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Worst transfers of the window, ranked: From Cunha to Isak, 13 big moves that might fail

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Worst transfers of the window, ranked: From Cunha to Isak, 13 big moves that might fail


Every year, after the NFL draft, everyone is talking about “steals” and “reaches.” The “steals” are the players that the football-watching public thinks went way later than their talent warranted. And the “reaches” are the players we thought went way higher than they should’ve.

It turns out: we’re only half right.

A 2021 study by Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus looked back at six years of draft data and identified the players who went significantly higher or lower than the consensus of publicly available draft rankings. What he found is that the players who were “reaches” did underperform, on average, compared to the other players drafted at the same pick in other years. But the players who were “steals”? They didn’t perform any better than we’d expect, based on their draft position.

The elegance of this study comes in the rationality of its explanation. For a player to be a true “reach,” only one team has to make a player-evaluation mistake. For a player to be a true “steal,” almost the entire NFL has to make a player-evaluation mistake, and NFL teams have access to way more information than the general public does.

I bring this up because I think a similar heuristic might apply to the soccer transfer market. It’s very easy for one club to lock onto a player and pay way more than any other would have ever considered. It’s much harder for every club with the requisite budget to undervalue the same talented player. This is why there’s a common refrain among data-based thinkers in the soccer world: Hire me just so I can tell you “no” a couple times a year, and I’ll be worth it.

So, with the transfer window now closed across Europe’s top leagues, what moves look like the biggest reaches? Who might’ve benefitted from someone on staff saying “no”? Here are the top 13 most questionable transfers of this summer window.


The best worst transfers: Why Sancho, Werner were good moves
Striker domino effect: How Premier League clubs net out
Men’s transfer grades: What moves mean across Europe


13. Martín Zubimendi, defensive midfielder, Real Sociedad to Arsenal

-Age: 26
-Fee: €70 million
-Market value (per Transfermarkt): €60 million
-Projected negative differential between fee and value in a year: 16.7%

Last summer, I wrote about a simple transfer projection system that NFL analyst Kevin Cole helped me create. And we’re using that same system to come up with these rankings. Here’s an excerpt:

To varying degrees, a lower age, a lower transfer fee, and a higher market value at the time of the transfer made it more likely there was an increase in value after a year. Then, we can take those factors and create a formula to predict an increase or decrease in value for any big transfer.

In other words: a year from now, is a player’s market value likely to be higher or lower than their transfer fee, and by how much?

This is a basic analysis, and it doesn’t account for the extra costs of player wages, which can vary significantly. Plus, we’re using estimated numbers from Transfermarkt to come up with the market values and the fees, which often contain add-ons.

However, studies have found that Transfermarkt values tend to be pretty close to true player value on average, and it also lets us harness the power of the wisdom of the crowds: The market values on the site are a pretty good representation of what the world thinks of a player. At least based on our analysis, when teams have paid significantly more than the Transfermarkt value for a player, those moves have tended to not work out.

Fitting with what I said earlier: When I looked at last summer’s 30 most expensive transfers, the system was much better at projecting the misses than it was nailing the hits. Among the players projected to see a less than 1% increase in value, I’d say one of the 12 (Elliot Anderson to Nottingham Forest) was a true success. Three of the players, João Palhinha, João Félix, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall are already playing for new teams.

Arsenal’s transfer approach this summer was seemingly designed to rate poorly in these projections: They want to win now and don’t seem to care much about how things might look down the road. The Gunners have signed three players age 26 or older for €65 million or more.


12. Gerson, central midfielder, Flamengo to Zenit Saint Petersburg

-Age: 28
-Fee: €25 million
-Market value: €25 million
-Projected negative differential: 17%

There are two Zenit players on Carlo Ancelotti’s most recent Brazil roster. And neither of them are named “Gerson.”


11. Luis Díaz, winger, Liverpool to Bayern Munich

-Age: 28
-Fee: €70 million
-Market value: €70 million
-Projected negative differential: 17%

Diaz was fantastic for Liverpool last season, but there are only three 28-year-olds who required a higher transfer fee than what Bayern Munich paid to acquire him:

-Eden Hazard: €120.8 million, Chelsea to Real Madrid
-Antoine Griezmann: €120 million, Atletico Madrid to Barcelona
-Romelu Lukaku: €113 million, Inter Milan to Chelsea
-Gonzalo Higuain: €90 million, Napoli to Juventus

Hazard might be the worst transfer of all time, Lukaku lasted one season at Chelsea, and Griezmann and Higuain made it two full years with Barcelona and Juventus, respectively, before moving elsewhere. All of these players were held in similar — if not higher — esteem to Diaz at the time of their moves. For as good as Diaz has looked to start the season, history is not on Bayern’s side with this one.


10. Kingsley Coman, winger, Bayern Munich to Al-Nassr

-Age: 29
-Fee: €25 million
-Market value: €30 million
-Projected negative differential: 17.3%

The Saudi Pro League isn’t operating on the same economic terms as the rest of the soccer world. They’re not constrained by Profit and Sustainability Rules, UEFA regulations, or even more universal concerns like “budgets,” “profits,” and “the value of money.” They’re also typically paying such inflated salaries to players that looking at only the transfer fees tells an even smaller part of the story than it usually does.

But just for fun, I wanted to see if any of the deals they’ve made this summer actually project well based on our simple model. And one of them actually does. While it seemed as if Enzo Millot was headed to Atletico Madrid, Al Ahli swooped in and nabbed the 23-year-old attacking midfielder from Stuttgart for €30 million. Transfermarkt put his market value at €35 million, and a year from now that number projects to be 17.5% higher than the fee Al Ahli paid. That would make Millot the 24th “best” transfer of the summer.


9. Matheus Cunha, attacking midfielder, Wolverhampton to Manchester United

-Age: 26
-Fee: €74.2 million
-Market value: €60 million
-Projected negative differential: 21.02%

play

1:09

Did Manchester United overpay for Cunha?

The “ESPN FC” crew discuss their thoughts on Matheus Cunha joining Manchester United for 62.5 million pounds.

We’ll dig in here when we get to another Man United signing on this list. Can you guess who?


8. Alexander Isak, forward, Newcastle to Liverpool

-Age: 25
-Fee: €140 million
-Market value: €120 million
-Projected negative differential: 26%

This nicely encapsulates the upside and downside of spending more money on a transfer fee than any club not owned by the nation of Qatar ever has.

It’s pretty much impossible for Isak to give Liverpool more than they’ve invested in acquiring him. If he wins the Ballon d’Or, then maybe you could say that. But basically, Isak has to be one of the 10 or 15 best players in the world — immediately and then for many more years after that for this deal to “break even” in any kind of value sense.

Unlike the club’s two other major moves for youngsters Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz, Isak is 25, already in his prime. He turns 26 next month. This is it.

Plus, well, I’m not convinced that Isak is in that absolute top tier of elite talent. He has never scored 20 non-penalty goals in a season. Heck, he has hit double digits only three times. And he played fewer than two-thirds of the available Premier League minutes in his three years with Newcastle. The overwhelmingly likely outcome is that Isak nets out somewhere below “€140 million player” when all is said and done.

But barring injury, which is a concern, given Isak’s lack of ability, there’s probably quite a high floor here, too.

Sure, the model projects Isak’s crowd-sourced value to be 26% lower, come this time next year, than that €140 million fee Liverpool paid. But even with that decline, Liverpool would still have a starting striker valued at somewhere around €104 million.


7. Bryan Mbeumo, winger, Brentford to Manchester United

-Age: 25
-Fee: €75 million
-Market value: €55 million
-Projected negative differential: 21.6%

OK, now we can talk about Cunha and Mbeumo together. I’ve already written a bunch about these moves and why I didn’t like them — and the first couple of games already started to prove this out.

Manchester United paid a lot of money for two players who outperformed their expected-goals numbers by massive amounts and by much more than they’d ever done before. It was incredibly unlikely that both players, let alone one of them, would continue to convert their chances at such high rates. Through the games against Fulham and Arsenal, they’ve combined for 12 shots worth 1.21 xG and zero goals:

Even without the goals, I think Mbeumo and Cunha have still made Manchester United better. They were quite competitive at home against Arsenal, and then they played Fulham even on the road. But that’s the thing: These were two already-in-their-prime, competent Premier League players with no real chance of ever becoming stars. They were going to improve Manchester United in the short term because Manchester United finished last season in 15th place.

Now, they look as if they’re about as good as Fulham. That would be a 12-point improvement on last season. And it would still only get them up to 11th place in the table.


6. Luis Suárez, forward, Almeria to Sporting Lisbon

-Age: 27
-Fee: €22.2 million
-Market value: €8 million
-Projected negative differential: 26.82%

I, uh, yeah: This one beats me! Sporting replaced Viktor Gyokeres with the 27-year-old not-that-Luis Suarez on a five-year contract. The fee makes him the third-most expensive player the club has ever acquired, after Manuel Ugarte and Gyokeres. Given that both of those players eventually moved for big fees to bigger clubs, maybe I shouldn’t be doubting them. But it sure seems as if they think they can do the Gyokeres thing again.

They signed Gyokeres at 25, after he’d washed out at Brighton and played well in the Championship. He dominated the Portuguese league and then moved to Arsenal this summer. With Suarez, they signed him at 27, after he scored 19 non-penalty goals and added eight assists in Spain. But not in LaLiga — this was in the second division.

Before that, he’d played four first-division seasons mostly in Spain but with a half-season in France, and he’d scored 25 goals and added 10 assists — total.


5. Eberechi Eze, attacking midfielder, Crystal Palace to Arsenal

-Age: 27
-Fee: €69.3 million
-Market value: €55 million
-Projected negative differential: 26.93%

On paper, this deal projects poorly, but I want to step away from age curves and algorithms for a second. I hope this move works out. Eze grew up rooting for Arsenal, played for them at early youth levels, but was released when he was 13. Then he bounced around the lower levels of England for a while, made his pro debut with Wycombe in League Two, spent a few years with Queens Park Rangers in the Championship, and eventually signed with Palace in 2020.

Now, 14 years later, he’s back at the club that gave up on him, trying to help them win their first major title since he was 6 years old. He worked his butt off and finally got to where he has always wanted to be. This video, I mean, c’mon:

As I mentioned earlier, Arsenal are trying to win now. Their net spend on transfer fees this summer is €285.5 million, way higher than any other club in the world. And they’re pushing the majority of their resources toward players who are already well into their primes, as opposed to what they’d done in the past: targeting players who would spend all their best years at the club. That’s a massive risk.

And I think that’s especially true with this deal. It makes Eze the third-most expensive 27-year-old ever: behind Luis Suarez (Liverpool to Barcelona) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Inter Milan to Barcelona) and ahead of Kaka (AC Milan to Real Madrid), Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City to Manchester City), and Ángel Di María (Manchester United to PSG).

The hit rate with those moves is mixed, and those players were all established, title-winning superstars. We still haven’t seen Eze play at that level yet.

There’s still a chance, though, that it all works out.


4. Mateo Retegui, forward, Atalanta to Al Qadsiah

-Age: 26
-Fee: €68.25 million
-Market value: €45 million
-Projected negative differential: 30.98%

Before last season, his first with Atalanta, Retegui had never scored more than 13 non-penalty goals in a season — in any professional league, in any country — and he’d never generated more than two assists. This was a goal-scoring striker who didn’t really score many goals.

Plug him into Gianpiero Gasperini’s system for a season, though, and you get 21 non-penalty goals and eight assists. He joined from Genoa for €20.9 million. A year later, he’s leaving for more than triple that fee.

A quick word of warning to the rest of the world: the fee paid for Retegui is the second-biggest Atalanta has ever received. Right behind him: Teen Koopmeiners, who had three goals and three assists for Juventus last season. And right ahead of him: Rasmus Højlund, who is already on his way out at Manchester United.


3. Yoane Wissa, forward, Brentford to Newcastle

-Age: 28
-Fee: €57.7 million
-Market value: €32 million
-Projected negative differential: 45.27%

play

1:45

Hutchison slams Isak and Wissa’s ‘lack of professionalism’

Don Hutchison discusses Alexander Isak and Yoane Wissa’s lack of professionalism by refusing to play and train for their respective clubs when trying to move clubs.

This feels like a good example of why (A) you don’t let your best player leave on the last day of the window, and (B) you don’t pay for past performance.

The whole Isak saga felt pretty pointless in the end. If Newcastle had just made the move two months ago, then they would’ve had … [does math] … two months to figure out how best to replace him.

Granted, they did try to find his replacements earlier this summer — and kept failing. But I’m not sure how you can look at this move, and then one at the top (bottom?) of this list and not see a team that’s suddenly realizing the season’s already started, the Champions League is coming, and they might have no one to play striker.

Wissa has been one of the most underrated players in the Premier League for the past couple of seasons, but last season he hit a new level: 0.71 non-penalty goals+assists per 90 minutes, after averaging just slightly over 0.5 in the three previous seasons. If Wissa were 23 or 24, you could make a pretty good case that he’d “made the leap,” that this was his new expected level of play. But Wissa turns 29 this week.

The way more likely explanation is that he just had the best season of his life, and it’s probably not going to happen again.


2. Son Heung-Min, winger, Tottenham to LAFC

-Age: 33
-Fee: €22 million
-Market value: €20 million
-Projected negative differential: 48.2%

This is the highest transfer fee ever paid by an MLS club, and it’s the third-highest fee ever paid by any club for a player 33 or older. Only Cristiano Ronaldo‘s €117 million move to Juventus from Real Madrid and Robert Lewandowski‘s €45 million move to Barcelona from Bayern Munich cost more. Both of those players scored a ton of goals for their new clubs, and I’d suspect Son will do the same, in a much less competitive environment.

The move makes sense for LAFC, a club in MLS, a league that tends to sign players before retirement. For just about any other team in the world, though, it wouldn’t make any sense.


1. Nick Woltemade, forward, Stuttgart to Newcastle

-Age: 23
-Fee: €85 million
-Market value: €30 million
-Projected negative differential: 48.5%

Let’s say there was this really tall striker with great feet for a player his size. In his first professional season, he was playing on loan in the third division in Germany, and he was … fine. As a 20-year-old, he played a little over 2,000 minutes and scored nine non-penalty goals. A 19-year-old scored the same number of goals in the same league. Another 20-year-old scored three more.

The following season, this tall striker played about 1,200 minutes in the Bundesliga. Given that he was making a two-tier jump, he did about how you might expect: two goals across 12 starts. Then, in his third year as a full-time pro, he finally seemed as if he’d begun to develop. He started half of his team’s matches and scored 10 non-penalty goals.

This is also the player that Newcastle United have decided to invest more than half of the Alexander Isak money into.

There’s no more to the story — those were Woltemade’s last three seasons. Across his 29 starts in the Bundesliga, he has scored 12 goals. He has never played more than 1,700 minutes in a first-division season. And at 23, his peak years aren’t even that far away.

Could Woltemade develop into a star striker who lives up to the club-record fee? Absolutely — but that’s also the absolute best-case scenario. Given his incredibly limited track record, Woltemade could just as easily be out of the Premier League in a year or two.





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José Mourinho rejects ‘soap opera’ links to Real Madrid vacancy

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José Mourinho rejects ‘soap opera’ links to Real Madrid vacancy


Benfica coach José Mourinho has shut down “soap opera” rumours of a potential return to Real Madrid this summer.

Madrid parted company with Xabi Alonso last week after he had less than eight months in charge and appointed Álvaro Arbeloa, coach of Madrid’s reserves, as his replacement.

Asked about speculation in Spain that Madrid are looking to bring him back for the 2026-27 campaign, Mourinho said following Benfica’s 2-0 win at Rio Ave on Saturday: “Don’t count on me for soap operas. There are many good soap operas, but they take too long.

“Then you miss an episode or two and you lose track. Don’t count on me, I don’t watch soap operas.”

Mourinho, 62, guided Madrid to a LaLiga title, and Copa del Rey and Spanish Supercup triumphs during his three seasons (2010-13) with the Spanish giants.

The former Chelsea and Manchester United manager took the reins at Benfica in September and has a contract until June 2027.

Marcus Rashford scores, Jude Bellingham jeered – the latest at Real Madrid, Barcelona
Kylian Mbappé only trails Cristiano Ronaldo in race to 50 LaLiga goals

Benfica, third in the Primeira Liga, 10 points adrift of leaders FC Porto, play at Juventus in Wednesday’s Champions League before hosting Mourinho’s former club Real Madrid on Jan. 28.



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NFL playoffs: Divisional round questions, overreactions

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NFL playoffs: Divisional round questions, overreactions


The NFL divisional round began with an incredible game in Denver on Saturday. The Bills and Broncos went to overtime, but the Broncos emerged after hitting a 23-yard field goal to win it in the extra frame. But it came at a cost; quarterback Bo Nix went down because of an ankle injury. The second game was more one-sided, as the Seahawks blew out the 49ers on Saturday night.

Sunday began with the Patriots’ win over the Texans, with New England capitalizing on four C.J. Stroud interceptions. To cap the weekend, the Rams beat the Bears on Sunday night in a wild overtime stunner.

What are the main lessons and takeaways from each divisional round matchup, and what’s next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the second round and look forward from all angles. For each divisional round game, Solak is answering one big remaining question, and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.

Let’s jump in, making sense of Matthew Stafford‘s current play, Caleb Williams‘ place in the 2024 draft class, Stroud’s performance, the Patriots’ defense, the Seahawks’ great roster, the 49ers’ decimated roster, the Nix injury news and the Bills’ playoff woes.

Jump to:
LAR-CHI | HOU-NE
SF-SEA | BUF-DEN

‘The Bears would be in the NFC Championship Game if they’d drafted Drake Maye instead of Caleb Williams.’ Overreaction?

YES, OVERREACTION! C’MON! Sure, Maye’s team is still playing and Williams’ team isn’t. And sure, part of the reason is Williams’ overtime interception that cost the Bears a chance at a game-winning field goal and gave the Rams the opportunity to win it. The variance on Williams can be maddening. He had the lowest completion percentage of any qualified quarterback in the NFL this season. His game still needs refining. But c’mon, did you see that touchdown throw that sent the game to overtime?

Caleb Williams is the reason we watch sports. This is not hyperbole. You can tell me you watch because you bet on it, or because you play fantasy, or because you were born into the particular fandom of a particular team and enjoy suffering and celebrating with like-minded individuals. Any and all of that might be true. But on a fundamental level, the reason we watch sports is to be amazed by what human beings can accomplish when they explore or exceed the limits of human potential. Williams crystallizes all of this.

Yes, Matthew Stafford and the Rams won the game. But what I’ll remember is that Sean McVay didn’t trust Stafford to make a third-down throw when one would have put away the game in the final minutes of regulation, and that Williams made one of the most incredible, impossible fourth-down passes of all time a few moments later to tie the score and send the game to OT. Williams simply can do things other people cannot.

Maye is awesome — a wonderful, wonderful young player with a bright future ahead of him that might include a Super Bowl title in his second year as a pro. He might have a better career than Williams. But if you’re a Bears fan, you aren’t wishing your team had Maye instead. Heck, Maye has taken 10 sacks and fumbled six times in two playoff games so far. It’s not like he’s immune to mistakes. Williams obviously isn’t, either, and he’ll be kicking himself that he didn’t get it done Sunday night when the chance was in front of him. But I come out of this weekend thinking I want to watch every game Williams plays again because when he plays, anything is possible.

If you’re a Bears fan, the fact that anything is possible is a massive win, especially at quarterback, where your team has struggled to find an answer for literally more than a century. You’re bummed your team’s season is over, but you cannot wait until next season because you know you have an absolute star at the most important position. Hopefully, we get to see Maye and Williams play Super Bowls against each other in the future, and we get to debate this for years to come.

In the meantime, I don’t think either team is regretting its pick. And the Bears might have the most fun and exciting player in the NFL. — Graziano

The lingering question: Why is Stafford in a funk — and can the Rams get him out of it?

Here’s the good news: The Rams have won two playoff games, both on the road. That’s hard to do. Here’s the bad news: They look like they’re barely hanging on.

Stafford had a dropback success rate of 31.8% in this game — easily his worst in any game this season. His previous low was 41.2%. The game against the Panthers last week was his fifth lowest by success rate. On a down-to-down basis, the Rams’ passing game feels like it’s reeling. Give credit to the defenses the Rams have faced. The Panthers and Bears did a great job packing the intermediate zones and forcing the Rams to attempt more passes outside the numbers. The Bears blitzed off the edge all night, moving the generally immobile Stafford off his spot and forcing him to throw from adjusted platforms. But there’s no doubt that Stafford looks off.

play

0:17

Rams advance to NFC championship with walk-off FG in OT

Harrison Mevis makes a 42-yard field goal to give the Rams a 20-17 win vs. the Bears.

After a pristine first drive that looked like the promise of a classic Rams terminator game, he mislocated open throws to receivers in the flats, minimizing YAC and creating incompletions. Even his one-on-one shots fell uncatchable more often than they were even within contestable range. The aging veteran started the season questionable because of his back, and it looks like the season is really catching up to him. Most players are dealing with some degree of lingering pain and injury at this point in the season, but for a veteran quarterback with back concerns, the impact is magnified.

It’s tough to believe Stafford will suddenly rediscover his midseason form in a third matchup with a Seahawks defense that gave him a ton of trouble in the first matchup and enough trouble in the second. The Rams’ passing game has enough star power elsewhere (see: Nacua, Puka) that they don’t need Stafford to consistently play at an MVP level to have success, but the margins will be extremely thin against that Seahawks D — and would be thin again should they draw the Broncos or Patriots defenses in a Super Bowl. It’s hard to trust this Rams’ passing attack moving forward. — Solak


‘The Texans need to wait at least another year before extending C.J. Stroud.’ Overreaction?

No, not an overreaction. Stroud got it together in the second half Sunday, especially considering he was playing without top wide receiver Nico Collins, starting tight end Dalton Schultz got hurt and the Texans have no run game whatsoever. But he was catastrophically bad in the first half, throwing four interceptions and putting his team into a hole from which even its stifling defense could not extract it. This performance came six days after Stroud fumbled five times and turned the ball over three times in a wild-card-round victory over the Steelers that was closer in the fourth quarter than it should have been.

This season’s Texans, who rolled into Foxborough on a 10-game win streak and with a defense playing as well as any defense east of Seattle, had a golden opportunity. A win would have advanced them to their first AFC Championship Game next Sunday against a banged-up Broncos team that’s going to be playing without its starting quarterback. Sunday was a wet, snowy, sloppy game in which the Patriots had plenty of their own turnover problems and surely could have been beaten by a team that did a better job of holding on to the ball. But the Texans were not that team, and whatever legitimate excuses Stroud might have had available to him, he played horribly. You can make a strong case that he’s the reason Houston lost.

As the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft, Stroud is now eligible for a contract extension for the first time. To be clear: I have not heard one single indication that the Texans are planning to do anything other than extend Stroud as soon as they can. That’s almost certainly what will happen. But are we 100 percent sure it should?

Stroud’s rookie season was a revelation. And he has led the Texans to the second round of the playoffs in each of his three seasons so far. They believe they have a true franchise quarterback. But after throwing 26 touchdown passes and only five interceptions (counting playoffs) as a rookie, he has now thrown a combined 42 touchdowns and 26 interceptions (counting playoffs) in the two seasons since then. The Texans changed offensive coordinators after Stroud’s second season, in which he was sacked 52 times, and he did see improvement this season. But he still wasn’t up to his rookie-year standards, and this season will be remembered for his postseason meltdown.

I’m not saying Stroud is no good. He’s 24 years old. His rookie season might have set too high a standard for him to live up to in his second and third years. And he could recover from Sunday and have a Hall of Fame career. All I’m saying is, there’s no reason to hurry here. Stroud is signed through 2026, and the Texans have a team option for 2027 that’s a no-brainer to pick up. They could theoretically franchise-tag him in 2028 and 2029 if needed. Why not give it another year and see how he recovers from this and what improvements he makes to get back to playing the way he did as a rookie?

Teams rush into these deals far too often (hello, Dolphins!) and end up regretting them. I’m just not understanding the need to rush a Stroud extension after what we saw Sunday (and last Monday) and while Houston still has at least four more years of team control. — Graziano

The lingering question: Are we properly rating this Patriots defense after two dominant playoff performances?

A quick look at the stats: Against the Texans, the Patriors had 3.3 yards per play allowed and five takeaways. They pressured Stroud on 36% of his dropbacks, and he was 2-for-14 on those plays. Texans running backs had 18 carries for 31 yards — this, one week after the Chargers’ backs had 12 carries for 30 yards in the wild-card round. The Patriots have given up one touchdown across two playoff games, and it was a 27-yard drive off a Drake Maye turnover.

The Patriots’ defense has experienced a revitalization over the postseason in large part because of the players who have returned from injury: Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga, Robert Spillane and Harold Landry III all sat out time at the end of the regular season, and the run defense in particular has hugely benefited from the return to health in the front seven. But the Patriots have also played two remarkably below-average offensive lines, especially for playoff contenders. The Chargers’ interior has been an issue all season, and the Texans’ offensive line had barely scraped together passable play in the second half of the season before injuries caught up to them in this Patriots game.

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0:42

C.J. Stroud throws his 4th INT of the game

Carlton Davis III picks off C.J. Stroud again as the Patriots come away with their fourth interception of the first half vs. the Texans.

I have no doubt that the Patriots’ defense is a strong unit and has benefitted from more health, but I am also certain that they’ve drawn a particularly soft schedule of opposing offensive trenches, which has allowed them to dictate game state easily. The truth of the Patriots’ defense is somewhere in the middle, but it’s hard to tell exactly where. This isn’t particularly meaningful for next week, as the Patriots draw a much better offensive line in the Broncos … but New England will also see a backup quarterback in Jarrett Stidham following the injury to Bo Nix. The Patriots’ defense should have a huge advantage in that game based on quarterback play alone.

But as we potentially enter a Super Bowl run for the Patriots, we’ll be faced with a tough challenge: riddling out exactly how good this defense is playing relative to the offenses it has faced. And that also goes for the regular season. Much has been made of the Patriots’ easy schedule for weeks now. Again, I’m certain this is a good unit. But how good? Good enough to beat the Seahawks if the offense has a terrible day against the uproarious Seattle defense? Good enough to stop the high-flying offense of the Bears or Rams? Even as we wrap up Week 20, it’s a unit I’m not sure I fully appreciate, which makes estimating exactly how dominant this Patriots team is somewhat tricky. — Solak


‘The Seahawks had the best offseason of any team.’ Overreaction?

No, not an overreaction. The Seahawks went into the 2025 offseason intent on and expecting to sign Geno Smith to a contract extension. When it became apparent to them that Smith wasn’t interested in extending his deal at their numbers, they traded him to the Raiders and signed Sam Darnold. Say what you will about Darnold, but the 2025 Seahawks went 14-3 — same record as Darnold’s 2024 Vikings — and now he has a home game Jan. 25 in the NFC Championship Game.

Seahawks GM John Schneider went about his offseason the same way he would have had he landed his first choice at quarterback. He signed DeMarcus Lawrence. He signed Cooper Kupp because he’s a better blocker at this point than Tyler Lockett. He drafted Nick Emmanwori in the second round. Schneider freaking loves the second round. Even as someone who likes to see players get as much money as they can and wishes the top QBs would push harder to move the market upward for others, I still have to appreciate a philosophy like Seattle’s approach: “Do we have to pay our quarterback $50-plus million per year if he still hasn’t shown he’s that guy?”

A Seahawks employee told me after the team’s wild Week 16 victory over the Rams, “We’re trying to win championships here,” and the Seahawks obviously are living that. Seattle has lost three games all season, and the margins were four, three and two points. Two of those losses were to division rivals, one of which they eliminated Saturday. Is Darnold the second coming of Joe Montana? No. Of John Elway? No. Of Patrick Mahomes? No. But the Seahawks decided, at some point, that they intend to be the example of how to win a championship without paying great quarterback money to a pretty good quarterback because there’s a championship-caliber roster around him.

Kudos to the Seahawks for treating the QB portion of their offseason the way they would have treated any other portion of it. They didn’t get the player they wanted, but they knew they could still win with this quarterback because of everything else they do well. Hiring Mike Macdonald as head coach was a last offseason move, not a this offseason move, but it was still one that impacted their approach to this offseason. And here they still are. — Graziano

The lingering question: Will the 49ers be NFC favorites with a healthy team next season?

It’s too early to say, of course. But spin it forward for me. The Seahawks will likely be the favorite, barring some catastrophic injury between now and then. The Rams could be up there, as well, especially if they finish the NFC playoffs strong … but Matthew Stafford‘s career longevity is always going to be a question that hurts them in the futures markets. Meanwhile, the 49ers still have most of their main players under contract.

Trent Williams‘ contract is expiring, and the offensive line clearly needs help across the board. Wide receiver is a little thin with the Brandon Aiyuk situation unclear and Jauan Jennings approaching free agency. But that young defense, which was hammered by injuries this season, will return Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. And Yetur Gross-Matos and Jordan Elliott are the only two expiring contracts there. This group will benefit from postseason experience next season and will presumably add to the pass rush.

Of course, the 49ers will see if they get through the offseason without losing defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who was key to their surprising success despite all the injuries. Saleh has interviewed with the Titans and Ravens already and is a deservedly hot name on the head coaching circuit. If he gets a job, San Francisco will be forced back on the defensive coordinator carousel.

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Seahawks pick off Brock Purdy in 3rd quarter

Brock Purdy tries to throw down the middle, but gets intercepted by the 49ers’ Ernest Jones IV.

It’s also worth noting that the 49ers, who had a very easy schedule entering this season, will play a third-place schedule next season despite their postseason appearance. With only a few moves in offseason housekeeping and a regression to the mean in injury luck, the Niners should be considered a deep NFC playoff team once again. — Solak


‘The Broncos are done without Bo Nix.’ Overreaction?

No, not an overreaction. The Broncos barely won Saturday’s game. Buffalo had to turn the ball over five times — including once in overtime — or else Nix might not have broken his ankle in the first place. And certainly, without Nix’s clutch play in the fourth quarter and overtime, Denver wouldn’t have won and advanced to a home AFC Championship Game.

But now? You want me to believe the Broncos are going to beat Houston or New England with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback? And even if they do, does anyone believe they can then win the Super Bowl? I’m sorry, Jarrett, but it just doesn’t feel to me like this Broncos team is good enough to pull a 2017 Eagles and win this thing without their starting quarterback.

The Broncos have a good defense, yes. We know this about them. But they weren’t super awesome Saturday against a Bills team that moved the ball extremely well between turnovers, and they haven’t been elite in the way that defenses such as Seattle and Houston have been — at least not over the second half of this season. The Broncos do run the ball better than most think, but c’mon. We all watched this game. The Bills handed the Broncos 10 points at the tail end of the first half, then three more at the start of the second, and Buffalo still had a fourth-quarter lead that Nix found a way to overcome. Nix isn’t a perfect player, but what he can do with his legs and what he can do in the clutch are separating factors that Stidham just doesn’t offer.

The Broncos defense is going to have to play the game of a lifetime next week — even if it’s against Houston’s inconsistent offense — if it wants to lug this team into the Super Bowl. And even if it collects a bunch of turnovers and sneaks into the big game, Denver is then going to have to beat a team that has had two weeks off and likely still has its starting quarterback.

It’s a shame. It would have been fun to see what Sean Payton and this Broncos team could have done. Payton could have been the first coach to win the Super Bowl with two different teams. But in the wake of the Nix injury news, all of that is a lot harder to imagine. — Graziano

The lingering question: Why do the Bills keep losing in the postseason?

I have no idea. What is there to say? The Bills turned the football over five times, and no team that turns the ball over five times deserves to be in the game at all. Josh Allen‘s end-of-half fumble to let the Broncos go up 20-10 was an inexcusable mistake. He was stripped to start the second half to give Denver an even bigger lead. He threw a pick immediately off a key defensive takeaway.

It felt like Allen was digging the hole, and then as always, Allen was the one to pull the Bills back out. But there were too many misses. Allen failed to connect with Khalil Shakir on a third-and-8 screen in the red zone that could have allowed him to score, and he missed an open Dawson Knox at the end of regulation on a throw that could have walked the game off. Allen was simultaneously one of the biggest reasons the Bills were still in that game, while also being one of the biggest reasons they fell short.

The Bills have now made it to seven consecutive postseasons with Allen at the helm, which means they’ve suffered seven postseason losses. There’s really no unifying factor on the field, though. Wide receiver talent was a big deal in this game; Allen was 0-for-9 throwing 20-plus yards downfield, and downfield production is often a receiver stat. The pass rush has been an issue and was again in this game; Nix was pressured on 20% of his dropbacks, and the Bills needed to send blitzes to get home. Defensive back depth was also a big deal; two of Nix’s three touchdowns came targeting backup defensive backs.

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Wil Lutz sends Broncos to AFC Championship Game on winning FG in OT

Wil Lutz nails the game-winning field goal in overtime to send the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game.

Still, when you’ve lost seven playoff games, there are some obvious unifying factors — coach Sean McDermott, GM Brandon Beane and Allen. The Bills’ triumvirate has been in place for the better part of a decade and has yet to get over the hump. Whether fair or unfair, the buck stops at the top, and the fact that the Bills have failed to make a Super Bowl in Allen’s tenure despite seven postseason appearances is an enormous failure.

If the Bills make changes, I’d totally get it. If they don’t, I’d totally get it, too. They’ve been so close so many times. What a devastating loss. — Solak



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Texans’ Azeez Al-Shaair talks fine for pro-Palestinian message on eye tape: ‘It’s bigger than me’

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Texans’ Azeez Al-Shaair talks fine for pro-Palestinian message on eye tape: ‘It’s bigger than me’


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Houston Texans pass rusher Azeez Al-Shaair spoke out about the fine he received for wearing a pro-Palestinian message across his eye tape during a playoff win against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Al-Shaair talked to reporters outside his locker in the wake of the Texans’ loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday. He was hit with a fine of $11,593 for having “Stop the genocide” emblazoned across the tape, according to ESPN.

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Azeez Al-Shaair of the Houston Texans during the national anthem before the wild-card playoff game against the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Jan. 12, 2026, in Pittsburgh. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

He told the media he was aware what he did would garner a fine.

“I knew that that was a fine. I understood what I was doing … I was told that if I wore that in the game, I would be pulled out the game,” he said, via ESPN. “I think that was the part that I was confused about because I understood that was a fine but I never seen Stef (Stefon Diggs) get pulled out of a game for having eye tape with writing on it.

“At the end of the day, it’s bigger than me, the things that are going on. If it makes people uncomfortable, imagine how those people feel. I think that’s the biggest thing. I have no affiliation, no connection to these people other than the fact that I’m a human being. If you have a heart and you’re a human being and you see what’s going on in the world, you check yourself real quick. Even when I’m walking off this field, that’s the type of stuff that goes on in my head. I check myself when I’m sitting here crying about football when there’s people who are dying every single day.”

The NFL rulebook states in Rule 5, Section 4, Article 8 what players are allowed and not allowed to wear on game days. The rule states, “Throughout the period on game-day that a player is visible to the stadium and television audience (including in pregame warm-ups, in the bench area, and during postgame interviews in the locker room or on the field), players are prohibited from wearing, displaying, or otherwise conveying personal messages either in writing or illustration, unless such message has been approved in advance by the League office.

Azeez Al-Shaair runs off the field

Azeez Al-Shaair of the Houston Texans exits the field during the playoff game against the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Jan. 12, 2026, in Pittsburgh. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

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“The League will not grant permission for any club or player to wear, display, or otherwise convey messages, through helmet decals, arm bands, jersey patches, mouthpieces, or other items affixed to game uniforms or equipment, which relate to political activities or causes, other non-football events, causes or campaigns, or charitable causes or campaigns. Further, any such approved items must be modest in size, tasteful, non-commercial, and non-controversial; must not be worn for more than one football season.”

Al-Shaair has supported Palestinians in the past, including wearing “Free Palestine” cleats for the NFL’s “My Cause My Cleats” campaign during the 2024 season. 

Al-Shaair had “Free” written on one side of his shoes in the colors of the Palestinian flag. On one shoe, “Surely to Allah we belong and to Him we will all return,” was written. On the side of his other shoe, he included the number of Palestinians reportedly killed and wounded in their war with Israel.

The shoes were for the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund, which he also supported in 2023.

“I feel like it’s something that’s trying to be almost silenced,” Al-Shaair told the Houston Chronicle at the time. “On either side, people losing their life is not right. In no way, shape, or form am I validating anything that happened, but to consistently say that because of [Oct. 7] innocent people [in Gaza] should now die, it’s crazy. 

Azeez Al-Shaair

Azeez al-Shaair of the Houston Texans shakes hands with Aaron Rodgers of the Steelers after their playoff game at Acrisure Stadium on Jan. 12, 2026, in Pittsburgh. (Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

“[Other people] try to make a disconnect and dehumanize people over there. And it’s like, they’re human beings. Being a Muslim, we see everybody the same; Black, White, Spanish, whatever you are; you can be orange, like, we’re all human beings.”

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Al-Shaair was also part of the Athletes for Ceasefire organization.

Fox News’ Ryan Morik contributed to this report.

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