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Oil jumps 10% and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts warn

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Oil jumps 10% and could spike to 0 a barrel, analysts warn


Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.

The primary driver of this market volatility is the critical Strait of Hormuz. Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS, stated: “While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.”

Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20% of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz.

“We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait,” Parmar said.

Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel, said RBC analyst Helima Croft. Barclays analysts also said prices could hit $100.

Cargo ships and tankers are seen off coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026. (Photo by Giuseppe CACACE / AFP via Getty Images) (AFP via Getty Images)

The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2% of global demand.

While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8 million to 10 million bpd of crude oil supply even after diverting some flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi pipeline, said Rystad energy economist Jorge Leon.

Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel when trade opens.

The Iran crisis also prompted Asian governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles and alternative shipping routes and supplies.



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Elon Musk-Sam Altman trial: Tech billionaires take their toxic AI row to court

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Elon Musk-Sam Altman trial: Tech billionaires take their toxic AI row to court



The battle between the AI big hitters has largely played out on social media. Now it is coming to the courtroom.



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Shell strikes £12.1 billion deal to buy Canadian energy firm

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Shell strikes £12.1 billion deal to buy Canadian energy firm



Shell has agreed a 16.4 billion US dollar (£12.1 billion) deal to buy Canadian energy firm ARC Resources in a bid to boost its gas production and reserves.

The British energy giant said the acquisition will strengthen its resource base “for decades to come”.

It will also strengthen the business’s presence in North America, where it already operates gas plants.

The deal will combine ARC’s more than 1.5 million net acres of land with Shell’s approximately 440,000 in the Montney gas resource in Canada.

It will increase Shell’s production growth rate from 1% to 4% through to 2030, compared with 2025, according to the firm.

Shell’s chief executive Wael Sawan said acquiring the “high quality, low-cost” energy business “strengthens our resource base for decades to come”.

He added: “We are accessing uniquely positioned assets and welcoming colleagues that bring deep expertise which, combined with Shell’s strong basin level performance, provides a compelling proposition for shareholders.

“This establishes Canada as a heartland for Shell while furthering our strategy to deliver more value with less emissions.”

Shell has been carrying out a new growth strategy focused on extracting more oil and gas, moving from a focus on green energy and reducing spending on renewables.

It hopes the shift will support production targets and drive greater returns for investors.

The announcement comes a few weeks after Shell said it had cut its gas production outlook for the first quarter of 2026 after being affected by the conflict in the Middle East.

The energy giant trimmed its guidance for integrated gas production after volumes from Qatar were particularly affected during recent attacks.

The deal will see ARC’s shareholders receive 8.20 Canadian dollars (£4.50) and about 0.4 Shell shares for each ARC share.

Including about 2.8 billion US dollars (£2.1 billion) in debt that Shell will take on, the acquisition is valued at about 16.4 billion US dollars (£12.1 billion).

It is expected to complete in the second half of 2026, subject to shareholder, court and regulatory approvals.



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BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war

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BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war


BP has come under fire after revealing profits more than doubled in the first three months of the year, thanks to the soaring cost of crude caused by the Iran war.

Chief executive Meg O’Neill praised the quarter as sending the firm “in the right direction” and “strengthening the balance sheet” – but critics have labelled the energy giant’s revenues as “horrifying” as “millions suffer the fallout” from war.

The FTSE 100 firm revealed its preferred profit measure – underlying replacement cost profit – surged by over 130% to a better-than-expected $3.2bn (£2.4bn) in the first quarter, up from $1.38bn (£1.02bn) a year earlier and $1.54bn (£1.13bn) in the previous three months. Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of $2.67bn (£1.97bn).

Campaigners accused the group of profiting at the expense of households, who have seen fuel prices rocket at the pumps and are set to see energy bills jump higher once more when the price cap is next updated on July 1.

The price of oil has risen from the mid-$60s range in February to over $100 now, spiking close to $120 several times during the course of the Iran war.

Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at campaigning organisation Global Witness, said: “It is horrifying to see BP’s profits grow as millions suffer the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran. Unfortunately we’ve been here before – when Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago we saw big oil firms make bumper profits from spiralling fuel costs.  

“As oil prices drive up bills once again, it’s clear that fossil fuel companies don’t enhance affordability or energy security, they make life worse. They destroy the climate, push up the cost of living, and rake in billions in profit while innocent civilians die.

“It’s well overdue that we make oil companies pay for the damage their doing. If they broke it, they need to fix it. It’s clear they can afford to. BP profits, we all pay.”

Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, added: “Just as we saw in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fossil fuel giants are quids in when global instability drastically inflates fuel prices.

Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of 2.67 billion dollars (£1.97 billion) (PA)

“But again, it’s ordinary people who pay the price when soaring energy prices threaten to plunge the UK into an even deeper cost-of-living crisis.”

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition called for a windfall tax on firms profiting from the Iran-related energy crisis.

The campaign group’s co-ordinator Simon Francis said: “These astronomical profits are a startling reminder that when conflict drives up the price of oil and gas, energy companies profit and households pay.”

BP’s new chief executive Meg O’Neill, who took over at the helm on April 1, said the group was ensuring fuel supplies are met across the UK.

She said: “The teams across BP are playing their part to keep oil, gas and refined products flowing during an incredibly challenging time – focused on maintaining safe, reliable and cost-efficient operations.”

She added: “We are working with customers and governments to get fuel where it’s needed, helping minimise disruption and the impact it can have on people’s lives.”

Ms O’Neill took over from Murray Auchincloss, who himself served only two years in the role after succeeeding Bernard Looney’s three-year tenure. Prior to the recent regular changes, Bob Dudley spent a full decade in the job up to 2020.

BP have struggled with strategy direction and the transition to clean energy, first doubling down on their green plan before an abrupt about-face turn.

In share price terms, the results saw BP rise 2.5 per cent in early trading on Tuesday, adding to a surge of more than 28 per cent in the past three months alone, as investors watched a soaring oil price and predicted the profits to come.

“In February, BP announced it was halting share buybacks as weak oil prices hurt profitability. How times change,” said Freetrade’s investment writer, Duncan Ferris.

“The firm has been among the best-performing supermajors since the escalation of conflict in Iran. Higher oil prices, and the opportunities they offer to the company’s traders, have breathed life into a stock battered by faltering low-carbon projects and investor unrest.”

Oil prices have raced higher since the US-Israel war on Iran started on February 28 and are now more than 60% up so far this year.

Brent crude reached close to 120 dollars a barrel at one stage and, despite falling back, is still above the 100 dollars level as peace talks falter and amid fears over a looming global energy supply crisis.

BP’s update showed its customers and products division – including its oil trading unit – reported profits of 2.5 billion (£1.84 billion), compared with 1.4 billion dollars (£1.03 billion) in the previous quarter and just 103 million dollars (£76.2 million) a year ago as traders were able to capitalise on highly volatile oil prices.

Additional reporting by PA



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