Sports
Who would win the 2026 World Cup if it kicked off today?
It’s mid-November, and qualification for the 2026 World Cup — to be hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada next summer — is in its final dramatic stages, with many automatic spots to be filled over the next week and several other nations vying for a spot in March’s intercontinental playoffs.
Before we get there, though — and before we get to the World Cup draw, which will be held in Washington D.C. on Dec. 5 — let’s ask ourselves a simple question: If the World Cup started today, who would win it?
ESPN FC’s writers and analysts were asked exactly that, so here’s how they feel about the state of the tournament right now and which teams look ready to walk away with the trophy.
Last World Cup win: 2010
FIFA rank: 1
Mark Ogden: The 2026 World Cup is going to be won by the team which can best deal with the conditions of a stifling hot summer in the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Spain tick more boxes than any other contender. They are the reigning European champions — their pedigree is unquestioned — but Luis de la Fuente’s side will win the World Cup because they can dominate possession and wear down their opponents.
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They have two world-class goalkeepers in Unai Simón and David Raya, a proven defense and a midfield including Martín Zubimendi, Pedri and Rodri. Further forward, on top of the consistency and reliability of Mikel Oyarzabal and Dani Olmo, the unpredictability and goal threat of Ferran Torres and Samu Aghehowa, there is winger Lamine Yamal, who is capable of leading Spain to glory in his first World Cup. The final is scheduled just six days after his 19th birthday; what a gift that would be.
Tom Hamilton: Spain have plenty of big tournament pedigree despite falling on penalties in the UEFA Nations League final to Portugal in June. Their last competitive defeat in 90 minutes was way back in 2023, when they lost to Scotland. Pedri missed much of the Euro 2024 knockout stages through injury, but he’s back and firing, which adds to the world-class depth — and beautiful blend of youth and experience — that De la Fuente can call upon.
Other teams like France, England and Argentina will push them close, plus we expect Brazil to click at some stage, especially with Carlo Ancelotti at the helm. As we saw in 2022, there’s likely to be a Morocco-esque surprise package, but right now, Spain are at the front of the pack. Key to their chances, though, is getting Rodri back up to full working order. Manchester City have been slow to reintroduce him, but if he gets back to his world-class best…
Sam Marsden: Time for me to make a wholly original pick! A lot of countries have a lot of talent, but right now, none, for me, are better than La Roja for two reasons.
Firstly, they have a clear playing style, which is not always easy to find in international football. Secondly, it feels like the roles within the team are so well defined and understood within the squad that they’re best-equipped to deal with losing players to injuries or suspensions. However, that resilience and flexibility could be tested if Ballon d’Or runner-up Yamal ends up missing games. He’s perhaps the one player in the squad whose quality, unpredictability and match-winning ability is difficult to replace.
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Yamal situation playground stuff’ from Barcelona and Spanish FA
Julien Lauren believes the Lamine Yamal situation could be “easily figured out” if both Barcelona and the Spanish FA “speak to each other” to sort it out.
Alex Kirkland: Am I biased, living as I do in Madrid? Perhaps. But here are the facts: Spain won Euro 2024, beating Germany, France and England along the way. Before that, they won the 2023 UEFA Nations League. Since then, they’ve reached the 2025 Nations League final — only to be beaten in a penalty shootout by Portugal. They’ve just matched the longest unbeaten run in their history, going 29 competitive games without defeat (counting that Portugal final as a draw). They’ve also got Pedri, Yamal, Nico Williams, and so many midfield options that Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz and Rodri are competing for just one spot.
Are there weaknesses? A few: Oyarzabal isn’t your dream center forward, but he’s got seven goals for Spain in 12 months. And if he’s not scoring, then Arsenal’s Mikel Merino — six goals in World Cup qualifying — will. De la Fuente isn’t entirely convincing, but you can’t argue with results, and his team play a really clear, cohesive, well-established style of play. If Pedri and Yamal stay fit: no other team comes close.
Cesar Hernandez: I think there’s no looking past the Euro 2024 champions. If we’re not counting the results of penalty shootouts (though it was a dramatic one with Portugal earlier this year), they’ve gone 24 consecutive games without a defeat in regulation or extra time. They’re also breezing through World Cup qualifying without a loss or goal allowed.
Granted, if the World Cup was starting this week, there’s also an assumption that the fitness management of Yamal would be in a much more ideal state as he’s shifted between Barcelona and national team duties, but who knows. Perhaps this back-and-forth continues through next year, which could lead to a different prediction for 2026.
Lizzy Becherano: At this point in time, Spain have to be considered the frontrunners. Winning Euro 2024 was a masterclass, one that also offered valuable experience to the younger players on the squad. The likes of Yamal and Fermín López are better for enduring the pressure and high stakes on the international stage, which is crucial to being successful at a World Cup. Certain countries boast individual stars that can drive victories, but Spain stand strong enough in each position to power through the most difficult challenges the upcoming World Cup will pose.
James Olley: Spain! They lifted the Euro 2024 trophy by becoming the first team ever to win all seven matches without requiring penalties. And the caliber of the teams they beat — Italy, Germany, France and England among them — suggested it was no fluke.
Williams and Yamal are two years older with more experience; Rodri should be relatively fresh assuming he recovers from his persistent injury problems, but if not, Zubimendi — who deputized for Rodri in the Euros final against England — has arguably taken his game to another level at Arsenal so far this season. Spain do need other players to kick on — Dean Huijsen switching his allegiance from Netherlands last year could be a major boost if he thrives at Real Madrid — but they still look the team to beat.
ENGLAND (3 votes)
Last World Cup win: 1966
FIFA rank: 4
Julien Laurens: The biggest factor here besides England’s talent is that they finally have a manager who is not afraid of making big calls and being honest about it. Thomas Tuchel can deal with big egos better than anyone else, having worked everywhere from Chelsea to Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich. He has extensive experience managing unhappy players and leaving behind anyone who isn’t on board with his philosophy and team spirit. One of the best tacticians in world football, Tuchel is the right guy to finally lead England to victory.
The Three Lions have one of the most talented squads of players, and bags of experience at the club level, for him to choose from — many of whom were part of England’s run to the finals at the last two European Championships. Striker Harry Kane is in the form of his life, there is depth in a lot of positions and a fresh generation of young stars pushing hard for a starting spot or a place on the plane next summer. (Seriously, take your pick from Elliot Anderson, Alex Scott, Adam Wharton, Morgan Rogers … need I say more?)
0:59
Marcotti questions Tuchel’s comments about Bellingham, Kane and Foden
Gab Marcotti believes Thomas Tuchel should “never say” Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and Phil Foden can’t play together.
Cole Palmer will come back from injury fresh and rested, ready to have a big impact whether as a starter or as a sub. And leaders like Kane, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice or Marc Guéhi will shine.
Tuchel also explained the obvious this week: Kane, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden can’t start together. It didn’t work in the past, and it won’t work at the World Cup this summer. The team would not be balanced enough and in this structure, it is not possible to have them three together from the start. This England team will be built differently, on and off the pitch and that will be the reason for their success.
Bill Connelly: They currently have the best combination of talent, depth, coaching, center-forward play and good health. (Spain would be my answer, if not for those last two parts.) Tuchel’s combination of caution and individualized tactics should work as well as anything in a long combination with so many knockout rounds, and while he probably doesn’t have the full back situation figured out as well as he would prefer, no one does.
This is a battle-tested squad with a bench loaded with players would start for all but the most elite countries in the world. They’re in great shape, and if the overall health of the squad hasn’t fallen apart seven months from now, they’ll have everything they need.
Gab Marcotti: I’m applying the process of elimination here. Right now, Yamal and Pedri are injured (sorry, Spain); Brazil have a lot to prove under Carlo Ancelotti; Argentina look good, but we haven’t had repeat champions in my lifetime.
Right now, logic says England or France, except after 12 years of Deschamps, I can’t help but feel things might be getting a little stale for Les Bleus. So whatever, I’ll bite.
Why not England? Why not Tuchel to make history as the first foreign manager to lift a World Cup? Why not an end to 60 years of hurt and humiliation? Darn, can’t believe I said that. But you did ask for “right now,” so …
FRANCE (2 votes)
Last World Cup win: 2018
FIFA rank: 3
Beth Lindop: While I think Spain are possibly the most balanced team in world football, I’m opting for Les Bleus. They are no strangers to World Cup success, having followed up their 2018 triumph by reaching the final in 2022.
In terms of attacking firepower, I think they’re pretty unrivaled at the international level. Kylian Mbappé has been in fine scoring form for Real Madrid this season, while Ousmane Dembélé is now officially the best player in the world thanks to his Ballon d’Or win, though his campaign so far has been disrupted by injury. With the likes of Hugo Ekitike, Bradley Barcola and Désiré Doué in the squad, Didier Deschamps has an embarrassment of attacking riches at his disposal. And, at the other end of the pitch, Dayot Upamecano, Theo Hernández and William Saliba are also in great form. The squad is really strong in all departments.
2:04
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Ryan O’Hanlon: They’ve made the last two World Cup finals, and the last time they lost a knockout game at a World Cup, Barack Obama was still president of the United States and England was still part of the European Union. Their potential front three of Mbappé, Dembele, and Michael Olise is better than anything any club team can offer. Their starting center backs are currently starting for club teams that have allowed 11 combined goals through their first 21 matches of domestic play.
This will be the most talented team at the tournament next summer — and it won’t be close.
ARGENTINA (1 vote)
Last World Cup win: 2022
FIFA rank: 2
2:24
Fans surround Argentina bus to watch Messi train
Hundreds of fans gather as Lionel Messi and the Argentina team train in Spain ahead of the Angola friendly.
Rob Dawson: Managing the climate in the U.S., Mexico and Canada will be key for whoever lifts the trophy and the European nations are going to struggle. Argentina got over the line in Qatar and the core of that squad is still here. Lionel Messi — if he plays — is unlikely to have the same impact as last time, but they’ve got Emiliano Martínez, Cristian Romero, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández and Julián Álvarez around him. It’s a formidable spine to the team.
World Cups are won by sides that can grow into a tournament, and Argentina have got invaluable inexperience from four years ago. They’re the ones to beat.
Sports
Raphinha shines as Barça get thrilling win over Madrid in Supercopa final
Raphinha scored twice as Barcelona beat Real Madrid 3-2 in an enthralling Clásico on Sunday to retain the Supercopa de España in Saudi Arabia.
The Brazilian struck the winner in the 73rd minute as Barça celebrated a third successive final victory over Madrid under Hansi Flick, following last season’s Supercopa and Copa del Rey successes.
Heading into the final 20 minutes, the tie had been delicately poised following a wild first half, which yielded three stoppage-time goals after Raphinha’s opener in the 36th minute.
First, Vinícius Júnior leveled, then Robert Lewandowski nudged Barça back ahead and there was still time for Gonzalo García to restore parity before halftime.
Madrid brought on Kylian Mbappé, back from a knee injury, in the second half, but it was Raphinha who proved the hero as Madrid’s Álvaro Carreras and Raúl Asencio spurned great late chances to take the game to a penalty shootout after Frenkie de Jong had been sent off. — Sam Marsden
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Barça win first trophy of the season, avenges October’s Clásico loss
Barça can now look back on the LaLiga defeat to Madrid in October as a blip. After winning all four Clásicos last year, there was the slight suggestion earlier this season that the tide could be turning after Xabi Alonso’s side earned a 2-1 victory at the Santiago Bernabéu.
For that reason, Barça’s players were desperate to reassert their dominance over their biggest rivals and they will feel they did that in Jeddah on Sunday.
For large parts of the game, they completely controlled proceedings, accumulating almost 70% of the possession by full time. They deserved their lead when Raphinha netted, with Madrid’s two equalizers feeling like sucker punches.
That’s not to say Madrid didn’t also create chances on the counter. Both teams ended with eight shots on target, but the xG totals paint a better picture of who created the best openings, with Barça’s 2.6 considerably more than Madrid’s 1.38.
That is now four trophies Barça have won under Flick. The German coach spoke this past week about the Supercopa last season, providing the platform for them to go on and win LaLiga and the Copa del Rey. With a four-point lead at the top of the league, more silverware looks likely, although it’s the UEFA Champions League that this set of players is so desperate to get their hands on. — Marsden
Vini Jr steps up, ends 16-game goalless streak
With Mbappé fit enough for only a place on the substitute’s bench — eventually being introduced in the 76th minute — there was more pressure than ever on another of Madrid’s star names to deliver: Vinícius Júnior.
But Vinícius hadn’t scored in 16 games, an unprecedented dry spell. It’s not just that he hadn’t been scoring; his lack of impact has seen him whistled by the Bernabéu crowd. His performance in the semifinal in Jeddah was notable only for his touchline war of words with Atlético Madrid coach Diego Simeone.
But when Vinícius picked up the ball late in the first half, in the second minute of added time, none of that mattered. Wide on the left, one-on-one with Jules Koundé, this was suddenly Vinícius at his absolute, unplayable best: teasing Koundé with the ball before smoothly nutmegging the right back, dancing into the box and finishing low past Joan García. His celebration, racing across to kick the corner flag, was an explosive release of emotion.
Vinícius badly needed this goal, and so did Real Madrid. As the second half began, he looked like a different player than the one we’ve seen in recent weeks, freed of so much tension and baggage. Twice, he went close to scoring again, Koundé unable to cope. Only late in the second half, perhaps tiring, the Brazil international was less of a threat, and he was replaced by Arda Güler in the closing minutes.
Vinícius’ goal didn’t end up mattering. Madrid lost the game. But if there’s one positive they can take home from this final, and this tournament, it’s that one of the world’s best players — on his day — has refound the form that made him a Ballon d’Or contender. Now we wait to see if it was just a mirage or something more concrete. — Alex Kirkland
Madrid’s safety-first setup almost works
Madrid started this game with what looked like a deeply conservative, defensively minded system. Often, when Barcelona had the ball and were pushing forward, Madrid were dropping into a deep block with a back five, as Federico Valverde dropped into right back, and Aurélien Tchouaméni joined Dean Huijsen and Raúl Asencio in the middle, with Carreras on the left.
Logically, Barça dominated. In the first half, they had 76% possession to Madrid’s 24%. There were legitimate reasons for Madrid’s approach: They were without key defenders such as Éder Militão and Antonio Rüdiger, and with the team having struggled to really convince for months now, they could be forgiven for taking the risk-averse, cautious approach.
Madrid suffered some heavy defeats to Barça last season, including a 5-2 loss in the Supercopa final. They could not afford a similar scoreline this time, especially given the precarious situation coach Alonso finds himself in, where a humiliation in this final might have cost him his job.
And in that sense, the night was a success: Madrid avoided that kind of defeat. There were five goals, but divided between the teams in a way that allowed them to emerge with some credit. They competed, they fought, and they lost by a single goal.
But it wasn’t the “rock ‘n’ roll” style we were promised from an Alonso team, and it wasn’t an approach Madrid can expect to replicate frequently without facing criticism for a playing style unbefitting a big team.
On Sunday night, it worked to a point. Madrid were in with a chance right until the very end, when they spurned two great opportunities to equalize in added time. But it isn’t a template for the future. — Kirkland
Raphinha continues his scoring streak
Raphinha absolutely thrives against Madrid. With the benefit of hindsight, it is perhaps no coincidence that Barça lost their first Clásico under Flick in October when the former Leeds United forward was sidelined with an injury.
Madrid had no such luck here. Raphinha returned at the end of November and has been slowly regaining his top form since. He sent a warning to Madrid with two goals in the semifinal win against Athletic Club and should have opened the scoring in the first half in Jeddah, shooting wide after receiving a fine pass from Lamine Yamal.
Given his tireless running, it didn’t take long for his next chance to arrive, and he took it brilliantly to open the scoring in the latter stages of the first half. The winner was slightly more fortuitous, taking a deflection to deceive Thibaut Courtois, but if anyone had earned it, it was Raphinha.
His recent record against Madrid is phenomenal. That is now seven goals and three assists in his past six appearances against them. Three of those matches have been finals: two now in the Supercopa and one in the Copa del Rey.
Meanwhile, he has 11 goals in 19 games this season. If this latest trophy is to prove a springboard for more Barça success this season, you would imagine they will need to keep Raphinha fit. It’s not just goals and assists he contributes, but the energy and intensity he supplies in heaps in defense and attack. — Marsden
Barca’s defensive and clean sheet mirage ends
Barcelona’s run of five straight clean sheets in all competitions, their longest such streak since 2020, always felt a little deceptive and so it proved against Madrid.
Vinícius deserves credit for his brilliant equalizer, but that is unlikely to alter how the first-team analysts dissect the defending beforehand. Questions need to be asked about Kounde’s role in the goal, as the Brazilian player skipped past him. The Frenchman has been below par throughout this season, although he could also have benefited from some help from Pau Cubarsí this time. The young center back was a spectator as Vinícius came on to his right foot.
The defending for the second goal was arguably worse. Cubarsí again didn’t deal with a corner well, while Pedri, who had just supplied a fine assist for the Lewandowski goal, was also too loose on García. Barça complained about stoppage time overrunning, but they would have done well to take some advice from Roy Keane and, rather than worrying about that, do their jobs.
So, there is still work for Flick to do at the back. Whether the arrival of the attacking full back João Cancelo will help remains to be seen, but for the neutral, it means much more fun, such as in the recent run of Clásicos and last season’s Champions League semifinal loss to Internazionale, should always be just around the corner. — Marsden
What does it all mean for Xabi Alonso?
So, where does this leave Real Madrid’s coach?
Alonso has faced several match points now, and he’s saved them all. Before Christmas, when the pressure on him was near-unbearable following losses to Celta Vigo and Manchester City, Madrid won three games in a week to ensure Alonso stayed in the job over the Christmas break. On their return to action in 2026, Madrid beat Real Betis 5-1 before a narrow, 2-1 win over Atlético Madrid in Thursday’s Supercopa semifinal. And now this: a 3-2 final defeat to a good team.
In a way, it all leaves Alonso back where he started. The doubts about him among senior figures at the club remain, because nothing that’s happened since has been significant enough to shift them. But there also hasn’t been anything bad enough to force a change. Madrid have been winning, without playing especially well — or here, they lost, while doing OK.
It means that barring something unexpected — always a possibility at Real Madrid — the most likely scenario is that Alonso stays in his job, and stays under pressure. For that to change, Madrid need to not just win games, but do so playing with a persuasive shape and style that feels like the team’s future, rather than a reaction to circumstances.
“We have to move on as soon as possible,” Alonso said afterward. “It’s the least important of the competitions we play. We have to look forward.” — Kirkland
Sports
ESPN star rips Bears coach after profane outburst following playoff win
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ESPN star Dick Vitale wasn’t pleased with Ben Johnson on Sunday after the Chicago Bears coach’s explicit reaction to a playoff win over the Green Bay Packers went viral.
The cameras were on and the mic was hot when Johnson rallied his team in the locker room following a 31-27 comeback victory. He was heard saying, “F— the Packers! F— them! F—ing hate those guys.”
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Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson stands on the sidelines against the Green Bay Packers during the second half of an NFC Wild Card Round game at Soldier Field on Jan. 10, 2026. (David Banks/Imagn Images)
Vitale, the legendary college basketball commentator, appeared to be appalled.
“Total CLASSLESS attitude in winning by BEN JOHNSON coach of the @ChicagoBears in the fab comeback to beat the @packers. Main theme should have been the gutty comeback not the childish F__ Packers comments,” Vitale wrote on X.
The rivalry between the Bears and Packers is certainly revved up. Johnson threw gasoline on the fire when he first joined the Bears. He was asked at the time why he chose Chicago. He said he “kinda enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year.”

Dick Vitale is on hand at Coleman Coliseum for the college basketball game between Alabama and Kentucky on Feb. 22, 2025. (Gary Cosby Jr./Tuscaloosa News)
49ERS’ GEORGE KITTLE CARTED OFF FIELD WITH ACHILLES INJURY DURING WILD CARD ROUND VS EAGLES
The message sparked a few icy handshakes during the season, including one after the playoff game. Chicago went 1-1 against Green Bay in the regular season and defeated them when it counted the most.
The first-year head coach praised his players for their gritty performance, coming off two losses and going into halftime down 21-3. Johnson said his team was “built for pressure.”

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson stands on the sidelines against the Green Bay Packers during the first half of an NFC Wild Card Round game at Soldier Field on Jan. 10, 2026. (David Banks/Imagn Images)
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The Bears will face the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round.
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Sports
The NFC playoff bracket is set: Reasons for optimism for the Seahawks, 49ers, Bears and Rams
The wild-card round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is heading toward completion, and the divisional-round matchups are taking shape. The NFC pairings are set, with the San Francisco 49ers set to play the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams heading to play the Chicago Bears.
To look ahead at these games, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Seahawks, who didn’t play this week, Brady Henderson provided some info from what they did during the bye week.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championship games, and we also provided projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and opening lines.
Let’s start with the 49ers against the Seahawks.
Jump to a matchup:
SF-SEA | LAR-CHI
NFC
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When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI projection: SEA, 61.3%
What we learned about the 49ers in the wild-card round: Common sense would suggest that a team playing without so many of its biggest stars — edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and, as of Sunday, tight end George Kittle — would eventually run out of the magic that’s defined their unlikely postseason run. Sunday was not that day. Despite another devastating injury to a team leader, these Niners continue to defy conventional wisdom and carve a path few could have foreseen before the season. Sunday’s lesson was a familiar one — as long as these Niners get to keep playing, it’s unwise to count them out. — Nick Wagoner
What the Seahawks did during their bye week: It was hardly an off week for the Seahawks. They practiced outside in the elements on Wednesday and Thursday — in a light rain Wednesday and with temperatures in the low 40s and the wind blowing both days — as Mike Macdonald tried to get his team accustomed to playing in the kind of weather the Seahawks might get in the playoffs. “We’re not treating it like a regular-season bye week where guys are flying to Mexico and Hawaii and enjoying their time,” Pro Bowl defensive lineman Leonard Williams said. “I think we really celebrated that win against the Niners, but immediately that next day you could tell guys were like, ‘Hey, the job is not done. We’ve got a lot of work to do.'” — Brady Henderson
Why the 49ers will win: Because Sam Darnold is not the same player he was at the beginning of the season. Ten weeks into the season, the Seahawks’ quarterback led the NFL in QBR (77.8). But in Week 11, the Seahawks lost to the Rams and from that moment forward, Darnold ranked 27th (36.9) in the same metric! The 49ers will not fall into the trap other teams have against Seattle: matching the Seahawks’ big personnel with base defensive personnel. San Francisco is a nickel-heavy team, which will either invite Seattle to run or force Darnold into less favorable passing situations. And for all that went wrong in the 49ers’ season-finale loss in Week 18, they still held the Seahawks to just 13 points.
Giving Kyle Shanahan two weeks to study film after that loss might be enough for him to find some new ways to beat that seemingly-impenetrable Mike Macdonald defense. And the 49ers have a good passing game; they’ve averaged 0.17 EPA per dropback, which ranked sixth best among all teams and fifth best among those that made the playoffs. With All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Williams expected to play (he missed the Week 18 matchup), the 49ers definitely have a chance here.
Why the Seahawks will win: They proved it Week 18 in the battle for the No. 1 seed. Seattle shut down the 49ers offense with their ferocious defense, holding San Francisco to only three points. It was hardly an aberration: Seattle has the best defense in football and the stats are undeniable. No. 1 in EPA allowed per play. No. 1 in opponent’s success rate. And one of my favorites: Minus-30 first downs over expectation allowed on opponent runs according to NFL Next Gen Stats, doubling up the next-best team in the regular season (the Houston Texans at minus-15).
But there’s another reason for Seahawks optimism. While their passing game has not been the same in the second half of the season, they can offset that with a more reliable rushing attack against a 49ers’ defense that is hurting at linebacker. Both Fred Warner and Tatum Bethune are out, and Dee Winters missed San Francisco’s wild card game, too. — Walder
Matchup background: These teams met two weeks ago in the regular-season finale at Levi’s Stadium, with the Seahawks beating the 49ers 13-3 to clinch the NFC West and homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The 49ers defeated Seattle 17-13 in the season opener at Lumen Field, with San Francisco forcing a late turnover to hold on. These franchises have split two previous playoff matchups, with Seattle winning the 2013 NFC Championship Game and the 49ers knocking out the Seahawks in the 2022 wild-card round. — ESPN
Stat to know: Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers this season (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost). This is the first time dating to 1978 that a player on a No. 1-seeded team has led the league in turnovers. — ESPN Research
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Purdy finds McCaffrey for TD to put 49ers ahead late
Brock Purdy throws a touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey to give the 49ers the lead late in the fourth quarter vs. the Eagles.
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When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI projection: LAR, 61.2%
What we learned about the Rams in the wild-card round: The world once again saw why the Rams feel so confident in those got-to-have-it situations due to having Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Stafford led the Rams on two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against the Panthers, including one with 38 seconds left. “That’s why we’re advancing, because of his leadership,” Rams head coach Sean McVay said. Stafford now has four career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game. According to ESPN Research, the only quarterback with more since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021 is Patrick Mahomes (6). — Sarah Barshop
What we learned about the Bears in the wild-card round: The Bears continue to be one of the best second-half teams in the NFL. After trailing Green Bay 21-3 at halftime, Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to come from behind and beat the Packers. But as they’ve been saying all season, the Bears need to start faster on both sides of the ball. Chicago’s defense pressured Packers QB Jordan Love on only 18% of his dropbacks in the first half (versus 32% in the second half, including four times on the Packers’ last drive). Caleb Williams and the offense struggled until the Bears quarterback turned his deep-ball passing around in the second half, when he was 7-of-13 for 166 yards and a touchdown on passes of 15 or more air yards. In the first half, Williams was 2-for-5 for 40 yards and interception on such throws. — Courtney Cronin
Why the Rams will win: The Rams are arguably the best team in football — and the Bears are not. Don’t get me wrong, Chicago deserves plenty of credit for its remarkable season, but the numbers clearly favor Los Angeles. This is the team ranked second in EPA per play on offense, has the MVP favorite at quarterback, the best wide receiver in football and a solid offensive line that will give Stafford all day to throw against the Bears’ lacking pass rush.
The Bears have a strong running game, and we’ve certainly seen Williams have incredible moments. But in terms of EPA per play, the Rams have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Plus, we could argue that we didn’t see the true version of the Rams in the wild-card round after Stafford suffered an early finger injury (but still managed to orchestrate a comeback, anyway). And if wide receiver Puka Nacua had not had an incredibly uncharacteristic drop on what surely would have been a touchdown at the end of the first half, the Rams might have beaten the Panthers more comfortably.
And while the Rams’ defense is not perfect, each of the major players on defensive line — Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Poona Ford — can create mayhem for their opponents.
1:04
Recapping the Bears’ comeback win over Packers
Kimberely A. Martin recaps the performance of Caleb Williams and the Bears against the Packers.
Why the Bears will win: They can never be ruled out. Chicago added to its season of improbable victories with an incredible come-from-behind win over the Packers in which the Bears entered the fourth quarter down 15 points and exited it up four. In between, we witnessed the Bears at their absolute best. Williams made the throw of a lifetime on fourth-and-8 to keep their hopes alive and coach Ben Johnson used an imbalanced line to sell the screen of a screen-and-go, fooling the Packers’ secondary and freeing DJ Moore for a touchdown.
But what makes Chicago so threatening is that it won despite not even being the best version of itself. In the regular season, the Bears averaged a 48% success rate on designed runs (third best), but that number dropped to 28% against Green Bay. And even in victory, Williams had a 28% off-target rate and a minus-14% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) — both solidly worse than his regular-season marks. They’ll be home underdogs against the Rams and Los Angeles’ offense should have a serious advantage over the Bears’ defense. But the Bears can generate turnovers, forcing a league-high 33 in the regular season. They’ll need more of that turnover variance to go their way against the Rams, but it’s doable. — Walder
Matchup background: The Rams and Bears did not play this season, with their most recent matchup coming in Week 4 of the 2024 season. Chicago prevailed 24-18 at Soldier Field, breaking a three-game losing streak to Los Angeles. This is only the third postseason matchup between these franchises and the first in 40 years. The Bears defeated the Rams 24-0 in the 1985 NFC Championship Game en route to the Super Bowl XX title, which is Chicago’s most recent NFL championship. — ESPN
Stat to know: After being sacked two or more times in 15 games last season, Williams has been sacked one or zero times in 11 games in 2025 (including Saturday’s playoff victory). The Rams had 47 sacks in the regular season and added two more in their wild-card win over Carolina. — ESPN Research
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