Business
Higher airfares and hotel prices predicted to push up UK inflation in July
Prices in the UK are set to have risen faster last month as school holidays boosted travel costs and grocery bills remain elevated, economists said.
Some experts said an “Oasis bump” could have contributed to higher accommodation prices in July.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest inflation dataset on Wednesday.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation is widely expected to have increased to 3.7% in July, from the 3.6% recorded in June.
The school summer holidays are likely to have seen airfares rise considerably, with airlines typically bumping up prices in July amid stronger demand from families.
Analysts for Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast that airfares could surge by 17.1% between June and July.
Rail costs and package holidays are also set to have jumped amid the spike in summer travel.
July’s Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation will also be announced on Wednesday.
The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated train fare rises in England in 2026, but this year’s 4.6% hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024.
Banking group Investec has forecast this year’s July RPI figure will be 4.5%, which means fares could jump by 5.5%.
Pressure group Railfuture told the PA news agency “it would be outrageous” if fares rose by that much.
Meanwhile, economists have pointed to a possible spike in hotel prices helping drive up CPI inflation in July.
Sanjay Raja, senior economist for Deutsche Bank, said this could partly be attributed to British band Oasis kicking off their reunion tour in July.
The concerts brought in hordes of fans to arenas in Cardiff, Manchester, London and Edinburgh, which could have driven greater demand for hotel rooms.
Accommodation prices could rise by as much as 9% in July, compared with June, “with the Oasis concerts having a strong impact on Manchester prices alone”, the economist said.
Mr Raja is predicting headline UK inflation will have risen to 3.8% in July.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets for Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The Oasis tour, which saw high demand for hospitality around the gig dates, has the potential to push up inflation in the sector during July.
“We are unlikely to see the Gallagher effect show up in quite the same way as Taylor Swift’s bump to prices in June 2024.
“But demand for hotel rooms, beer, bucket hats and Nineties-style gear could be one of the factors that keep inflation heading higher.”
Food prices have also been rising in recent months – partly driven by higher ingredients, labour and regulatory costs.
Annual food price inflation increased for the third month in a row in June, hitting the highest rate since February 2024.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said there were “particular worries about domestic food price inflation as well as uncertainty around how (US President Donald) Trump’s tariffs could push up prices”.
The Bank of England is forecasting that inflation will increase further this year and peak at about 4% in September, before easing throughout the next two years.
The central bank said accelerating food and energy prices have been key drivers in the uptick in inflation.
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Intellia Therapeutics says its Crispr-based treatment succeeds in pivotal trial
Intellia Therapeutics, building exterior and company sign, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Spencer Grant | Universal Images Group | Getty Images
Intellia Therapeutics said its Crispr-based treatment for a rare swelling condition met its goals in a late-stage trial, marking a milestone for the field of gene editing and putting the company on track to seek approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
The company’s treatment uses Nobel Prize-winning technology Crispr to edit DNA and turn off the gene that controls production of a peptide that’s overactive in people with hereditary angioedema, causing them to experience potentially life-threatening swelling attacks. Intellia’s treatment is administered once through an hourslong infusion, making the edits directly in the liver.
Intellia said the one-time treatment reduced attacks by 87% compared with a placebo, meeting the study’s main goal. Six months after treatment, 62% of patients were free from attacks and weren’t using other therapies, Intellia said.
The company described the safety and tolerability of the treatment as “favorable,” reporting the most common side effects were infusion-related reactions, headaches and fatigue. Analysts were closely watching safety in the trial since a patient in a separate trial of a different treatment from Intellia died. That patient developed a liver injury and ultimately died from septic shock following an ulcer, according to the company.
“When you think about where we started with Crispr, just 12 years ago with some of the fundamental insights, I think there was a lot of talk about what might be possible, and we’ve had reports along the way in terms of milestones, but this is the first Phase 3 data in any indication with in vivo Crispr where you’re actually changing a gene that causes disease,” said Intellia CEO John Leonard.
The only FDA-approved Crispr-based medicine comes from Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Called Casgevy, the gene editing is done outside the body, or ex vivo. The process requires collecting a person’s blood cells, making the edits outside the body, then reinfusing them back into a patient. Intellia’s treatment, meanwhile, makes the edits inside the body, or in vivo.
Intellia said it has started a rolling application with the FDA and plans to complete the filing in the second half of this year. The company expects to launch the treatment in the U.S. in the first half of next year, if it’s approved.
If approved, Intellia’s treatment, lonvoguran ziclumeran, will compete with about a dozen other chronic drugs for HAE. Despite the allure of a one-time treatment, genetic medicines haven’t always been a commercial successes. BioMarin withdrew its gene therapy for Hemophilia A because of weak sales, for example.
Leonard said there are important differences between the two, like the fact that BioMarin’s therapy faced questions about how long the effects would last. In contrast, he said Intellia hasn’t seen a single case in almost six years where the effects diminished over time.
Despite the results, he’s reluctant to call Intellia’s treatment a functional cure.
“I think this is a tipping point for the disease and tipping point for Crispr-based in vivo therapy where you can make a change [and] it’s permanent,” Leonard said. “And, as far as we can tell, we don’t have a single patient in this program or other program where there’s been any waning of the effect of what we did to the gene or the effect of what we’ve seen with the clinical aspects of the disease itself. So it’s pretty exciting.”
Clarification: This story has been updated to clarify that a patient in a separate trial of a different treatment from Intellia developed acute liver injury and ultimately died from septic shock following an ulcer.
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