Business
India Inflation To Remain Benign In FY27, Another Rate Cut Only If Growth Requires It: Report
New Delhi: Well stocked granaries, low oil prices and longer-lasting drivers of core disinflation are likely to keep India inflation benign in FY27 as well, according to a new report.
HSBC Global Investment Research said in its report that “we do not forecast more RBI repo rate cuts, but the risks, if any, are of more easing, if growth disappoints”.
November CPI inflation came in at 0.7 per cent (on-year), in line with market expectation. Despite a sequential uptick of 0.4 per cent (on-month), the annual prints remained depressed due to base effect.
Excluding gold, headline CPI remained in deflation (-0.1 per cent in November compared to -0.6 per cent previously).
“Deflation in food prices continued for a third month in annual terms. Sequentially, food prices rose 0.5 per cent on-month after two months of contraction. Vegetables prices picked up after falling for two straight months along with a rise in the prices of protein items like egg, meat and fish,” said the report.
“Gold prices kept core inflation elevated. With a weight of 1.1 per cent in the CPI basket and prices up 59 per cent in November, gold alone explains c63bp of CPI inflation. Our preferred definition of core (excluding food, energy, housing and gold) had been steady at 3.2 per cent y-o-y in 3Q25, and has now fallen to 2.5 per cent in November,” said the report.
Following a sharp fall in October, November goods inflation remained benign.
According to the report, strong cereal production, well-stocked granaries, and winter disinflation are likely to help keep a lid on food inflation over the near future.
“And it is not just easing food prices. The high base of last year is likely to keep CPI inflation soft for the next few months. Global oil prices, too, have been low, and cheaper imports from China will likely keep core inflation soft for a prolonged period,” it noted.
The RBI has lowered H1 FY27 inflation forecast by 50 bp (4.5 per cent previously to 4 per cent now).
“However our forecasts are 50 bp lower than the RBI’s (at 3.5 per cent). If we are correct, and the RBI eventually makes further downward adjustment to inflation, there would be space to ease further, if growth requires it,” said the report.
Heineken has announced a substantial investment exceeding £44 million into hundreds of its pubs across the UK, a move expected to create approximately 850 jobs.
The Dutch brewing giant’s Star Pubs operation, which manages 2,350 sites nationwide, is undertaking this significant financial commitment despite a challenging period for the pub sector.
The industry has faced considerable pressure over the past year, grappling with escalating labour costs and increases in national insurance contributions.
Concurrently, consumer spending has been constrained by concerns over inflation and rising unemployment, further impacting pub revenues. However, pubs did receive additional business rates support from the government last month, aimed at alleviating some of these financial burdens.
Lawson Mountstevens, managing director of Star Pubs, indicated that the investment strategy is partly designed to bolster revenues and help the group navigate the recent “sustained increases in running costs”.
This year, £44.5 million will be allocated to upgrades for 647 pubs. A notable 108 of these venues are earmarked for particularly significant cash injections, with each transformation costing at least £145,000.
Heineken clarified that while the majority of its pubs are group-owned, they are independently operated by local licensees. A key focus for this investment, particularly in the lead-up to the 2026 football World Cup, will be on sports-focused venues.
The pub firm and brewer has a history of significant investment in British pubs, having pumped £328 million into the sector since 2018. Work has already commenced at 52 locations, including eight projects dedicated to reopening boarded-up pubs that have endured lengthy closures.
Mr Mountstevens also urged the government to reduce the tax burden on pubs, arguing it would ease cost pressures and foster further job creation within the industry.
He stated: “We can only do so much; the root-and-branch reform of business rates that the industry has been calling for over many years is urgently required, as well as a lowering of the burden of taxation on pubs, including VAT and beer duty.”
He concluded with a direct appeal: “We are calling on the Government to support us in bringing out the best in the Great British pub.”
GameStop’s boss Ryan Cohen says he sees potential to make eBay a much bigger rival to Amazon.
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It comes as the US said on Monday it will begin to help “guide” vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz.
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