Business
‘To sustain the ride, they started to dilute it’: How Black Friday became a retail letdown
Black Friday early morning shoppers rush in as the doors are opened at a Walmart store in Fairfax, Virginia, Nov. 28, 2008.
Gerald Martineau | The Washington Post | Getty Images
Black Friday has long been defined by massive crowds, rock-bottom prices and rabid consumers willing to bite, scratch and claw their way to the best deals of the season. But these days, retail’s biggest holiday looks a bit different.
Stores are opening their doors later, foot traffic is flat, online shopping is up and, in a world where Black Friday begins in September, consumers are wary, unsure if the deals they’re getting are even that good.
“The integrity of the event is pretty much gone,” said Mark Cohen, former CEO of Sears Canada, who spent a decade as the director of retail studies at Columbia Business School. “Back in the day, a Black Friday price was the best you could ever find on something … never to be seen again. In today’s day and age, promotional pricing just gets better and better from a consumer’s point of view the closer you get to the holiday.”
A line forms for the 4 a.m. Black Friday opening at Kohl’s department store in Pleasanton, California, Nov. 27, 2009.
Michael Macor | San Francisco Chronicle | Hearst Newspapers | Getty Images
While Black Friday remains a critical day for many retailers and is still arguably the most popular shopping day of the year, it’s no longer defined by the in-person experience. Millions of shoppers are expected to visit malls, big-box stores and specialty retailers on Friday, but millions more are expected to stay at home and shop online from their phones and computers.
That means a shift in strategy for retailers that have long gone all in on Black Friday, including Walmart, Target and Macy’s. Some, such as Kohl’s, are launching their holiday sales earlier in the season. Others, such as Walmart, are spacing out promotions in separate events — one in mid-November, another over the holiday weekend and a final, one-day event on Cyber Monday. Many others plan to stay closed on Thanksgiving but will still have deals online during the holiday.
“I still recall queuing up outside stores waiting for those special deals that every retailer would advertise,” said Denish Shah, the department chair and professor of marketing at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business. “Whereas now it goes over weeks, over multiple days, and most of the time the consumers are doing it from the comfort of their home through online sales.”
For the last six years, more people shopped online on Black Friday than in-store, and foot traffic has been relatively flat following a post-Covid spike, according to data from the National Retail Federation and Placer.ai, an analytics firm that uses anonymized data from mobile devices to estimate overall visits to locations.
Since 2021, Black Friday store visits have consistently been more than 50% higher than the daily average for the full year, but the amount of foot traffic stores are getting on the day after Thanksgiving isn’t really growing, data from Placer.ai shows.
From 2023 to 2025, the number of millennials and Generation X consumers planning to make the majority of their purchases on Black Friday has dropped. It’s largely flat for Gen Z and baby boomer shoppers over that time period, according to data from the Bank of America Institute.
Meanwhile, the amount of money people are spending during the so-called Turkey 5 – the period of shopping days spanning Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday – has declined for two straight years, according to the NRF. Between 2019 and 2024, spending fell nearly 13%.
That decline is expected to continue this year, with consumers planning to spend 4% less on average during the Turkey 5, according to a recent Deloitte survey.
“There is still going to be a day of highlights from retailers, whether it is door busters, … certain additional promotions, etc.,” said Tiffany Yeh, a managing director and partner with Boston Consulting Group’s consumer practice. “But it is more muted.”
How Black Friday lost its edge
When the modern-day version of Black Friday became popularized in the 1980s, it took an entire year of planning to pull off, Cohen said.
“The art was to convince a vendor to give you an enormous discount on cost so that you could create this tremendously compelling offer to the consumer that would then … benefit you for the balance of the holiday season,” he recalled. “But it required an enormous amount of work.”
Retailers had to pick the perfect product, set the perfect price and make sure their competitors didn’t get wind of their promotional plans. Then, they had to make sure they ordered enough inventory to sell out, but not so early that it would cause riots.
Black Friday shoppers pour in to a Best Buy store in Los Angeles at 5 a.m. on Nov. 28, 2008.
Jewel Samad | AFP | Getty Images
But over time, as Black Friday became more popular, retailers began extending the shopping holiday so their biggest sales tailwind of the year could last longer than a single day. First, stores opened earlier Friday morning, then they began opening on Thanksgiving, and then, promotions began the day before. When consumers began expecting discounts on more than a handful of products, promotions were spread to items in every department.
“In other words,” Cohen said, “to sustain the ride, they started to dilute it.”
As discounts spread across the store, the operational feat behind inventory and staffing became even more challenging to manage, leading retailers to spread out promotions even earlier, Yeh said.
“It’s always been a tough one to really staff up labor so significantly for a short period of time,” she said. “If it’s only for a day, people are not going to necessarily want to sign up for that, versus, if it’s for a longer season, then you’re more likely to get the necessary team members and also be able to train them.”
At the same time, consumer habits began to shift in the backdrop.
Are Black Friday deals still worth it?
Online shopping had been on a slow and steady rise for 20 years, but during the Covid-19 pandemic, adoption skyrocketed. Now, retailers don’t need to put on as big of an in-person show on Black Friday, because online sales are increasingly outpacing those in stores.
Stretching Black Friday into a seasonlong event also makes it easier for consumers to spread out their own spending, Shah said.
“November and December are two different pay periods for many consumers,” he said. “It makes a difference if they can spread their spending across two pay periods rather than just one.”
Of course, there’s also debate about how good the discounts actually are on Black Friday, especially in a soft economy where retailers are leaning heavily on promotions to drive sales at the same time they’re raising prices to offset tariffs.
People crowd the first floor of Macy’s department store in New York as they open for Black Friday sales at midnight on Nov. 23, 2012.
Stan Honda | AFP | Getty Images
“Rampant discounting” across the industry — before, during and after the holiday shopping season — has left many consumers feeling “skeptical” about promotions overall, said Sonia Lapinsky, the head of consulting firm AlixPartners’ global fashion practice. Some promotions this holiday season could also be disguising price increases, notching the cost back down to what it was before the ticket price was raised, said Lapinsky.
“They’ve had the power to cross-shop and look for these discounts, and now there’s just this lack of trust,” Lapinsky said. “They’re tired of doing that, and there’s a lack of trust that they’re actually getting the value piece of it.”
For example, brands like Gap, Levi Strauss and Under Armour started their Black Friday sales on Thanksgiving, and the promotions were comparable to those offered earlier in the season.
“The whole idea of creating urgency is kind of goofy and gone,” Cohen said. “Like so many headlines that purportedly offer a deal, the deal is something of a scam.”
Savers across the UK are being offered a record number of accounts and products and with interest rates still well above 4 per cent on the most competitive options, should make sure their cash is working hard.
Data from Moneyfacts shows the number of savings accounts has risen to 2,486, including ISAs, the highest number on record. Cash ISAs alone, meanwhile, also saw the largest monthly rise since May 2024 and, with 712 offers in total, is the most since Moneyfacts started recording.
Both numbers come as the final tax year gets underway in which all savers are able to deposit a full £20,000 annual allowance into a cash ISA.
Starting from April 2027, under-65s will only be able to save a maximum of £12,000 into the tax-free savings wrappers, with the additional £8,000 reserved for investment purposes, such as a stocks and shares ISA.
That’s as part of a wider push from the government to encourage more people to invest, to build future wealth.
High interest rates are important not only to earn a good return on cash, but to ensure money doesn’t lose its value, or buying power, when measured against rising prices; in other words, inflation, which currently sits at around 3 per cent and is set to rise.
That means consumers should whenever possible look to be beating that rate as a minimum when it comes to their saving accounts, and plenty of places are still offering 4.5 per cent and even higher right now.
“This year the competition around ISA season was particularly strong, fuelled by the fact that for savers under 65 it’s the final year for them to utilise their full £20,000 allowance. Providers have been enticing new deposits with attractive deals,” said Caitlyn Eastell, personal finance analyst at Moneyfacts.
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“Savers should be taking advantage of this all-time high, and it may be especially timely as the new tax-year is the perfect window to review their current deal and switch to ensure they can maximise their returns before thresholds tighten.
“The number of savings deals paying above the Bank of England base rate has surged to its highest level since December 2021. While this could largely be driven by base rate remaining unchanged several months, providers have also been proactively adjusting rates in response to shifting interest rate expectations.
“Fixed rates reflect this change, with the average one-year ISA rising to over 4 per cent, reaching its highest point since May 2025, while its non-ISA counterpart saw its biggest increase since September 2023. Savers may enjoy more competitive returns in this environment; however, it can be a tricky balancing act because sharp spikes to household bills and inflation could quickly catch up, meaning savers may be left out of pocket.”
Meanwhile, thisbank has pointed to growing evidence showing that many households have multiple money accounts, but no clear overview of their true financial position.
Reviewing accounts – including joint and old current accounts – can turn up unexpected cash reserves, help families realise which subscriptions they are paying for but are no longer using and aid better budgeting, the bank says, giving a better understanding of where income and expenses match up.
“For many households, financial stress is exacerbated by complexity. By taking a simple, step-by-step approach, people can implement structure and clarity in their everyday financial management,” said Chris Waring, CEO of thisbank, while recommending each savings account has a particular role, such as everyday spending, long-term emergency buffer or fixed-term saver accounts with strong rates for predictable returns.
Underlining the need to be aware of where consumers are choosing to put their cash, analysis by savings app Spring shows that a huge majority of premium, paid-for accounts come with poorer returns, tiered interest rates or withdrawal restrictions.
Under a quarter (23 per cent) of easy access savings accounts on premium current accounts on the market are free of additional restrictions, their research showed, which included lower returns after £4,000 in an account with one, a paltry 1.35 per cent on balances under £100,000 elsewhere and nearly a third (30 per cent) having withdrawal limits.
The FTSE 100 started the week on the back foot on Monday as hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East once more hung in the balance.
“Just when you think it is safe to go back in the water, the alarm is sounded again,” said Tom Stevenson, investment director, Fidelity International.
The FTSE 100 closed down 58.55 points, 0.6%, at 10,609.08. The FTSE 250 ended 265.71 points lower, 1.2%, at 22,940.21, and the AIM All-Share fell 1.77 points, 0.2%, to 808.34.
Friday’s optimism gave way to renewed fears that hostilities could resume in the Middle East war after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following its brief reopening.
“The market mood is very different at the start of the week compared to Friday,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
The price of crude oil had plunged Friday after Iran said it would again allow ships to pass through the key shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz.
But prices rose once more on Monday as Iran closed the waterway and said the US blockade and seizure of an Iranian cargo ship breached the two-week ceasefire.
Brent oil traded higher at 94.45 dollars a barrel on Monday afternoon, compared with 89.15 dollars at the time of the equities close in London on Friday.
Ms Brooks said the jump in oil prices and pull-back in stocks is a reminder that the current ceasefire that expires on Wednesday is “fragile”.
On Monday, Iran insisted it has no plan to attend a new round of negotiations with the US, although US President Donald Trump said he was sending negotiators to Pakistan for talks.
In European equities on Monday, the CAC 40 in Paris ended down 1.1%, and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt fell 1.2%.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.5%.
Strategists at HSBC and UBS remained bullish on equity markets despite the latest market unease.
“Our view remains that we have passed peak geopolitical risk. Both sides have a strong incentive to find a deal. That said, we have been urging investors to expect a bumpy road to a lasting peace,” said Mark Haefele at UBS.
While, Max Kettner at HSBC said: “Despite the recent rally across the risk asset spectrum our sentiment and positioning framework still sends a buy signal. In short: be quick.”
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury stretched to 4.26% on Monday compared with 4.24% on Friday. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury widened to 4.89% from 4.88%.
The pound eased to 1.3535 dollars on Monday afternoon from 1.3556 dollars on Friday. Against the euro, sterling firmed to 1.1486 euros from 1.1481 euros.
The euro traded lower against the greenback, falling to 1.1786 dollars on Monday from 1.1805 dollars on Friday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 158.58 yen, up from 158.08 yen.
On London’s FTSE 100, oil majors BP and Shell benefited from the rising oil price, up 2.9% and 2.5%, recouping some of Friday’s heavy falls, while British Airways owner IAG fell 2.2%.
On the FTSE 250, Renishaw led the risers, up 6.2%, as it raised full-year guidance reflecting buoyant demand and a further “substantial expansion of our order book”.
The Gloucestershire-based supplier of manufacturing technologies, analytical instruments and medical devices now expects revenue in the financial year to June of £775 million to £805 million, raised from guidance of £740 million to £780 million provided in February.
It projects adjusted pre-tax profit of £145 million to £165 million, lifted from £132 million to £157 million.
Plus500 gained 3.8% as it said customer income reached a five-year record high in the first quarter of 2026 as it forecast full-year revenue and earnings ahead of market expectations.
Reflecting a strong first quarter of 2026, the Israel-based trading platform operator said it expects 2026 revenue and Ebitda to be ahead of current market expectations which it put at 779.3 million dollars and 360.4 million dollars respectively.
Chief executive David Zruia said: “The group delivered an excellent performance in the quarter, with strong growth across key financial and operational metrics.”
Elsewhere, bid interest drove shares of Evoke and Advanced Medical Solutions higher.
William Hill owner Evoke jumped 4.1% after it said it is in discussions with US casino operator Bally’s Intralot regarding a possible all-share takeover offer worth more than £200 million.
Back in December, Evoke kicked off a strategic review, which it said could include a sale of the company, after the UK Government budget which the gambling firm warned would lift yearly duty costs by up to £135 million.
Meanwhile, Advanced Medical Solutions rose 16% as it confirmed it is in talks regarding a possible offer for the company, little more than 12 months after another potential suitor failed to secure a deal with the firm.
On Saturday, Sky News reported that Boston-based private equity firm TA Associates was preparing an offer for AMS worth around 280 pence per share, or £600 million in total.
On Monday, the Cheshire-based surgical dressings company confirmed the talks with TA Associates, but stressed there can be no certainty that a firm offer will be made.
In March 2025, AMS was the subject of bid interest from London-based mid-market private equity firm Montagu Private Equity LLP, although no formal offer materialised.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould noted the latest takeover talks mean that 20 firms on the UK stock market are already involved in bid discussions this year.
“Even though the would-be buyers are yet to set a price tag for five of the proposed transactions, the total value of bids on the table is already £29.3 billion, equivalent to the aggregate reached across all successful bids in 2025, and the largest sum at this stage for any year this decade,” he pointed out.
Mr Mould said the level of interest “suggests that would-be buyers still believe the UK stock market offers value”.
Gold traded at 4,806.14 dollars an ounce on Monday, down from 4,869.13 dollars at the same time on Friday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Centrica, up 6.90p at 204.30p, BP, up 15.90p at 556.90p, Shell, up 78.50p at 3,274.50p, British American Tobacco, up 82.00p at 4,224.00p and SSE, up 47.00p at 2,516.50p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Metlen Energy & Metals, down 1.88p at 33.70p, Antofagasta, down 175.50p at 3,783.50p, Barratt Redrow, down 11.10p at 268.00p, Rolls Royce, down 48.20p at 1,262.40p and Fresnillo, down 120.00p at 3,662.00p.
Tuesday’s global economic calendar has UK unemployment and average earnings data at 7am, followed by US retail sales figures.
Tuesday’s local corporate calendar has a trading statement from miner Rio Tinto and half-year results from Primark owner Associated British Foods.
Contributed by Alliance News
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