Business
Trade deficit is not crisis, it’s investment in growth | The Express Tribune
Rising imports of industrial inputs signal economic revival, not decline, as Pakistan embarks on tariff reform
ISLAMABAD:
Each month, when the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) releases its trade figures, one number grabs headlines: the trade deficit or the gap between imports and exports. The latest data, showing a 38% increase in the first four months of the fiscal year, was no exception. Predictably, critics of trade reform were quick to argue that Pakistan’s import liberalisation is driving the country towards economic ruin.
Some even call the tariff reform a “suicide mission.” Their solution is predictable: return to the old playbook of regulatory and additional duties. But this strategy has been tried repeatedly over the last 17 years, and each time it worsened the very problems it aimed to solve, leading to stagnant growth, deeper poverty, and declining exports.
What this debate often ignores is a simple question: what kinds of imports are rising? About 85% of Pakistan’s imports consist of petroleum, chemicals, machinery, textile industry raw materials, metals, and essential food products such as edible oils, tea, and lentils. These are not luxury items; they are critical inputs for production, energy, and food security. Rising imports of this kind suggest that industries are reviving and consumer demand is strengthening, both signs of economic activity.
Despite the widening trade gap, the deficit has not drained foreign exchange reserves or worsened the current account. Even with recent loan repayments of $400 million, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves remain stable at around $14.5 billion. If imports are building productive capacity, the resulting trade deficit becomes an investment in future growth. As industries modernise and productivity improves, exports catch up, just as they have in nearly every fast-developing economy.
Some critics question why exports have not risen despite tariff cuts. But the reform process only began in July 2025. Until the last fiscal year, Pakistan was still raising tariffs. In July 2024, regulatory duties were increased on over 600 items and additional customs duties on more than 2,000. The current tariff rationalisation plan spans five years, aimed at correcting 17 years of flawed policy. Expecting exports to surge within months is unrealistic – structural reforms take time to bear fruit.
Economic history supports this view, and India’s experience offers a striking example. When the country began liberalising in 1992, its imports and exports were nearly balanced at around $20 billion, with a $2 billion trade deficit. By 2024, its merchandise imports had risen to approximately $720 billion, while exports grew to $437 billion, resulting in a $283 billion trade deficit – with China accounting for half. Yet no one accuses Manmohan Singh of steering India towards economic “suicide.” On the contrary, he is praised for revitalising India’s economy after decades of stagnation.
Pakistan’s own experience is equally telling. As the economy opened in the 1990s and accelerated around 2000, both imports and exports grew rapidly. Imports of telecom equipment, machinery, and industrial materials built the foundation for modern services and infrastructure. The trade deficit widened, but instead of staying the course, Pakistan reversed reforms after 2008, slowing growth and weakening competitiveness. The result has been prolonged stagnation.
Another major argument against tariff reform has been the fear of revenue loss. Yet the numbers tell a different story. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) had long projected gains instead of only minimal losses, and they were right. In the first quarter of this fiscal year, customs duty collections rose by 13%, exceeding targets even after duty cuts.
It may be too soon for firm conclusions, but both past experience and current trends suggest that lower tariffs are encouraging legal imports and improving compliance, not eroding revenue.
Pakistan now stands at a crossroads. It can continue to oscillate between protectionist fear and half-hearted reforms, or it can follow the path of countries that embraced openness to accelerate growth. Pakistan is no longer a bystander in global affairs. It is now positioned at the intersection of shifting geopolitical and economic currents.
To seize this moment, Pakistan must lower trade barriers and open its economy to investment and integration with regional and global markets. Opportunities of this scale are rare – if Pakistan lets this one pass, it may not get another for a generation.
To sum up, a trade deficit driven by productive imports is not a loss; it is an investment in the future. As global trade patterns shift and smaller economies integrate with larger blocs, Pakistan must not be left behind. For too long, powerful lobbies have distorted the tariff system through SROs and exemptions, protecting inefficiency at the cost of progress. It is time to level the field, resist rent-seeking pressures, and stay the course on reform. Pakistan’s path to prosperity lies not in retreat or isolation, but in embracing openness and claiming its rightful place in regional and global value chains.
THE WRITER IS A MEMBER OF THE STEERING COMMITTEE OVERSEEING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL TARIFF POLICY 202530. HE HAS PREVIOUSLY SERVED AS PAKISTAN’S AMBASSADOR TO THE WTO
Business
Stock market this week: Middle East tensions, oil prices, FII flows & more — what will guide Dalal Street
Dalal Street is heading into the new trading week with global uncertainty firmly in focus, as investors keep a close watch on the evolving situation in the Middle East, fluctuations in crude oil prices and the behaviour of foreign investors. Analysts said that sentiment is likely to remain fragile and heavily influenced by developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran, while movements in the rupee, global equities and the US dollar are also expected to shape market direction in the days ahead.Trading activity during the week is also expected to be shaped by the rupee’s movement against the US dollar, while investors continue to assess the impact of global uncertainty on risk appetite. Markets will remain closed on Thursday for Bakri Id.A key trigger for sentiment emerged over the weekend after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations between Washington and Tehran had shown some progress, raising expectations that the ongoing conflict in West Asia could move closer to resolution.Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said investors would closely track developments tied to crude oil, global currencies and bond markets. “This week is expected to remain highly sensitive to global macroeconomic developments and currency movements. Investors will also monitor crude oil prices, developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the trajectory of the US dollar and bond yields, all of which are expected to influence foreign flows and overall risk appetite,” he said.Apart from geopolitical developments, the Reserve Bank’s decision to transfer a record Rs 2.87 lakh crore dividend to the government for the year ended March 2026 is also expected to remain in focus. The announcement comes at a time when rising import costs and supply chain pressures linked to the West Asia conflict continue to weigh on the economy.According to Mishra, market participants are expected to evaluate how the RBI payout could affect liquidity conditions, fiscal flexibility and government spending in the months ahead.Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said market behaviour in the coming sessions is expected to remain sensitive to fresh headlines surrounding diplomatic negotiations and oil prices. “Markets are expected to remain volatile and heavily headline-driven in the coming week, with investor attention firmly focused on developments surrounding the US–Iran situation, broader diplomatic negotiations and movements in crude oil prices,” he said.“While hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough and easing geopolitical tensions have improved sentiment modestly, investors continue to remain cautious as uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of the negotiations remains elevated,” Ponmudi added.He further said investors are expected to watch institutional flows, global equity trends, macroeconomic indicators and the rupee for further market cues. “With global uncertainty still elevated, market participants are likely to remain selective and cautious despite the recent improvement in sentiment,” he said.Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited, said markets would require stronger support factors to build a more constructive setup. According to him, a meaningful decline in crude oil prices, steady foreign institutional investor flows and stable Q1FY27 earnings expectations without major downgrades would be important for sustained momentum.In the previous week, the BSE benchmark index rose 177.36 points, or 0.23%, while the NSE Nifty advanced 75.8 points, or 0.32%.
Business
‘Shameful’ more spent on benefits than jobs for young people, says adviser Alan Milburn
Reforms are needed of the welfare system to tackle the high numbers of young people not in work or education, says Alan Milburn.
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Business
Pets at Home hoping for boost under new boss despite consumer pressure
Pets at Home investors will be hoping the retailer’s new boss can lay out a strategy to return it to profit growth despite a challenging consumer backdrop.
Shares in the company currently sit close to its lowest level for almost seven years following a recent downturn in the group’s retail arm.
The dip in the group’s performance contributed to the departure of previous chief executive Lyssa McGowan late last year.
In March, former Waitrose boss James Bailey took the reins in a bid to drive a turnaround in performance.
Shareholders will be hoping the new boss can show early signs of improvement and a long-term strategy to drive growth in Pets at Home’s update on Wednesday May 27.
The pet products retailer and vet chain is expected to report an underlying pre-tax profit of around £93 million for the year to March, according to analysts.
It would represent a roughly 30% fall from last year, after the company came under pressure from weak demand for discretionary products.
Analysts have said investors will be looking at early trading in the current financial year to see how consumer spending is holding up.
AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould said: “Pets at Home could badly do with some renewed pep.
“Under executive chair Ian Burke, who has returned to a non-executive role after leading the business on an interim basis, Pets at Home laid out a plan to fix a retail business which has been badly affected by a reduction in discretionary spend on toys and treats for Britons’ furry and feathered friends.
“The country may have a reputation for loving their animal companions but in an environment where households are having to watch their pennies, these nice-to-have items were off the list.”
The group has also seen sales of pet food and similar products face fierce pricing competition from non-specialist retailers, such as supermarkets.
It has since cut prices among around 1,000 products in order to help drive activity, with cash-strapped shoppers looking for value.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that UK retail sales volumes dropped to an 11-month low in April, with a 1.3% fall for the month.
Pets at Home is predicted to report revenues of £1.47 billion for the past year, just marginally lower than £1.482 billion reported last year.
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