Cristiano Ronaldo is hurtling toward the magical figure of 1,000 career goals and it seems a case of when, rather than if, the Portugal and Al-Nassr forward takes his tally into four figures.

Ronaldo is now at 950 goals, having tallied in Saturday’s 2-0 win at Al Hazm. He signed a new two-year contract with Saudi Pro League team Al-Nassr in June, taking him to the end of the 2026-27 season with the Riyadh-based club.

Only a lengthy injury could deny the 40-year-old his 1,000th goal during that period. But with Ronaldo still scoring at a rate of almost a goal per game for Al-Nassr, we’ve crunched the numbers and can now predict (thanks to the help of ESPN’s Global Sports Research) that Ronaldo — injuries aside — will score his 1,000th goal before the end of 2026, with the former Manchester United, Real Madrid and Juventus star most likely to do it in late November or early December of 2026.

How can we be so certain? Well, there are few things (if any) in football that can be bracketed as sure, but Ronaldo hitting the back of the net for club and country has proved to be one of the most reliable and predictable outcomes since he scored the first of his 950 goals to date as a 17-year-old for Sporting CP in a 3-0 win against Moreirense in Lisbon on Oct 7, 2002.

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Twenty-three years later, Ronaldo is 39 goals ahead of Lionel Messi as the most prolific men’s international scorer with 143 goals — his most recent additions being both goals in Portugal’s 2-1 World Cup qualification victory against Hungary earlier this month — and few would bet against him reaching another big mark, 150 international goals, during the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup next summer.

Having just signed a new three-year contract with Inter Miami that will tie him to the MLS side until the end of the 2028 season, Messi may also break the 1,000-goal barrier before hanging up his boots. The 38-year-old has 889 career goals for Barcelona, Paris-Saint Germain, Inter Miami and Argentina, but with Ronaldo being 60 goals ahead, does anybody really expect him to call it quits before he beats Messi to the 1,000 mark? The answer to that — an emphatic no — is another certainty.

Since making his debut for Sporting as a substitute in a 0-0 Champions League qualifying-round tie against Inter Milan in Aug 2002, Ronaldo has scored 950 goals in 1,293 games, giving him a career goals ratio of 0.73 per game. As previously noted, Messi is the only threat — albeit a distant one — to hitting 1,000 career goals before Ronaldo, but could Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal eclipse whatever figure Ronaldo reaches in the years to come?

Yamal, 18, has the luxury of having time on his side, but with just 33 goals in 137 games at a rate of 0.24 goals per game, the Barcelona and Spain forward would need another two decades or more if he were to emulate Ronaldo. Haaland (0.84 goals per game) and Mbappé (0.74) both have a better goals ratio than Ronaldo with 324 and 396 career goals respectively, but if you ask the two players right now whether they are prepared to play beyond their 40th birthday to catch the Portugal star, it feels like a tall order for the 25-year-old Manchester City forward and Real Madrid’s 26-year-old superstar respectively.

The incredible thing about Ronaldo is that he is now scoring at an even more impressive rate than his career ratio, with his most recent 100 goals for club and country being scored at 0.92 per 90 minutes and his past 50 goals at 0.93 per 90 minutes.

Clearly, by taking his talents to the Saudi Pro League and AFC Champions League, Ronaldo is now operating at a less demanding standard than throughout a career played at the highest level in Europe’s top leagues. It probably explains why it has taken him just 57 games for Al-Nassr and Portugal to go from 900 goals to 950, but nonetheless, he has still scored more Pro League goals this season than Karim Benzema, Darwin Núñez, Ivan Toney and Kingsley Coman.

On the basis that he continues to score at a prolific rate for Al-Nassr and is also as reliable as ever for his country, ESPN’s projection is that Ronaldo is on course to hit 1,000 goals in 13 months’ time. That was the timeframe within which he scored his past 50 goals; throwing it forward, another 13 months will give Ronaldo approximately 54-64 games to score his next 50 goals.

A deep run in the AFC Champions League with Al-Nassr and a similarly successful World Cup with Portugal next summer would only give Ronaldo more opportunities to edge closer to 1,000 goals. But right now, if you want a date for the diary to celebrate Cristiano Ronaldo’s 1,000th career goal, keep it clear in late November and early December next year.