Sports
2026 NFL trade grades: David Montgomery, Tytus Howard
NFL free agency begins March 9 with the legal negotiating window, but the action has already started. The Jets and Titans made the first big move of the offseason last week, with New York sending edge rusher Jermaine Johnson to Tennessee for defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat. The Texans and Browns followed Monday, with Houston sending offensive tackle Tytus Howard to the Browns for a fifth-round pick. And the Lions made a surprising move later on Monday, trading running David Montgomery to the Texans for guard Juice Scruggs and two draft picks.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the biggest signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players. To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age, and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?
Follow along as Walder evaluates and grades each move, with the most recent grades at the top. Let’s start with the Montgomery deal.
More coverage:
Top 50 free agents | Best free agent fits
Jump to a notable deal:
Montgomery-Scruggs | Howard
Johnson-Sweat

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Texans get: RB David Montgomery
Lions get: G Juice Scruggs, 2026 fourth-round draft pick, 2027 seventh-round pick
Texans grade: D
Lions grade: A
At some point this offseason, the Texans needed to add a running back to team up with second-year man Woody Marks. They opted to do that early by acquiring Montgomery. Houston’s running game was abysmal in 2025, ranking 31st in EPA per designed carry. Their running back play wasn’t ideal, but the biggest culprit of that poor performance was an offensive line that ranked 32nd in run block win rate. Though Marks averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, he still recorded 31 rush yards over expected, another sign that the offensive line was the problem.
In Montgomery, the Texans acquire a reliable veteran who recorded 125 rush yards over expected with Detroit in 2025, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But his role has steadily decreased in recent years with the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs. In the 14 games Montgomery played in 2023, he was featured on 48% of snaps and carried the ball 219 games. By 2025, those numbers dropped to 37% and 158, respectively, despite playing in 17 games. Montgomery’s receiving work was also limited because of Gibbs — as his 24 receptions last season where nowhere close to the 54 he once caught with the Bears in 2020.
Montgomery’s contract is reasonable: He’ll cost Houston $6 million in cash this year (and $9 million non-guaranteed next year) if left untouched. But that does not mean this was a smart acquisition. An aging (29 years old in June), early-down back whose prior team had been phasing out is not worth spending real resources on. It surprises me that Detroit was able to lure a four-seven swap here since they could have found comparable expected production for far less.
Scruggs is a reclamation project throw-in for Detroit. The 2023 second-round pick has bounced around the interior of Houston’s offensive line. At guard, he has been in the 24th and 26th percentiles in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively. The results at center in 2024 were even worse, as he was third percentile in both metrics. Scruggs has one year left on his rookie deal, but the draft picks should be more than enough here for the Lions. They can use that capital to find another running back to complement Gibbs late in the draft or find a low-cost veteran in free agency. It’s as easy a win as the Lions will find all offseason.
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Browns get: OT Tytus Howard
Texans get: 2026 fifth-round pick
Browns grade: D+
Texans grade: A-
One starting offensive lineman down, four more to go for the Browns. In acquiring Howard, an offensive tackle who has occasionally kicked inside to guard in his seven NFL seasons, Cleveland starts the massive rebuild of its offensive line. But was it worth it? I have a hard time seeing how.
With six offensive line free agents, the Browns are going to look significantly different in the trenches in 2026, and they’re right to jump on this right away. There’s a good chance the Browns will have a young, developing player at quarterback — be it Shedeur Sanders or someone else — and it’s critical to keep that player upright.
Howard’s exact role is unknown due to his flexibility and how the Browns’ address their other holes upfront, but right tackle seems like the safest bet since it’s where he has most frequently played.
Howard ranked in the 24th percentile in pass block win rate at tackle and the 31st percentile in run block win rate at tackle last season. He was also below average in both in 2024. That hasn’t always been the case — Howard ranked in the top 10 overall in pass block win rate at tackle in 2021 and 2022. But we’re several seasons removed from that, and he scored poorly in run blocking in each of those seasons.
So the Browns are likely getting a below-average starter. And he isn’t cheap. Howard was slated to make $17.5 million in 2026 (the final year of his deal) but is now signing a three-year, $63 million extension. While the details of that extension will matter quite a bit, Howard will be receiving hefty compensation from Cleveland.
The Browns sat at less than $1 million under the 2026 cap prior to this deal, per OverTheCap.com, though their cap obligations lighten quite a bit in 2027. But is this where they want to spend their resources, dealing a fifth-round pick to pay what might be an over-market deal for a below-average starter? That’s not how I’d want to kick off the offseason.
This continues a recent pattern of offensive line turnover for the Texans, but I don’t mind this move for them. Houston needs better blocking, both to protect quarterback C.J. Stroud and generate a running game to support him. It was last in the NFL (32nd) in run block win rate, 30th in pass block win rate and 26th in yards gained before contact on running back rushes last season.
Howard played both right tackle and left guard for the Texans, who have plenty of open spots along the offensive line, with both Ed Ingram and Trent Brown set to be free agents. They’ll need to add offensive line help at some point and must set aside money to pay edge rusher Will Anderson Jr — and probably Stroud, too. So getting a fifth-round pick to not pay Howard seems like good business.
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Jets get: DT T’Vondre Sweat
Titans get: Edge Jermaine Johnson
Jets grade: A-
Titans grade: C-
For all their faults, the Jets came out of last year’s trade deadline with two of the very best deals in that period. While hardly on the same scale, they kicked off the 2026 trade season with another shrewd move in swapping out Johnson for Sweat in a one-for-one swap.
The last of the Jets’ three 2022 first-round picks, Johnson put together one decent sack season in 2023, with 7.5 sacks en route to a Pro Bowl nod. That came while playing for current Titans head coach Robert Saleh, which I assume is a critical factor in why this deal was made.
But Johnson managed only 5.5 sacks over his other three seasons in New York, though he played just three games in 2024 due to an Achilles injury. Advanced pass-rushing metrics have not been kind to Johnson in his four-year career. His career pass rush win rate is only 8.4% (8.9% last season), while the average for a starting edge in that span is 15.6%.
Sweat, a 2024 second-round pick, has been a solid starting nose tackle for Tennessee. He should help the Jets’ run defense and provide some pass rush from the nose. While his 6.5% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average for the position, it’s not bad considering where he lines up. He’ll join a Jets interior group that includes Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs.
As for Johnson, the Titans need help at edge. But that need doesn’t make it worth the cost.
Johnson is playing on his fifth-year option and will cost Tennessee $13.4 million, per OverTheCap. By contrast, Sweat has two years left on his rookie deal and will cost the Jets just $1.6 and $2.1 million in each of those years, respectively. Sweat is also younger and, in my view, has a better chance to be a plus contributor than Johnson. That makes this deal well worth it for New York, especially considering the Jets will get a player with another year of team control for less money.
Sports
Colorado opts to practice, mourn death of Dominiq Ponder
BOULDER, Colo. — The Colorado Buffaloes told stories Monday, like how Dominiq Ponder once jumped a 10-foot fence to let a rehabbing teammate into the hot tub. They chatted about his work ethic, too, and how he was in the quarterback room before sunrise.
It was a chance to reflect on their teammate who died early Sunday morning in a single-car crash. He was 23.
The players were given the option by coach Deion Sanders to skip the first day of spring practice Monday. But in an emergency meeting the night before — to grieve together and comfort one another — everyone agreed that taking the field was the best option.
Because that’s what Ponder would’ve wanted. He was on their minds at practice as they broke the huddle with the chant of “Dom.”
“Almost like a boost of energy, like he was there with us,” running back DeKalon Taylor said. “That’s what it felt like.”
“I couldn’t move,” Marion said. “I was speechless talking to Dom’s dad.”
Ponder was driving a 2023 Tesla when he lost control on a curve and hit a guardrail, according to the Colorado State Patrol. The car struck an electrical line pole and rolled down an embankment. Ponder was pronounced dead at the scene in Boulder County. Police said a preliminary investigation “shows that speed is suspected as a factor.”
“God please comfort the Ponder family, friends & Loved ones,” Sanders posted Sunday on X. “Dom was one of my favorites! He was Loved, Respected & a Born Leader. Let’s pray for all that knew him & had the opportunity to be in his presence. Lord you’re receiving a good 1.”
Sanders is expected to address the media on Friday.
“It’s sad not being able to protect him [Ponder] off the field,” offensive lineman Yahya Attia said Monday. “I still don’t really realize it — I don’t want to believe it yet.”
Same with Taylor, who said Ponder was just showing off his new tattoo to him Friday. It was surreal being at practice without Ponder.
“Heavy at first,” Taylor said. “But we all bought in. We had no choice but to go hard for him. Everybody was running around and doing their best. And if we did mess up, we messed up at full speed.”
Because that’s how Ponder operated — at full speed. The backup QB and special teams player was a leader who learned how to guide a team by watching the likes of Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter.
“[Teammates] saw how hard [Ponder] worked, how hard he wanted it, to prove that he could play at the collegiate level and be a college quarterback,” Marion said of Ponder, a transfer from Bethune-Cookman. “In an era where you have to force people to work hard, you had to tell Dom to stop working so hard. Just being around a kid like that, his energy was contagious as far as his work ethic.”
It was difficult for Marion being in the quarterbacks room at 5:30 a.m., knowing that Ponder was always there by that time.
“We’ll just save a spot for him in the room,” Marion said.
The practice Monday wasn’t so much for quality of work purposes, but a chance to simply be together.
“We didn’t coach with the same urgency, as far as screaming at guys and losing our mind,” Marion said. “We coached like you would coach your child.”
Defensive back Ben Finneseth became tight with Ponder since the 6-foot-5 sophomore from Opa-locka, Florida, transferred into the program. He visited Ponder and his family over spring break a year ago.
“Everything that we’re going to do moving forward is for him,” Finneseth said. “It was tough, meeting together [Sunday], everybody, and knowing what happened. Coach Prime asked us if we wanted to work [Monday].
“We decided, as a team, Dom wouldn’t miss the day. He wouldn’t miss the day of workouts. That’s what he would’ve wanted for us. He would have said, ‘Life’s got to move on. We’ve got championships to win and we still have goals, and the clocks are still rolling.'”
Finneseth shared the story about how a few weeks ago they were hanging out at his apartment complex and wanted to use the hot tub. Finneseth, who’s rehabbing his knee, didn’t have the key so Ponder hopped over the tall fence to get them inside.
“Always there for teammates,” Finneseth said. “Whatever we needed.”
Defensive back RJ Johnson felt the same way.
“That’s what we have to do this season,” Johnson said. “Play for Dom.”
Sports
MLS Power Rankings: Miami surge after comeback win
It’s Monday, MLS action is back, and it’s time for ESPN’s Power Rankings.
Who looks the strongest? Who’s in for a long year? Our writers studied the action from across Matchday 2 to come up with this week’s order. Let’s dive in.
– Messi tracker: Goals, assists, key moments in 2026 for Miami and Argentina
– Can Africa’s players make an impact in MLS the way they have in the NWSL?
– Why is Mexico star Chucky Lozano being paid $6m to not play in MLS?
Previous ranking: 1
After a statement win over Miami on opening weekend, LAFC claimed another three points in a 2-0 road win over the Houston Dynamo. Courtesy of long-range efforts from Mark Delgado and Stephen Eustáquio, this LAFC side showed just how many ways they can beat you.

Previous ranking: 4
If there was any doubt about which Canadian club was the best in MLS (there wasn’t), the Caps put it to rest on Saturday in a resounding 3-0 win over Toronto. With Thomas Müller‘s brace leading the charge, Vancouver looked every bit as good as the team that made MLS Cup last year.

Previous ranking: 3
San Diego cruised to a 2-0 home win over St. Louis to close out the weekend’s slate of games. Along the way, Anders Dreyer, who scored the opener, became the second-fastest player in MLS history to record 20 goals and 20 assists behind only Lionel Messi.

Previous ranking: 7
Now that was more like it from the defending champions. After stumbling out of the gates against LAFC last weekend, Miami secured a dominant 4-2 road win over Orlando City. Javier Mascherano is still searching for a few answers when it comes to his team’s positioning, but no matter: Miami’s talent won the day on Sunday.

Previous ranking: 2
Missing Sam Surridge due to illness and balancing Concacaf Champions Cup play, Nashville put in a quiet performance in a 0-0 draw with Dallas on Saturday. The talent is obvious, but B.J. Callaghan’s group is still learning to play together.

Previous ranking: 8
Though the Revs put up a much tougher fight than Orlando did on opening weekend, the new-look Red Bull New York still collected a 1-0 victory against New England. The game’s lone goal? It came by way of three teenagers in Matthew Dos Santos, who found Adri Mehmeti to play the ball to scorer Julian Hall.

Previous ranking: 6
In one of the more disappointing results of the weekend, a nearly full-strength Sounders team outside of Jordan Morris fell to a short-handed Real Salt Lake outfit by a 2-1 scoreline. Cristian Roldan, who scored Seattle’s only goal, was a bright spot in an otherwise uninspiring showing.

Previous ranking: 14
With a goal from Kelvin Yeboah, Minnesota earned a hard-fought 1-0 win over Cincinnati. Though there’s still work to be done for the players to adapt to new manager Cameron Knowles’ more patient style of play, there was clear progress shown on Saturday.

Previous ranking: 13
Timo Werner made his debut for the Quakes and wasted no time impacting the game. The German star nabbed the final assist in San Jose’s 2-0 win over Atlanta United, capping off a busy week that saw him participate in his very first training sessions with the Earthquakes.

Previous ranking: 5
In Evander‘s injury-induced absence, FC Cincinnati’s attack looked listless on the road in Minnesota. They fell 1-0 without creating consistent danger in the final third. The sooner their Brazilian star gets back, the better.

Previous ranking: 12
Thanks to a last-gasp winner from Tayvon Gray in the 99th minute, NYCFC finessed a 2-1 road win over the Philadelphia Union. In all, Pascal Jansen’s attack looked more well-rounded than it did on opening weekend against the LA Galaxy.

Previous ranking: 23
Though they’re still nowhere near full strength, Salt Lake impressed in a 2-1 win over Seattle. The youngsters showed out, with goal contributions coming from 18-year-olds Aiden Hezarkhani and Zavier Gozo. Plus, new DP attacker Morgan Guilavogui shone in his debut off the bench. Something is brewing in Utah.
0:35
Ariath Piol scores goal for Real Salt Lake
Ariath Piol scores in the 47′

Previous ranking: 18
While the Galaxy’s attack was tepid to start the season against NYCFC, it was anything but in a 3-0 win over Charlotte FC on Saturday. Gabriel Pec ripped the visitor’s left side to shreds and the Galaxy never looked back after nabbing three goals in the first 13 minutes.

Previous ranking: 21
After taking the lead in the first half through a devastating transition attack slotted home by Jonathan Bamba, the Fire added two more goals even after going down to 10 men. Jonathan Dean‘s red card didn’t seem to slow down Chicago in a 3-0 win over Montréal.

Previous ranking: 17
The bad news? Dallas dropped points at home to Nashville in a 0-0 draw. The good news? New attacking midfielder Joaquín Valiente made his MLS debut, playing the final 30 minutes of the match. The best version of Dallas will feature the 24-year-old in the starting lineup.

Previous ranking: 19
Striker Wessam Abou Ali had a chance to score the game-winner from the penalty spot against Sporting Kansas City, but had his shot saved in a game that ended 2-2. The Crew left points on the board, which may well come back to bite in a competitive Eastern Conference.

Previous ranking: 10
The Dynamo conceded two goals and were shown two red cards in a game to forget against LAFC. The 2-0 home loss serves as a reminder of where Houston sit in the Western Conference hierarchy, even after a jam-packed offseason.

Previous ranking: 11
Make that two consecutive defeats in MLS play to begin the Union’s Supporters’ Shield defense. While it looked like Indiana Vassilev‘s 89th-minute penalty against NYCFC would close out the scoring on Sunday, a 99th-minute concession turned a would-be draw into a 2-1 loss.

Previous ranking: 15
While they didn’t concede many clear-cut chances, St. Louis simply didn’t have the attacking firepower to go toe-to-toe with San Diego. Yoann Damet’s team fell 2-0 on Sunday and will continue searching for the first win of the club’s new era.

Previous ranking: 9
The Timbers were outshot and outcreated in a 2-0 road loss to the Rapids on Saturday. Plenty seems to be resting on DP David Da Costa to return and immediately elevate Phil Neville’s attacking setup.

Previous ranking: 22
New striker signing Christian Ramírez made the difference for Austin in a 1-0 home victory over D.C. United. After the veteran No. 9 was waived by the Galaxy, Austin signed him as a depth option late last week. That depth came in handy on Sunday.

Previous ranking: 16
After 13 minutes, Charlotte had conceded three goals to the LA Galaxy. That’s where the bleeding stopped, fortunately enough. Still, Charlotte looked sloppy in possession and sluggish out of possession. That Dean Smith benched both of his starting central midfielders at halftime tells the story of Charlotte’s 3-0 loss.

Previous ranking: 20
D.C. managed just three shots from inside the box in a dire 1-0 loss to Austin FC on Sunday. They would benefit from Louis Munteanu entering the starting lineup, but the 23-year-old DP came off the bench for the second-straight week instead.

Previous ranking: 27
They struggled against one Cascadia team on opening weekend, but Colorado looked much improved in a 2-0 win over the Portland Timbers on Saturday. With effective set-piece play and control in both attack and defense, it was a deserved victory for the Rapids.
1:13
Colorado Rapids vs. Portland Timbers – Game Highlights
Colorado Rapids vs. Portland Timbers – Game Highlights

Previous ranking: 24
Despite some promising attacking play from Marco Pašalić and Martín Ojeda that saw Orlando take a 2-0 lead over Miami, Oscar Pareja’s short-handed defense was simply too leaky. They shipped four unanswered goals in a 4-2 defeat.

Previous ranking: 26
Toronto FC fans will want to push the team’s 3-0 loss to Vancouver out of their minds as quickly as possible in favor of a happier piece of news: Josh Sargent is officially a Toronto player. The striker should quickly become the focal point of Robin Fraser’s attack.

Previous ranking: 25
Outside of new defensive midfielder Tomás Jacob, things look bleak for Atlanta. The attack was, once again, toothless while the defense looked gappy in a 2-0 loss to the San Jose Earthquakes. Tata Martino has his work cut out for him.

Previous ranking: 29
Kansas City needed a late penalty save from goalkeeper John Pulskamp to preserve a 2-2 home draw with Columbus, but you won’t catch them grumbling about a point. With a roster still heavily under construction, keeping on level terms with the Crew was nothing short of impressive.

Previous ranking: 28
The Revs looked downright toothless in a 1-0 loss to Red Bull New York. They posted just five shots, barely troubling Ethan Horvath despite having a nearly full-strength lineup at Marko Mitrović’s disposal. It’s early days, but it’s not too early to worry about New England.

Previous ranking: 30
There’s no more uninspiring club in MLS than CF Montréal, who lost 3-0 to the Chicago Fire. Up a man for most of the second half, Montréal managed to concede twice rather than work their way back into the match. This team isn’t going anywhere.
Sports
Most vs. least predictable men’s conference tournaments
March is here, and you know what that means: The Madness is upon us.
What better way to get ready for the men’s NCAA tournament than warming up with a couple of weeks of conference tournament action?
Champ Week never disappoints. In 2024, we saw five bid thieves crash the Big Dance, while 51 of the 63 conference tournaments in 2023 and 2025 were won by Nos. 1 or 2 seeds. And while we can likely agree that past trends are not necessarily indicative of future results, it’s fun to analyze which conference tournaments have featured the most and least chaos in recent history.
Because the membership of many conferences has changed with realignment, the primary focus will be on results from the past five seasons, though some trends that go further back were too juicy to ignore.
Because there are many ways to characterize the volatility of a specific conference tournament, here is a sampling of the factors that were taken into consideration:
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Average seed of the champion
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Combined average seed of the finalists
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How often the top-seeded teams lose their first game
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How often a lower-seeded team makes a deep run
Now let’s break it down, starting with the conference tournaments that have been friendly to higher seeds in recent years.
Note: Conferences ordered under each category by tournament start date. Averages shown are since 2021, unless otherwise noted.

TOURNAMENTS THAT HAVE FAVORED HIGHER SEEDS

West Coast Conference
No conference tournament has been more predictable than the WCC — and that’s not just over the past five years.
The top two seeds have met in the finals in 16 of the past 17 WCC tournaments. In 13 of those 16, it has been Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s. The only other team to make the finals in that span is BYU, which is no longer a conference member. (And by the way, the top two seeds in this year’s edition are Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s once again.)
Gonzaga, in its final season in the WCC before joining the new-look Pac-12 in 2026-27, has reached the championship game a ridiculous 28 consecutive years; the Bulldogs are always a No. 1 or 2 seed.
While the top two seeds have received a bye to the semis in 18 of the past 23 WCC tourneys, other leagues also reward their best teams this way without anywhere close to the same predictability.

Missouri Valley Conference
Despite a traditional bracket setup — there are no byes to the semis in Arch Madness — the top two seeds have faced off in the title game three straight times and in four of the past five years.
Drake has won the past three MVC tournaments, but the Bulldogs have their work cut out for them as this year’s 9-seed. They would have to beat the 1-seeded Belmont in the quarterfinals, which has been a near-impossibility in the MVC: The Nos. 1 and 2 seeds have lost in the quarters only once each in the past 27 tourneys — and it happened in the same year (2020).

America East
The higher seeds playing host has its benefits here: The championship game has been 1-vs.-2 or 1-vs.-3 in 10 of the past 11 seasons — including 2020, when the matchup was set before the tournament was cut short due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The America East and Summit League have the longest current streaks of the No. 1 seed raising the trophy (four straight seasons).

Southland Conference
Since changing the format to give the top two seeds a bye to the semifinals in 2013, the Southland tournament hasn’t featured many surprises: At least one of the top two seeds has reached the championship game every year since.
The No. 1 seed has won in three straight years, and either the 1- or 2-seed has raised the trophy 10 of the past 13 tournaments. The most notable upset during this stretch came in 2022, when No. 4 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (7-7 in Southland play) upset the top two seeds en route to the title.

Big 12
Four different programs have won the past four championships, but each have been Nos. 1 or 2 seeds, and only once in the past 10 tournaments has the runner-up been seeded fourth or worse.
Iowa State is the only school in Big 12 tournament history (since 1997) to win the title seeded lower than No. 3, and it has done it three times: twice as a No. 4 and once as a No. 5.

Ivy League
It’s important to note that only the Ivy’s top four teams qualify for the tournament, so the title game has been No. 1 vs. No. 2 in five of the past six seasons. The No. 2 seed had won five consecutive Ivy Madness titles until last year, when top-seeded Yale earned the conference’s auto-bid by beating — you guessed it — 2-seed Cornell.
Want more predictability? Yale has been a fixture, winning four of the past five tournaments and reaching the championship game six of the seven times the event has been held.
The tournament is hosted by a different league institution each year, and each of the past three times the host school qualified for the tourney, it won. This year’s host? Cornell, which will be the No. 4 seed.

TOURNAMENTS THAT HAVE FAVORED LOWER SEEDS

Sun Belt
The Sun Belt is the only conference in which the No. 1 seed has not made it to the championship game in the past five years (2019 is the last time it happened).
This is Year 2 of the most interesting bracket you’ll see during Champ Week, which takes place over seven days and was likely conceived to improve the chances of top seeds earning the automatic bid. That didn’t work last year, as the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds lost their first game. In fact, the 1-seed has lost its first game in the Sun Belt tourney an astounding four of the past five years.
This season, there was no clear top team in conference play. Troy went 12-6 to earn the No. 1 seed, but there was a remarkable six-way tie for second place at 11-7, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all if these trends continue.
An unintended consequence of the quirky Sun Belt bracket: No. 7 seed Arkansas State has to win five games to earn the automatic bid, while No. 2 seed Marshall has to win only two — despite the fact that both teams had the same record in Sun Belt play.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Not to be outdone by the ACC, the MAAC has been a free-for-all. At least one team seeded fourth or worse has reached the title game in eight straight tournaments. Last year, a 6-seed (Mount St. Mary’s) grabbed the auto-bid; in 2023, 11-seed Marist won three games to reach the finals; and in 2021, we had a rare 9-vs.-7 matchup in the championship game (Iona over Fairfield).
Of the 10 finalists from the past five years, eight different seeds have been represented. The No. 1 seed has struggled mightily, losing twice in the quarterfinals (2021 and 2022) and twice in the semifinals (2024 and 2025). It has been 10 years since the last title game between the top two seeds.

Coastal Athletic Association
It might seem like the CAA tournament has been chalky, with Nos. 1 and 2 seeds representing the past three champs, but the bigger picture is more complicated.
From 2012 to 2019, every team that reached the finals was seeded third or better. There were very few surprises and, more often than not, it was a 1-vs.-2 matchup for the title. Over the past five years, though, there has been plenty of variability: Only once has a No. 1 seed advanced to the championship, and at least one team seeded fourth or worse has made it. There was a 6-vs.-8 championship in 2021, No. 7 Stony Brook lost to top-seeded Charleston in overtime in 2024, and No. 12 Delaware won four games before falling just short of the title in 2025.

ACC
The ACC tournament has featured interesting results in recent years. You likely remember 10-seed NC State winning five games in five days to steal a bid in 2024. And the three years before that, teams seeded fourth (Duke), seventh (Virginia Tech) and fourth (Georgia Tech) emerged as surprise champions.
When you see lower-seeded champs like this, you might expect it’s because they faced another Cinderella type, but that has not been the case. In fact, the runner-up has been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in five straight years. Last year was an outlier, as the top two seeds met in the title game for only the second time since 2012, with Duke defeating Louisville.

TOURNAMENTS WITH MIXED RESULTS

Patriot League
It’s a different structure in the Patriot League — the higher seed hosts each game throughout — but there are similarities to the SoCon for the eventual champs and runners-up.
The past five Patriot champions have been 1- or 2-seeds. Meanwhile, four of the past five losers in the title game were seeded fifth, sixth, sixth and ninth. Last year, 5-seed Navy knocked off 1-seed Bucknell in the semifinals. This year, the shoe is on the other foot: Navy will have the bull’s-eye as the No. 1 seed trying to earn its first NCAA tournament bid since 1998 after a dominant regular season (17-1).

Southern Conference
No conference screams “mixed results” like the SoCon.
When 6-seed Wofford won the 2025 championship game, it snapped a streak of seven straight years in which the No. 1 seed won the title (including 2020). Wofford was the sixth different program to win the tournament in as many years.
The SoCon tourney rarely lacks drama, as the average seed of the runner-up (5.6) is tied for the second highest in the past five years. Where things have gone sideways is in the 2-vs.-7 and 3-vs.-6 quarterfinal matchups:
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The No. 7 seed has beaten the No. 2 seed in each of the past three years, and five of the past six.
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No. 7 seeds have reached the championship game an incredible four times in those six years.
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The No. 6 seed has beaten the No. 3 seed in four of the past six years.

MORE TRENDS
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Atlantic 10 Conference (A-10): The past six titles have been won by the No. 1 or No. 6 seed (three each). Eight of the past 11 championships have been won by a team seeded third or worse. And No. 2 seeds have reached the title game in seven of the past 11 years but have no championships to show for it.
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The No. 1 or No. 2 seed has won 13 of the past 14 Big Sky tournaments, but last year was the first time they both reached the final since 2016.
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The Big Ten has gone 17 straight tournaments without a 1-vs.-2 matchup in the title game (the last was in 2007). The next-longest drought is eight straight (MAAC).
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We have had four different Big West tournament champions in as many years. The last time a team seeded fifth or worse made it to the title game was 2015.
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Conference USA (C-USA) and the Northeast Conference (NEC) have had a different school win their tournaments eight straight times, tying for the second-longest streak in the past 100 seasons of college basketball. Only the Southern Conference (nine straight from 1927 to 1935) had a longer run. There is no doubt that changes in conference membership have played a role for both.
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Also in the NEC: A No. 3 seed (Saint Francis) won the tournament in what was the first time a 3-seed reached the title game since 2013. Last year also marked the first time the No. 2 seed didn’t lose in the championship game since 2019, snapping a streak of five straight years (including 2020, when the conference completed its tournament).
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Ohio Valley Conference (OVC): The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals, but exactly one of them has lost its first game in three of the past four years — this year’s top two seeds are Tennessee State and Morehead State. The No. 1 seed has just one championship in the past five years.
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The No. 1 seed in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) has won the title only once in the past five years and has lost its first game in two of the past three years.
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