Business
Higher airfares and hotel prices predicted to push up UK inflation in July
Prices in the UK are set to have risen faster last month as school holidays boosted travel costs and grocery bills remain elevated, economists said.
Some experts said an “Oasis bump” could have contributed to higher accommodation prices in July.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest inflation dataset on Wednesday.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation is widely expected to have increased to 3.7% in July, from the 3.6% recorded in June.
The school summer holidays are likely to have seen airfares rise considerably, with airlines typically bumping up prices in July amid stronger demand from families.
Analysts for Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast that airfares could surge by 17.1% between June and July.
Rail costs and package holidays are also set to have jumped amid the spike in summer travel.
July’s Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation will also be announced on Wednesday.
The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated train fare rises in England in 2026, but this year’s 4.6% hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024.
Banking group Investec has forecast this year’s July RPI figure will be 4.5%, which means fares could jump by 5.5%.
Pressure group Railfuture told the PA news agency “it would be outrageous” if fares rose by that much.
Meanwhile, economists have pointed to a possible spike in hotel prices helping drive up CPI inflation in July.
Sanjay Raja, senior economist for Deutsche Bank, said this could partly be attributed to British band Oasis kicking off their reunion tour in July.
The concerts brought in hordes of fans to arenas in Cardiff, Manchester, London and Edinburgh, which could have driven greater demand for hotel rooms.
Accommodation prices could rise by as much as 9% in July, compared with June, “with the Oasis concerts having a strong impact on Manchester prices alone”, the economist said.
Mr Raja is predicting headline UK inflation will have risen to 3.8% in July.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets for Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The Oasis tour, which saw high demand for hospitality around the gig dates, has the potential to push up inflation in the sector during July.
“We are unlikely to see the Gallagher effect show up in quite the same way as Taylor Swift’s bump to prices in June 2024.
“But demand for hotel rooms, beer, bucket hats and Nineties-style gear could be one of the factors that keep inflation heading higher.”
Food prices have also been rising in recent months – partly driven by higher ingredients, labour and regulatory costs.
Annual food price inflation increased for the third month in a row in June, hitting the highest rate since February 2024.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said there were “particular worries about domestic food price inflation as well as uncertainty around how (US President Donald) Trump’s tariffs could push up prices”.
The Bank of England is forecasting that inflation will increase further this year and peak at about 4% in September, before easing throughout the next two years.
The central bank said accelerating food and energy prices have been key drivers in the uptick in inflation.
Business
Starmer says ‘tide could be turning’ on shoplifting epidemic
Sir Keir Starmer claimed “the tide could be turning” against shoplifting as he set out the Government’s efforts to crack down on retail crime.
The Prime Minister said shop thefts were “slightly down” in the latest figures and he wanted wider use of technology which allows CCTV footage to be shared immediately with the police.
His comments came as a think tank highlighted figures showing 67% of shoplifting offenders go on to commit another offence within 12 months, up from 55% before the pandemic.
In an address to the Usdaw shopworkers’ union, Sir Keir said: “It’s disgraceful that people just working in their shop have to take abuse from customers.
“It’s disgraceful that people feel sick to the stomach thinking about how they’re going to get through the day and it’s disgraceful that people can have their lives and livelihoods ruined by persistent shop theft.”
He said the Government has put an extra 3,000 neighbourhood police officers on the streets and scrapped the “ridiculous” rule which left theft of goods worth less than £200 “not properly investigated” by police.
“That was a shoplifters’ charter, and we’ve ended it and not before time,” he said.
“We’ve toughened up punishment too. We’re giving police stronger powers, making the abuse and assault of retail workers a specific crime and giving you the same protections as emergency workers.”
Sir Keir said he was “not blind to how big this challenge is” but said the number of people charged had gone up 17% in the latest statistics and shop theft was down.
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed shoplifting offences fell slightly last year, down from 516,611 in 2024 to 509,566 in 2025.
Sir Keir said: “It’s only slightly down, but the tide could be turning.”
The Prime Minister’s speech came as the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) warned of a high street crime epidemic.
The centre-right think tank highlighted figures uncovered by former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith through parliamentary questions which showed the extent of repeat offending.
The think tank’s analysis showed the average number of offences committed by shoplifters has nearly doubled in five years, rising from 5.5 to 9.1 offences per convicted thief.
Sir Iain, the CSJ’s chairman, said: “Communities across Britain are suffering from a high street crime wave.
“Set against years of economic difficulties, there is a risk that some of our town and city centres are left permanently hollowed out.”
A standalone offence for assaulting a retail worker is set to be introduced in the Crime and Policing Bill going through Parliament.
But the two Houses of Parliament are currently in a tussle over the final draft of the Bill as the end of the parliamentary session nears.
Almost 80% of shop workers said they experienced verbal abuse, more than half said they were threatened by a customer and 10% said they were assaulted in the latest annual survey by retail trade union Usdaw.
The small drop in shoplifting in the ONS figures may reflect a change in how such offences are recorded.
Offences where someone has entered a retail premises, steals, then either uses or threatens violence against staff or other people should be classed as robbery of business, police forces were advised in April last year.
This may account for the steep increase in the number of such robberies recorded, which rose 78% to 26,158 in 2025.
Joanne Thomas, Usdaw general secretary, said the incoming legislation delivers “much-needed protection of retail workers’ law”.
She said: “While there has been a welcome small decrease in shoplifting across last year, the fact is retail crime continues to be a significant issue for the sector and particularly staff.
“Usdaw’s last survey found that this is in no way a victimless crime, with two-thirds of attacks on retail staff being triggered by theft or armed robbery.
“Having to deal with repeated and persistent offences can cause issues beyond the theft itself, like anxiety, fear and physical harm to retail workers.”
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp accused the Prime Minister of “brazen cheek”, saying Sir Keir was “part of the problem, not the solution”.
He said: “Shoplifting is up 8% under Labour, made worse by a drop in total police numbers of 1,300 in the last year alone.
“Starmer is abolishing prison sentences under a year, which means virtually no shoplifter will ever go to prison.
“The Conservative plan to take back our streets will see 10,000 extra police hotspot patrol high crime areas, combined with a tripling of stop and search and widespread use of live facial recognition to catch wanted criminals.
“Only the Conservatives have a plan to fix this.”
Business
Gold prices rise rebound in Pakistan after recent decline – SUCH TV
Gold prices in Pakistan have risen again at the start of the business week after several days of decline, according to the All Pakistan Bullion Market.
The price of gold per tola increased by Rs 800, reaching Rs 493,962.
Similarly, the price of 10 grams of gold rose by Rs 686 to Rs 423,492.
In the global market, gold also recorded an increase of $8 per ounce, reaching $4,716.
Experts say global economic uncertainty, currency fluctuations, and investor preference for safe-haven assets are driving the upward trend in gold prices.
They add that changes in international markets directly impact Pakistan’s local bullion rates, leading to continued fluctuations in domestic prices.
Business
Anta: The Chinese sports brand taking on Nike and Adidas
Now one of the biggest sportswear firms, Anta’s rise follows a playbook adopted by many Chinese giants.
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