Connect with us

Sports

CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’s close after the second ranking?

Published

2 months ago

on

CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’s close after the second ranking?


There wasn’t much movement Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff’s second ranking, with the top five staying the same, but a big winner might have been the entire state of Texas.

The No. 3 Aggies are still in a first-round bye position, Texas Tech rose to No. 6 after its convincing win against BYU and Texas moved into a safer spot at No. 10 thanks to BYU dropping to No. 12.

And in the state of Florida, No. 15 Miami regained its position as the committee’s top ACC team, while No. 24 South Florida is the first Group of 5 team to appear in the CFP top 25 this season.

The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s second ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on Tuesday night’s second committee ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M

Last team in: Texas. The Longhorns earned a promotion to No. 10 after BYU dropped to No. 12. They had a well-timed bye on Saturday to prepare for Georgia, and no team has a better chance to impress the selection committee this month than Texas. The Longhorns will face two top-five opponents in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M, but with a bad loss to Florida to go along with the defeat by Alabama, Texas is still on the bubble even though it could appear to be in a safer spot this week. If Texas finishes as a three-loss team, it’s conceivable it could be ranked in the top 12 but would likely face a similar situation to Alabama last year. The Tide was the committee’s top three-loss team but got bumped out of the top 12 during the seeding process to make room for a conference champion that earned a guaranteed spot. With the ACC and Group of 5 champions currently outside of the committee’s top 12, it looks like the No. 11 and No. 12-ranked teams would be excluded — and that’s probably the ceiling for a three-loss Texas team.

First team out: Oklahoma. The Sooners had a bye last week to prepare for Alabama, which is essentially a playoff elimination game for OU. Unlike Texas, the Sooners likely wouldn’t have enough on their résumé to compensate for a third loss, even if it were on the road to a top-four team. Their best wins are against Michigan, Auburn and Tennessee — and they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Texas if their records remain the same.

Still in the mix: Vanderbilt. The Commodores need some chaos to get back into the conversation, but the overtime win against Auburn kept their hopes alive. Vandy isn’t going to play in the SEC championship game, and its only remaining opponents are against Kentucky and Tennessee. Texas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are jockeying for a fifth at-large bid for the SEC — which isn’t guaranteed — and Texas has the head-to-head win over Vandy. If OU and Texas both lose, though, and Vandy wins out, Vandy could move up on Selection Day.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

Last team in: Oregon. The Ducks did exactly what the committee needed them to do Saturday — earn a statement road win against a CFP top-25 team in Iowa. While Oregon remained safe at No. 8 on Tuesday night, it doesn’t mean the Ducks are a lock for the playoff. What if they lose to USC? If USC runs the table, its chances of reaching the playoff would skyrocket to 80% according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor — ahead of Oregon (77.5%), which could still get in WITH USC, depending on how far the committee drops them after a second home loss. How the game unfolds will also factor into its decision.

First team out: USC. The Friday night victory against Northwestern (wait, he’s not the punter!) kept the Trojans’ playoff hopes alive. They avoided an upset on a short week while NU had a bye week to prepare. Before USC even gets to Oregon, though, it has another extremely difficult home game Saturday against Iowa. If USC and Michigan run the table, it could create a significant debate in the committee meeting room because USC would have the head-to-head win, but Michigan would have defeated No. 1 Ohio State for the best win in the country. USC also has its own tiebreaker problem, as it lost the head-to-head result at Notre Dame.

Still in the mix: Michigan. The Wolverines have two respectable road losses — to USC and Oklahoma — but they have a chance at the best win in the country if they can beat rival Ohio State for a fifth straight season. If Michigan runs the table, it will have a 46% chance to reach the playoff — ninth best in the country, independent of other results. The head-to-head tiebreakers could be a factor when ranking Michigan against USC and Oklahoma, but at 10-2 with a win against the committee’s top team, the Wolverines would be in the discussion.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech

Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders separated themselves from the rest of the league with Saturday’s resounding triumph over BYU, which is one of the best wins in the country. With the bump two spots to No. 6, the Red Raiders are within striking distance of a first-round bye if they can move into one of the top four spots on Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable considering Ohio State and Indiana are likely to play each other in the Big Ten title game and Alabama still has a tricky game against Oklahoma on Saturday. This position also gives Texas Tech a little cushion should it lose in the Big 12 championship game.

First team out: BYU. The biggest movement in the ranking was with BYU sinking to No. 12, where it would be excluded from the playoff if it were today to make room for No. 12 South Florida, which is the projected Group of 5 champion. If BYU wins the Big 12, which is still a realistic scenario, it will clinch a spot in the playoff regardless of where it’s ranked. BYU’s chances of earning an at-large bid, though, took a significant hit Saturday because of how it lost to Texas Tech — with a subpar offensive performance that included three turnovers.

Still in the mix: Cincinnati, Utah. Cincinnati made its first appearance this week at No. 25 in the committee’s ranking. The Bearcats — and Utah — have at least a 17% chance of reaching the Big 12 title game. Any Power 4 team with a realistic shot at playing for its conference title has a chance at the 12-team field because the five highest ranked conference champions are guaranteed bids. Cincinnati has only one Big 12 loss (the other was the season-opener to Nebraska in Kansas City), but it was a 45-14 drubbing by Utah. The Bearcats have a chance at a statement win on Nov. 22 when they host BYU. There’s a lot of respect within the committee meeting room for Utah, but with Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas left on the schedule, winning the Big 12 is its most realistic path to the playoff.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

ACC

Would be in: Georgia Tech

Last team in: Georgia Tech. Even though Miami checks in as the committee’s top ACC team though at No. 15, Georgia Tech has a far better chance of reaching the ACC title game. The ACC continues to struggle with its top two teams — Virginia and Louisville — losing Saturday night to unranked opponents Wake Forest and Cal, respectively. That means Georgia Tech and Duke (yes, Duke) are the two most likely teams to play for the ACC title, according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has an opportunity to quiet its naysayers, though, when it plays rival Georgia in the regular-season finale. While it would be one of the best wins in the country, it might not be enough to catapult the Yellow Jackets back into the field if they don’t win the ACC. The ACC isn’t in danger of being excluded from the playoff — its champion will get in — but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that the league runner-up will join it.

First team out: Miami. The Canes got promoted to No. 15 ahead of Louisville and Virginia despite a loss to the Cardinals. Miami has a 5.9% chance of reaching the ACC title game and a 10% chance to reach the playoff, according to ESPN Analytics. Miami still has a lot of work to do to earn an at-large bid, and equally as important is hoping teams above it loses.

Still in the mix: Duke, Louisville, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. All of these teams have at least a 5% chance to still reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics. Of all of the teams listed here, though, Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU and Miami lead the ACC with at least a 10% chance to reach the CFP.

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish ranked No. 9 on Tuesday night, earning a promotion thanks to BYU dropping to No. 12. The Fighting Irish dominated Navy on Saturday, which was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight victory since starting the season 0-2. The committee continues to consider that those two losses were by a total of four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans now 7-2 after Friday’s victory against Northwestern.

Group of 5

Would be in: South Florida. After Memphis lost, the two teams most likely to play each other in the American Conference title game are South Florida and North Texas. The Bulls have the best chance (42%) to win the American, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida is ranked No. 24 this week with wins against Boise State, Florida and North Texas.

Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane. JMU has won seven straight contests, and its lone loss was at Louisville, but the Dukes don’t have anything on their résumé to compensate for it. JMU’s schedule is No. 115 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. JMU has the second-best chance to reach the CFP (35.8%) behind South Florida (39.7%). North Texas and Tulane are still alive because they both still have at least a 44% chance to reach the American title game.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s second ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State



Source link

Related Topics:
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Sports

PCB announces schedule for Australia’s T20I tour of Pakistan

Published

4 hours ago

on

January 14, 2026

By

PCB announces schedule for Australia’s T20I tour of Pakistan


Pakistan’s Babar Azam and Australian cricketer Glenn Maxwell shake hands after a match. — AFP

The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) on Wednesday announced the schedule of Australia’s tour of Pakistan, comprising three T20 internationals (T20I) matches set to be played towards the end of this month.

All three matches will be played at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on January 29, January 31 and February 1. Australia’s T20I squad will arrive in Lahore on January 28, the cricket board announced.

T20I series schedule. — PCB
T20I series schedule. — PCB

The PCB said that toss for each match will take place at 5:30pm (local time), with play set to begin at 6pm.

“The series serves as crucial game time for both sides ahead of the all-important ICC Men’s T20I World Cup 2026, where Pakistan are placed in Group A and Australia in Group B,” it added.

This will be Australia’s third tour of Pakistan since March-April 2022, when they played Tests, ODIs and a T20I in the country. The side also played three matches of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 in Pakistan. Their only previous T20I at the Gaddafi Stadium came on April 5, 2022, when they won by three wickets.

PCB Chief Operating Officer Sumair Ahmed Syed said the board was looking forward to hosting Australia in Lahore.

“We are excited and look forward to hosting Australia for the three-match T20I series here in Lahore. The tour marks a blockbuster beginning of the year for Pakistan cricket fans, and I urge them to turn out in numbers during the series to support both the teams as they put the final touches to their T20 World Cup preparations,” he said.

He added that the Gaddafi Stadium has become a familiar venue for Australia, having hosted a Test, five ODIs and a T20I involving the visitors since March 2022.

Series schedule:

1st T20: Thursday, January 29 — 6pm

2nd T20I: Saturday, January 31 — 6pm

3rd T20I: Sunday, February 1 — 6pm





Source link

Continue Reading

Sports

Pakistan announces women squads for South Africa tour – SUCH TV

Published

4 hours ago

on

January 14, 2026

By

Pakistan announces women squads for South Africa tour – SUCH TV



The Pakistan Cricket Board has unveiled the ODI and T20I squads of the Pakistan Women’s team for the upcoming tour to South Africa, starting February 10 in Potchefstroom.

Fatima Sana will continue to lead the side in both formats as Pakistan build towards the ICC Women’s T20I World Cup 2026 in June.

Aliya Riaz, Ayesha Zafar, Gull Feroza, Muneeba Ali, Nashra Sundhu, Natalia Parvaiz, Rameen Shamim, Sadia Iqbal, Sidra Amin, and Tasmia Rubab are part of both the squads, while uncapped batter Saira Jabeen and right-arm fast bowler Humna Bilal have earned their maiden T20I call-ups.

Opening batters Ayesha and Gull, along with left-arm pacer Tasmia and wicketkeeper-batter Najiha Alvi, have been called up to the 15-member ODI squad after missing out on the ODI World Cup selection.

Diana Baig, Najiha, Sadaf Shamas and Syeda Aroob Shah are just part of the 50-over squad, while Humna, Saira, Tuba Hassan and Eyman Fatima are in the T20I squad only.

During the tour, mentor Wahab Riaz will be assisted by a seasoned set of coaches, including Imran Farhat (batting coach), Umaid Asif (fast bowling coach), Abdur Rehman (spin bowling coach) and Abdul Majeed (fielding coach).

The T20Is will be played in Potchefstroom, Benoni and Kimberley from February 10 to 16, with all being day-night fixtures.

Pakistan will warm up for the ODI series with a 50-over game at Kimberley, followed by the three ODIs at Bloemfontein, Centurion and Durban from February 22 to March 1.

The second ODI will begin in the afternoon and will also be played under lights, while the warm-up, first and third ODIs will be day games.

T20I squad:

Fatima Sana (captain), Aliya Riaz, Ayesha Zafar, Eyman Fatima, Gull Feroza (wicket-keeper), Humna Bilal, Muneeba Ali (wicket-keeper), Nashra Sundhu, Natalia Parvaiz, Rameen Shamim, Sadia Iqbal, Saira Jabeen, Sidra Amin, Tasmia Rubab, and Tuba Hassan

ODI Squad:

Fatima Sana (captain), Aliya Riaz, Ayesha Zafar, Diana Baig, Gull Feroza, Muneeba Ali (wicket-keeper), Najiha Alvi (wicket-keeper), Nashra Sundhu, Natalia Parvaiz, Rameen Shamim, Sadaf Shamas, Sadia Iqbal, Sidra Amin, Syeda Aroob Shah and Tasmia Rubab

Pakistan Women’s tour of South Africa Schedule:

1st T20I – February 10 – JB Marks Oval, Potchefstroom (day/night)

2nd T20I – February 13 – Willowmoore Park, Benoni (day/night)

3rd T20I – February 16 – Kimberley Oval, Kimberley (day/night)

50-over warm-up match – February 19 – Kimberley Oval, Kimberley (day)

1st ODI – February 22 – Mangaung Oval, Bloemfontein (day)

2nd ODI – February 25 – SuperSport Park, Centurion (day/night)

3rd ODI – March 1– Kingsmead Stadium, Durban (day)



Source link

Continue Reading

Sports

Our favorite bowl game moments: Mascots, mayhem and more

Published

5 hours ago

on

January 14, 2026

By

Our favorite bowl game moments: Mascots, mayhem and more


Jan 13, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

After five months of college football, the season is down to two teams and one game. But as we wait for Miami and Indiana to meet in their College Football Playoff title throwdown, it is time for our annual lookback on the postseason contests that led up to this one.

All of them.

Since Dec. 13, when the Cricket Celebration Bowl and Bucked Up LA Bowl kicked off 2,200 miles apart, this great nation has been covered up in bowl games. And those bowl games have been covered up in mayonnaise, eggnog, baked beans and Frosted Flakes.

If you don’t like fun, stop reading now. If you don’t love college football, stop reading now. And if you are one of those Ebenezer Scrooge/mall-parking-lot-road-rage Karens who spent their holidays trying to convince the rest of us that bowl games are outdated, stop … well, OK, you probably already stopped reading anyway. And that’s cool with us. Because it’s time for our annual celebration of all that is right with this greatest of sports at a time when so many are so obsessed with what is wrong.

Welcome to the 2025-26 edition of Best of the Bowls.

Best Performance by a Game Winner: Hawai’i’s two-headed QB

In the Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl, Rainbow Warriors starting quarterback Micah Alejado threw for 274 yards and three TDs, and rushed for another 33 yards, but suffered a hard hit in the closing seconds of the game with his team trailing Cal 31-28. Backup QB Luke Weaver, who hadn’t played since mid-September, came off the bench and threw a 22-yard TD pass with 10 seconds remaining to win the game 35-31.

The Tigers QB threw for 267 yards and three TDs, and nearly saved the day in the fourth quarter, but the team playing out the pre-Kiffin era string blew an early 14-point lead and lost to Houston 38-35 in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl.

Best Finish You Might’ve Missed: Rate Bowl

You might remember the Rate Bowl as the Artist Formerly Known as the Copper Bowl, but now you’ll know it as the Game Forever Known as the Golden Gophers’ Last-Second Dagger Bowl.

Best Float: Prince Cheddward’s Dragon

OK, OK, yes, we know that nothing will supplant the Rose Parade when it comes to rolling street artistry. However, those flower-and-seed covered floats never come close to the Rose Bowl itself. Prince Cheddward rode into the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl atop a smoking dragon slathered entirely in Cheez-Its.

Best Sideline Interview: Snoop Dogg

Dude doesn’t just sponsor a game, the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl, he broke off the pregame interview of the game with his name because he looked up and saw he was game for making an actual play in the game with his name, fielding a kick in the end zone adorned with, yes, his name.

Best Trophy You Already Know About: Pop-Tarts Bowl

What could possibly top a giant toaster that cooks human-sized Pop-Tarts, so giant that we all held our breath when one of those tarts leapt for its life? How about a trophy that is also a toaster (even if the coaches can’t figure out how to operate it)? If you don’t know about the Pop-Tarts Bowl accolade/kitchen appliance, then you need to read this story by the great Dave Wilson.

Best Trophy You Need to Know About: Isleta New Mexico Bowl

During the first sunrise of September, on the sacred ground of the Zia Pueblo, Elizabeth and Marcellus Medina’s family gathers clay from the land their family has occupied for centuries, which is used to craft the pot that is awarded to the winner of the New Mexico Bowl every December. It is hand-painted except for one blank space reserved for the name of the winning team, carefully inscribed as soon as the game is over. One part history, one part art and all parts glory.

Best Trophy the Coach Didn’t Want: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Miami’s Mario Cristobal, like Kirby Smart and others from the Saban coaching tree, has taken on his mentor’s model of postgame celebration following any win that isn’t a national championship. In his defense, Cristobal’s focus was to get his players on the stage instead of “all these extra people,” but when he was handed the golden football from atop the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl trophy he looked at it like he’d just opened a Christmas present that he thought was going to be a PlayStation but ended up being socks.

Still the Best Bowl Perk: NASCAR Ride-Alongs

No matter the name of its game, from Continental Tire and Meineke Car Care to Belk and Duke’s Mayo, Charlotte’s bowl game continues to both electrify and terrify its participants by taking them to Charlotte Motor Speedway for some 180 mph hot laps via the NASCAR Racing Experience.

Best Educational Experience: Is this where the dentist lost his tooth?

No doubt Nebraska was bummed to lose the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl to Utah, but at least they were able to get in some great learning opportunities. Isn’t that right, Huskers wideout Dane Key?

Best Surprise Game Tweeter: Steven Van Zandt

Social media can be the worst. But when Bruce Springsteen’s righthand man, aka Miami Steve, aka Little Steven aka Silvio Dante starts randomly live-tweeting about the Go Bowling Military Bowl because he likes East Carolina’s logo because it wears a bandana like he does, well, then social media can be the best. Especially when he kept on tweeting all the way through bowl season and into the CFP.

The ‘Hang It In the Louvre’ Award: Duke WR Que’Sean Brown

Brown did what Arizona State’s Jalen Moss had done earlier, taking a post-TD dive into a giant bowl of Frosted Flakes at the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, but the image that emerged from Brown’s backward flop was pure art.

The ‘Isn’t This Actually in the Louvre?’ Award: The Beaneater by Annibale Carracci

After Louisville defeated Toledo in the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl of Beans, the Cardinals partook of said beans … and legendary social media follow @ArtButSports partook of some art education.

The ‘Is There Something Opposite of the Louvre We Can Hang This In?’ Award: Holiday Bowl

The Trust & Will Holiday Bowl is an underrated classic, from BYU’s 1984 national title game to Kevin from “The Office” slinging eggnog over the coach’s head and onto photographers (which he did on purpose). But this year’s end zone paint jobs were like some sort of wintertime beach Rorschach test.

Best Odd Couple: Butch Jones and Master Chief

The Xbox Bowl made its debut this year, played at The Star in Frisco, Texas. If you’re going to be an Xbox game then who else should present the trophy but the hero of THE Xbox game, Master Chief from Halo, who handed over the hardware to Arkansas State and coach Butch Jones. I can’t accurately explain why that juxtaposition is so funny, but you have to admit that it totally is.

Best Gatorade Bath Chase Won by Players: UTSA

As the Roadrunners finished off Florida International in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl, head coach Jeff Traylor responded by dashing more than 50 yards to try to avoid getting doused in the cold December Dallas air, but the plastic sideline thingy did him in.

Best Gatorade Bath Chase Almost Won by Coach: Army

As the Black Knights put away UConn in the much-colder New England air of the Wasabi Fenway Bowl, Army head coach Jeff Monken ran a bazillion yards zigzagging like Barry Sanders before a definite should-have-been holding penalty against D-lineman Jack Bousum did the frozen deed.

Best Season: Bowl Season

The ratings were up, the fun was up, and transfer portal be damned, the football was up … especially for those who knew their time together was up, too.





Source link

Continue Reading

Trending