Sports
Who’s ready for Thanksgiving Day football? Picks, predictions and X factors for all three games
The Week 13 schedule for the 2025 NFL season begins with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we have you covered for what should be an exciting holiday. According to ESPN Research, the average over/under point total of 51.2 is the highest for Thanksgiving games over the past 40 seasons. Buckle up.
Ahead of the three matchups, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside each locker room with key storylines and a look back at each team’s history playing on Thanksgiving. ESPN Research provides optimistic stats for all six teams, along with betting nuggets to know. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes bold predictions, while fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for the three games.
Let’s start with the Packers and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for an NFL-record 23rd time.
Jump to a matchup:
GB-DET | KC-DAL | CIN-BAL
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -2.5 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Packers: They are underdogs for the first time this season. They are the only team in the NFL that has been favored in each of their games heading into Week 13. The Packers have already won more division games (two) than they did all of last season, when they were swept by the Lions and Vikings and split with the Bears. — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Detroit will be looking to get payback after its season-opening 27-13 loss at Lambeau Field. Coach Dan Campbell and his team are looking forward to another shot at facing their NFC North division rivals on Turkey Day, where the Lions lead the all-time series versus Green Bay 12-9-1. “We took a loss in Week 1, so it’s a divisional game,” edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson said. “This is as big as any game we’ll play in the regular season.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat the Packers are thankful for: Their defense has generated pressure 35% of the time this season, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. That will be especially helpful against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose QBR has dropped by 69 points when he has faced pressure this season (most in the NFL).
Stat the Lions are thankful for: Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been unstoppable since entering the NFL in 2023, and he has the chance to join rare company Thursday. With one touchdown, Gibbs would become the fifth player in NFL history to record 45 touchdowns (of any kind) within his first three NFL seasons. The other four are all Hall of Famers (Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Gale Sayers and Earl Campbell). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Hutchinson will be held to two or fewer pass-rush wins. He has just a 13% pass rush win rate at edge this season — his pressure tends to come later in the play — and the Packers’ two offensive tackles both rank in the top 15 in pass block win rate at the position. — Walder
Fantasy nugget: Packers wide receiver Christian Watson is in a great spot against the Lions. He has quietly become the safest option in a Packers offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass attempts, clearing 45 receiving yards in every game since returning from injury and seeing at least four targets each week. Detroit has also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 0-3 outright and against the spread when the line is between +3 and -3 this season. The Packers are 1-4 ATS on the road this season, and their past four road games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 34, Packers 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Packers 27
Walder’s pick: Packers 23, Lions 17
FPI prediction: DET, 54% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Packers: Upsetting the Lions in 2023. With an apology to history — the 1962 game against the Lions might be the most significant even though it was the Packers’ only loss in a championship season — recency bias gives the nod to this game. The Packers were 8.5-point underdogs yet pulled off a 29-22 win. It was part of a closing stretch in which the Packers went 6-2 to make the playoffs after starting 3-6. — Demovsky
Thanksgiving game memory for the Lions: Lions top Bears 23-20 in 2024. After three straight Thanksgiving losses as coach of the Lions, Campbell finally ended the team’s seven-year holiday drought last season. With the win, the 11-1 Lions also got off to their best start in franchise history. For quarterback Goff, it was a “bucket list” moment, as he enjoyed a turkey leg following 221 passing yards and two touchdown passes. — Woodyard
Extra stuffing: Inside Hutchinson’s contract extension … Do Packers have 1-2 punch? … Gibbs has 264 yards in Lions’ OT victory … Parsons logs 5th straight 10-sack season
1:05
Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?
Rex Ryan explains why Lions coach Dan Campbell needs veteran help with clock management.
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -3 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: The Chiefs might’ve saved their season — and their chances of reaching the postseason — in their comeback win over the Colts. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes knows the Chiefs’ efforts Sunday will be wasted if they cannot back it up in Dallas. “Now we just have to build off that momentum,” Mahomes said. “We’re playing a good team in the Cowboys. They can score some points and they have a lot of great players. It’s about rebounding fast. It’s going to be a lot of fun going to Dallas and getting to play on Thanksgiving.” — Nate Taylor
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense has put up its best two efforts of the season in the back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Eagles. Now, they get the challenge of Mahomes. While some consider the Chiefs’ offense to be struggling, they are still in the top 10 in yards and passing. “Anytime you go against Patrick Mahomes, you’ve got to have all your T’s crossed and I’s dotted,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “That boy, he’s elite. You can’t let him out of the pocket and improvise, because that’s where he’s at his best.” — Todd Archer
Stat the Chiefs are thankful for: They just broke their streak of not winning one-score games this season, defeating the Colts by a field goal in overtime despite trailing by 11 in the fourth quarter. Kansas City was 0-5 in one-score games this season after going an NFL-record 12-0 in them in 2024, including the playoffs. — ESPN Research
Stat the Cowboys are thankful for: Their offense has usually been at its best when establishing the run and working out of play-action. Quarterback Dak Prescott has the best QBR on play-action snaps this season, and he’s tied with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford for the most touchdown passes (13) on that play type. This Chiefs’ defense has allowed the worst completion rate (82%) and third-most yards per attempt (9.9) on play-action. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Mahomes will record a 90-plus QBR for the first time this season. The Chiefs have been the best offense in the league versus zone coverage (0.27 EPA per play, much higher than their 0.10 against man), and the Cowboys run zone 72% of the time (second most in the NFL). — Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Chiefs should lean on Mahomes and their pass catchers against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. This obviously helps Rashee Rice, but managers in a bind should also consider Xavier Worthy, who has seen at least seven targets in three of his past four games despite averaging just 7.9 fantasy points during that stretch. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, while the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS on the road (0-3 ATS in their past three). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 20, Cowboys 13
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 36, Cowboys 28
FPI prediction: KC, 63.6% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Chiefs: Running back Marcus Allen passes Walter Payton in 1996. The Chiefs don’t have many fond memories on Thanksgiving, but Allen passed fellow Hall of Famer Walter Payton on the all-time rushing touchdowns list in Detroit. Allen recorded his 111th score on a 1-yard dive into the end zone in the first quarter. His performance, including 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helped the Chiefs rally for a 28-24 comeback victory over the Lions. — Taylor
Thanksgiving game memory for the Cowboys: Backup quarterback Clint Longley leads Cowboys to win over Washington in 1974. Longley’s comeback came out of nowhere. With Roger Staubach knocked out in the third quarter, the Cowboys trailed 23-17 with less than 30 seconds to play when Longley, known as the “Mad Bomber,” hit Drew Pearson for a 50-yard touchdown to defeat their rivals. — Archer
Extra stuffing: Pacheco targeting return vs. Cowboys … Guyton (ankle) likely out vs. Chiefs … Did Cowboys’ win set the table for a playoff run? … Jones captains late defensive charge … How Prescott’s initiative saved a Cowboys exec
1:23
Why Stephen A. doesn’t consider Chiefs game a must-win for Cowboys
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the table for the rest of their schedule.
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -7 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Turnover margin is critical to the team’s success in AFC North play. Dating back to 2021, the Bengals are 13-14 in division play. Cincinnati has a plus-12 turnover margin in wins compared to minus-13 in losses. The same principle holds true for the Ravens and Steelers, too. But it will be especially important in stopping Baltimore. “Whoever takes the ball away is going to win,” safety Geno Stone said. — Ben Baby
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: Running back Derrick Henry needs 18 rushing yards to pass Jim Brown for 11th place on the NFL all-time rushing list. He is going against a Bengals defense that is allowing 156 yards rushing per game, which is the second worst in the league. “How many game balls can you give Derrick?,” coach John Harbaugh said. “Maybe we’ll wait until he cracks the top 10, I don’t know. But he’s going to get more yards.” In his past five games against Cincinnati, Henry averaged 86.4 rushing yards per game and scored four touchdowns. — Jamison Hensley
Stat the Bengals are thankful for: Running back Chase Brown recorded his fifth straight game with over 100 scrimmage yards against the Patriots last week. That’s currently the longest active streak in the NFL and a welcome sign after he failed to cross that mark in the first six games of the season.
Stat the Ravens are thankful for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson might be 1-2 in prime-time games this season (won in Week 9 at the Dolphins), but he has a 21-7 record in such games for his career. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the only quarterback with a better record in prime time is Hall of Famer Steve Young (minimum of 15 starts). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will record at least 50 receiving yards for just the second time this season. Twenty-seven percent of targets against the Bengals’ defense have gone to opposing tight ends, the highest rate in the league. — Walder
1:09
Saturday: If Burrow is healthy, he should play
Jeff Saturday says the Bengals shouldn’t sit a healthy Joe Burrow even if the playoffs are out of reach.
Fantasy nugget: The Bengals’ defense has been a fantasy goldmine for opponents all season. This is a dream matchup for managers with Jackson, Henry and Andrews, as Cincinnati allows the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most to running backs and the most to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Overs are 20-8 in Ravens games since last season, the highest rate in the NFL (7-4 this season). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 28
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 68% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Bengals: Their only appearance in 2010. The Bengals are one of four teams with just one Thanksgiving game in their franchise history. That game at the Jets, a 26-10 loss, was full of eventual Hall of Famers (Terrell Owens, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darrelle Revis and Jason Taylor). — Baby
Thanksgiving game memory for the Ravens: The sideline sidestep between Jacoby Jones and Mike Tomlin in 2013. The Ravens play on Thanksgiving for the first time since they beat the Steelers 22-20 by overcoming one of the most controversial plays in league history. With the Ravens leading 13-7 in the third quarter, Jones was running back a kickoff when he was slowed down by Tomlin, who stood in a restricted area that separates the sideline from the playing field, with his back turned to the action and his right foot squarely in the field of play. Jones, who was 38 yards from the end zone, was tackled from behind. Tomlin was later fined $100,000 by the NFL. “It’s just one of those unfortunate moments of life,” Tomlin said five years ago. “I was watching the jumbotron and lost track of where I was. Such is life.” — Hensley
Extra stuffing: Jackson misses walk-through with toe injury … Chase sorry for spitting: ‘What I did was wrong’ … Bengals coach anticipates Burrow will play Thursday
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Russell Wilson and Sean Payton spent just one NFL season together, but tension lingered after a rocky year.
And it appears the tension that built up from that tumultuous stretch continues to linger.
Wilson’s interview on the “Bussin’ With the Boys” podcast, recorded before last month’s Super Bowl between Seattle and New England, recently resurfaced.
In the interview, Wilson doubled down on his October comment labeling Payton “classless,” saying he felt slighted by his former coach’s remarks.
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Head coach Sean Payton of the Denver Broncos talks to quarterback Russell Wilson on the sideline during an NFL preseason football game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium Aug. 11, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. (Ryan Kang/Getty Images)
“[When] you’ve been on the same side or this and that, and I got the same amount of rings as you got, meaning Sean, right?” said Wilson, who won a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks as Payton did coaching for the New Orleans Saints.
“I got a lot of respect for him as a play-caller, this and that, but to take a shot, I don’t like. I don’t think it’s necessary, you know, I mean, especially when I’m not even on your own team anymore. So, for me, there’s a point in time where you have to, I’ve realized, I’ve stayed quiet for so long. There’s a there’s a time and place where I’m not.
“I know who I am as a competitor, as a warrior, as a champion, too, and, you know, I’ve beaten Sean, too. You know, like we’ve been on the same place and the same thing. And so, it’s not a matter of disrespect. Just don’t disrespect me.”
Sean Payton and Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos during an a game against the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High Nov. 19, 2023, in Denver, Colo. (Ryan Kang/Getty Images)
After a rocky one-year stint with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024, Wilson joined the New York Giants last offseason. However, he was relegated to a backup role after just three games.
Rookie Jaxson Dart quickly showed promise once he had the chance to start, but his season was briefly derailed by injury. Jameis Winston — not Wilson — stepped in for Dart in a handful of games. Dart threw three touchdowns in a Week 7 matchup with the Broncos, nearly pulling off an upset in what was eventually a close loss.
After the game, Payton said Dart provided a “spark” to the Giants’ offense.
“I was talking to [Giants owner] John Mara not too long ago, and I said, ‘We were hoping that that change would have happened long after our game,'” Payton said.
The New York Giants’ Russell Wilson attempts to escape a sack by Dallas Cowboys defensive end James Houston (53) in the first half of a game Sept. 14, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Payton also said the Broncos would have faced less of a challenge had Wilson been under center.
“Classless … but not surprised,” Wilson responded in a social media post. “Didn’t realize you’re still bounty hunting 15+ years later though the media.”
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Despite last season’s struggles and chatter about his football future, Wilson does not appear ready to call it quits in 2026.
“I wanna play a few more years for sure,” he said. “I think, for me, I’ve always had the vision of getting to 40, at least. I think the game is different. Quarterbacks, we get hit. It’s not, you know, we get hit hard, but … there’s certain rules. I mean, back in the day when I started, bro, it was you just get [clobbered].
“I mean, so I feel like the game allows you to, you know, live a little longer, I guess. I feel healthy. I feel great. But I think, more than anything else is, do you love the game? Do you love studying? Do you love the passion for it all? Do you love the process? Do you love the practice? Do you love — everybody loves the winning part of it, but it’s process. There’s a journey that you got to be obsessed with. And that part I’m obsessed with.”
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Jayson Tatum, 10 months after Achilles injury, expected to return to Celtics Friday vs Mavericks: report
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Jayson Tatum’s return to an NBA court appears to be coming much sooner than anyone expected.
The Boston Celtics superstar could be suiting up as early as Friday, which marks nearly 10 months since he tore an Achilles against the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference semifinals last season, per ESPN.
The Celtics will face Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks Friday at TD Garden, and Tatum is expected to be out there with his teammates for the first time since his injury.
Tatum was officially listed as questionable on the Celtics’ injury report.
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Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum applauds from the bench in the second quarter against the Charlotte Hornets at TD Garden March 4, 2026. (Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe)
Brad Stevens, the Celtics’ president of basketball operations, noted that his star guard wouldn’t be cleared until he was definitely ready to play, both physically and mentally.
That’s especially the case considering the Celtics don’t need Tatum to rush back. They’re 41-21, which gives them the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Tatum also noted he would want to return for a home game.
Boston has had players stepping up in the absence of Tatum, including his counterpart Jaylen Brown. Brown has taken on the scoring load, averaging 28.9 points per game with 7.2 rebounds and five assists.
Derrick White has added 17.3 points per game, while doing work on the defensive end with 1.2 steals.
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum walks off the court after Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference semifinals against the New York Knicks at TD Garden. (Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe)
And the Celtics have had Payton Pritchard (16.8 points, 5.3 assists) and Anfernee Simons (14.2 points) helping the team every night.
The 28-year-old Tatum returning is nothing short of remarkable considering the average window for Achilles rehab is 9-12 months, and it’s usually on the later end of the timeline.
As Tatum looks to return, he was well aware of how good his team has been in his absence. He has been spotted on the bench cheering his teammates on all season, and he wants to seamlessly work his way back into the rotation.
Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena Jan. 19, 2026, in Detroit. (Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
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“I’m just hyper aware of what’s going on. I think it would just stem from that,” he said, according to NBA.com. “Obviously, I know what I bring to the table and bring to the team. But I’m also aware that these guys have been playing extremely well.”
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SAO PAULO — A Brazilian sports court said on Thursday it suspended a defender of top-flight club Red Bull Bragantino for 12 matches because of sexist remarks he made about a female referee after a Sao Paulo state league game.
Defender Gustavo Marques was also fined in 30,000 Brazilian reais ($5,700) for his comments about referee Daiane Muniz after Bragantino lost 2-1 to Sao Paulo in a Feb. 21 quarterfinal of a state-level tournament.
The suspension is valid for all competitions organized by the Sao Paulo state soccer federation, but does not stop Marques from playing national-level competitions like the Brazilian league or the Brazilian Cup.
“It was our dream to reach the semifinal or even the final, but she killed our game. I think the Sao Paulo state’s soccer federation has to look at matches of this importance and not give it to a woman,” Marques had said in a post-match interview to TNT Brazil. “It is no good for us to play against Sao Paulo, Palmeiras, Corinthians, and they put a woman to referee a match of this importance.”
Later he apologized on his social media channels.
“I was nervous and I said things I shouldn’t have. I talked to Daiane, apologized to her too. She had an assistant with her, I asked her for her forgiveness too for she is also a woman. I was wrong for saying it,” the 24-year-old defender said.
“My wife criticized what I said, my mom did too. I am being a man and a human being by coming here to ask forgiveness for what I said,” he added.
Neither Marques nor Bragantino commented on the ruling. Local media reported the club fined the defender 50% of his wages this month.
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