Sports
Who’s ready for Thanksgiving Day football? Picks, predictions and X factors for all three games
The Week 13 schedule for the 2025 NFL season begins with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we have you covered for what should be an exciting holiday. According to ESPN Research, the average over/under point total of 51.2 is the highest for Thanksgiving games over the past 40 seasons. Buckle up.
Ahead of the three matchups, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside each locker room with key storylines and a look back at each team’s history playing on Thanksgiving. ESPN Research provides optimistic stats for all six teams, along with betting nuggets to know. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes bold predictions, while fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for the three games.
Let’s start with the Packers and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for an NFL-record 23rd time.
Jump to a matchup:
GB-DET | KC-DAL | CIN-BAL
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -2.5 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Packers: They are underdogs for the first time this season. They are the only team in the NFL that has been favored in each of their games heading into Week 13. The Packers have already won more division games (two) than they did all of last season, when they were swept by the Lions and Vikings and split with the Bears. — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Detroit will be looking to get payback after its season-opening 27-13 loss at Lambeau Field. Coach Dan Campbell and his team are looking forward to another shot at facing their NFC North division rivals on Turkey Day, where the Lions lead the all-time series versus Green Bay 12-9-1. “We took a loss in Week 1, so it’s a divisional game,” edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson said. “This is as big as any game we’ll play in the regular season.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat the Packers are thankful for: Their defense has generated pressure 35% of the time this season, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. That will be especially helpful against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose QBR has dropped by 69 points when he has faced pressure this season (most in the NFL).
Stat the Lions are thankful for: Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been unstoppable since entering the NFL in 2023, and he has the chance to join rare company Thursday. With one touchdown, Gibbs would become the fifth player in NFL history to record 45 touchdowns (of any kind) within his first three NFL seasons. The other four are all Hall of Famers (Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Gale Sayers and Earl Campbell). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Hutchinson will be held to two or fewer pass-rush wins. He has just a 13% pass rush win rate at edge this season — his pressure tends to come later in the play — and the Packers’ two offensive tackles both rank in the top 15 in pass block win rate at the position. — Walder
Fantasy nugget: Packers wide receiver Christian Watson is in a great spot against the Lions. He has quietly become the safest option in a Packers offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass attempts, clearing 45 receiving yards in every game since returning from injury and seeing at least four targets each week. Detroit has also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 0-3 outright and against the spread when the line is between +3 and -3 this season. The Packers are 1-4 ATS on the road this season, and their past four road games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 34, Packers 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Packers 27
Walder’s pick: Packers 23, Lions 17
FPI prediction: DET, 54% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Packers: Upsetting the Lions in 2023. With an apology to history — the 1962 game against the Lions might be the most significant even though it was the Packers’ only loss in a championship season — recency bias gives the nod to this game. The Packers were 8.5-point underdogs yet pulled off a 29-22 win. It was part of a closing stretch in which the Packers went 6-2 to make the playoffs after starting 3-6. — Demovsky
Thanksgiving game memory for the Lions: Lions top Bears 23-20 in 2024. After three straight Thanksgiving losses as coach of the Lions, Campbell finally ended the team’s seven-year holiday drought last season. With the win, the 11-1 Lions also got off to their best start in franchise history. For quarterback Goff, it was a “bucket list” moment, as he enjoyed a turkey leg following 221 passing yards and two touchdown passes. — Woodyard
Extra stuffing: Inside Hutchinson’s contract extension … Do Packers have 1-2 punch? … Gibbs has 264 yards in Lions’ OT victory … Parsons logs 5th straight 10-sack season
1:05
Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?
Rex Ryan explains why Lions coach Dan Campbell needs veteran help with clock management.
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -3 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: The Chiefs might’ve saved their season — and their chances of reaching the postseason — in their comeback win over the Colts. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes knows the Chiefs’ efforts Sunday will be wasted if they cannot back it up in Dallas. “Now we just have to build off that momentum,” Mahomes said. “We’re playing a good team in the Cowboys. They can score some points and they have a lot of great players. It’s about rebounding fast. It’s going to be a lot of fun going to Dallas and getting to play on Thanksgiving.” — Nate Taylor
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense has put up its best two efforts of the season in the back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Eagles. Now, they get the challenge of Mahomes. While some consider the Chiefs’ offense to be struggling, they are still in the top 10 in yards and passing. “Anytime you go against Patrick Mahomes, you’ve got to have all your T’s crossed and I’s dotted,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “That boy, he’s elite. You can’t let him out of the pocket and improvise, because that’s where he’s at his best.” — Todd Archer
Stat the Chiefs are thankful for: They just broke their streak of not winning one-score games this season, defeating the Colts by a field goal in overtime despite trailing by 11 in the fourth quarter. Kansas City was 0-5 in one-score games this season after going an NFL-record 12-0 in them in 2024, including the playoffs. — ESPN Research
Stat the Cowboys are thankful for: Their offense has usually been at its best when establishing the run and working out of play-action. Quarterback Dak Prescott has the best QBR on play-action snaps this season, and he’s tied with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford for the most touchdown passes (13) on that play type. This Chiefs’ defense has allowed the worst completion rate (82%) and third-most yards per attempt (9.9) on play-action. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Mahomes will record a 90-plus QBR for the first time this season. The Chiefs have been the best offense in the league versus zone coverage (0.27 EPA per play, much higher than their 0.10 against man), and the Cowboys run zone 72% of the time (second most in the NFL). — Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Chiefs should lean on Mahomes and their pass catchers against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. This obviously helps Rashee Rice, but managers in a bind should also consider Xavier Worthy, who has seen at least seven targets in three of his past four games despite averaging just 7.9 fantasy points during that stretch. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, while the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS on the road (0-3 ATS in their past three). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 20, Cowboys 13
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 36, Cowboys 28
FPI prediction: KC, 63.6% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Chiefs: Running back Marcus Allen passes Walter Payton in 1996. The Chiefs don’t have many fond memories on Thanksgiving, but Allen passed fellow Hall of Famer Walter Payton on the all-time rushing touchdowns list in Detroit. Allen recorded his 111th score on a 1-yard dive into the end zone in the first quarter. His performance, including 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helped the Chiefs rally for a 28-24 comeback victory over the Lions. — Taylor
Thanksgiving game memory for the Cowboys: Backup quarterback Clint Longley leads Cowboys to win over Washington in 1974. Longley’s comeback came out of nowhere. With Roger Staubach knocked out in the third quarter, the Cowboys trailed 23-17 with less than 30 seconds to play when Longley, known as the “Mad Bomber,” hit Drew Pearson for a 50-yard touchdown to defeat their rivals. — Archer
Extra stuffing: Pacheco targeting return vs. Cowboys … Guyton (ankle) likely out vs. Chiefs … Did Cowboys’ win set the table for a playoff run? … Jones captains late defensive charge … How Prescott’s initiative saved a Cowboys exec
1:23
Why Stephen A. doesn’t consider Chiefs game a must-win for Cowboys
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the table for the rest of their schedule.
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -7 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Turnover margin is critical to the team’s success in AFC North play. Dating back to 2021, the Bengals are 13-14 in division play. Cincinnati has a plus-12 turnover margin in wins compared to minus-13 in losses. The same principle holds true for the Ravens and Steelers, too. But it will be especially important in stopping Baltimore. “Whoever takes the ball away is going to win,” safety Geno Stone said. — Ben Baby
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: Running back Derrick Henry needs 18 rushing yards to pass Jim Brown for 11th place on the NFL all-time rushing list. He is going against a Bengals defense that is allowing 156 yards rushing per game, which is the second worst in the league. “How many game balls can you give Derrick?,” coach John Harbaugh said. “Maybe we’ll wait until he cracks the top 10, I don’t know. But he’s going to get more yards.” In his past five games against Cincinnati, Henry averaged 86.4 rushing yards per game and scored four touchdowns. — Jamison Hensley
Stat the Bengals are thankful for: Running back Chase Brown recorded his fifth straight game with over 100 scrimmage yards against the Patriots last week. That’s currently the longest active streak in the NFL and a welcome sign after he failed to cross that mark in the first six games of the season.
Stat the Ravens are thankful for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson might be 1-2 in prime-time games this season (won in Week 9 at the Dolphins), but he has a 21-7 record in such games for his career. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the only quarterback with a better record in prime time is Hall of Famer Steve Young (minimum of 15 starts). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will record at least 50 receiving yards for just the second time this season. Twenty-seven percent of targets against the Bengals’ defense have gone to opposing tight ends, the highest rate in the league. — Walder
1:09
Saturday: If Burrow is healthy, he should play
Jeff Saturday says the Bengals shouldn’t sit a healthy Joe Burrow even if the playoffs are out of reach.
Fantasy nugget: The Bengals’ defense has been a fantasy goldmine for opponents all season. This is a dream matchup for managers with Jackson, Henry and Andrews, as Cincinnati allows the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most to running backs and the most to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Overs are 20-8 in Ravens games since last season, the highest rate in the NFL (7-4 this season). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 28
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 68% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Bengals: Their only appearance in 2010. The Bengals are one of four teams with just one Thanksgiving game in their franchise history. That game at the Jets, a 26-10 loss, was full of eventual Hall of Famers (Terrell Owens, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darrelle Revis and Jason Taylor). — Baby
Thanksgiving game memory for the Ravens: The sideline sidestep between Jacoby Jones and Mike Tomlin in 2013. The Ravens play on Thanksgiving for the first time since they beat the Steelers 22-20 by overcoming one of the most controversial plays in league history. With the Ravens leading 13-7 in the third quarter, Jones was running back a kickoff when he was slowed down by Tomlin, who stood in a restricted area that separates the sideline from the playing field, with his back turned to the action and his right foot squarely in the field of play. Jones, who was 38 yards from the end zone, was tackled from behind. Tomlin was later fined $100,000 by the NFL. “It’s just one of those unfortunate moments of life,” Tomlin said five years ago. “I was watching the jumbotron and lost track of where I was. Such is life.” — Hensley
Extra stuffing: Jackson misses walk-through with toe injury … Chase sorry for spitting: ‘What I did was wrong’ … Bengals coach anticipates Burrow will play Thursday
Sports
Diego Pavia accepts Ravens rookie minicamp invite after making unfortunate NFL Draft history: reports
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Diego Pavia, the polarizing former Vanderbilt quarterback who was runner-up in Heisman voting last season, has reportedly found a home in the NFL after going undrafted this weekend.
Pavia accepted an invitation to the Baltimore Ravens’ rookie minicamp on a tryout basis, per multiple reports. He doesn’t have a spot on the roster yet, but it’s a start as he looks to crack into the NFL with Baltimore.
Of course, Lamar Jackson, the two-time MVP quarterback, is cemented as the team’s starting quarterback, but perhaps Pavia can stand out enough in rookie minicamp to earn an invitation to training camp this summer.
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Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia throws a pass against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the first quarter during the ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium on Dec. 31, 2025. (Nathan Ray Seebeck/Imagn Images)
Pavia was not expecting to be undrafted this weekend, but he became the first Heisman Trophy finalist since 2014 to not hear his name called through the seven rounds in Pittsburgh.
Pavia won the SEC Offensive Player of the Year and the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award for best upperclassman quarterback after throwing for 3,539 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, both of which single-season school records, to give the Commodores its first-ever 10-win season.
Vanderbilt just missed out on the College Football Playoff after finishing 10-3.
POLARIZING COLLEGE FOOTBALL STAR, HEISMAN TROPHY FINALIST GOES UNDRAFTED
Pavia ultimately finished second in Heisman voting to Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza – the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft by the Las Vegas Raiders. So, what ultimately led to Pavia not getting drafted?
While his personality may have factored in, Pavia’s official height at the NFL Scouting Combine turned some heads. Vanderbilt had him listed at 6-foot, but he was measured at 5-foot-9 7/8, which would make him the shortest quarterback in the NFL if he were to step foot on the gridiron today. The average height is 6-foot-2 for an NFL quarterback.
However, those shorter than the average have seen success, including Minnesota Vikings newest member, Kyler Murray, who went first overall to the Arizona Cardinals in 2019 coming out of Oklahoma. He’s listed at 5-foot-10.
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia celebrates after the team’s win against Kentucky at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., on Nov. 22, 2025. (Mark Zaleski/The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Pavia barked back at critics during the Senior Bowl in January regarding his height.
“Yeah, my size has been doubted my whole life,” he said at the time, via AL.com. “I feel like the only thing the NFL cares about is can you win, and I view myself as a winner. I’ve been fortunate with all these great teams that I’ve had — we’ve never had a losing season. So that’s something to look forward to, I hope, for the rest of my career, that’s how it’s going to be.
“I feel like God has blessed me in so many ways to be a connector, and I feel like that’s one of my superpowers that I’ve got — I can connect. We unite, and then once you unite, you want to play for one another, and once you give 120% effort, there’s no one that can stop your team.”
Pavia’s personality, viewed by some as more cocky than confident, may have played a factor as well. After finishing runner-up to Mendoza in Heisman voting, Pavia was spotted at a New York City nightclub next to a sign that read, “F— Indiana.” Then, he posted on social media a photo with friends and a caption that read, “F— ALL THE VOTERS, BUT…FAMILY FOR LIFE.”
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia throws a football during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind., on Feb. 28, 2026. (Kirby Lee/Imagn Images)
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Pavia later apologized for his decision to post that on his socials.
No matter the case, Pavia has a shot now with the Ravens and new head coach Jesse Minter, as he aims to show enough to join the quarterbacks group in training camp. Other than Jackson, the Ravens have Tyler “Snoop” Huntley on the roster to start the season.
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Trevor Bauer, the former Cy Young Award winner and MLB All-Star, tossed a no-hitter for the independent Long Island Ducks in a 13-0 win over the Lancaster Stormers on Sunday afternoon at Penn Medicine Park in Pennsylvania.
It was just Bauer’s second start in the United States since 2021, and he faced just one batter over the minimum in a scheduled seven-inning game of a doubleheader against the Stormers.
Bauer threw 84 pitches, striking out seven hitters and walking just one to lose out on the perfect game.
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Trevor Bauer smiles after pitching no-hitter for Long Island Ducks on Sunday, April 26, 2026. (Jordan McGregor)
But Bauer unleashed a roar on the mound after a called strike three to notch the third no-hitter in Ducks history.
Combined with his first outing for the Ducks on April 21, Bauer has a strong 1.64 ERA to start the season in the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball (ALPB), which is a “Professional Partner League” of MLB.
Fans might have been supporting the opposing Stormers, but they understood what was at stake as Bauer was mowing down hitters throughout his start. They were even heard chanting his name at one point, hoping he could keep his hitless streak alive.
After the game, Bauer returned the favor for those at the Pennsylvania ballpark, signing autographs and taking pictures with fans after entering his name into the Ducks’ record books.
TREVOR BAUER SIGNS WITH PRO BASEBALL TEAM IN UNITED STATES AMID MLB RETURN HOPES
“I’m looking forward to competing in front of U.S. fans again this season,” said Bauer when he signed with the Ducks earlier this month. “The Ducks have had some incredible players come through their organization, and I’m excited to be part of that tradition.”
Ex-MLB stars like Dontrelle Willis, Daniel Murphy, Rich Hill and Eric Gagne have played for the Ducks in the past. New York Mets legends Gary Carter and Bud Harrelson both managed the team, with the latter also being a part-owner.
Bauer’s first start for the Ducks impressed an AL team scout in attendance, saying he was pretty impressed by Bauer’s arsenal on the bump.
“He showed flashes of the guy he used to be and a guy who can help a club,” the scout told the New York Post. “He went out and handled himself well. He showed flashes of the breaking ball he had in the past. Certainly the velocity is not what it once was, but it’s still solid, mostly 92-94. He didn’t throw the ball particularly well on the inside part of the plate with his fastball, but I think it was a really good first outing. You’d expected him to get sharper and probably tick up in velocity.
Trevor Bauer and catcher high-five after finish inning for Long Island Ducks in no-hit bid on Sunday April 26, 2026. (Jordan McGregor)
“You’re talking about a guy who was at the top of the game. Is he back there? No, but he looked like a guy who could go out and compete.”
Bauer pitched in Japan in both 2023 and 2025, while a stint in Mexico came in 2024. He pitched to a 2.59 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in Japan in 2023, and in Mexico, those numbers improved to 2.48 and 13.0. Last year in Japan, though, his ERA shot up to 4.41, and he struck out just 8.2 batters per nine innings.
This June will mark five years since Bauer, as the reigning Cy Young Award winner, last appeared in an MLB game. On June 28 of that year, he tossed six innings of two-run ball while striking out eight batters, recording the win.
Two days later, Bauer was hit with sexual assault allegations, which eventually led to a 324-game suspension (the equivalent of two seasons). It was eventually reduced to 184 games for violating the league’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.
Bauer has maintained his innocence, settling with one accuser while another is facing 16 years in prison after being charged with fraud for faking a pregnancy and asking Bauer for money for an abortion.
Trevor Bauer pitches for Long Island Ducks during no-hitter on Sunday, April 26, 2026. (Jordan McGregor)
Bauer and Lindsey Hill, who accused the pitcher of beating and sexually abusing her in 2021, settled their case in late 2023. Bauer revealed texts from Hill, who said that Bauer would be her “next victim,” among other damning messages. Hill has since said that MLB has more evidence of Bauer’s alleged misconduct.
Last June, Hill was ordered to pay Bauer more than $300,000 for violating settlement terms. Hill breached their settlement agreement with each other by discussing Bauer on podcasts and in public appearances, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Nearly two years ago, Bauer said he “may have no other choice” but to sue Major League Baseball “if I continue being kept out” of the league. Bauer has said he’d “play for the league minimum,” but he has yet to sign with an MLB team.
“Anyone that’s willing to sit down with me and listen: I’d like to play the second half of my career in a better way than I played the first half,” Bauer told Fox News Digital in January 2024. “I’d like to be an example that you can make mistakes, recognize them, adjust and then be better in the future. I think that’s something us as humans have to do and should be doing constantly.”
Long Island Ducks pitcher Trevor Bauer throws against the Hagerstown Flying Boxcars at Fairfield Properties Ballpark in Central Islip, N.Y., on April 21, 2026. (Thomas A. Ferrara/Newsday RM/Getty Images)
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Bauer has since called out MLB after Pete Rose and other deceased former players were taken off the league’s permanently ineligible list.
“So, since Pete is welcome back now, does that go for everyone who has been blackballed?” Bauer asked on X. “Or do you actually have to be guilty of something to qualify for that?”
Bauer was performing well for the Dodgers at the time of the allegations, pitching to a 2.59 ERA.
Fox News’ Ryan Morik contributed to this report.
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Sports
Kai Trump reveals ‘scary’ medical moment during her trip to Masters Tournament at Augusta National
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Kai Trump, the granddaughter of President Donald Trump, revealed a “scary” medical moment that occurred while she was attending the Masters Tournament earlier this month in a new vlog.
The future University of Miami golfer traveled to Augusta National Golf Club to take in the first major of the year, but the trip to Georgia hit a speed bump after she had an allergic reaction to a hand soap she used on her face.
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Amateur Kai Trump of the United States plays her shot from the 16th tee during the first round of The ANNIKA driven by Gainbridge at Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Fla., on Nov. 13, 2025. (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
“I was using hand soap on my face, when I was at Augusta, to wash off my makeup and I started getting these bumps on my neck,” she said in the vlog.
The 18-year-old had to get medical attention, ultimately receiving a steroid shot to counteract the allergic reaction.
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU HITS GOLF BALLS ON WHITE HOUSE SOUTH LAWN DURING VISIT WITH TRUMP
“Now, I don’t have a rash anymore, but I had an allergic reaction to the hand soap on my face,” she said.
“I have very sensitive skin. It was so, so scary.”
Amateur golfer Kai Trump looks on from the 11th tee before The ANNIKA driven by Gainbridge at Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Florida, on Nov. 12, 2025. (Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
Once the rash was put to rest, Kai appeared to enjoy her weekend at Augusta. She posed for a photo she shared on Instagram with Bryson DeChambeau, a supporter of her grandfather and fellow YouTuber, and his caddie, Greg Bodine.
It wasn’t the best week for DeChambeau, though, as he missed the cut at Augusta National after shooting 6-over in his first two days of the tournament.
In the end, Rory McIlroy, who finally completed the career Grand Slam last year at the Masters, retained the green jacket with a second-straight win. He finished one shot ahead of Scottie Scheffler, who finished 11-under for the week after going 4-under in his final round on Sunday.
Kai Trump poses for a photo with Bryson DeChambeau during the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Ga., on April 9, 2026. (Instagram/@KAITRUMPGOLFER)
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Russell Henley, Cam Young, Tyrell Hatton and Justin Rose, who lost to McIlroy in a playoff at last year’s Masters, all finished tied for third place at 10-under.
Kai is currently scheduled to enroll at the University of Miami later this fall, where she intends to play for the women’s golf team. She is a high school senior at The Benjamin School in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.. She discussed her upcoming senior prom in her latest vlog.
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