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Why missing Champions League can boost Premier League teams: What data shows

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Why missing Champions League can boost Premier League teams: What data shows


Everyone mocked him at the time, but Arsene Wenger had a point.

In 2012, after Arsenal lost to Sunderland in the FA Cup and while they were down 4-0 against AC Milan before the second leg of their round of 16 tie in the Champions League, Wenger solidified the focus for the rest of his team’s season. He said: “The first trophy is to finish in the top four.”

While this lack of ambition seemed to some like it was a cause of Arsenal’s then-seven-year trophy drought, that wasn’t quite true. The construction costs of Arsenal’s new stadium had hamstrung their ability to spend as much as Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea — Wenger was merely citing the economic reality in which he was living.

To have a shot at competing with those teams in the future, the Gunners needed to secure the extra millions of dollars in revenue generated from qualifying for the UEFA Champions League by finishing in the top four of the Premier League.

While you don’t get any silverware for finishing in the top four, finishing there was much more likely to lead to a Premier League or a Champions League title than winning the FA Cup or the League Cup. And if a top-four finish is more important than two of the competitions they hand out trophies for, well it kind of is its own trophy.

It’s not like we don’t treat it as such, either — the top-four race is one of the three ways we give texture to each season along with the title race and the relegation battle. (I don’t think it was done on purpose, but I applaud our collective hive mind for not settling on “race” to describe a competition between teams that are trying to avoid, rather than achieve, something.)

Even with the added guarantee of a fifth Champions League spot for the Premier League, this season hasn’t been any different. From here on, Manchester United, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea will mainly be judged by whether or not they secure one of the five spots. As Liverpool manager Arne Slot put it back in February: “If we don’t have Champions League football, it’s definitely not been an acceptable season. … That does have an enormous impact on the way this club is run.”

The impact on revenue is massive, but in the world of fixture bloat and player burnout, might there be a hidden benefit to missing out on the world’s most prestigious competition for a season? After all, Man United and Aston Villa, two of the teams in the current top four, aren’t playing in the Champions League this year.

Maybe missing out on the Champions League isn’t such a terrible thing for Premier League teams after all?


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The economic impact of missing out on the Champions League

Let’s take Liverpool as an example.

After nearly winning the quadruple in the 2021-22 season, everything fell apart the following year. Jurgen Klopp’s team finished fifth — the first, and only time, in his eight full seasons at the club when they didn’t qualify for the Champions League.

The impact here is pretty straightforward. Per data from Kieron O’Connor’s excellent Swiss Ramble, here’s the club’s broadcast revenue from European competition in all of Klopp’s full seasons at the club:

• 2016-17: none
• 2017-18: €81 million
• 2018-19: €111 million
• 2019-20: €80 million
• 2020-21: €88 million
• 2021-22: €120 million
• 2022-23: €84 million
• 2023-24: €27 million

In 2016-17, Liverpool weren’t in Europe competition at all, and in 2023-24, they were in the Europa League. As Slot said in February: “When I arrived here and only signed Federico Chiesa, it was after a Europa League season.”

This is true, and less revenue means less money to spend on improving the team. But what’s interesting is that Slot is suggesting that the financial impact from missing out on the Champions League actually comes a year later. The transfer spending at the club suggests as much, too.

The €12 million deal for Chiesa was Liverpool’s only permanent move in the summer of 2024. But after the disappointing 2022-23 campaign, Liverpool spent €172 million combined (per Transfermarkt) on the acquisitions of Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch and Wataru Endo ahead of a season without Champions League matches.

Don’t forget: They also agreed to a nine-figure, Premier League-record deal with Brighton for Moisés Caicedo, who instead decided to join Chelsea — another club that failed to qualify for the Champions League after four consecutive top-four finishes.

Now, I’m not totally convinced that Liverpool only cut their spending in 2024 because of the lack of Champions League revenue from the preceding season. They also signed current backup goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili from Valencia to a deal to be made permanent the following season. They had agreed to sign Martín Zubimendi from Real Sociedad too, only for him to make a last-second U-turn and stay in Spain for another season before joining Arsenal this past summer. Plus, they also had to sort out the contract situations for their three best and most expensive players: Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Unlike in 2012, when clubs such as Arsenal were competing financially with the top four teams in all of Europe’s other major leagues and added European revenue might mean you would sign someone who otherwise would’ve went to AC Milan, the biggest Premier League clubs are now only really competing with Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain for talent. The rest of the Premier League is competing with the top-four teams in all of Europe’s major leagues now.

The combined commercial and broadcasting revenues generated by the topflight in England means that losing out on Champions League revenue, on average, isn’t as painful as it used to be. In 2022-23, Liverpool and Chelsea ranked seventh and ninth, respectively, in global revenue among all clubs. In 2023-24, with neither club in the Champions League, they ranked eighth and 10th.


The potential benefit of not being able to win the Champions League

In 2016-17, with Liverpool rebounding into the top four after an eighth-place finish and Chelsea winning the Premier League title after a 10th-place finish the previous season, a new theory seemed to emerge: Not having to play in the Champions League was actually beneficial for your Premier League performance.

To test this, a trained astrophysicist and Harvard professor wrote a blog post where he looked at the relationship between the season-to-season change in European matches played by a given team and the season-to-season change in Premier League points won.

“[For] each extra game a team plays in Europe, they can expect to lose half a point relative to the previous season,” he wrote. “So, if a team plays 12 more games, it will be 6 points worse off [on average] than the previous season.”

The author, funnily enough, was Laurie Shaw, who now holds the title of “chief scientist” at Liverpool. At the time Shaw wrote the piece, a number of other analyses had determined that there was no “hangover effect” for teams playing in Europe. In other words, teams that had just played a match in Europe didn’t perform worse than expected in their following Premier League match. Shaw’s work suggested that there’s a kind of cumulative effect from extra devoting resources — energy, strategy, travel, etc. — to European matches.

Last month, the blogger Markstats looked at the past three seasons and found there still to be no clear hangover effect in the Premier League. Since we can’t ask Shaw to just rerun his analysis for every season since 2016-17, I decided to do it — but only with Champions League matches.

This is how it looks when you plot all of the pairs of seasons when a team competed in the Champions League in at least one of them:

visualization

While it’s not a strong relationship, it’s close to the same relationship that Shaw observed in 2016. You can see it in the downward slope of the trendline.

Based on this data: For every extra Champions League game a team plays, they lose a little more than a third of a point on average. So, every three extra games in the Champions League are worth about one point in the Premier League table. And if we remove last season, when the total number of Champions League games increased for everyone, then the numbers match Shaw’s — a point lost for every two extra Champions League games played.

Now, there are lots of confounding factors here. When some teams miss the Champions League, they’ve usually been unlucky to an unsustainable degree. The same goes in the other direction: Sometimes teams qualify for the Champions League because of unsustainable hot streaks. How much of this is inevitable regression to the mean? And how much of this is a genuine decline in performance related to the extra intense games on your schedule?

But at the very least, there’s something here. It seems reasonable to expect the best teams to actually play more games in the Champions League, so the fact that on average teams perform better in the Premier League while playing fewer Champions League games suggests to me that there is a real negative effect of the added toll of extra high-level matches.

I also looked at the total number of games played from season to season across all competitions, and there’s basically no relationship to changes in points, so that suggests there’s something about the Champions League in particular that affects domestic performance.

Of course, it would be absurd to say that it’s better not to be in the Champions League. We don’t watch or care about sports because of the financial results they produce — the finances help produce the results and get produced by the results. The point of all of this is to try to win things like the Champions League and the Premier League. The way you do that is by, you know, actually participating in the Champions League.

But I do think we’ve potentially entered a stage of the Premier League’s growth where the teams are so rich, and the competition is so grueling, that there’s potential for a one-year exponential boost for a club that drops out of the competition. You’ll still have lots of money to spend on your roster because of the European revenue from the previous season, you’re probably going to have some better luck going forward, and you’ll get a full season without the potentially deleterious effects of all those midweek Champions League matches.

Whoever misses out on the top five this season would seem like a logical pick to bounce back into the Champions League places next year. So, Liverpool or Chelsea fans: There’s something that might be able to help you sleep at night.



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Michigan’s Richard repeats as NCAA men’s all-around champion

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Michigan’s Richard repeats as NCAA men’s all-around champion


CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Michigan’s Fred Richard won his second straight all-around individual crown Saturday night, and Cooper Kim and Jun Iwai each won individual titles to lead Stanford to its sixth NCAA men’s gymnastics championship since 2019.

Richard took home silver in the floor and parallel bars as he ran away with his third all-around individual national championship with a score of 83.598. Nebraska’s Max Odden (78.698) was second, 0.432 ahead of third-place Kristian Grahovski of Ohio State.

Stanford had 329.825 points, second-place Oklahoma finished with 328.495 and Michigan — the defending national champion — was third with 324.857. Asher Hong (14.300) took silver and Nick Kuebler (14.166) bronze on the rings in the final rotation to seal it for the Cardinal. Asher Cohen finished with a 14.500 to become the first Nebraska gymnast to win the rings since Jim Hartung in 1982.

Stanford claimed the program’s 11th national gymnastics championship; the Cardinal have won at least one NCAA team title for 50 straight seasons, since the men’s water polo team beat UCLA 13-12 for the national championship on Nov. 28, 1976. The next longest active streak is North Carolina’s seven straight years with at least one team title.

Iwai had a 14.433 on the vault, tied with Nebraska’s Tyler Flores for first. Landen Blixt of Michigan was third (14.366).

Flores, Nathan Roman (14.800 on the parallel bars) and Kelton Christiansen (14.400, high bar) each won individual titles for the second-place Sooners.

Kim scored a 14.466 to win gold on the floor to beat Richard (14.400). Kuebler and Tate Costa of Illinois finished third with 14.166.

Brandon Dang (Illinois) won the pommel horse with a score of 14.700, Michigan’s Aaronson Mansberger was second (14.566) and Colby Aranda of Oklahoma finished third with 14.133 points.



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Mets in free fall after losing 10th straight game

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Mets in free fall after losing 10th straight game


CHICAGO — The New York Mets will have to defy the odds if they plan on making the postseason this year after dropping their 10th consecutive game on Saturday, a 4-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs.

Only three teams in the divisional era (since 1969) have made the postseason after a double-digit losing streak — including last year’s Cleveland Guardians.

“No one is going to feel sorry for us,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said after the latest defeat. “We have to keep going. We haven’t been playing good baseball. We have 5½ months ahead. We have the opportunity to write our own story.”

The Mets say they can’t point to any single thing which has led them to their longest April losing streak in franchise history. They certainly aren’t hitting enough, scoring just 18 runs during the streak, the fewest for them over 10 games since June 3-5, 2018.

They’re also making bad pitches, like the one reliever Brooks Raley made to pinch hitter Carson Kelly in the sixth inning Saturday. Kelly deposited Raley’s first pitch cutter into the left-field bleachers for a three-run home run, breaking a 1-1 tie. The Cubs cruised to victory from there.

“We haven’t been able to put together a complete game,” Mendoza said. “It’s either the offense or starting pitching, like not making [that] pitch, not making a play, not getting a big hit. Just having a hard time playing a complete game right now.”

Mendoza’s job is seemingly safe after president of baseball operations David Stearns said Friday he thought his third-year manager was doing a good job and is putting players in a position to succeed. Of course, things can change if the losses continue to pile up for the Mets, who missed the postseason last year after a disastrous second half.

The team is trying not to focus on the negative this early in the season.

“It’s a big boy league,” infielder Marcus Semien said. “There is no time to dwell on tonight. Tomorrow is a new day … It’s as simple as showing up tomorrow with a good attitude. Hopefully other guys see a smile on my face when I show up.”

Semien and Mendoza offered up few solutions to the team’s plight, though getting All-Star Juan Soto back from a calf injury should help. But that won’t happen for a few more days. With DH Jorge Polanco (wrist) on the shelf as well, the Mets will need others to step up.

A late winter overhaul by Stearns led to a positive feeling about the team entering this season. But those additions, like Saturday’s starter Freddy Peralta, haven’t produced enough. Third baseman Mark Vientos did hit a long home run in the loss but New York’s offense was mostly quiet the rest of the day.

Mendoza was asked how he thought Mets fans were feeling right now.

“They have the right to be pissed and frustrated,” he said. “They care. Just like we do. … I understand how they’re feeling. I’d be pissed too, if I was a fan. I’m pissed. They’re pissed.”

The 10-game losing streak is the longest in April since the 2023 White Sox. The loss has the Mets 6½ games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, an unusually large deficit for this time of year.

“It’s frustrating to lose baseball games and when you lose this many in a row, it compounds,” Semien said. “The game does not own you any wins. You have to go out and get it.”

The Mets rank in the bottom half of the league in most offensive and pitching categories, including home runs. They’ve hit just 15 this season, only ahead of the San Francisco Giants for fewest in the National League. Their starting pitching isn’t much better, ranking 21st in ERA.

The team is hoping Sunday will bring them different results.

“We have to do something to get in the W column,” Semien said. “No one is showing up thinking about how it’s going to happen again. We’re thinking about how we’re going to win.”

Mendoza added: “Were putting ourselves in a hole right now. There is only one way to [get out of] it. Come back tomorrow, ready to go.”

ESPN Research contributed to this report.



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Sikander Raza hails new teams’ addition in PSL | The Express Tribune

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Sikander Raza hails new teams’ addition in PSL | The Express Tribune



KARACHI:

Sikandar Raza said that adding new teams to the PSL is a good decision as it will expand the player pool. In an exclusive interview with Express Tribune, he said that even with 8 teams, it may take years to discover new stars—nothing happens overnight. The league has reached this stage due to the important role of the five original owners, who came in at the beginning and remained committed for 10 years. Because of them, Multan Sultans were added earlier, and now Hyderabad Kingsmen and Rawalpindiz teams have joined.

Answering a question, he said if off-the-field issues are affecting your game, then you should not even step onto the field. If you are playing, you must forget everything outside. Lahore Qalanders lost a few matches due to poor performance; senior batters couldn’t perform, and I take a big share of the responsibility. I should have spent more time at the crease. The bowlers performed well. In Karachi, I probably couldn’t understand the pitch. I have learned my lesson and will try to perform better in upcoming matches.

Sikander added that not only Lahore Qalandars but players from other teams also spend good time together. New players show great respect, and such an environment is created that we forget that I am from another country. Usama Mir also recently said that only two foreign cricketers had arrived.

About Fakhar zaman

Sikandar Raza said that he jokes the most with Fakhar Zaman but respects him the most as well. He is the elder of the family. Our team bus turns into a school where he becomes the principal and gives lectures on various aspects of life. I have a great friendship with Abdullah Shafique; we trained together. I consider his failure as my own and help wherever I can. I also keep an eye on Lahore Qalandars players’ performances in Pakistan’s domestic events.

I am afraid of captaincy
Raza said that in Asia, people think becoming captain is a big achievement, but I am actually afraid of captaincy—what if I lose my temper or make something personal and damage a youngster’s career? I accepted captaincy because my country Zimbabwe needed me. I want to prepare a future captain so I can step away from the role.

Lahore Qalandars is my family; I never think about money

Sikander said that Sameen Rana and Atif Rana have created a family-like environment in Lahore Qalandars. Every player gets respect and love. The owners suffered heavy losses in the first 6–7 years, but they learned from it and found players who could build a family-like atmosphere.
He added that due to the PSL auction system, people began questioning his salary. They thought he would have earned more if he entered the auction. I requested owner Sameen Rana to keep me in the $40,000 Gold category, but later I found out I was retained for $100,000. I told him I wanted a lower category so we could take more money into the auction and bring our “family” back into the team. That was more important than money. Such values seem to be disappearing in Pakistan—how important family is.
Whether we win or lose, it was always with the same players. We knew Fakhar Zaman and Haris Rauf were being targeted by other franchises. Ubaid Shah and Usama Mir were also in our plans, and we might have had to go into bidding wars for them. That’s why I was happy even with the lowest salary. I believe what is destined will come—if not this year, then next or later. I never asked Sameen Rana for any under-the-table payments.

Shaheen has become smarter technically as a captain
Sikander Raza said people see Shaheen Afridi’s aggression on the field, but he is actually a humble and Down to earth person who can do anything for his team. When Sameen Rana and Shaheen formed a combination, the team environment improved further. Shaheen is an aggressive captain; whenever there’s a tough situation—like bowling the third over in the powerplay or when no wickets are falling—he steps forward himself. He leads from the front when the team needs him. Technically, he has also become smarter as a captain; earlier he followed his heart, but now experience has added more dimensions.

I want fans to return to PSL
Sikander Raza said he wants fans to return to PSL. Friends and relatives used to ask for tickets, and I’m ready to take that headache again because it means crowds will return. I want to see fans back in stadiums.

Sufiyan Muqeem is a tough bowler
Sikander Raza said that so far in this PSL, young Pakistani bowler Sufiyan Muqeem has been the toughest. Usama Mir is also an incredible bowler, and Ubaid Shah is performing very well.

T20 World Cup: We could have won matches in Super 8
Raza said Zimbabwe made history by reaching the Super 8 stage in the T20 World Cup. As a player, the event was good for me, but as a captain, I made some mistakes that cost the team. After reaching Super 8, there was so much hype that we considered it our limit—that what we achieved was enough. I believe we could have won matches at that stage too, but we didn’t due to mistakes from me and the team.
In the match against South Africa, I was set. If I had played the full overs, we could have scored 175–180 and won. As a captain, that would have felt like a real achievement.

Life in Zimbabwe is peaceful
Sikander Raza said life in Zimbabwe is peaceful. There are 80–90 Pakistani families there. We get good food at home and during weekend gatherings, so we don’t miss Pakistani cuisine. People there show great respect. After participating in the World Cup, conditions have improved further. I also sent two young cricketers to Pakistan through Lahore Qalandars to improve their performance. There is also an agreement between Zimbabwe and Qalandars, which will encourage more youngsters to take up the sport.

After COVID, I didn’t believe I would play cricket again
Sikander Raza said after COVID, he didn’t even believe he would play cricket again. Surgeries were a very difficult time. I stopped thinking about the future and accepted whatever would happen. Then I found peace. Now, even if I’m told that tomorrow is my last match, I won’t have any problem.



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