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IMF warns global debt could hit 123% of GDP by decade’s end, nearing WWII levels | The Express Tribune
Warns of possible “disorderly” market correction that could trigger fiscal-financial “doom loop”
Global public debt is projected to rise above 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2029, reaching its highest level since 1948 and continuing to climb, the IMF said on Wednesday, urging countries to build up buffers to guard against economic risks, Reuters reported.
Vitor Gaspar, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s fiscal affairs department, said global public debt levels could soar as high as 123% of GDP by the end of the decade under an “adverse, but plausible scenario,” just under the all-time high of 132% reached just after World War Two.
“From our viewpoint, the most concerning situation would be one in which there would be financial turmoil,” he said in an interview, citing a separate IMF report released on Tuesday that warned of a possible “disorderly” market correction.
That could unleash a fiscal-financial “doom loop”, like the one that occurred during the European sovereign debt crisis that began in 2010, Gaspar said.
Concerns over new US-China trade war
The IMF this week edged up its 2025 global growth forecast given a more benign impact from tariffs, although it warned that a renewed US-China trade war – which escalated after the numbers were locked in – could slow output significantly.
Gaspar said the highly uncertain outlook made fiscal reforms more important than ever, and the IMF was urging both advanced economies and developing countries to reduce their debt levels, cut deficits and build up buffers.
“With quite significant risks on the horizon, it’s important to be prepared, and preparation requires having fiscal buffers that allow authorities to respond to severe adverse shocks in the eventuality of a financial crisis,” he said.
Previous research by the IMF showed that countries with more fiscal space were better able to limit damage to employment and economic activity in the event of severe adverse shocks combined with a financial crisis, said Gaspar.
In its latest Fiscal Monitor, the IMF noted that rich economies had public debt levels already greater than 100% of GDP, or projected to surpass that level, including the United States, Canada, China, France, Italy, Japan and Britain.
Their risk is considered low-to-moderate since these countries have deep sovereign bond markets and more policy choices, while many emerging markets and low-income countries have fewer resources and face higher borrowing costs, despite their relatively low debt ratios.
Borrowing is far more expensive now than the period between the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the pandemic that began in 2020, Gaspar said. Rising interest rates are pressuring budgets at a time when demands are high due to geopolitical tensions, increasing natural disasters, disruptive technologies and aging populations.
“While we do recognise that the fiscal equation is very hard to square politically, the time to prepare is now,” he wrote in a forward to the fiscal monitor, noting that targeted public spending for education and infrastructure could boost GDP.
Investing in human capital could boost growth
Allocating just one percentage point of GDP from current spending to education or other human capital investment could boost GDP by more than 3% by 2050 in advanced economies, and almost twice as much in emerging market and developing economies, the IMF said.
In the US, public debt to GDP surpassed the post-World War Two peak during the Covid pandemic, and it is projected to surpass 140% of GDP by the end of the decade, Gaspar said.
He said IMF officials would urge US authorities to stabilise debt by shrinking the budget deficit during an upcoming review of the US economy that starts next month.
Cutting the US deficit would help rebalance the US economy, while freeing resources for the private sector in the US and around the world, helping to lower interest rates and making financing conditions more favourable, Gaspar said.
China’s public debt was also rising sharply, surging from 88.3% of GDP to an expected 113% by 2029, said the IMF, which is also planning a regular review of China’s economy next month.
NEW DELHI: People with job cards assigned under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Guarantee Scheme will be able to get work without disruption when transition takes place to new rural employment framework under Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Aajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act.Even though exact timeframe is not known yet, rural development ministry officials said the VB-G RAM G scheme will come into force in the coming financial year after the Centre frames and notifies the rules. After govt notifies the Act’s commencement date, states will get six months to make their schemes to enable implementation of the law.To ensure there is no disruption and job guarantee is upheld during transition from MGNREGA, it has been proposed to enable workers to use the same job cards issued under MGNREGA with Aadhaar-based eKYC.The officials said that as of now, around 75% of job cards have been verified with eKYC under the ongoing scheme. Moreover, ongoing projects under MGNREGA, if incomplete when the transition happens to the new scheme, would stay on course.Meanwhile, work is on to frame rules, lay out regulations on normative allocations, fund flow plan, IT framework, a national-level steering panel and social audits.Under the new law, focus will be on transparency to weed out leakages and duplicacy of work,the social audit system will be strengthened, and technology leveraged to create systems to establish work progress, timely wage payment and accountability through ‘e-measurement’ books, sources said. Demand for work will have to be entered on a digital platform. Officials made it clear the new law in no way interferes with demand-driven character of the scheme.
Business
Gurugram Attracts Rs 86,588 Crore In Real Estate Investments In 2025 As RERA Clears 131 Projects
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Alongside rising investments, Gurugram RERA strengthened regulatory oversight to safeguard homebuyer and investor interests
Gurgaon Real Estate (Representative Image)
Gurugram emerged as one of India’s top real estate investment destinations in 2025, with projects worth Rs 86,588 crore receiving regulatory approvals during the year, according to data from the Gurugram Real Estate Regulatory Authority (Gurugram RERA).
Market observers said the numbers reflect strong investor confidence in the NCR’s largest commercial and residential hub.
Gurugram RERA registered 131 projects in calendar year 2025, representing development potential of 35,455 units across housing and commercial segments.
A striking feature of the data was the dominance of large-ticket projects. Just 28 major developments accounted for investments worth Rs 59,360 crore, highlighting the growing influence of institutional capital and large developers in shaping Gurugram’s property market.
Residential assets continued to attract the bulk of investment interest. Of the total units approved, 31,455 were residential, underscoring sustained end-user demand and long-term confidence in the city’s housing fundamentals.
According to Authority data, the residential mix included 17,405 group housing units, 5,720 mixed land use units, 4,040 residential floor units, 2,122 affordable group housing units, 1,954 units under the Deen Dayal housing scheme, and 214 residential plotted colony units.
Market observers said this diversified supply pipeline indicates capital deployment across both premium and mass segments, helping reduce concentration risk and deepen market resilience.
On the commercial side, Gurugram RERA approved about 4,000 commercial units, of which 168 were dedicated to IT parks, reinforcing Gurugram’s position as a preferred hub for technology firms and Global Capability Centres.
Analysts noted that the combination of office-led employment growth and residential expansion continues to make Gurugram attractive for long-term capital deployment.
Industry experts said the scale of investments approved in 2025 highlights Gurugram’s ability to attract capital despite global uncertainty, supported by infrastructure growth, a strong corporate base and an improving regulatory environment.
“With a large pipeline of approved projects and sustained interest from developers and institutional investors, Gurugram is expected to remain a key real estate investment destination in the coming years,” a Gurugram-based real estate expert said.
Tighter regulatory checks
Alongside rising investments, Gurugram RERA strengthened regulatory oversight to enhance transparency and safeguard homebuyer and investor interests.
“These steps included stricter scrutiny of developer submissions, mandatory site inspections by domain experts, and public consultation through mandatory notices before project registration,” an Authority official said.
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January 16, 2026, 07:44 IST
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National Startup Day highlights India’s thriving startup ecosystem, celebrating innovation, entrepreneurship and job creation driven by founders, unicorns and Startup India mission
National Startup Day 2026 honours Indian startups, entrepreneurs and innovators driving economic growth and job creation.
National Startup Day 2026: India’s startup ecosystem has evolved into one of the world’s most vibrant and promising innovation hubs. To recognise the contribution of entrepreneurs, founders and startups transforming ideas into impactful solutions, National Startup Day is observed every year on January 16 across the country.
Launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2022, the day celebrates visionary entrepreneurs who play a crucial role in economic growth, employment generation and technological advancement.
National Startup Day serves as a reminder that innovation, backed by determination and policy support, can reshape society and create global impact.
National Startup Day 2026 Theme
The official theme for National Startup Day 2026 is yet to be announced. However, the core focus areas are expected to revolve around:
- Innovation and emerging technologies
- Entrepreneurship and leadership
- Self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat)
- Startup India Mission
- Youth empowerment
- Job creation
How Startups Are Shaping India’s Future
India currently ranks as the third-largest startup ecosystem globally, with over 1.59 lakh startups recognised by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) as of early 2025. Backed by 100+ unicorns, the ecosystem continues to grow rapidly.
Metro cities such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Delhi-NCR lead this expansion, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities are emerging as new innovation centres, adding diversity and scale to India’s entrepreneurial journey.
Startups across fintech, edtech, health-tech, e-commerce and deep-tech are addressing real-world challenges and gaining global recognition. Technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and IoT are increasingly driving innovation, according to Startup India ecosystem reports.
Industry-Wise Startup Impact
DPIIT-recognised startups have generated over 16.6 lakh direct jobs across sectors as of October 31, 2024, strengthening India’s employment landscape.
- IT Services: 2.04 lakh jobs
- Healthcare & Life Sciences: 1.47 lakh jobs
- Commercial & Professional Services: 94,000 jobs
Through the Startup India initiative, the government continues to focus on skill development, funding access, ecosystem collaboration and global outreach.
Key Initiatives Under Startup India
- Capacity building and mentorship
- Outreach and awareness programmes
- Ecosystem development events
- International exposure and global linkages
- Collaboration between startups, corporates and institutions.
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January 16, 2026, 07:00 IST
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Canada Goose reshuffles leadership to drive global growth
Those with MGNREGA cards to get work during transition to G RAM G Act – The Times of India
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