It’s mid-November, and qualification for the 2026 World Cup — to be hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada next summer — is in its final dramatic stages, with many automatic spots to be filled over the next week and several other nations vying for a spot in March’s intercontinental playoffs.

Before we get there, though — and before we get to the World Cup draw, which will be held in Washington D.C. on Dec. 5 — let’s ask ourselves a simple question: If the World Cup started today, who would win it?

ESPN FC’s writers and analysts were asked exactly that, so here’s how they feel about the state of the tournament right now and which teams look ready to walk away with the trophy.

Last World Cup win: 2010
FIFA rank: 1

Mark Ogden: The 2026 World Cup is going to be won by the team which can best deal with the conditions of a stifling hot summer in the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Spain tick more boxes than any other contender. They are the reigning European champions — their pedigree is unquestioned — but Luis de la Fuente’s side will win the World Cup because they can dominate possession and wear down their opponents.

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They have two world-class goalkeepers in Unai Simón and David Raya, a proven defense and a midfield including Martín Zubimendi, Pedri and Rodri. Further forward, on top of the consistency and reliability of Mikel Oyarzabal and Dani Olmo, the unpredictability and goal threat of Ferran Torres and Samu Aghehowa, there is winger Lamine Yamal, who is capable of leading Spain to glory in his first World Cup. The final is scheduled just six days after his 19th birthday; what a gift that would be.

Tom Hamilton: Spain have plenty of big tournament pedigree despite falling on penalties in the UEFA Nations League final to Portugal in June. Their last competitive defeat in 90 minutes was way back in 2023, when they lost to Scotland. Pedri missed much of the Euro 2024 knockout stages through injury, but he’s back and firing, which adds to the world-class depth — and beautiful blend of youth and experience — that De la Fuente can call upon.

Other teams like France, England and Argentina will push them close, plus we expect Brazil to click at some stage, especially with Carlo Ancelotti at the helm. As we saw in 2022, there’s likely to be a Morocco-esque surprise package, but right now, Spain are at the front of the pack. Key to their chances, though, is getting Rodri back up to full working order. Manchester City have been slow to reintroduce him, but if he gets back to his world-class best…

Sam Marsden: Time for me to make a wholly original pick! A lot of countries have a lot of talent, but right now, none, for me, are better than La Roja for two reasons.

Firstly, they have a clear playing style, which is not always easy to find in international football. Secondly, it feels like the roles within the team are so well defined and understood within the squad that they’re best-equipped to deal with losing players to injuries or suspensions. However, that resilience and flexibility could be tested if Ballon d’Or runner-up Yamal ends up missing games. He’s perhaps the one player in the squad whose quality, unpredictability and match-winning ability is difficult to replace.

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Yamal situation playground stuff’ from Barcelona and Spanish FA

Julien Lauren believes the Lamine Yamal situation could be “easily figured out” if both Barcelona and the Spanish FA “speak to each other” to sort it out.

Alex Kirkland: Am I biased, living as I do in Madrid? Perhaps. But here are the facts: Spain won Euro 2024, beating Germany, France and England along the way. Before that, they won the 2023 UEFA Nations League. Since then, they’ve reached the 2025 Nations League final — only to be beaten in a penalty shootout by Portugal. They’ve just matched the longest unbeaten run in their history, going 29 competitive games without defeat (counting that Portugal final as a draw). They’ve also got Pedri, Yamal, Nico Williams, and so many midfield options that Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz and Rodri are competing for just one spot.

Are there weaknesses? A few: Oyarzabal isn’t your dream center forward, but he’s got seven goals for Spain in 12 months. And if he’s not scoring, then Arsenal’s Mikel Merino — six goals in World Cup qualifying — will. De la Fuente isn’t entirely convincing, but you can’t argue with results, and his team play a really clear, cohesive, well-established style of play. If Pedri and Yamal stay fit: no other team comes close.

Cesar Hernandez: I think there’s no looking past the Euro 2024 champions. If we’re not counting the results of penalty shootouts (though it was a dramatic one with Portugal earlier this year), they’ve gone 24 consecutive games without a defeat in regulation or extra time. They’re also breezing through World Cup qualifying without a loss or goal allowed.

Granted, if the World Cup was starting this week, there’s also an assumption that the fitness management of Yamal would be in a much more ideal state as he’s shifted between Barcelona and national team duties, but who knows. Perhaps this back-and-forth continues through next year, which could lead to a different prediction for 2026.

Lizzy Becherano: At this point in time, Spain have to be considered the frontrunners. Winning Euro 2024 was a masterclass, one that also offered valuable experience to the younger players on the squad. The likes of Yamal and Fermín López are better for enduring the pressure and high stakes on the international stage, which is crucial to being successful at a World Cup. Certain countries boast individual stars that can drive victories, but Spain stand strong enough in each position to power through the most difficult challenges the upcoming World Cup will pose.

James Olley: Spain! They lifted the Euro 2024 trophy by becoming the first team ever to win all seven matches without requiring penalties. And the caliber of the teams they beat — Italy, Germany, France and England among them — suggested it was no fluke.

Williams and Yamal are two years older with more experience; Rodri should be relatively fresh assuming he recovers from his persistent injury problems, but if not, Zubimendi — who deputized for Rodri in the Euros final against England — has arguably taken his game to another level at Arsenal so far this season. Spain do need other players to kick on — Dean Huijsen switching his allegiance from Netherlands last year could be a major boost if he thrives at Real Madrid — but they still look the team to beat.

ENGLAND (3 votes)

Last World Cup win: 1966
FIFA rank: 4

Julien Laurens: The biggest factor here besides England’s talent is that they finally have a manager who is not afraid of making big calls and being honest about it. Thomas Tuchel can deal with big egos better than anyone else, having worked everywhere from Chelsea to Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich. He has extensive experience managing unhappy players and leaving behind anyone who isn’t on board with his philosophy and team spirit. One of the best tacticians in world football, Tuchel is the right guy to finally lead England to victory.

The Three Lions have one of the most talented squads of players, and bags of experience at the club level, for him to choose from — many of whom were part of England’s run to the finals at the last two European Championships. Striker Harry Kane is in the form of his life, there is depth in a lot of positions and a fresh generation of young stars pushing hard for a starting spot or a place on the plane next summer. (Seriously, take your pick from Elliot Anderson, Alex Scott, Adam Wharton, Morgan Rogers … need I say more?)

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Marcotti questions Tuchel’s comments about Bellingham, Kane and Foden

Gab Marcotti believes Thomas Tuchel should “never say” Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and Phil Foden can’t play together.

Cole Palmer will come back from injury fresh and rested, ready to have a big impact whether as a starter or as a sub. And leaders like Kane, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice or Marc Guéhi will shine.

Tuchel also explained the obvious this week: Kane, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden can’t start together. It didn’t work in the past, and it won’t work at the World Cup this summer. The team would not be balanced enough and in this structure, it is not possible to have them three together from the start. This England team will be built differently, on and off the pitch and that will be the reason for their success.

Bill Connelly: They currently have the best combination of talent, depth, coaching, center-forward play and good health. (Spain would be my answer, if not for those last two parts.) Tuchel’s combination of caution and individualized tactics should work as well as anything in a long combination with so many knockout rounds, and while he probably doesn’t have the full back situation figured out as well as he would prefer, no one does.

This is a battle-tested squad with a bench loaded with players would start for all but the most elite countries in the world. They’re in great shape, and if the overall health of the squad hasn’t fallen apart seven months from now, they’ll have everything they need.

Gab Marcotti: I’m applying the process of elimination here. Right now, Yamal and Pedri are injured (sorry, Spain); Brazil have a lot to prove under Carlo Ancelotti; Argentina look good, but we haven’t had repeat champions in my lifetime.

Right now, logic says England or France, except after 12 years of Deschamps, I can’t help but feel things might be getting a little stale for Les Bleus. So whatever, I’ll bite.

Why not England? Why not Tuchel to make history as the first foreign manager to lift a World Cup? Why not an end to 60 years of hurt and humiliation? Darn, can’t believe I said that. But you did ask for “right now,” so …

FRANCE (2 votes)

Last World Cup win: 2018
FIFA rank: 3

Beth Lindop: While I think Spain are possibly the most balanced team in world football, I’m opting for Les Bleus. They are no strangers to World Cup success, having followed up their 2018 triumph by reaching the final in 2022.

In terms of attacking firepower, I think they’re pretty unrivaled at the international level. Kylian Mbappé has been in fine scoring form for Real Madrid this season, while Ousmane Dembélé is now officially the best player in the world thanks to his Ballon d’Or win, though his campaign so far has been disrupted by injury. With the likes of Hugo Ekitike, Bradley Barcola and Désiré Doué in the squad, Didier Deschamps has an embarrassment of attacking riches at his disposal. And, at the other end of the pitch, Dayot Upamecano, Theo Hernández and William Saliba are also in great form. The squad is really strong in all departments.

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Julien Laurens explains why the feud between Kylian Mbappe and French rapper Orelsan might be down to a misunderstanding.

Ryan O’Hanlon: They’ve made the last two World Cup finals, and the last time they lost a knockout game at a World Cup, Barack Obama was still president of the United States and England was still part of the European Union. Their potential front three of Mbappé, Dembele, and Michael Olise is better than anything any club team can offer. Their starting center backs are currently starting for club teams that have allowed 11 combined goals through their first 21 matches of domestic play.

This will be the most talented team at the tournament next summer — and it won’t be close.

ARGENTINA (1 vote)

Last World Cup win: 2022
FIFA rank: 2

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Fans surround Argentina bus to watch Messi train

Hundreds of fans gather as Lionel Messi and the Argentina team train in Spain ahead of the Angola friendly.

Rob Dawson: Managing the climate in the U.S., Mexico and Canada will be key for whoever lifts the trophy and the European nations are going to struggle. Argentina got over the line in Qatar and the core of that squad is still here. Lionel Messi — if he plays — is unlikely to have the same impact as last time, but they’ve got Emiliano Martínez, Cristian Romero, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández and Julián Álvarez around him. It’s a formidable spine to the team.

World Cups are won by sides that can grow into a tournament, and Argentina have got invaluable inexperience from four years ago. They’re the ones to beat.