Weekly SPI rises 4.34% YoY on food price volatility | The Express Tribune

Pakistan’s short-term inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), rose 4.34% year-on-year (YoY) during the week ended October 9, 2025, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The annual increase reflects persistent pressure from rising food and energy prices, even as the weekly trend showed only a marginal rise of 0.17%.

PBS report revealed that price increases for chicken, wheat flour, onions and eggs were the main contributors to the latest uptick, while prices for tomatoes, bananas and potatoes registered notable declines.

The weekly SPI, which tracks prices of 51 essential commodities across 50 markets in 17 cities, showed price hikes for 21 items (41.18%), reduction in six items (11.76%) and no change in 24 items (47.06%).

The most notable increases were recorded in chicken (8.92%), onions (7.47%) and wheat flour (5.74%), three of the most widely consumed food items in Pakistani households. Other commodities showing a rise included eggs (2.25%), gur (jaggery) (1.70%), garlic (0.86%), vegetable ghee – 1kg (0.86%), vegetable ghee – 2.5kg (0.59%), firewood (0.50%) and washing soap (0.23%).

Conversely, a significant drop was noted in tomato prices, which fell 11.34%, following a sharp increase in previous weeks. Other items showing a decline included bananas (1.29%), potatoes (0.93%), LPG (0.59%), pulse gram (0.35%) and mustard oil (0.07%).

Across consumption groups, the SPI increased between 0.14% and 0.20%, indicating that inflationary pressures were felt across all income brackets. The highest weekly increase of 0.20% was recorded for the fourth quintile (upper-middle-income households), while the lowest rise of 0.14% was seen in the lowest-income group.

On a YoY basis, the SPI rose 4.34%, reflecting continued inflationary strain despite some recent stabilisation in food and fuel prices. The data highlighted steep annual increases in several essential commodities, led by tomatoes (109.82%), ladies’ sandals (55.62%), sugar (36.08%) and gas charges for the lowest slab (29.85%).

Prices of wheat flour (17.70%), pulse moong (15.90%), gur (13.79%), beef (12.66%), diesel (12.57%) and vegetable ghee (up to 11.86%) also showed notable hikes over the past year.

However, several commodities exhibited price relief compared to last year. Prices of onions dropped sharply by 43.16%, garlic fell by 28.16%, electricity charges for Q1 by 26.26%, pulse gram by 24.97% and chicken by 24.30%. Prices of potatoes (-18.51%), pulse mash (-18.17%) and tea (-17.93%) also declined.

PBS data suggests that while the pace of inflation has moderated from last year’s high levels, food price volatility remains a key concern. Upcoming seasonal shifts and changes in fuel and energy tariffs could influence price dynamics in the coming weeks.