Business
Slow growth raises stakes even higher for the Budget
Today’s disappointing growth figures reflect that the UK has returned to the slower lanes of growth, having outperformed earlier in the year.
The 0.1% growth seen in the July-to-September quarter was below forecasts, and the economy shrank in the month of September.
A breakdown in car production following the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover does explain September’s contraction, and why the overall growth figures were worse than expected.
The ONS told me that if vehicle production had been flat rather than the worst monthly fall on record outside of the pandemic, GDP in September would have gone up.
That is not the full story, though. Momentum in the economy has clearly flagged.
In particular, slowdowns in consumer-facing services and business investment are a key concern.
Higher costs of employment and the constantly rolling uncertainty are not helping.
Consumers remain cautious, with high savings rates, and businesses have not yet turned on the investment taps.
A key objective for the Budget is to end the constant doom loop of speculation about tax changes. There will be a bigger buffer against fiscal shocks, and potential changes to how often the chancellor’s borrowing rules are assessed.
Certainty has a price, however, in terms of tax rises. The Budget will try to target the rise in tax away from worker pay packets and investors, but the sums involved make this a tricky task.
The silver lining for some to the cloudy figures is that a further Bank of England rate cut next month now seems very likely, with perhaps more to come next year.
It is reflected in the declining cost of government borrowing on markets, with key two- and five-year rates now below what Labour inherited when entering office. The cost of fixed mortgage rates is also starting to come down.
The chancellor will see this as vindication for a tough stance on her “non-negotiable” rules, and will use these figures to demand discipline over tricky Budget decisions from her backbenches. The property market has also, however, been impacted by speculation about tax changes.
The feel-good factor is missing. UK consumers, unlike US consumers, have kept savings levels high, and are not spending as much. Years of rolling crises, followed by ongoing uncertainty about policy, has left scars.
The UK economy has not managed to break the trend of slow growth, despite a strong-ish first half of the year. There was no growth when adjusting for the size of the population.
While the economy has defied the recessionary vibes, and could still end up the second fastest G7 economy this year, the Budget somehow has to provide certainty, try to boost consumer and business confidence, and at the same time fill a large fiscal gap.
It’s quite the ask, and the latest growth figures have raised the stakes for the Budget even higher.
Business
New foreclosures jump 20% in October, a sign of more distress in the housing market
fstop123 | E+ | Getty Images
Foreclosure filings climbed again in October, after sitting at historic lows in recent years, according to new data released Thursday.
While the numbers are still small, the persistent rise in foreclosures may be a sign of cracks in the housing market.
There were 36,766 U.S. properties with some type of foreclosure filing in October — such as default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions, according to Attom, a property data and analytics firm. That was 3% higher than September and a 19% jump from October 2024, and marked the eighth straight month of annual increases, Attom said.
Foreclosure starts, which are the initial phase of the process, rose 6% for the month and were 20% higher than the year before. Competed foreclosures, the final phase, jumped 32% year over year.
“Even with these increases, activity remains well below historic highs. The current trend appears to reflect a gradual normalization in foreclosure volumes as market conditions adjust and some homeowners continue to navigate higher housing and borrowing costs,” said Attom CEO Rob Barber in a release.
Florida, South Carolina and Illinois led the nation in state foreclosure filings. On a metropolitan area level, Florida’s Tampa, Jacksonville and Orlando had the most filings, with Riverside, California, and Cleveland rounding out the top five.
Looking specifically at completed foreclosures, Texas, California and Florida had the most, suggesting those states will see more inventory coming on the market at distressed prices. There is still very strong demand for homes, especially in lower price ranges, so it is likely those foreclosed properties will find buyers quickly.
At the peak of the Great Recession, more than 4% of mortgages were in foreclosure, according to Rick Sharga, CEO of CJ Patrick Co., a real estate market intelligence firm. Today, less than 0.5% are in foreclosure, well below the historic average of between 1% and 1.5%. In addition, 4% of mortgages are delinquent; at the peak of the financial crisis, almost 12% were.
“So, no foreclosure tsunami to worry about,” said Sharga. “That said, there are a few areas of concern. [Federal Housing Administration] delinquencies are over 11%, and account for 52% of all seriously delinquent loans; we’re likely to see more FHA loans in foreclosure in 2026.”
He also noted that states where home prices have been falling while insurance premiums have been soaring — Florida and Texas, in particular — are seeing an uptick in defaults.
While home prices nationally are easing, they remain stubbornly high. Meanwhile, mortgage rates, which were expected to fall more sharply after the Federal Reserve started to cut rates, are still within a percentage point of their recent highs. Some recent buyers who thought they might have been able to refinance to lower rates by now may be feeling pressure, especially with still stubborn inflation.
Consumer debt is at an all-time high, delinquencies are rising in other types of consumer credit and the job market appears to be weakening — all of which could contribute to cracks in the housing market.
“None of these issues have impacted mortgage performance – yet, but it would be unrealistic to assume that these trends, along with slow home sales and declining home price appreciation, won’t lead to at least a slight increase in delinquencies and defaults in the months ahead,” added Sharga.
Business
$100 billion trade target by 2030: India, Russia discuss ways to boost bilateral ties; marine and pharma products in focus – The Times of India
India has urged Russia to expedite the approval of domestic establishments and registration of marine and pharmaceutical products to further strengthen bilateral trade ties.During his visit to Moscow, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal highlighted opportunities for expanding trade and proposed measures to improve market access, the commerce ministry said in an official statement on Thursday.“The issues included expedited listing of Indian establishments and a systems-based approach with FSVPS in agriculture, especially marine products, and a time-bound pathway in pharmaceuticals covering registration, regulatory reliance, and predictable timelines,” it said, as quoted by news agency PTI.FSVPS refers to the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision of Russia.According to the ministry, a comprehensive protocol for trade and economic collaboration across various sectors was finalised and signed during Agrawal’s meeting with Vladimir Ilyichev, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia.Agrawal was in Moscow to attend the 26th Meeting of the India-Russia Working Group on Trade and Economic Cooperation.Currently, bilateral trade stands at $25 billion, with both nations aiming to raise it to $100 billion by 2030.The working group identified several potential areas for trade expansion, including engineering goods, chemicals and plastics, electronics, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, leather, and textiles. It also underscored India’s strengths in smartphones, motor vehicles, gems and jewellery, organic chemicals, textiles, and leather, which could complement Russia’s trade diversification strategy.In the services sector, India encouraged greater participation of Russian entities in IT-BPM, healthcare, education, and creative industries, while seeking smoother mobility for Indian professionals to meet Russia’s labour market needs.India also showcased its Global Capability Centre (GCC) ecosystem, comprising over 1,700 centres employing around 1.9 million professionals, as a platform for Russian firms to enhance business continuity, cybersecurity, design and analytics, and shared services.The ministry added that India acknowledged Russia’s interest in a bilateral investment treaty. “Both sides agreed to explore payments solutions to meet the needs for businesses, especially medium, small and micro enterprises,” it said.
Business
Striking Boeing defense workers vote on new contract
FILE PHOTO: A Boeing logo is seen before the opening of the 55th International Paris Airshow at Le Bourget Airport near Paris, France, June 13, 2025.
Benoit Tessier | Reuters
Roughly 3,200 Boeing defense workers were voting Thursday on a new contract that could end a more than three-month strike that has delayed the manufacturer’s production of F-15 fighter jets and other programs.
The workers rejected previous offers, with their union saying the proposals failed to address concerns.
The contract proposal the workers are voting on Thursday includes 24% wage increases over five years as well as a $6,000 upfront bonus, up from $3,000, though it gets rid of a previous Boeing proposal for $4,000 in payments later on.
The mostly St. Louis-based workers, represented by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 837, went on strike on Aug. 4, their first stoppage since 1996.
Boeing’s defense unit accounted for about 30% of the $65.5 billion in sales Boeing brought in during the first nine months of 2025.
“The strike impacted our fighter production, so F-15, F-18 mods as well as some of our munitions work,” CEO Kelly Ortberg said at a Morgan Stanley investor conference on Sept. 11.
Boeing brought in non-IAM-represented workers during the strike for some of its products, Ortberg said last month.
If the new contract is ratified, the union workers would return as early as Sunday.
The defense-unit’s comes about a year after more than 32,000 unionized machinists who build commercial aircraft walked off the job for seven weeks after failed contract talks last year.
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