork chops, charred asparagus, and blackened chicken.

It’s taken me many years, and many thousands of pizzas, to refine my pizza-making technique. And to be honest, my Neapolitan-style pizzas don’t really meet the standard set by the Associazione Verace Pizza Napoletana, the world authority on Neapolitan pizzas. (Ooni pizza ovens, including previous models of our top-rated Karu 2, are the only models we recommend that the AVPN has also recommended.)

But over the years, I have accumulated a few tips for those of you who find making a pizza to be a little bit awkward or intimidating. If you’ve refrigerated your dough, bring it to room temperature first. Sprinkle flour lightly on the peel before you stretch the dough across and assemble your pizza, to keep dough from sticking. (Some use cornmeal, but note that cornmeal can burn and become bitter in a hot oven.) Be patient and stretch your dough from the inside out. It is cheating, but I also am guilty of using a tiny rolling pin ($10) to help me get the dough as thin as possible.

An authentic Neapolitan pie will use a few specific ingredients. When you’re making your own dough, reach for 00 flour, which is milled specifically for pizza and pasta. Fresh mozzarella will make your pizza damp, so I use a mix of fresh and shredded, low-moisture cheese for the cheesiest, meltiest pie. If you’re not sticking to a strictly Neapolitan recipe, we also have a few favorite pies we’d like to recommend. Senior director Martin Cizmar and I like a good Buffalo pie with Frank’s Red Hot and pickles. I also recently tried Brightland’s Pizza Oil in a squeeze bottle; while it’s good as a finishing sauce to drizzle over pies, you could make your own for much cheaper by putting olive oil and herbs in a squeeze bottle.

Besides ‘zas, I cook everything from salmon to steak to chicken thighs in my pizza oven by preheating a cast iron pan in a hot oven and popping the food right in. For more guidance, Ooni has a cookbook; chef Francis Mallmann’s books are also a good source of inspiration. —Adrienne So

Is your patio already occupied by a giant Traeger? Your grill or smoker probably has a pizza attachment that you can buy for less than a new oven. Cizmar’s favorite is the Yoder Smoker wood-fired oven attachment ($499), which has saved him from many a night of pellet fire flameouts. It sits under the smoker’s hood, atop a steel sheet that sits over the firebox. The sheet is a diffuser and has holes of increasing size as you move away from the fire, so that the section farthest from the flame gets more exposure. The design provides a consistent temperature along the oven’s floor, and it works well, with the farthest corners of the oven still cresting 650 degrees Fahrenheit.

You can also turn your normal, indoor oven into a pizza oven. While most ovens max out at 500 degrees Fahrenheit, one way to impart more heat to your pizza is by preheating a baking surface with a high thermal mass, which maintains temperature stability and directly delivers its stored-up heat energy. An easy way to do this is by preheating a cast-iron pan or baking steel. A classic Lloyd pan is one preferred tool for Detroit- or Sicilian-style pan pizza, which works well in conventional ovens.

Several of our favorite grill and pizza oven manufacturers, like Kamado and Weber, also make ceramic pizza stones. Check out our guide to the Best Portable Grills and Grill Accessories for more.

Honorable Mentions

We’ve tried a lot of pizza ovens. Here are a few that we liked that didn’t quite make our top picks.

Photograph: Stove Pi Prime

Solo Stove Pi Prime for $450: The Solo Stove Pi Prime remains a very, very tight contender for our top gas oven pick. If you’ve heard of Solo Stove, it’s because of its smokeless, stainless steel fire pits. This made the company’s transition to high-heat pizza ovens more or less seamless. Instead of the conventional elongated design, the Pi Prime oven’s fuel attachments are long and slim and hug the back of the oven. This allows Solo Stove to keep its signature round, symmetrical design. This really is a great design, and this remarkably compact propane pizza oven has previously been among WIRED’s top picks. The cooking surface is large enough to accommodate a large Lodge cast-iron pan. If you have a small backyard, the top’s flat surface is a convenient storage space, and the stove doesn’t sacrifice any of its heating capabilities for these details. So why is the Koda 2 better than Solo Stove Pi Prime in our books? The Koda 2 allows for bigger 14-inch pies, and the broader opening makes launching a bit easier. (But note, if you live in a windy area, the Pi Prime offers better wind shielding than the Koda.)

Our 8 Favorite Pizza Ovens Wood Gas Electric and Grill

Photograph: Matthew Korfhage

Halo Versa 16 for $499: At first blush, the Halo Versa 16 appears to offer much the same specs as the All-Clad gas-powered pizza oven, but for half the price. It’s got a rotating pizza stone, room for a 16-inch pie, and a clever extra feature: a little heater under the pizza stone. This said, the built-in thermometer isn’t accurate (at all!), and insulation isn’t the best, leading to a hot exterior. The oven doesn’t reach its advertised top temps of 950 degrees Fahrenheit, though it can generally heat the stone to about 800 degrees. Consider this a better oven for New York–style pies, at a quite affordable price when you take into account the rotating stone.

Gozney pizza oven with a lit fire

Gozney

Gozney Roccbox for $499: When Adrienne So first reviewed the dual-fuel Gozney Roccbox, she praised the fast recovery time that has made the Roccbox popular among pizza pop-up chefs, allowing her to make 10 pies in less than 30 minutes when cooking pizza with propane. That said, few home pizza makers need such throughput, and the 44-pound device is heavier than other competitors. The optional woodbox was oppressively difficult to use, for those who want the ability to cook with fire. But the Gozney’s price, previously among the most expensive entrants, now seems downright reasonable. And Matthew Korfhage’s experience using the default propane option has been good, with terrific temperature stability.

Ooni Karu, First Edition for $349: Ooni is still selling the previous generation oven of WIRED’s top pick, the Karu 2, for about $100 less. Like other Ooni pizza ovens, OG Karu is an excellent oven—light, portable, and easy to clean—and WIRED reviewer Adrienne So couldn’t stop using the thing after first testing it. Nonetheless the newer Karu 2 heats more evenly, and holds more fuel than the first-generation oven.

Ooni Koda 12 for $399: The original Ooni Koda 12 is a mere 21 pounds, making it the most light and portable Koda. Its thin, powder-coated steel shell insulates well enough that it remains cool to the touch, even when the fire is burning. Just slide in the baking stone, screw on the propane tank, and you’re ready to go. The door fits 12-inch pizza peels and 10-inch cast-iron skillets. However, you should not store it outside.

This image may contain Appliance

Photograph: Breville

Breville Pizzaiolo for $800: The Breville Pizzaiolo was our prior top-pick electric pizza oven, and like a lot of Breville devices it offers beauteous ease of use and admirable technological sophistication, with three separate heating elements and two sensors that make sure each part of your pie is perfectly cooked. Where the first-generation Ooni Volt edged it out was with better insulation, a higher max temperature, and more versatility for cooking other things besides pizza. Note, however, that the Volt will soon be fully phased out for the second-generation Volt 2, which follows Breville’s lead in moving toward greater automation.

Image may contain Device Electrical Device Appliance Burner and Oven

Cuisinart 3-in-1 Propel Pizza Oven and Grill for $600: This Cuisinart Propel 3-in-1 offers an ingenious design. It’s a four-burner stand-up grill and griddle that’s perfectly good for burgers or pancakes—but with a pizza stone and mount, and a domed pizza lid. A smoked-glass door and temperature gauge lets you monitor your pie and turn your pizza without losing all the heat, while the side griddle means you can even cook toppings or sauces on the same device, without having to wander inside and outside. The extra workspace offered by the side tables is likewise truly welcome. But there are trade-offs to this versatility. You can heat your stone above 900 degrees Fahrenheit without trouble, but you won’t get reliable ambient baking temps above 750. And so there’s a bit of a learning curve. You’ll want to turn your middle burners down but leave the side burners on, to cook something between a New York pie and a Neapolitan. The build’s also a little clattery, and the poorly made burner knobs have an irritating habit of slipping on their pegs. This last flaw knocked this oven down to our honorable mentions, despite the Propel’s cleverness and versatility.

Small pizza oven sitting on a black shelf outdoors beside a house

Photograph: Adrienne So

Ninja Wood-Fired Oven for $300: If you’re looking for a remarkably sturdy and versatile outdoor oven, this is a pretty good pick with a top temperature of 700 degrees Fahrenheit. The door is a little sticky, which makes baking pizza at high heat a little tricky, but if you want one device that can do everything from smoking a pork shoulder to making muffins to bake a pizza pie, this is your pick.

The Piezano for $100: This TikTok-popular oven is affordable, small, and convenient. It looks a little like a waffle iron, and comes with handy double paddles for easier placement. Astonishingly, its claims of heating the top and bottom elements to 800 degrees Fahrenheit are accurate, and it takes about 15 minutes, which allows for short cook times. But note the heating element at the top doesn’t cover the whole surface area, so you have to rotate your pies pretty frequently. Also, opening the top like a waffle maker means that it doesn’t retain heat very well. It dropped by 100 to 200 degrees between pies and requires a bit of recovery time.

Also Tested

Image may contain Appliance Device Electrical Device Microwave Oven Adult and Person

Photograph: Matthew Korfhage

Current Backyard Model P for $699: No less a TV food personage than Alton Brown has signed on as an endorser of this 1,750-watt electric indoor/outdoor pizza oven, which will heat to 850 degrees Fahrenheit using a standard power outlet. Heat is relatively even across the oven, and it’ll get up to top temp in around 30 minutes. But cook settings are constrained to a few preset levels (New-York style, thin crust, Neapolitan, frozen), whose temps and cooking times can be a bit fussy to fiddle with. The app and on-device controls tend to offer more quirks than functionality. Display temp and actual temp don’t always match, and its top thermal elements turn on and off like the lights in a David Lynch movie, according to what the company calls a proprietary algorithm. Still, you can make a great pizza on this thing, and you can make it indoors. Current says it plans to add more functions and cooking modes in future updates, and we’ll keep testing. But it feels less than fully baked at the moment, especially at its price.

Pizzacraft Pizzaque for $130: This oven is adorable and affordable, and you can stand it in your driveway and cook a good pizza while sitting in your camp chair. However, it just doesn’t get as hot or cook as evenly as a better-insulated oven does.

The Best Accessories

Some pizza ovens provide you with proprietary accessories to set you on your pizza path. But we’ve also found a few extras to be helpful along the way:

A handheld infrared thermometer for $11: Even if the oven has a built-in thermometer, a handheld infrared thermometer is a great way to check the temperature on different areas of the pizza stone. It’s also important to make sure the stone has time to reheat after each pizza. For pizza purposes, this affordable one should be accurate enough to suit your needs.

A wooden pizza peel for $34: If you own multiple peels, it’s quick and easy to prep one pizza while another is baking. WIRED reviewers Adrienne So and Matthew Korfhage each own several peels, including a useful small turning peel. But for launching, the dough is much less likely to stick on a wooden peel, especially if you first sprinkle on some semolina or flour.

A cast-iron skillet for $25: You can also use a cast-iron pan in your pizza oven to sear steaks or pan-roast broccoli. Lodge’s pans work just as well as much more expensive options.

Heat-resistant gloves for $20: That cast iron gets extremely hot, so you’ll also need a good pair of mitts. (Even these won’t protect your hands for long, so you’ll need a place near the oven to set the pan down.)

Fire starters for $20: If you’ve ever been intimidated by the idea of cooking with wood, don’t be! These fire starters make it quick and simple. Just light the end with a match, drop it in the fuel tray, and line up a few oak sticks on top. Be sure to keep your wood dry if you don’t want to create a smoke stack in your backyard.


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Do Waterproof Sneakers Keep the Slosh In or Out? Let WIRED Explain

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Do Waterproof Sneakers Keep the Slosh In or Out? Let WIRED Explain


Running with wet feet, in wet socks, in wet shoes is the perfect recipe for blisters. It’s also a fast track to low morale. Nothing dampens spirits quicker than soaked socks. On ultra runs, I always carry spares. And when faced with wet, or even snowy, mid-winter miles, the lure of weatherproof shoes is strong. Anything that can stem the soggy tide is worth a go, right?

This isn’t as simple an answer as it sounds. In the past, a lot of runners—that includes me—felt waterproof shoes came with too many trade-offs, like thicker, heavier uppers that change the feel of your shoes or a tendency to run hot and sweaty. In general, weatherproof shoes are less comfortable.

But waterproofing technology has evolved, and it might be time for a rethink. Winterized shoes can now be as light as the regular models, breathability is better, and the comfort levels have improved. Brands are also starting to add extra puddle protection to some of the most popular shoes. So it’s time to ask the questions again: Just how much difference does a bit of Gore-Tex really make? Are there still trade-offs for that extra protection? And is it really worth paying the premium?

I spoke to the waterproofing pros, an elite ultra runner who has braved brutal conditions, and some expert running shoe testers. Here’s everything you need to know about waterproof running shoes in 2026. Need more information? Check out our guide to the Best Running Shoes, our guide to weatherproof fabrics, and our guide to the Best Rain Jackets.

Jump To

How Do Waterproof Running Shoes Work?

On a basic level, waterproof shoes add extra barriers between your nice dry socks and the wet world outside. If you’re running through puddles deep enough to breach your heel collars, you’re still going to get wet feet. But waterproof shoes can protect against rain, wet grass, snow, and smaller puddles.

Gore-Tex is probably the most common waterproofing tech in footwear, but it’s not the only solution in town. Some brands have proprietary tech, or you might come across alternative systems like eVent and Sympatex. That GTX stamp is definitely the one you’re most likely to encounter, so here’s how GTX works.

The water resistance comes from a layered system that is composed of a durable water repellent (DWR) coating to the uppers with an internal membrane, along with other details like taped seams, more sealed uppers with tighter woven mesh, gusseted tongues, and higher, gaiter-style heel collars.



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UK government calls for review into mobile market | Computer Weekly

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UK government calls for review into mobile market | Computer Weekly


The UK government is launching a call for evidence on how technology, changing market dynamics and regulation are shaping investment in mobile networks.

The call for evidence was introduced as an important step in securing a “comprehensive” view of how the UK mobile market was changing, and identifying what more can be done to support investment, innovation and competition for the benefit of consumers and business. It will look to assess the impact of factors affecting investment in high-quality connectivity by 2030, identify actions to support the sector to achieve government objectives over the next decade, and assess how the regulatory framework can be improved to support investment, innovation and competition.

As part of this, the government is announcing an action plan based on four key principles: drive investment in comprehensive, high-quality connectivity by 2030; deliver for consumers; support innovation and growth across the economy; and provide secure and resilient connectivity.

Introducing the call, Liz Lloyd, parliamentary under-secretary of state at the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and minister for digital economy, said that in an era of rapid technological transformation, new technologies and wireless services were critical to day-to-day lives, the economy and society in general.

Lloyd added that digital infrastructure is the core enabler of this transformation, and that it was crucial the UK’s telecommunications networks were ready for the future. She stressed that mobile and other digital networks, such as fibre networks, will drive growth and innovation across the country, deliver modern public services, increasingly underpin critical national infrastructure, and be essential for ensuring people everywhere were digitally included.

To that end, she said, its ambition remains for all populated areas to have access to higher-quality standalone 5G by 2030, and the immediate challenge was to secure investment to deliver this ambition by 2030, driving digital inclusion and ensuring business could depend on the connectivity that underpins modern life.  

“Our coverage ambition goes hand in hand with affordability of access so that everyone can carry out essential online activities and, aligned with the government’s tech adoption agenda, supports take-up of premium 5G-enabled services across the economy,” said Lloyd.

Looking forward, Lloyd said the government must also anticipate how the mobile market – and technologies that underpin it – will evolve, and what this means for its objectives over the next decade, shaping a framework that supports innovation, investment and the needs of future users.

In its action plan, the minister referenced the digital inclusion action plan, in which access to secure and reliable connectivity was seen as the foundation to ensuring that people everywhere can get online. That said, delivering these benefits was dependent on substantial investment in mobile networks.

To date, the UK mobile network operators have been investing heavily in the country’s mobile networks, averaging £2bn annually between 2020 and 2024. In particular, as a result of the merger between the two component parties, VodafoneThree has committed to investing £11bn in creating its merged network, while competitors BTEE and Virgin Media O2 have also planned to invest in upgrading their networks. For example, BTEE has an ambition to deliver standalone 5G to 99% of the population by the end of 2030.

Lloyd assured that the UK government would support industry to deliver this investment, including through removing barriers to deployment and ensuring digital connectivity is appropriately considered and built into new infrastructure projects from the outset. However, she warned that the UK mobile sector stands at a critical inflection point of rapid market changes, coupled with persistent investment challenges.

Lloyd said governments and regulators across the globe are considering how their telecoms policies and regulatory frameworks can best drive innovation and investment in this new era. That, she emphasised, is why it is necessary to act immediately to understand the challenges, safeguard the UK’s international competitiveness, and deliver the high-quality, nationwide connectivity the UK relies on.

The call to action and the four-point plan were designed to realise the potential of the mobile sector, and the UK government said it recognised that doing so would require concerted and coordinated action across government and industry, to deliver the coverage needed in this decade and shape the mobile market for the future.

The government said that, in creating its call to evidence, it welcomed responses from across the ecosystem, including mobile operators, infrastructure providers, technology companies, local authorities, public sector bodies, civil society organisations, academia and investors. The call will run until 11:59pm on 21 April 2026.



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AI investment and the effect on urban digital twins | Computer Weekly

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AI investment and the effect on urban digital twins | Computer Weekly


A popular topic of conversation of late has been the existence of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and the likelihood that it will burst with great detriment to the IT industry as a whole. Yet, and perhaps surprisingly, the impact of a bursting bubble on digital twins might not be as problematic as one might think.

Ready adoption and fast diffusion of AI might warrant the tremendous investment flows of past years and could create revenue and profit streams quickly. We might as well be standing on the precipice of a bubble popping that will lead to sweeping valuation corrections. But digital twins stand to benefit from advancing AI either way. That said, the timeline of AI-enabled applications of digital twins might move, however.

Since the start of 2023, AI-related company valuations have ballooned. OpenAI is often attributed with starting the AI frenzy when releasing ChatGPT at the end of 2022. The company was valued at $29bn in 2023 and reached $500bn in October 2025, with observers wondering if the company can pull off a $1tn initial public offering soon.

AI chip leader Nvidia’s stock, meanwhile, multiplied by 13 between the beginning of 2023 and the end of October 2025, making it the first $5tn company ever. Even companies that are related but not at the centre of AI developments have increased substantially in value, with the stock price of Microsoft and Alphabet more than doubling and tripling, respectively, during that time period.

AI encompasses many different types of technologies and has many use cases, so it should be seen as an enabling technology rather than a sole application or a market per se. AI will play a major role across most application areas, but to varying degrees. Much like the way the internet shaped past decades – and will continue to shape coming decades – AI will transform industries for good in the long term. Potential potholes on the path that create setbacks are only par for the course.

Looking back to gaze ahead

It is worthwhile recalling the dot com era from the end of the last century to judge AI’s current hype. The Nasdaq Composite index – a stock index that skews toward information-technology companies – peaked at more than 5,100 points in March 2000 and then rapidly declined to a final low of barely above 1,100 points in October 2002. It took more than 12 years to move beyond 5,000 points again.

The January 2000 Super Bowl event marked the height of the bubble, with 14 in-game ads by dot com companies – only one of which is still active as an independent company today. Now, many analysts see the signs of an immense AI bubble accumulating.

Likely, a crash is in the making. Similarly to 2000, a bursting bubble does not mean AI will go away, as internet-enabled companies and business models did not vanish. On the contrary, AI will flourish as the internet did. In fact, many infrastructure elements, such as datacentres, will become affordable for general use after lofty valuations come down.

During the late 1990s, the construction of fibre communication networks was perceived as a promising business opportunity. The business never became as profitable as expected, but the initial excitement created an infrastructure of dark fibre – unused but readily available communication lines – that supports today’s business models as a commodity that can be readily leveraged.

AI as an enabling technology will boost capabilities and accelerate the use of advanced digital twins. In particular, digital twins that have to work with difficult-to-capture data and not-completely-understood real-world dynamics will benefit tremendously. Digital twins of machinery can rely on a solid understanding of physics and measurable data that sensors can capture cost-effectively.

Factory environments have many known equipment dynamics and interactions – even workers’ likely movement patterns can be plugged into simulations. But urban digital twins attempt to capture the dynamics and behaviours of relevant elements across entire cities. They are not only subject to less understood dynamics, but also phenomena that are difficult – often impossible – to measure. AI can make available data usable and create additional data of unmeasurable phenomena.

AI in digital twins also allows the use of scenarios to better prepare for sudden events that can affect the entire system in unexpected ways. For example, city managers might use it to develop strategies for unusual weather events, pandemic-like occurrences, or localised industrial accidents with ripple effects across the urban landscape.

Digital twins and AI to plan for tomorrow’s cities

Digital twins of urban environments are difficult to design, implement and maintain, but the potential commercial and societal impact such digital twins can have promises to be substantial. Because of the number of parameters, intersecting dynamics and range of conceivable scenarios, the benefits AI can provide in understanding urban environments are considerable. AI and digital twins reinforce each other.

Digital twins of urban environments are difficult to design, implement and maintain, but the potential commercial and societal impact such digital twins can have promises to be substantial

AI can speed up the building of digital twins by supporting code development for virtual environments. Such applications accelerate overall design development and allow design details to be embedded more easily. For clients and users, AI reduces costs, enables faster implementation of digital twins, and allows for quick and inexpensive changes and alterations as requirements change or new needs arise. In addition, AI can improve the interface experience between virtual environments, as well as simulations of operations and users.

Ari Lightman, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, explains: “Generative AI would be used to look at the entire simulation and turn it into a summary for humans. It could tell me things I might be missing and summarise things in a way I can understand.”

AI doesn’t only benefit digital twins, but digital twins also support AI’s capabilities. Scott Likens, emerging technology leader at PwC, points out: “We’re using digital twins to generate information for large language models…. We see an opportunity to have the digital twins generate the missing pieces of data we need, and it’s more in line with the environment because it’s based on actual data.”

Nvidia serves the market of smart cities as city planners and managers “are turning to digital twins and AI agents for urban planning scenario analysis and data-driven operational decisions”. The company is providing a range of solutions to enable users to create photo-realistic, simulation-ready digital twins of urban environments to optimise city operations.

A partnership of Japanese companies is developing the digital entertainment city Namba in Osaka, Japan. The aim is to “create the world’s first smart city that integrates artificial intelligence, extended reality and decentralised physical infrastructure networks [a blockchain-based approach to manage decentralised networks] on a city-wide scale”. The group intends to offer services beyond entertainment and tourism. Namba is a neighbourhood within Osaka, thereby limiting the claim to city-wide application of the concept.

The silver lining of AI over-investment

The existence of an AI investment bubble is increasingly perceived as a foregone conclusion. AI companies and technology suppliers are now even investing in each other’s operations, adding to lofty valuations. There are obvious indications of a bubble, but positive effects can emerge from the current investment excitement. Whatever the outcome, applications for digital twins will see their timeline solidify as the immediate future of AI plays out.

Over-investment in fibre during the dot com years ended up creating dark fibre – overbuilt fibre cables for data transmission. This infrastructure has served as a ready and inexpensive resource ever since. For AI, investment in datacentres is comparable to the fibre investment from 30 years ago

If use of AI applications proves to be an all-encompassing and rapidly growing market opportunity, the immense investment of the past couple of years will be retroactively viewed as forward-looking wisdom that locked in favourable competitive positions and profits for years to come. More likely, though, investors have outrun their headlights, and expectations of adoption and diffusion of AI applications over the next few years are overrated.

If so, there will be a shock to the system, like the burst of the dot com bubble at the beginning of the century when the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by almost 80% within 30 months. Initial warnings existed – the former chairman of the Federal Reserve used the phrase “irrational exuberance” when discussing the development of the stock market in December 1996. Warnings of an exuberant AI bubble are common today.

Bursting investment bubbles hurt investors and bring down many companies. Indeed, 25 years ago, a slew of dot com companies vanished. But related over-investment in infrastructure can make assets suddenly affordable, opening up new opportunities. Such affordability changes cost structures that enable business models that could not have become successful at previous valuations. Infrastructure overhang – infrastructure built for rapid growth that does not materialise in the short run – leads to commodification of infrastructure elements, which can democratise a technology for incumbents and startups alike.

The over-investment in fibre during the dot com years ended up creating dark fibre – overbuilt fibre cables for data transmission. This infrastructure has served as a ready and inexpensive resource ever since. For AI, investment in datacentres is comparable to the fibre investment from 30 years ago. Morgan Stanley analysts forecast datacentre spending globally of up to almost $3tn between now and 2028. The amount is staggering, and it is difficult to imagine use cases and adoption rates that will provide the required return on investment for any business model. But as initial investors see their investments decrease or vanish, new players can snap up or use related infrastructures at bargain prices.

Alkesh Shah, a tech analyst at the Bank of America, explains the underlying reason for such recurring dynamics: “You always over-estimate how fast the change will happen. And you underestimate the magnitude of the change.”

The impact digital twins will have on the marketplace will follow a similar dichotomy between today’s expectations of rate of change and tomorrow’s impact of such change. Digital twins require many technological bits and pieces to come together. And AI will play an important role in digital twins, if not tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow.



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