Business
Real estate titan Barry Sternlicht says he will ‘have to’ drop employees in favor of AI
A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
Billionaire Barry Sternlicht, chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group, is a legendary, legacy real estate investor. Brendan Wallace is an entrepreneur who co-founded Fifth Wall, a venture capital firm investing in property technology and decarbonizing real estate. The pair first met in the gym. Now, Wallace can say Sternlicht is a mentor – as well as a Fifth Wall investor – and Sternlicht jokes that Wallace is his trainer.
Together they gave CNBC Property Play a rare glimpse into how old-school commercial real estate investing is pivoting to a new tech-driven world order and how that new world order still relies on lessons learned in the past.
Here are some of the highlights from the conversation, edited for clarity and length:
On CRE investing
Sternlicht: We endured a 500 basis point, fairly rapid increase in rates, and most people who were invested had to pay some price for that, whether the yields on property went up or they weren’t properly hedged. Your costs went up, your expenses, and they drained a lot of cash flow from assets that might have gone into fixing the assets up. That’s behind us now, and there’s no doubt that interest rates are going down. … In May of next year, Jerome [Powell] will be out [as Federal Reserve Chairman], and nobody’s getting that job without agreeing to lower rates.
I think they should lower rates. I think inflation that we’re seeing is tariff related. It will continue. It’ll get worse, probably, in the fourth quarter, when the new inventories hit the shelves and the tariffs can no longer be ignored.
Wallace: The rate increases that Barry was mentioning, those impacted prop tech definitionally, because all tech companies, all loss-making businesses, rerated all at the same time. And at the same time, the demand from commercial real estate stopped.
I would say an overlay on top of it was also that a big part of where real estate companies were investing in the last four years was around decarbonization efforts, so trying to conform to new carbon neutrality laws … and anticipating this kind of wave of decarbonization. And I feel like with [President Donald] Trump‘s election, it kind of felt like they got a hall pass, certainly for four years.
On AI and data centers
Sternlicht: We’ve probably got $20 billion dedicated to [the data center] space. I think it’s a different issue than you think. Most of us don’t build until we get a hyperscaler lease. So we get the lease from Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle. What we’re watching now is the credit worthiness of the tenant, and particularly Oracle, because Oracle is doing all these deals back-ended to [ChatGPT], and Chat is a startup that doesn’t make money and requires hundreds of billions of dollars to grow to the scale they want to be.
There’s no question AI is going to change the entire world and do it much faster than anything we’ve ever seen before, much faster than the internet, certainly faster than the Industrial Revolution. That is terrifying to me. I mean, I’m not so complacent. I look at … how we spend money, and what I can do with AI agents that I do with humans today, and it’s terrifying for the people. I think we have to let people go, right? Jobs of 15 people can be done with a chatbot that costs me $36 a month.
Wallace: I was trying to trace all these pretty Byzantine and somewhat incestuous commitments that are happening between the large tech companies, between the digital infrastructure providers, and it’s actually very hard to trace who’s going to ultimately pay for it all, but ultimately it has to be paid for in the economy.
The way to just acid test whether it makes sense is if you looked at the amount of AI compute that will be required to fill all the data centers that are in production or have been announced to go into production, and then you assume that the tech companies have to make some profit on top of that to justify it, which they’re not today, but let’s assume they have to. Take any margin you want, assume that’s the revenue that’s then therefore flowing to large language models and AI. What percent of U.S. GDP would that be today if you ran that math? My fear is that it might be like 120% of U.S. GDP.
On their next bets
Sternlicht: We’re heavily investing in Europe, actually. Not here. They’ve done the stimulus package. They have low rates. They don’t have, really, inflation. They don’t have tariffs. It’s amazing, having returned from Europe and the Middle East, I can buy everything cheaper in Europe than I can here now.
Wallace: New York City. People overestimate the durability of these political vibe shifts. Within two years of electing Trump, we elected [Zohran] Mamdani to run New York, and I just think these things move dialectically. Over the long term, New York is going to be super valuable. So if I were a betting person, I didn’t have to make a return in the next four years, I would bet on New York.
Business
Nike shares fall 9% on weak outlook, expected 20% sales decline in China
A Nike logo is displayed at a Nike store in Austin, Texas, Feb. 5, 2026.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Shares of Nike fell in extended trading Tuesday after the retailer warned sales will fall for the rest of the calendar year, led by an expected 20% decline in its key China market during the current quarter.
Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said during the company’s earnings call that Nike expects sales for its current fiscal fourth quarter to drop between 2% and 4%, compared with Wall Street estimates of a 1.9% increase, according to LSEG.
For the duration of the calendar year, Friend said, the company expects sales to fall by a low single-digit percentage, led by growth in North America and offset by declines in China. That outlook wasn’t comparable to estimates.
Nike beat expectations across the business on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter, but its guidance left investors with more questions about how long its turnaround will take. Friend also cautioned that Nike’s guidance was based off of where the global economic picture stands today — and it could change given recent geopolitical volatility.
“We also recognize that the environment around us has become increasingly dynamic, and we could experience unplanned volatility due to the disruption in the Middle East, rising oil prices and other factors that could impact either input costs or consumer behavior,” said Friend. “We are focused on what we can control.”
Shares fell more than 8% in extended trading.
Here’s how the world’s largest sneaker company did for its fiscal third quarter, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 35 cents vs. 28 cents expected
- Revenue: $11.28 billion vs. $11.24 billion expected
The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 28 was $520 million, or 35 cents per share. That’s a 35% decline from $794 million, or 54 cents per share, a year earlier. That plunge came as Nike’s gross profit margin slid 1.3 percentage points to 40.2%, “primarily due to higher tariffs in North America,” the company said.
Sales were flat at $11.28 billion, compared to $11.27 billion last year.
While Nike beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, it posted a mixed picture regionally. Nike’s largest market of North America continued to show steady growth, as revenue climbed 3% to $5.03 billion, but that was just shy of Wall Street’s expectations of $5.04 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Meanwhile, Nike’s Greater China market continued to shrink, with revenue down 7% to $1.62 billion during the quarter. Still, that total beat analyst estimates of $1.50 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Nike is continuing to work through a colossal turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill. About a year and a half into his tenure, Hill has made strides in repairing parts of the business, but has been clear that it’ll take time for the entire company to improve given the retailer’s scale and complexity.
He reiterated that expectation on Tuesday, saying in a news release that “the pace of progress is different across the portfolio.”
“The areas we prioritized first continue to drive momentum,” Hill said. “The work is not finished, but the direction is clear, our teams are moving with focus and urgency, and our foundation is getting even stronger to build the future of NIKE.”
Friend said Nike’s turnaround efforts “will continue to impact results over the balance of the calendar year.”
Nike’s recovery was already coming at a tough time as a global trade war dented its efforts to improve profitability and drive sales from inflation-weary shoppers. But now the athletic company will have to contend with a new war in the Middle East that’s already led to rising gas prices and is expected to send consumer prices even higher, which could push shoppers to cut back on nice-to-haves like new clothes and shoes to save money elsewhere.
“We continue to be encouraged by the momentum in North America. We’ve got a strong order book for summer,” Friend said. “We’re seeing positive signs and sell through. We’re not seeing a consumer reaction to what’s going on in the Middle East at this point in time, in North America.”
Hill has focused in part on revitalizing Nike’s business with wholesale partners as opposed to direct sales on its website and in stores. Wholesale revenue climbed 5% to $6.5 billion.
Meanwhile, direct sales slid 4% to $4.5 billion.
Business
Tech giant Oracle makes ‘significant’ job cuts
It is thought that thousands of people may have lost their jobs at Oracle, one of the world’s largest tech companies.
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Business
Oil nears highest price since start of Iran war
The US-Israel Iran war has halted almost all traffic in a key waterway and the price Brent crude has surged.
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