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Slow growth raises stakes even higher for the Budget

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Slow growth raises stakes even higher for the Budget


Today’s disappointing growth figures reflect that the UK has returned to the slower lanes of growth, having outperformed earlier in the year.

The 0.1% growth seen in the July-to-September quarter was below forecasts, and the economy shrank in the month of September.

A breakdown in car production following the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover does explain September’s contraction, and why the overall growth figures were worse than expected.

The ONS told me that if vehicle production had been flat rather than the worst monthly fall on record outside of the pandemic, GDP in September would have gone up.

That is not the full story, though. Momentum in the economy has clearly flagged.

In particular, slowdowns in consumer-facing services and business investment are a key concern.

Higher costs of employment and the constantly rolling uncertainty are not helping.

Consumers remain cautious, with high savings rates, and businesses have not yet turned on the investment taps.

A key objective for the Budget is to end the constant doom loop of speculation about tax changes. There will be a bigger buffer against fiscal shocks, and potential changes to how often the chancellor’s borrowing rules are assessed.

Certainty has a price, however, in terms of tax rises. The Budget will try to target the rise in tax away from worker pay packets and investors, but the sums involved make this a tricky task.

The silver lining for some to the cloudy figures is that a further Bank of England rate cut next month now seems very likely, with perhaps more to come next year.

It is reflected in the declining cost of government borrowing on markets, with key two- and five-year rates now below what Labour inherited when entering office. The cost of fixed mortgage rates is also starting to come down.

The chancellor will see this as vindication for a tough stance on her “non-negotiable” rules, and will use these figures to demand discipline over tricky Budget decisions from her backbenches. The property market has also, however, been impacted by speculation about tax changes.

The feel-good factor is missing. UK consumers, unlike US consumers, have kept savings levels high, and are not spending as much. Years of rolling crises, followed by ongoing uncertainty about policy, has left scars.

The UK economy has not managed to break the trend of slow growth, despite a strong-ish first half of the year. There was no growth when adjusting for the size of the population.

While the economy has defied the recessionary vibes, and could still end up the second fastest G7 economy this year, the Budget somehow has to provide certainty, try to boost consumer and business confidence, and at the same time fill a large fiscal gap.

It’s quite the ask, and the latest growth figures have raised the stakes for the Budget even higher.



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‘Very successful emerging economy’: UN chief António Guterres hails India as AI Impact Summit host – The Times of India

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‘Very successful emerging economy’: UN chief António Guterres hails India as AI Impact Summit host – The Times of India


UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (File pic)

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday endorsed India as the perfect host for the AI Impact Summit 2026 starting Sunday, praising the nation’s growing global influence and successful economy. The first-ever AI summit in the Global South will be held from February 16-20, bringing together world leaders, tech CEOs, and policymakers to discuss artificial intelligence’s future while ensuring its benefits reach everyone globally.In an exclusive interview with PTI, Guterres strongly backed India’s initiative, saying “I strongly congratulate India for organising this Summit. It’s absolutely essential that AI develops itself to the benefit of everybody, everywhere and that countries in the Global South are part of the benefits of AI.”

India’s AI Rise Gets Global Push As UN Chief Praises Leadership, Nvidia CEO Predicts Job Surge

The UN chief warned against AI becoming a privilege of developed nations or limited to superpowers like the US and China. He emphasized that AI must serve as “a universal instrument for the benefit of humankind.”Speaking about India’s role in global affairs, Guterres praised the country’s position as a key emerging economy. He highlighted recent developments like India’s trade agreement with the European Union as positive steps toward true global multipolarity. “The role of India, (which) is today a very successful emerging economy that is having a bigger and bigger role in not only the global economy but in its influence in global affairs, India is the right place to have this Summit and to make sure that AI (is) being discussed in depth, in all its enormous potential and also in all its risks, but that AI belongs to the whole world and not only to a few,” he said.Further praising India, he added, “I see India in the centre of those emerging economies, and this is something I would be delighted to discuss with Prime Minister Modi because I have a lot of hope for the role that India can play in shaping this multipolar world.”The UN chief expressed his “frustration” with the Security Council’s ineffectiveness and called for fundamental reforms to better represent today’s world, referring to India playing a central role in shaping a multipolar world order.“There are two things we need to avoid in the world. We need to avoid the system in which there is total hegemony by only one power or a system in which the world is divided between two superpowers,” Guterres also said.Guterres also shared his personal appreciation for India, describing his fascination with the country’s rich history and cultural influence. He mentioned how he’s currently reading about India’s historical impact on various regions, from China to Southeast Asia and even the Mediterranean during the Roman Empire.The summit will see presence from various world leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and tech leaders like Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.The summit will also feature other UN leaders, including Human Rights Commissioner Volker Turk and Technology Envoy Amandeep Singh Gill, focusing on the summit’s core themes of ‘People, Planet and Progress’.



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Women losing £2,548 a year to pay gap, TUC says

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Women losing £2,548 a year to pay gap, TUC says


The gender pay gap in the UK is not projected to close for another three decades, according to a new analysis by the Trades Union Congress (TUC). At the current rate of progress, women will have to wait until 2056 for pay parity.

The TUC’s findings reveal that the average woman effectively works for 47 days of the year without pay, only beginning to earn from today compared to her male counterparts. The union body states that the gender pay gap currently stands at 12.8 per cent, equating to a loss of £2,548 annually for the average female worker.

Disparities are particularly stark in certain sectors, with the pay gap in education reaching 17 per cent, while in the finance and insurance industry, it escalates to 27.2 per cent.

Paul Nowak, TUC General Secretary, highlighted the severity of the situation. “Women have effectively been working for free for the first month and a half of the year compared to men,” he said.

The TUC said its analysis showed that the average woman effectively works for 47 days of the year for free and only starts earning from today compared to the average man (Peter Byrne/PA Wire)

“Imagine turning up to work every single day and not getting paid. That’s the reality of the gender pay gap. In 2026 that should be unthinkable.”

Mr Nowak emphasised the financial strain on women amidst the cost of living crisis. “With the cost of living still biting hard, women simply can’t afford to keep losing out. They deserve their fair share.”

He added that the Employment Rights Act represents a crucial step towards achieving pay parity, as it will ban exploitative zero-hours contracts, which disproportionately affect women.

The Act will also mandate employers to publish action plans for tackling their gender pay gaps, though Mr Nowak stressed these plans “must be tough, ambitious and built to deliver real change, otherwise they won’t work.”



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Strategic sovereignty a guiding imperative in reshaping global economy, say CEOs – The Times of India

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Strategic sovereignty a guiding imperative in reshaping global economy, say CEOs – The Times of India


NEW DELHI: In a rapidly reshaping global economy, strategic sovereignty has emerged as a guiding imperative, as nations navigate global supply chains while safeguarding critical capabilities in an increasingly fragmented world, global business leaders said. During a panel discussion, KPMG India CEO Yezdi Nagporewalla, global leaders across new age economy, technology and defence, financial inclusion, and consumer sectors, discussed the challenges and opportunities of operating in a fragmented global economy.Highlighting the core of strategic sovereignty in a world of global supply chains, General Atomics Global Corporation CEO Vivek Lall, chief executive of, said, “It is about reducing vulnerability to geopolitical choke points, whether in energy, technology, manufacturing, logistics, or data. Strengthening domestic capabilities while building trusted international partnerships is critical, and it is equally important to develop resilience against any potential choke points. As the global community moves forward, the underlying theme is going to be human resource training and human resource knowledge, capabilities. This is often underemphasized, but at the root of strategic sovereignty is a strong focus on human resource development.”Talking about how strategic sovereignty is reshaping the flow of global capital, Kishore Moorjani CEO – Alternatives, Private Funds CapitaLand Investment said, “Perhaps there’s no better place to see that in action than in India. When the country began liberalising over 30 years ago, it was hungry for capital and attracted significant foreign institutional investment. While FII capital is important, it can be fickle. Today, the situation has reversed: capital is chasing India… We respect the sovereignty of the markets we operate in and align our investments accordingly. We come to build India, not just trade.”Discussing the role of financial institutions in building national resilience, Mary Ellen Iskenderian, president & CEO of Women’s World Banking, said, “True economic resilience depends on inclusive access to savings, credit, insurance, and digital payments. Financial inclusion strengthens households and communities, particularly in the face of climate shocks and economic volatility, reinforcing national stability from the ground up.On the question of how consumer brands maintain core identity while navigating local cultures, regulations, and consumer expectations, Mike Jatania, CEO and chairman The Body Shop & co-founder of Aurea, said: “For brands operating across borders, maintaining identity while respecting national priorities is essential. If your brand has a clear purpose and core values, it can adapt locally without losing its identity. Purpose, transparency, and trust are economic currency.”



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