Business
What is the Santa Rally and how do investors make money from it?
Knowing where the stock market is going next for certain would be a superpower that puts wealth in the palm of your hand. While not even Warren Buffett would claim to have such an ability, there are many factors to draw on which offer clues to people starting investing as to what is likely to happen.
For a start, major stock markets all consistently rise over long timeframes of multiple years. There are short-run falls along the way, but over the course of five years in most cases, and certainly over ten years, the leading markets such as the United States’ and United Kingdom’s have always made their way higher.
The so-called Santa Rally is also an example which provides a good steer on how the stock market could move.
As the name suggests, it occurs close to Christmas. To be precise, the Santa Rally is a rise in the stock market that often happens across the last five days of trading in December and the first two in January.
The S&P 500, which is the top stock market index for the US, has risen by 1.3 per cent on average across just these seven days since 1960.
Sometimes it is more and sometime less. In fact, it is crucial to note that it only rises at all in around four out of five years (79 per cent). A return of that size in seven days is very attractive, given it would take months to earn 1.3 per cent from cash savings.
The other times (21 per cent) the Santa Rally has not occurred, and stock markets have fallen across these days. So, it is far a guarantee.
Why does the Santa Rally happen?
There is significant debate over why the Santa Rally happens so often. A mixture of practical reasons and human nature is believed to be at play.
One theory is that at the end of the year, analysts who forecast stock prices begin to revise predictions for the year ahead, and often raise their expected numbers. This feeds into investors’ decisions making.
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Next, there are tax obligations. Many investors sell shares as the year end approaches and then re-enter positions at the start of a new year, according to their own particular tax positions and the performance of their investments.
There can also be some “balancing of the books” towards the year end where fund managers lock in profitable positions, by selling, to make their annual performance look as good as possible – and then buy back in as the year ticks over.
Another factor is reduced trading volume as traders and fund managers take time off over the Christmas period. This means less money is moving around, and so prices can be pushed higher, or lower, more easily.
Expectations and psychology likely play a role too. The fact that the Santa Rally has consistently occurred over many decades means people expect it to happen, and therefore buy into the market: it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy to some degree.
On the psychological side, it is possible that the optimism that many people experience as a new year begins filters through into their financial decisions, so they are more inclined to buy than sell around this time.
One other thing that may play a role is January as a whole often being a strong month for the stock market. The S&P 500 has risen 73 per cent of the time in January since 1950 and the FTSE 100 has been up 64 per cent of the time.
Investors therefore try to take advantage of this by buying-in as soon as the month begins, or even slightly before.
How do investors make money from the Santa Rally?
It is relatively straightforward to make money from the Santa Rally – on the years it occurs.
As mentioned though, it is by no means certain to happen in any given year, and the stock market could also fall in this period.
Investing is a long-term endeavour and trying to time when to buy and sell perfectly is extremely difficult. The best way to approach the Santa Rally is to view it as a potentially nice bonus as part of a long-held, diversified investment portfolio.
That said, the simplest way to take advantage of the Santa Rally is to buy a stock market tracker such as an S&P 500 ETF or passive fund. Another option is a FTSE 100 ETF or passive tracker fund, given the rise often occurs in the UK stock market as well.
Either one will give you exposure to all the companies in the chosen index so the value of your investment will rise, or fall, in line with the market.
Both S&P 500 and FTSE 100 trackers are available via all the major UK investment platforms from providers including BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, Legal and General and many others.
When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Business
$2 trillion wiped off crypto markets! Bitcoin halves since October; investor company shares sink to multiyear lows – The Times of India
Cryptogiant Bitcoin has suffered sharp losses since the beginning of 2026, tumbling over 20%. The digital currency has given up almost half of its value since October’s record peak of over $124,000, sliding to $67,000, now worth less than it was at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term. Bitcoin is often pitched as “digital gold” as its returns are just like gold, offering no dividends or profits and price driven by what investors are willing to pay. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last trading 1.64% higher at $64,153.24 after a volatile session that saw prices swing between gains and losses, having earlier touched a low of $60,008.52. The global crypto market has lost $2 trillion in value since peaking at $4.379 trillion in early October, with $800 billion wiped out in the last month alone, Reuters reported. Bitcoin has declined 28% so far this year, while ether has lost nearly 38% over the same period.As the asset slid, shares of companies holding bitcoin and other digital assets also came under heavy pressure amid ongoing turbulence in the cryptocurrency market, fuelling concerns about stress across the sector. Publicly listed firms that piled into crypto last year, encouraged by US President Donald Trump’s supportive stance, are now grappling with intensifying market challenges.The decline comes as uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over AI company valuations weigh on risk assets, pushing bitcoin to its lowest level since November 2024.Strategy shares plunge to multi-year lowsMicroStrategy’s bitcoin-focused arm, Strategy, has seen shares tumble from $457 in July to $111.27 on Thursday, marking their lowest level since August 2024. The stock was last down more than 11%, according to Reuters.In December, Strategy cut its 2025 earnings forecast, citing weak bitcoin performance, and announced plans to create a reserve to support dividend payments. The company now expects full-year earnings between a $6.3 billion profit and a $5.5 billion loss, down from its earlier forecast of $24 billion.Other notable bitcoin buyers have also been hit. UK-based Smarter Web Company (SWC.L) fell nearly 18%, Nakamoto Inc (NAKA.O) lost almost 9%, and Japan’s Metaplanet (3350.T) dropped over 7%.Bitcoin wipes out gains since Trump’s electionBitcoin itself is down nearly 28% since the start of the year, with recent selling accelerating after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. Analysts cited by Reuters say that Warsh’s appointment could lead to a smaller Fed balance sheet, a negative for speculative assets like crypto.Bitcoin has erased all gains made since Trump’s election, when he pledged to overhaul policies toward digital assets. The cryptocurrency last traded at $67,651.“As Bitcoin continues its slide below the psychological barrier of $70,000, it’s clear the crypto market is now in full capitulation mode,” said Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau. “If previous cycles are anything to go by, this is no longer a short-term correction, but rather a transition… and these typically take months, not weeks,” Reuters cited the expert.Broader digital asset holdings also hitCompanies holding other tokens have been affected as well. Alt5 Sigma, which stocks the Trump family’s WLFI token, fell 8.4%. SharpLink Gaming, holding ether, dropped 8%, while Forward Industries, which holds solana, fell nearly 6%.Bitcoin fell to a low of $63,295.74 on Thursday, its weakest since October 2024, before rebounding slightly to $63,525, marking its largest one-day drop since November 2022. Approximately $1 billion in bitcoin positions were liquidated over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data.Fed concerns and investor outflowsTrump’s Fed pick, Kevin Warsh, has added to market fears. Analysts say investors worry that a smaller balance sheet will remove liquidity support for speculative assets.“The market fears a hawk with him,” Manuel Villegas Franceschi from Julius Baer told Reuters. “A smaller balance sheet is not going to provide any tailwinds for crypto.”Deutsche Bank analysts highlighted massive outflows from institutional ETFs as a key driver of the decline. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw over $3 billion withdrawn in January, following $2 billion and $7 billion outflows in December and November, respectively. “This steady selling in our view signals that traditional investors are losing interest, and overall pessimism about crypto is growing,” they said.Tech sector weakness piles pressure on crypto segmentThe slide in cryptocurrencies has been compounded by a broader downturn in tech stocks, particularly software companies linked to AI. Bitcoin and other tokens have historically tracked risk appetite in technology markets, and the current weakness has intensified losses.“Concerns are being raised around the crypto miners and whether we could be looking at forced liquidations if prices continue to fall, which could lead to a vicious cycle,” said Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar, as cited by Reuters. The analyst further added that crypto “should never be more than a very small portion of a portfolio, but its heavy retail ownership adds to overall market risk.”
Business
RBI MPC Meeting 2026 Live Updates: Gov Sanjay Malhotra To Announce Decision On Repo Rate Today
RBI MPC Meeting February 2026 Live Updates: All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, Sanjay Malhotra, today as he is going to announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) February policy meeting, which started on February 04. The outcome, due shortly, will set the tone for interest rates, liquidity conditions, and market sentiment at a time when growth is steady but inflation risks haven’t fully disappeared.
The six-member MPC, headed by RBI Governor, has deliberated on domestic inflation trends, global uncertainty, crude oil prices, and the evolving growth outlook.
The decision will be announced by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra amid a supportive domestic backdrop of a growth-oriented Union Budget, easing inflation pressures and a major easing of external uncertainty following the long-awaited India-US trade deal.
RBI Governor will begin his speech at 10:00 AM. The Central bank had cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25 per cent from 5.50 per cent with a ‘neutral stance’ in its December monetary policy.
This time, expectations are mixed. While retail inflation has shown signs of cooling, it remains close to the RBI’s comfort zone. At the same time, global central banks are turning more cautious on rate cuts, which could influence RBI’s tone and forward guidance.
Markets will closely track not just the rate decision but also the RBI’s commentary on inflation risks, growth projections, liquidity management, and its stance going forward.
Stay tuned with us to watch the live coverage of RBI MPC February Meeting 2026
President Donald Trump makes an announcement from the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, Nov. 6, 2025.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
President Donald Trump on Thursday is slated to announce the launch of TrumpRx — a direct-to-consumer website that is key to his administration’s efforts to lower prescription drug costs in the U.S.
In a post on X, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump and other administration officials will debut the website at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday.
She said millions of Americans would save money through TrumpRx, but it’s still unclear if all patients — particularly those with insurance coverage — will see more cost savings from using that site to buy their medicines. TrumpRx targets people who are willing to pay with cash and forgo insurance, which suggests that people without or with limited coverage may benefit the most.
The site is not expected to sell drugs directly to American patients, but will act as a central hub that points them to drugmakers that are offering discounts on certain products on their own direct-to-consumer sites. For example, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have offered their blockbuster obesity drugs at hefty discounts to cash-paying patients.
In recent months, both companies and at least 14 other drugmakers have negotiated agreements with the Trump administration to participate on the platform and voluntarily sell certain medicines at a discount to Medicaid patients. Those landmark deals are part of Trump’s broader “most favored nation” policy, which pushes to link U.S. drug prices to the lowest ones abroad.
It is the government’s latest effort to try to rein in U.S. prescription drug prices, which are two to three times higher on average than those in other developed nations — and up to 10 times more than in certain countries, according to the Rand Corp., a public policy think tank.
But TrumpRx “doesn’t seem like it is the only solution” to that issue for most Americans, said Juliette Cubanski, deputy director of the program on Medicare Policy at KFF, a health policy research organization. The cash-pay offerings could be better deals for patients without insurance, but it’s difficult to assess exactly how many people stand to benefit from TrumpRx, she added.
“If they’re able to get a drug covered by their insurance at a relatively affordable copay, then there’s not a great upside to using the TrumpRx website,” Cubanski said.
She said people with insurance coverage who buy through direct-to-consumer platforms may also not have their purchases count toward their benefits, which means it doesn’t help them meet their deductible or out-of-pocket maximum.
But Cubanski said there’s potential for TrumpRx to be helpful in expanding access to certain drugs at more affordable prices, particularly medicines not covered widely by insurance in the U.S., such as obesity drugs. Medicare will start covering weight loss treatments for the first time later this year as part of the deals Lilly and Novo struck with Trump, but many employers are still hesitant to cover those drugs.
Still, many of the other products expected to be listed on TrumpRx are already widely covered through insurance, and some are available as cheaper generics from competing drugmakers.
Questions about savings
Questions remain about how much savings people can expect if they buy their medicines at direct-to-consumer prices.
The announced price reductions for certain drugs are framed as steep cuts from their so-called retail list prices. For example, under Novo Nordisk’s agreement with the administration, its diabetes drug Ozempic will be priced at $350 per month on TrumpRx, which is less than half of its roughly $1,000 monthly list price.
But those list prices are often far higher than what private insurers and government programs ultimately pay for medicines after rebates, discounts and other concessions, according to researchers at Georgetown’s Medicare Policy Initiative. That suggests some payers may already be securing prices comparable to — or lower than — the newly announced discounts on medications under the Trump deals.
The Georgetown researchers cited one study that found that average discounts on brand-name drugs in Medicare Part D run around 40% of list prices. Meanwhile, discounts in Medicaid exceed 75%, according to a Congressional Budget Office study.
In the private sector, “we’ve got insurers and pharmacy benefit managers negotiating lower prices and designing an insurance benefit that enables people to benefit from those price negotiations,” said KFF’s Cubanski.
“My guess is that for most drugs, at least most brand-name medications, people are likely to get a better deal using their insurance rather than purchasing a drug through a direct-to-consumer website,” she said.
Drugs on TrumpRx
The administration has not provided a full list of drugs that will be listed on TrumpRx.
But available information from recent drug pricing deals indicates many widely used drugs will have discounted prices listed on the site:
- Ozempic injection for diabetes, made by Novo Nordisk: $350 per month, down from around $1,000
- Wegovy injection for obesity, made by Novo Nordisk: $350 per month, down from around $1,350
- Wegovy pill for obesity, made by Novo Nordisk: $150 per month for the starting doses
- Zepbound injection for obesity, made by Eli Lilly: $350 per month, down from $1,086
- Trulicity for diabetes, made by Eli Lilly: $389 per month, down from about $1,000
- Emgality for migraines, made by Eli Lilly: $299, down from around $764
- Repatha for lowering cholesterol, made by Amgen: $239, down from $573
- Reyataz for HIV, made by Bristol Myers Squibb: $217, down from $1,449
- Januvia for diabetes, made by Merck: $100, down from $330
- Epclusa for hepatitis C, made by Gilead: $2,425, down from $24,920
- Jentadueto for diabetes, made by Boehringer Ingelheim: $55, down from $525
- Xofluza for flu, made by Genentech: $50, down from $168
- Advair Diskus inhaler 500/50, made by GSK: $89, down from $265
- Mayzent for multiple sclerosis, made by Novartis: $1,137, down from $9,987
- Plavix, made by Sanofi: $16, down from $756
In an interview with CNBC at a conference in January, Bristol Myers Squibb CEO Chris Boerner said the company has multiple products on its existing direct-to-consumer platform, which first offered a cash-pay discount on its blood thinner Eliquis. That platform will link to TrumpRx, he said.
The company is going to examine ways to put additional products in its portfolio on its own platform, “where it makes sense,” Boerner added. He said Bristol Myers is “aligned with the administration” on the issue of the U.S. health care system being too complex, and said several middlemen can increase costs.
“What we like about these [direct-to-consumer models], where they make sense from a business standpoint, is you’re able to circumvent some of that,” Boerner said.
Meanwhile, in an exclusive interview with CNBC last week, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said the company was the first drugmaker to sell obesity treatments directly to patients, and that TrumpRx is “taking that and expanding it across the industry” to other medicines.
“We’re all for that,” Ricks said.
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$2 trillion wiped off crypto markets! Bitcoin halves since October; investor company shares sink to multiyear lows – The Times of India
Global GDP growth to be resilient at 3.3% in 2026; India above US: IMF
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