Sports
NHL trendspotting: Which first-month shock teams will stay red hot or ice cold?
A month into the NHL season, the playoff race is already shifting in unexpected ways. While many of the highest postseason chances belong to the usual suspects — as do the lowest (sorry, San Jose Sharks) — some are the property of rising teams surging ahead of schedule, versus others who’ve stumbled hard out of the gate.
Using playoff odds, season stats, Elo ratings and other indicators of team quality, we can see which clubs have overachieved or underwhelmed the most relative to preseason expectations.
Some of these early sources of curiosity (for good or bad) look built to last. But others? Not so much.
Let’s dive into the biggest surprises to see which look real, and what they say about the league’s shifting balance of power.
Pleasant surprises
Year 1 of Joel Quenneville’s tenure behind the bench in Anaheim has been nothing less than a rousing success early, with the Ducks ranking No. 1 in goals per game and No. 4 in goal differential overall. To say that’s a massive departure from their usual norm is an understatement; this team had previously ranked no better than 24th in scoring or 21st in goal differential in any season since 2018-19.
But the forward corps of Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry has been among the most productive teammate trios in the league (with 49 combined points), while former Rangers captain Jacob Trouba has solidified the blue line and Lukas Dostal has supplied strong goaltending.
Suddenly a team that hadn’t made the playoffs or posted a winning record in any of the previous seven seasons holds one of the best records in the NHL, with a 61% probability to make the playoffs.
Chance to continue: Moderate.
Because hockey is so prone to randomness in small samples, 12 games is a bit early to render a full verdict on the Ducks officially being back; they still rank No. 26 in the Elo ratings, for instance, which move slowly but are optimized to predict future games.
But it’s already clear that this team is better than it has been in a long time. (Case in point: a traditionally offense-starved team is generating far more chances than in recent years.) With the league’s third-youngest roster, it finally feels as if the Ducks are building toward something sustainable.
The Pens were written off so completely before this season that their main questions were when or if Sidney Crosby and Erik Karlsson would be traded — and whether Evgeni Malkin might just retire after the season. There didn’t seem to be any way that a team that had been the oldest in hockey — and sixth-worst by goals-per-game differential — in 2024-25 could actually contend a season later.
But that’s exactly what has happened to start 2025-26, as Sid the Kid has continued to play at an elite level at age 38, Malkin and Karlsson have rediscovered what once made them great, newcomers Justin Brazeau and Anthony Mantha have added scoring punch and the tandem of Arturs Silovs and Tristan Jarry has stood out in net.
Remarkably, Pittsburgh ranks in the top five in goal differential — a first for the club since 2020-21 — and they have a 56% chance at returning to the playoffs after a three-year absence.
Chance to continue: Low to moderate.
As great a story as the fountain-of-youth Penguins have been to start the season, there are some warning lights flashing that they might not be able to keep it up all season. The first is, obviously, age: The team still ranks as the league’s fifth-oldest roster, with a number of veterans playing key roles. Among their top 12 players by goals above replacement, eight of them — Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Mantha, Jarry, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell — are age 30 or older this season.
Plus, the team is reliant on a few unsustainably high percentages, including a league-high power-play success rate of 35.9% and both the NHL’s fifth-highest team shooting percentage (13%) and second-best save percentage (.909). Strip away those, and this is a team outside the top 20 in zone-time percentage and share of total scoring chances in their games.
0:34
Arturs Silovs makes terrific glove save for Penguins
Arturs Silovs makes terrific glove save for Penguins
Given a fresh start with a new name this season, the Mammoth are skating full speed into what seems like a bright franchise future.
The team currently ranks top 10 in points percentage and goals-per-game differential, with the league’s 11th-best offense and defense. Prime-age (or younger) cornerstones Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther and Clayton Keller are all on pace for the best seasons of their careers by goals above replacement (GAR), while newcomers JJ Peterka and Nate Schmidt are also making a difference.
The Mammoth have the league’s best defense in terms of fewest shots allowed per game, and they could be even scarier if they ever get their goaltending in order. Right now, Utah has a 69% chance to make the playoffs for only the second time since 2011-12 (if we include their previous era as the Arizona Coyotes).
Chance to continue: High.
The Mammoth are no fluke. If anything, they should probably be doing even better than their .643 points percentage suggests.
The team ranks seventh in the share of shot attempts in their games, eighth in the share of scoring chances and sixth in the share of expected goals. Furthermore, Utah has done it against the league’s third-hardest schedule by average opponent Elo rating — which improves to 27th-hardest going forward.
The netminding duo of Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek have been mediocre so far, ranking 25th in save percentage as a team, but the skaters have been producing chances and playing airtight defense.
It’s easy to view Utah as a team that more established opponents would not be excited to face in a first-round series.
As we wrote when talking about the teams with the most to prove this season, the Red Wings have teased a playoff return too many times to be given the full benefit of the doubt this early.
That said, Detroit’s players are starting to click, with Dylan Larkin playing like a long shot MVP contender to lead a group that also includes Alex DeBrincat and the burgeoning trio of Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and Emmitt Finnie.
Nothing about the Wings’ résumé jumps off the page. Even after their improvement, they still rank only 15th in goals-per-game differential, but that would be their best mark since the second-to-last season of their 25-year playoff streak that ended after the 2015-16 season.
Chance to continue: Moderate.
With a 59% playoff chance, the Red Wings are still on the skate-blade’s edge of making the playoffs — and their middle-of-the-road rankings don’t make it seem like that stressful ride will change much over the rest of the season.
But there are reasons to think Detroit can shore up their chances a bit more from here. In terms of expected goals (a measure of controlling play that filters luck out of shooting and save percentages), they rank No. 9 in the share predicted to go their way in games. There’s also hope for better goaltending, as veterans Cam Talbot and John Gibson have a better track record than their average-at-best performances this season suggest.
Finally, the schedule should get a bit easier from here, going from fourth-hardest so far to 16th-hardest going forward.
0:48
Moritz Seider tallies goal vs. Sharks
Moritz Seider tallies goal vs. Sharks
Not-so-pleasant surprises
After a remarkable late-season run to the playoffs under new coach Jim Montgomery last season — during which the Blues somehow produced a better record (21 wins, nine losses) over the final 30 games of the regular season than the Cup-winning 2018-19 team did (20-10) — St. Louis appeared poised to build on that success this season.
But at 5-8-3 so far, the Blues hold the league’s second-worst record and they also sit last in goals allowed per game and goals-per-game differential, having lost the most playoff probability since opening night (minus-34%) of any team.
All of the team’s top skaters — Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Dylan Holloway, Colton Parayko, Cam Fowler — have undershot GAR expectations by significant margins, while goaltender Jordan Binnington has been one of the worst netminders in the NHL. (His best act of protecting the puck might’ve been swiping Alex Ovechkin‘s 900th goal from the ice and into the back of his pants before having to return it.)
Chance to continue: Low to moderate.
Perhaps surprisingly for a team that has performed so badly over the season’s first month, St. Louis is not in terrible shape. The Blues still have a 32% playoff probability, owing to how the rest of the West basement hasn’t exactly been impressive either, and there’s a good chance the Blues start winning more games soon.
The team has been one of the unluckiest in the league by PDO, which measures which teams are unduly benefiting (or not) from shooting and save percentages. Cut through that noise, and St. Louis ranks No. 7 in their share of total scoring chances in games, 11th in their share of expected goals and fourth in offensive zone time percentage.
If they can get better goaltending — right now, Binnington and Joel Hofer combine to rank 31st in save percentage — the Blues are very capable of turning things around.
The Flames have been on parallel tracks with the Blues for a while, for whatever reason, complete with similar late-season changes that landed the two teams in a tie for the West’s final playoff spot in 2024-25 (which St. Louis won on a tiebreaker). Now, they have the two biggest losses of playoff chances in the league to start 2025-26.
The only difference is that Calgary’s goaltenders — Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley — have actually done an admirable job under the circumstances this season, playing behind a defense that allows 30.5 shots per game and with some of the league’s worst goal support — the Flames’ 2.06 goals-per-game rate ranks last in the league.
This team needed either more scoring punch or a more stingy approach at the other end, but so far it has received neither.
Chance to continue: Moderate.
The Flames are in a less enviable position than the Blues because their dip in playoff odds has already landed them at 18%, roughly half as likely as the Blues’ chances. They’re also starting from a position of little hope for an offensive turnaround; the team ranked 29th in goals per game last season, and added little of note over the summer, so they’re banking on whatever positive regression is still left in Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Blake Coleman and Yegor Sharangovich.
Otherwise, Calgary does have a few factors in its favor: It looks better by scoring-chance and expected-goals shares than its bad record would indicate, and the Flames will go from facing the No. 1 most difficult schedule to No. 30 from here, the biggest scheduling easement in the league.
A few weeks ago, we wrote about how the Rangers were under some of the most pressure of any team to prove that last season’s disaster was a one-off from a franchise that typically has been the model of consistent quality over the previous two decades.
But their start in 2025-26 has done little to dispel the idea that something is fundamentally wrong with the Broadway Blueshirts.
New York currently ranks 20th in goals-per-game differential — which would be only their third season ranking so low since the 2005 lockout — and the way they’ve done it is downright bizarre. By goals per game, they have the best defense in the league, yet also the second-worst offense. A similar feat hasn’t been done since the 1963 Chicago Blackhawks finished first on defense and sixth (hey, it was the Original Six era) on offense.
Chance to continue: Low.
Like St. Louis, the Rangers have reasonably decent playoff odds (41%) despite currently sitting near the bottom of the pile in the East standings. They have too much offensive talent on hand — Artemi Panarin, J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad, among others — to sit last in scoring, after six consecutive seasons ranking 16th or better at that end. Though they might not finish first in goals allowed per game either, that extreme is a lot more fitting with this team’s track record than the 31st-ranked offense.
In terms of controlling play, the Rangers rank fourth in scoring-chance share, fifth in expected-goals share and seventh in offensive zone-time share. When they start improving upon their league-worst 7.8% shooting percentage, the Rangers should start winning more games, and their playoff chances will rise.
Before the season, the Wild signed Kirill Kaprizov to the richest contract in NHL history (which kicks in next season) because the data said he was as indispensable as any star: Since 2020-21, he’d driven roughly one-third of Minnesota’s offense, and in 2024-25 the team scored like a borderline top-10 team when he played and cratered without him. The logic around Kaprizov’s value still seems sound; he’s currently on pace for 45 adjusted goals and 105 adjusted points.
But while he’s holding up his end, the goaltending, defense and depth scoring aren’t, as Minnesota ranks just 20th in goals per game, despite Kaprizov’s production, to go with a No. 25 ranking in goals allowed per game and No. 29 in goals-per-game differential.
It’s now looking as if the Wild committed a lot to one player who hasn’t been able to overcome the rest of the team’s flaws to start the season.
Chance to continue: Moderate to high.
Minnesota is a confusing mixed bag so far in 2025-26. On the positive side, the Wild are a top-six team by share of offensive zone time, which would seem to suggest the potential for better results when their 98.9 PDO — 25th in the league — gets straightened out. (PDO is a highly luck-driven stat that tends to regress to the mean of 100.0 over time.)
But the Wild also haven’t done much with all that zone time, ranking 23rd in scoring-chance share and 25th in expected-goals share, perhaps indicating the need for tactical adjustments from coach John Hynes.
Also on the negative side: The Wild play a slightly tougher schedule from here, and with 24% playoff chances, they have little margin for error.
FORT WORTH, Texas — The Oklahoma Sooners gymnastics team stood huddled in a circle, staring only at one another, as the crowd at Dickies Arena was transfixed on the balance beam.
The Sooners’ day was over, capped off by yet another high-scoring floor routine by senior Faith Torrez, and it all came down to LSU sophomore Kailin Chio on balance beam.
While the rest of the arena cheered and gasped, no one from the Oklahoma huddle seemed to even steal a glance. The Sooners remained with their arms around one another for the next several moments. Head coach K.J. Kindler later said she told her gymnasts how proud she was of them but admitted she didn’t know what would happen next.
“Boy, as we were meeting after our last floor routine, I did not know,” Kindler said. “We did not know what position we would end up in, but what I told them was, ‘You did everything you could.'”
That everything was enough.
And when Chio’s beam score — a 9.90 — flashed on the screen, their fate was sealed and the reality seemed to sink in.
Oklahoma had won its eighth national title — all since 2014 and under the helm of Kindler — with a 198.1625 total score. It was .0875 of a point better than LSU, and nearly a half point better than third-place Florida.
Minnesota, making its championship meet debut after playing spoiler against Utah in the regional finals and UCLA in the semifinals, finished in fourth. Soon after the final scores had been announced, there were “Boomer Sooner” chants with the crowd, long hugs and tears of joy, confetti tosses as “We Are the Champions” played over the loudspeaker and balloons featuring the No. 8 in the stands and on the floor.
Winning national titles has become synonymous with the Oklahoma program in the last decade, but Saturday’s title was hardly guaranteed. The Sooners were narrowly edged out for the SEC championship title last month by Florida and had to reconfigure their lineup this week after sophomore Addison Fatta, an all-around staple for the team all season, injured her hand and was restricted to only beam. And on Saturday, the Sooners had a challenging beam rotation — which saw a fall from Keira Wells and had to count a 9.735 from Fatta — and trailed LSU entering the day’s final rotation after having held the lead for the rest of the meet.
But after beam, which ended with strong showings from freshman Ella Murphy, who Kindler later said called it “the most nervous” experience of her life, Lily Pederson and Torrez, the Sooners came together and regrouped.
“We just reminded ourselves to go for it, leave it all on the floor,” Torrez said. “As K.J. said, ‘Leave it all on the floor for floor. Just be aggressive, don’t play it safe and you know what we have to do.’ But we did a good job at staying in our bubble, so we were really laser focused on us.”
Pederson added she was able to relax, despite the pressure, because she knew it was somewhat out of their hands.
“None of us were really paying attention to the score because at the end of the day, if we do our best gymnastics, that’s all we can ask for,” Pederson said. “We can’t control the score. And I think that’s what we all did.”
On floor, an event Kindler and her staff chose to end on, the Sooners dominated. Anchored by Torrez’s 9.95, and not needing to count a score under 9.90, Oklahoma left little to chance.
Meanwhile, the Tigers, the 2024 champions, had a fall of their own from Lexi Zeiss on beam and simply couldn’t make up the difference with their rest of their lineup.
Kindler credited LSU for “making it extra, extra difficult” and “pushing us to our limit.”
For Torrez, who had been limited throughout the season with injury, the weekend was a fairy-tale ending for a storied collegiate career. After not being able to compete in the all-around during the season, Torrez was able to do all four events for the first time in Thursday’s semifinal. Despite her lack of experience this year, she won the individual national title, stunning Chio and a slew of other talented gymnasts, and helped give the Sooners the highest score entering the championship.
“It’s a dream come true,” Torrez said about her final two meets as a college gymnast.
With Saturday’s victory, the Sooners passed UCLA in the all-time standings for sole possession of third place. Georgia still owns the record with 10 national titles, and Utah has nine. The mark also ties the team with Oklahoma’s legendary softball team for the most championships among women’s programs at the school.
Kindler told reporters she would have never believed it if someone had told her when she took the job in 2006 how successful she would be — but insisted she did not take the feeling of winning a national championship for granted.
“I mean, I was in disbelief today,” Kindler said. “We were just on the edge of our seats. I honestly could not believe it. So, they’re all different. They’re all unique, and they’re all incredibly special. You don’t get immune to the feeling of having an accomplishment like this.
“And all the credit goes to the athletes. The things that we have been through this year … all those [championship] teams are special in very different ways. You have different memories based on who’s part of that [specific] personnel, but that euphoric feeling never goes away.”
Sports
Secretary Doug Burgum expects Teddy Roosevelt’s induction into Pro Football Hall of Fame: report
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum reportedly said at a Bank of America reception Thursday that he thinks President Teddy Roosevelt will be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame next year, according to the New York Post.
“Roger Goodell was in the White House in the Oval Office. I had a chance to be with him there, because we, the National Park Service, control the National Mall,” Burgum said, according to the outlet.
“The draft for the NFL is being held on the Mall a year from now, (and) the Capitol will be in the background.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COM
“Keep it a secret. Keep your fingers crossed, but I think we’re going to see Theodore Roosevelt inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. … It’s going to be announced on the Mall when Roger Goodell is conducting the draft.”
Fox News Digital has reached out to the secretary, the White House and the NFL for comment.
U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt at his Washington, D.C., office Feb. 10, 1903. (History Archive/Universal Images Group)
Teddy Roosevelt is credited with saving football in 1905–1906 by forcing college leaders to reform the game’s rules after frequent injury-related deaths of players.
The reforms led to the creation of the forward pass and the banning of dangerous formations.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Fans after a game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Detroit Lions at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. (Scott Galvin/Imagn Images)
The 2027 Pro Football Hall of Fame class is headlined by first-year eligible legends Rob Gronkowski, Adrian Peterson and Ben Roethlisberger. Bill Belichick and Eli Manning are also candidates to get in after missing out on first-ballot entry.
Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
Sports
NJ Transit CEO explains World Cup fare hike as NJ Gov again implores FIFA to pay for $150 train tickets
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
An already-expensive trip to the World Cup just got even more costly, as NJ Transit and the FIFA New York New Jersey Host Committee announced fare hikes to attend eight matches at MetLife Stadium this year.
The East Rutherford, New Jersey, stadium will host those matches, beginning June 13 and ending with the final on July 19, but a roundtrip train ticket to and from New York Penn Station and MetLife Stadium will be $150, up from the usual $12.90. Shuttles are also available for $80.
NJ Transit CEO Kris Kolluri defended the fare hikes on Friday, saying that the ultimate cost to the public transportation company should not be the burden of New Jersey commuters.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COM
NJ Transit CEO Kris Kolluri and Alex Lasry, CEO of the 2026 FIFA World Cup New York New Jersey Host Committee, speak during a press briefing on the regional mobility plan for the World Cup in Newark, New Jersey, on April 17, 2026. (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images)
“It is an exciting moment for New Jersey to showcase New Jersey’s diversity as well as its economic standing in the country and in the world. Equally important, she has said that New Jersey commuters cannot and will not subsidize the movement of fans going to the game, because that would not be fair,” Kolluri said, reiterating that the tournament will cost NJ Transit $48 million.
“In order to move 40,000 people and to pay for the cost of $6 million (per game), we have to charge $150.”
The CEO said that if the regular $12.90 fare were put in place, commuters would subsidize the $48 million bill by 92%.
“No one that I have spoken to thinks that’s fair or reasonable. Commuters in New Jersey should not carry the cost years into the future for a wonderful event, no doubt. But the fans going to the games should burden the cost, that’s all we’re trying to say,” Kolluri added.
Days after New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill said that FIFA should pay for commuters’ costs, she did so again shortly after the fare hikes were announced.
“New Jersey is ready and excited to host eight FIFA World Cup matches this summer – including the World Cup Final,” Sherrill began in a social media post Friday.
A general view of MetLife Stadium and the Meadowlands Train Station is seen from a NJ Transit train before the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 semi-final match between Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on July 9, 2025. (Luke Hales/Getty Images)
“Since I took office, my Administration has been working to prepare for the biggest sporting event our state has ever seen – and today, NJ TRANSIT released their Mobility Plan to move 40,000 fans to and from each match safely and efficiently. In the FIFA World Cup agreement that my Administration inherited, FIFA put zero dollars towards transporting World Cup fans. It also eliminated parking at MetLife Stadium, putting the burden of transporting four times more matchday riders than typical for an event at the stadium on NJ TRANSIT. This agreement will cost NJ TRANSIT at least $48 million, while FIFA is positioned to make $11 billion during the World Cup.
“As I have said repeatedly, FIFA should cover the cost of transporting its fans. If it won’t, we will not be subsidizing World Cup ticket holders on the backs of New Jerseyans who rely on NJ TRANSIT every day.”
The fare hikes, however, did not please FIFA. In a scathing statement to Fox News Digital, World Cup COO Heimo Schirgi said the “current pricing model will have a chilling effect,” including congestion, late arrivals, and “broader ripple effects that ultimately diminish the economic benefit and lasting legacy the entire region stands to gain from hosting the World Cup.”
Schirgi also ripped Sherrill for her “unprecedented” ask to make FIFA pay for the commuting costs.
“No other global event, concert or major sporting promoter has faced such a demand. While FIFA is projected to generate approximately $11 billion in revenue, not profit, as the Governor incorrectly claims, FIFA has always been a not-for-profit organization as per our statutes. Revenues from the FIFA World Cup are reinvested into developing the game of football, particularly for youth and women, worldwide,” Schirgi said.
Commuters move through the NJ Transit section of Penn Station in New York City on May 20, 2025, after NJ Transit resumed operations following a tentative deal to end a three-day strike by train engineers. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Parking has been barred from MetLife Stadium, and rideshare will be extremely limited, both of which will result in increased NJ Transit commutes.
New York Penn Station will also only be open to matchgoers beginning four hours prior to the start of games, and fans were urged to avoid nonessential NJ Transit travel on game days.
Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
Oklahoma wins 4th NCAA women’s gymnastics title in 5 years
Scams have grown more sophisticated, but people are fighting back
Fuel costs: I can’t afford to go to work, says home care worker
-
Politics1 week agoIndian airlines hit hardest after Dubai limits foreign flights until May 31
-
Entertainment6 days agoPalace left in shock as Prince William cancels grand ceremony
-
Politics1 week agoChinese, Taiwanese will unite, Xi tells Taiwan opposition leader
-
Sports6 days agoThe case for Man United’s Fernandes as Premier League’s best
-
Business6 days agoUK could adopt EU single market rules under new legislation
-
Entertainment1 week agoDua Lipa hits major career high ahead of wedding with Callum Turner
-
Business1 week agoThe FAA wants gamers to apply for air traffic control jobs
-
Business1 week agoHe paid $248 in illegal tariffs for this coat. Will he ever get it back?