Politics
Mamdani seen holding lead over Cuomo in New York City mayoral race, say analysts
- Mamdani leads Cuomo in polls, backed by endorsements and small donors.
- Cuomo’s campaign could gain from Adams’s exit, attracting business donors.
- Trump’s attacks on Mamdani may boost his appeal among New Yorkers.
NEW YORK: The decision by New York City Mayor Eric Adams to suspend his sputtering reelection bid is unlikely to slow the upstart candidacy of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, political analysts said on Monday.
Mamdani, a 33-year-old Uganda-born state assembly member, has polled well ahead of his main rival, former New York state Governor Andrew Cuomo, with five weeks to go before Election Day, and persistent attacks by President Donald Trump may only serve to burnish Mamdani’s image with New Yorkers opposed to the president’s policies.
Since he scored a stunning upset in the June primary to become the Democratic Party’s standard bearer in the November 4 general election, Mamdani’s candidacy has been on a roll, winning endorsements from party holdouts such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and a steady stream of financial backing from small donors.
Adams confirmed weeks of speculation on Sunday by announcing he was suspending his independent bid for a second term. He had decided against seeking the Democratic nomination in June.
His departure creates what is essentially a two-candidate race between Mamdani and Cuomo, a veteran of New York politics attempting to make a comeback after his 2021 resignation as governor amid sexual harassment allegations. Cuomo is running as an independent after his loss in the June Democratic primary.
Mamdani “is well ahead of Cuomo and something would have to dramatically change the narrative of the race for there to be a shift in the polling to suggest Mamdani could lose, and I don’t see that happening right now,” said Basil Smikle, political analyst and professor at Columbia University’s School of Professional Studies.
Mamdani on Monday said he was not interested in commenting on what Adams’ departure meant for his campaign.
“A lot of the focus has been on the question of the impact it may have on Election Day, what it means for the horse race,” he told reporters at a campaign event in uptown Manhattan. “What it loses sight of is that for New Yorkers who are struggling to afford the most expensive city in the United States of America, nothing has changed.”
Before Sunday’s news, a Marist University poll showed Mamdani leading with 45% support, compared with around 24% for Cuomo. Adams, who withdrew too late to remove his name from the ballot, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trailed with 9% and 17%, respectively.
While no new polls have been conducted since Adams dropped out, a Marist poll released September 16 asked potential voters to consider that possibility. It showed Mamdani would receive the support of 46% of likely voters compared with 30% for Cuomo and 18% for Sliwa. That suggests the benefits to Cuomo from Adams’ departure would help the former governor, but not enough to narrow Mamdani’s lead significantly.
Trump attacks Mamdani again
Adams’ bid for reelection had been plagued from the start.
Elected during the pandemic, his popularity withered amid a steady drumbeat of corruption allegations involving himself and his associates. He became the first sitting mayor in New York history to be indicted on federal bribery charges.
The mayor pleaded not guilty, but Trump’s Justice Department dropped the case, saying it interfered with the mayor’s ability to support the president’s aggressive deportation agenda. That angered many New Yorkers, who overwhelmingly say they oppose the president’s policies.
On Sunday, Trump welcomed the mayor’s move, saying it gave Cuomo a “much better chance” by concentrating the anti-Mamdani vote.
On Monday, Trump then reacted with another attack on Mamdani. In a social media post, he said Mamdani “needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfill all of his FAKE Communist promises. He won’t be getting any of it, so what’s the point of voting for him?”
Christina Greer, a political science professor at Fordham University in New York, says such threats may backfire, giving an unintended boost to Mamdani.
“The president makes miscalculations,” she said. “The more he tries to meddle in this race, the more it highlights the fact that actually we do want this type of representation because there’s such a draconian backlash coming from Washington, DC.”
Mamdani maintained his solid edge on Cuomo in fund-raising over the summer, having collected some $15 million versus $9 million for the former governor on the strength of a record number of small donations, according to the most recent data, which included August disclosures.
To be sure, Cuomo’s campaign could benefit from Adams’ departure if donations pick up again from powerful business interests concerned about Mamdani’s progressive agenda, which focuses on affordability issues at the expense of wealthy New Yorkers.
Before the primary, big donors poured millions of dollars into the pro-Cuomo political action committee Fix the City, which operates independently of direct campaign funding.
“We have seen an uptick in interest from donors and supporters over the past 24 hours and will be working to maximise our resources to ensure that Andrew Cuomo is elected in November,” said a source familiar with the PAC’s planning but unauthorised to speak on the record.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was martyred in US and Israeli strikes, state media confirmed, as another wave of attacks hit the country on Sunday.
Several countries, global bodies and prominent groups responded to the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, urging de-escalation.
Pakistan
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Sunday denounced the targeting of Iran’s supreme leader in joint strikes by the United States and Israel, saying such actions were a “violation of the norms of international law”.
In a post on X, PM Shehbaz said that it was an age-old convention that the heads of state or government should not be targeted.
“Pakistan also expresses concern over the violation of the norms of international law. It is an age-old convention that the heads of state/government should not be targeted.”
Russia
President Vladimir Putin described Khamenei’s killing as a “cynical murder” that violated “all standards of human morality and international law”.
“Please accept my deep condolences in connection with the murder of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei, and members of his family, committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.”
China
China said it “strongly condemns” the United States and Israel’s assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling again for a halt to military actions.
The assassination was “a serious violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security, a trampling on the aims and principles of the UN Charter and the basic norms of international relations”, Beijing’s foreign ministry said in a statement.
“China firmly opposes and strongly condemns this,” it added, calling for an “immediate halting of military operations”.
Malaysia
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Sunday “unreservedly” condemned the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“I unreservedly condemn the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This act places the Middle East on the edge of grave and sustained instability. I extend my condolences to the Islamic Republic of Iran and to the Iranian people at this profoundly difficult momen,” wrote
Indonesia’s Ulema Muslim Clerical Council
“The Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) expressed its deepest condolences for the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, as a result of the Israeli-American attack on February 28.
“The United States, which is playing a central role in managing the Palestinian conflict through the BoP (Board of Peace), faces a major question: is this strategy truly aimed at a just peace, or is it actually strengthening an unequal security architecture and burying Palestinian independence? Therefore, the MUI urges the Indonesian government to revoke its membership from the BoP.”
North Korea
North Korea condemned the US and Israeli strikes as an “illegal act of aggression”.
The attacks “constitute a thoroughly illegal act of aggression and the most vile form of violation of sovereignty in their nature”, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said, according to state media.
Iranian president
“The martyrdom of the Supreme Leader at the hands of Israel and the criminal America was a great disaster for our country… America and Israel should know that it will bring them nothing but embarrassment.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Sunday claimed it had launched ballistic missile strikes targeting a US aircraft carrier, identifying the vessel as the USS Abraham Lincoln, as part of what it called “Operation True Promise 4.”
In a statement, the IRGC’s public relations office said four ballistic missiles were fired at the carrier, adding that Iran’s military campaign had entered a “new phase.” The group warned that both land and sea would become the “burial place” for what it described as aggressors.
Multiple Waves of Strikes Announced
Earlier, the IRGC said it had launched the seventh and eighth waves of strikes under the same operation, in response to what it termed ongoing aggression by the United States and Israel.
Iran claimed it had carried out precision strikes on military targets in Israeli territory, including areas near Tel Aviv and Haifa. It also alleged that Israeli officials had taken shelter due to heightened security concerns.
Targets Across the Gulf
The IRGC further stated that it had targeted US-operated facilities in West Asia, including the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, as well as installations in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
There has been no immediate confirmation from US or Israeli officials regarding the reported missile strikes or the extent of any damage.
Rising Regional Tensions
The developments mark a sharp escalation in regional tensions following reported military exchanges between Iran, Israel and US forces over the weekend.
Independent verification of the claims remains pending, and international observers have urged restraint amid fears of a broader conflict across the Middle East.
A number of Iranian senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have embraced martyrdom in the “unprovoked and unwarranted” airstrikes by Israel and the United States.
As crowds gathered in Tehran, explosions rang out, and the Israeli military announced that it was again striking targets in the heart of the city — as more blasts were heard in Jerusalem, Riyadh, Dubai, Doha and Manama.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian declared Khamenei’s assassination a “declaration of war against Muslims” and warned: “Iran considers it its legitimate duty and right to avenge the perpetrators and masterminds of this historic crime.”
Iranian state media have confirmed the killing of several senior figures:
1. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of Iran
2. Ali Shamkhani, representative of the Supreme Leader in the Supreme Defence Council
3. General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Iran’s Armed Forces chief of staff
4. Major General Mohammad Pakpour, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)
5. Aziz Nasirzadeh, Minister of Defence
6. Gholamreza Rezaian, police intelligence chief of Iran
Separately, the daughter, son-in-law, and granddaughter of Ali Khamenei also embraced martyrdom in the US and Israeli airstrikes.
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