Sports
Who’s ready for Thanksgiving Day football? Picks, predictions and X factors for all three games
The Week 13 schedule for the 2025 NFL season begins with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we have you covered for what should be an exciting holiday. According to ESPN Research, the average over/under point total of 51.2 is the highest for Thanksgiving games over the past 40 seasons. Buckle up.
Ahead of the three matchups, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside each locker room with key storylines and a look back at each team’s history playing on Thanksgiving. ESPN Research provides optimistic stats for all six teams, along with betting nuggets to know. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes bold predictions, while fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for the three games.
Let’s start with the Packers and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for an NFL-record 23rd time.
Jump to a matchup:
GB-DET | KC-DAL | CIN-BAL
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -2.5 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Packers: They are underdogs for the first time this season. They are the only team in the NFL that has been favored in each of their games heading into Week 13. The Packers have already won more division games (two) than they did all of last season, when they were swept by the Lions and Vikings and split with the Bears. — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Detroit will be looking to get payback after its season-opening 27-13 loss at Lambeau Field. Coach Dan Campbell and his team are looking forward to another shot at facing their NFC North division rivals on Turkey Day, where the Lions lead the all-time series versus Green Bay 12-9-1. “We took a loss in Week 1, so it’s a divisional game,” edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson said. “This is as big as any game we’ll play in the regular season.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat the Packers are thankful for: Their defense has generated pressure 35% of the time this season, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. That will be especially helpful against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose QBR has dropped by 69 points when he has faced pressure this season (most in the NFL).
Stat the Lions are thankful for: Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been unstoppable since entering the NFL in 2023, and he has the chance to join rare company Thursday. With one touchdown, Gibbs would become the fifth player in NFL history to record 45 touchdowns (of any kind) within his first three NFL seasons. The other four are all Hall of Famers (Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Gale Sayers and Earl Campbell). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Hutchinson will be held to two or fewer pass-rush wins. He has just a 13% pass rush win rate at edge this season — his pressure tends to come later in the play — and the Packers’ two offensive tackles both rank in the top 15 in pass block win rate at the position. — Walder
Fantasy nugget: Packers wide receiver Christian Watson is in a great spot against the Lions. He has quietly become the safest option in a Packers offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass attempts, clearing 45 receiving yards in every game since returning from injury and seeing at least four targets each week. Detroit has also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 0-3 outright and against the spread when the line is between +3 and -3 this season. The Packers are 1-4 ATS on the road this season, and their past four road games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 34, Packers 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Packers 27
Walder’s pick: Packers 23, Lions 17
FPI prediction: DET, 54% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Packers: Upsetting the Lions in 2023. With an apology to history — the 1962 game against the Lions might be the most significant even though it was the Packers’ only loss in a championship season — recency bias gives the nod to this game. The Packers were 8.5-point underdogs yet pulled off a 29-22 win. It was part of a closing stretch in which the Packers went 6-2 to make the playoffs after starting 3-6. — Demovsky
Thanksgiving game memory for the Lions: Lions top Bears 23-20 in 2024. After three straight Thanksgiving losses as coach of the Lions, Campbell finally ended the team’s seven-year holiday drought last season. With the win, the 11-1 Lions also got off to their best start in franchise history. For quarterback Goff, it was a “bucket list” moment, as he enjoyed a turkey leg following 221 passing yards and two touchdown passes. — Woodyard
Extra stuffing: Inside Hutchinson’s contract extension … Do Packers have 1-2 punch? … Gibbs has 264 yards in Lions’ OT victory … Parsons logs 5th straight 10-sack season
1:05
Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?
Rex Ryan explains why Lions coach Dan Campbell needs veteran help with clock management.
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -3 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: The Chiefs might’ve saved their season — and their chances of reaching the postseason — in their comeback win over the Colts. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes knows the Chiefs’ efforts Sunday will be wasted if they cannot back it up in Dallas. “Now we just have to build off that momentum,” Mahomes said. “We’re playing a good team in the Cowboys. They can score some points and they have a lot of great players. It’s about rebounding fast. It’s going to be a lot of fun going to Dallas and getting to play on Thanksgiving.” — Nate Taylor
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense has put up its best two efforts of the season in the back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Eagles. Now, they get the challenge of Mahomes. While some consider the Chiefs’ offense to be struggling, they are still in the top 10 in yards and passing. “Anytime you go against Patrick Mahomes, you’ve got to have all your T’s crossed and I’s dotted,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “That boy, he’s elite. You can’t let him out of the pocket and improvise, because that’s where he’s at his best.” — Todd Archer
Stat the Chiefs are thankful for: They just broke their streak of not winning one-score games this season, defeating the Colts by a field goal in overtime despite trailing by 11 in the fourth quarter. Kansas City was 0-5 in one-score games this season after going an NFL-record 12-0 in them in 2024, including the playoffs. — ESPN Research
Stat the Cowboys are thankful for: Their offense has usually been at its best when establishing the run and working out of play-action. Quarterback Dak Prescott has the best QBR on play-action snaps this season, and he’s tied with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford for the most touchdown passes (13) on that play type. This Chiefs’ defense has allowed the worst completion rate (82%) and third-most yards per attempt (9.9) on play-action. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Mahomes will record a 90-plus QBR for the first time this season. The Chiefs have been the best offense in the league versus zone coverage (0.27 EPA per play, much higher than their 0.10 against man), and the Cowboys run zone 72% of the time (second most in the NFL). — Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Chiefs should lean on Mahomes and their pass catchers against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. This obviously helps Rashee Rice, but managers in a bind should also consider Xavier Worthy, who has seen at least seven targets in three of his past four games despite averaging just 7.9 fantasy points during that stretch. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, while the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS on the road (0-3 ATS in their past three). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 20, Cowboys 13
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 36, Cowboys 28
FPI prediction: KC, 63.6% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Chiefs: Running back Marcus Allen passes Walter Payton in 1996. The Chiefs don’t have many fond memories on Thanksgiving, but Allen passed fellow Hall of Famer Walter Payton on the all-time rushing touchdowns list in Detroit. Allen recorded his 111th score on a 1-yard dive into the end zone in the first quarter. His performance, including 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helped the Chiefs rally for a 28-24 comeback victory over the Lions. — Taylor
Thanksgiving game memory for the Cowboys: Backup quarterback Clint Longley leads Cowboys to win over Washington in 1974. Longley’s comeback came out of nowhere. With Roger Staubach knocked out in the third quarter, the Cowboys trailed 23-17 with less than 30 seconds to play when Longley, known as the “Mad Bomber,” hit Drew Pearson for a 50-yard touchdown to defeat their rivals. — Archer
Extra stuffing: Pacheco targeting return vs. Cowboys … Guyton (ankle) likely out vs. Chiefs … Did Cowboys’ win set the table for a playoff run? … Jones captains late defensive charge … How Prescott’s initiative saved a Cowboys exec
1:23
Why Stephen A. doesn’t consider Chiefs game a must-win for Cowboys
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the table for the rest of their schedule.
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -7 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Turnover margin is critical to the team’s success in AFC North play. Dating back to 2021, the Bengals are 13-14 in division play. Cincinnati has a plus-12 turnover margin in wins compared to minus-13 in losses. The same principle holds true for the Ravens and Steelers, too. But it will be especially important in stopping Baltimore. “Whoever takes the ball away is going to win,” safety Geno Stone said. — Ben Baby
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: Running back Derrick Henry needs 18 rushing yards to pass Jim Brown for 11th place on the NFL all-time rushing list. He is going against a Bengals defense that is allowing 156 yards rushing per game, which is the second worst in the league. “How many game balls can you give Derrick?,” coach John Harbaugh said. “Maybe we’ll wait until he cracks the top 10, I don’t know. But he’s going to get more yards.” In his past five games against Cincinnati, Henry averaged 86.4 rushing yards per game and scored four touchdowns. — Jamison Hensley
Stat the Bengals are thankful for: Running back Chase Brown recorded his fifth straight game with over 100 scrimmage yards against the Patriots last week. That’s currently the longest active streak in the NFL and a welcome sign after he failed to cross that mark in the first six games of the season.
Stat the Ravens are thankful for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson might be 1-2 in prime-time games this season (won in Week 9 at the Dolphins), but he has a 21-7 record in such games for his career. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the only quarterback with a better record in prime time is Hall of Famer Steve Young (minimum of 15 starts). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will record at least 50 receiving yards for just the second time this season. Twenty-seven percent of targets against the Bengals’ defense have gone to opposing tight ends, the highest rate in the league. — Walder
1:09
Saturday: If Burrow is healthy, he should play
Jeff Saturday says the Bengals shouldn’t sit a healthy Joe Burrow even if the playoffs are out of reach.
Fantasy nugget: The Bengals’ defense has been a fantasy goldmine for opponents all season. This is a dream matchup for managers with Jackson, Henry and Andrews, as Cincinnati allows the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most to running backs and the most to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Overs are 20-8 in Ravens games since last season, the highest rate in the NFL (7-4 this season). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 28
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 68% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Bengals: Their only appearance in 2010. The Bengals are one of four teams with just one Thanksgiving game in their franchise history. That game at the Jets, a 26-10 loss, was full of eventual Hall of Famers (Terrell Owens, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darrelle Revis and Jason Taylor). — Baby
Thanksgiving game memory for the Ravens: The sideline sidestep between Jacoby Jones and Mike Tomlin in 2013. The Ravens play on Thanksgiving for the first time since they beat the Steelers 22-20 by overcoming one of the most controversial plays in league history. With the Ravens leading 13-7 in the third quarter, Jones was running back a kickoff when he was slowed down by Tomlin, who stood in a restricted area that separates the sideline from the playing field, with his back turned to the action and his right foot squarely in the field of play. Jones, who was 38 yards from the end zone, was tackled from behind. Tomlin was later fined $100,000 by the NFL. “It’s just one of those unfortunate moments of life,” Tomlin said five years ago. “I was watching the jumbotron and lost track of where I was. Such is life.” — Hensley
Extra stuffing: Jackson misses walk-through with toe injury … Chase sorry for spitting: ‘What I did was wrong’ … Bengals coach anticipates Burrow will play Thursday
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump on Tuesday repeated his call for Congress to pass legislation that would rein in college sports at a time athletes are allowed to move freely from school to school and command salaries that put athletic departments in financial peril.
Trump’s remarks came at a White House event honoring some 100 athletes from seven teams that won NCAA championships in 2025.
Trump this month signed an executive order that would limit eligibility to five years, allow one transfer without penalty for undergraduates, stop pay-for-play schemes and build in protections for women’s and Olympic sports.
Aspects of the executive order might not withstand legal scrutiny, which is why Trump and some college sports stakeholders are asking for federal legislation that would codify restrictions and grant the NCAA an antitrust exemption to enforce rules.
Dozens of athletes have challenged NCAA eligibility rules with the hope of extending their college careers and, in turn, their ability to earn money through name, image and likeness deals. He said it’s unfair for athletes right out of high school to compete against 28- or 29-year-olds.
“It’s a very precarious position the courts have left us in,” Trump said, adding that the 2025 settlement of House v. the NCAA created a professional model that has led to financial instability for colleges. “And now it’s a total and complete mess. But we’re going to get it fixed up and we’ve got fantastic people doing it. So we need now Congress to act to clear up the confusion created by the courts and institute permanent reforms to protect college sports at every level, especially some sports.”
The national championship teams honored were Oklahoma State in men’s golf, Texas A&M in women’s volleyball, Wake Forest in men’s tennis, Georgia in women’s tennis, Youngstown State in women’s bowling, Florida State in women’s soccer and West Virginia in mixed rifle.
“Seventy-five percent of Olympians competing for Team USA played as college athletes,” Trump said. “If we don’t straighten out this, we’re not going to have much of an Olympic team because you have so many of these sports, especially certain sports where it’s like the minor leagues, call it the major leagues, whatever you want. But we’ve trained unbelievable athletes to go in and win the gold medal. Without college sports and without your ability to go into college sports and compete and learn how to play and get better, we’re not going to have much of an Olympic team anymore.”
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Eli Manning retired in 2019 and missed out in his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility in 2025. He was passed over again earlier this year but still fired back at a fan who claimed one of his contemporaries was the better quarterback.
On Tuesday, a social media user floated a theory about former Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan, who now oversees football operations as the team’s president, last played in an NFL game in 2022. He announced his retirement in 2024, making him eligible for Hall of Fame consideration beginning in 2028.
“Matt Ryan was a better QB than Eli Manning… people just worship rings. Agree or nah,” the post read.
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New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning greets Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan after their game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, on Oct. 22, 2018. (Jason Getz/USA TODAY Sports)
Manning caught wind of the suggestion and weighed in, pointing to the two Super Bowl-winning teams he was part of during his standout run with the New York Giants.
“I will ponder this while I play with my rings…,” Manning wrote in a quote-tweet.
Ryan’s statistical production surpasses Manning’s, at least on paper. He was named NFL MVP in 2016, an honor Manning never earned. Ryan is also the most accomplished player in Falcons history and finished his career with more than 62,000 regular-season passing yards, compared with Manning’s 57,023.
NFC head coach Eli Manning leads a huddle during a practice session before the NFL Pro Bowl at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on Feb. 4, 2023. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Both quarterbacks were selected to four Pro Bowls, but the key difference lies in championships. Manning won the Super Bowl in 2007 and 2011, while Ryan reached it once but fell short. Manning threw for a single season career-best 4,933 during the run leading up to the second Super Bowl title.
Ryan threw for 284 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions to help the Falcons build a 25-point lead in the championship game — a matchup remembered for the New England Patriots engineering the largest comeback in Super Bowl history.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan passes the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., on Jan. 2, 2022. (Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports)
Manning struck a measured tone in February when discussing his Hall of Fame chances.
“If I never get in the Hall of Fame, it’s not going to change anything,” Manning told Forbes. “I’m not gonna be bitter or mad or upset, and if I do get in, it would just be an unbelievable honor to be associated with some of the great athletes and football players ever. But it’s not going to change my outlook or my approach to how I feel about the game of football.”
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The Falcons have reached the Super Bowl twice in franchise history, first in 1998, but the team is still chasing its first elusive championship.
The Giants marked their 100th season in 2024, winning four Super Bowls over the franchise’s century-long history.
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Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell has committed to Duke, he told ESPN on Tuesday.
Blackwell, who visited Duke on Monday, was the best guard to enter the transfer portal this spring.
“It just felt right,” Blackwell told ESPN. “It felt like the right situation for me. I just connected with Coach [Jon Scheyer] on a different level. We built a connection in these past weeks of just talking to him and him selling why Duke is the right spot for me. Me taking this visit was just confirmation on why I should be at Duke.”
Blackwell, a 6-foot-4 guard, earned third-team All-Big Ten honors this past season after averaging a career-high 19.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists, shooting nearly 39% from 3-point range.
He was at his best in the postseason. Blackwell had 34 points and 10 rebounds in the third round of the Big Ten tournament against Washington, following it with 31 points on 9-for-17 shooting in an overtime win over Illinois. While Wisconsin was upset by 12-seed High Point in the first round of the men’s NCAA tournament, Blackwell finished with 22 points and 10 rebounds against the Panthers.
Blackwell, who is represented by Todd Ramasar and Alexis Liatsos at Life Sports Agency, will have the opportunity to carry that momentum over to Duke.
“Their pitch to me was, come here, have freedom,” Blackwell said. “You can come here and be a draft pick, and that’s always my dream. Come here and help us win a national championship. Those are just things I love to hear. I love the campus, I love the people surrounding Duke. That’s why I made my choice to be a Blue Devil.”
Blackwell, who is still going through the NBA draft process, is joining a backcourt that includes returnees Caleb Foster (8.3 PPG) and Cayden Boozer (7.7 PPG), as well as five-star recruit Deron Rippey Jr. The junior guard said when he entered the portal that he wants to show more on-ball responsibility, meaning Scheyer will have plenty of options as playmakers next season.
“They have four PGs. I would consider myself a point guard,” Blackwell said. “We’re just going to push each other everyday. [When you] have a deep backcourt like we’re going to have, it’s going to be a matchup nightmare for teams. I’m just so excited to play with those guys and challenge those guys. And they challenge me every single day.”
Scheyer has been reloading his roster since last month’s Elite Eight loss to UConn. Projected top-five pick Cameron Boozer is out the door, with projected first-rounder Isaiah Evans expected to follow. Maliq Brown is out of eligibility and freshman Nikolas Khamenia entered the portal and transferred to UConn.
But Duke received positive news on Monday with the return of honorable mention All-ACC big man Patrick Ngongba II, while Cayden Boozer, Foster and potentially Dame Sarr are also likely to return to Durham.
The Blue Devils are also bringing in the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class, led by three top-25 seniors, and added Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski this past weekend.
But Scheyer desperately needed a high-level scorer to round out his roster, an experienced bucket-getter to lead the offense. And he landed the best one on the market in Blackwell.
“Their track record with producing pros definitely played a part in it,” he said. “Not so much with them producing pros, but them developing pros. I don’t think at any other school, there’s only a few, where you can get that certain level of development. That’s major for me.”
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