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India can lift exports to Russia from $5 bn to $35 bn! Why a modern rupee-rouble settlement system is needed – explained – The Times of India

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India can lift exports to Russia from  bn to  bn! Why a modern rupee-rouble settlement system is needed – explained – The Times of India


India has the potential to increase its merchandise exports to Russia seven-fold—from $5 billion to $35 billion by 2030—if it secures market access in food, pharmaceuticals, textiles and machinery, according to Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava. The report comes as President Vladimir Putin visits Delhi and as Moscow reiterates its goal of lifting bilateral trade to $100 billion by the end of the decade.Although total trade is now approaching $70 billion, India’s exports remain stuck below $5 billion, while imports—dominated by crude oil—continue to surge. In FY2025, India exported $4.9 billion worth of goods to Russia but imported $63.8 billion, leaving a $58.9 billion trade deficit. Crude oil alone accounted for $50.3 billion, underlining how bilateral commerce has become “an oil-heavy relationship rather than a balanced partnership,” as Srivastava noted.Where India is missing the Russian marketGTRI mapped sectors where Russia is a major global importer, India is a major global exporter, but India’s market share in Russia is below 5%.In 2024, Russia imported $202.6 billion worth of goods, but Indian shipments accounted for just $4.84 billion—a 2.4% share.The widest gaps appear in food and agriculture. Russia imported $4.34bn of fruits and nuts, $1.62bn of oilseeds, $1.21bn of edible oils, $889m of meat and $518m of dairy. India’s combined exports across these categories were under $250 million—despite being a major global exporter of meat ($3.95bn), oilseeds ($2.17bn) and fruits ($1.67bn).Processed food mirrors the same imbalance. Russia spent $689m on cereal-based preparations and $1.15bn on processed fruit and vegetables; India sold just $0.6m and $42.7m respectively. Tobacco imports stood at $966m, while India contributed $37.5m.Fast-moving consumer goods and chemicals show a similar gap. Russia imported $3.13bn of perfumery and essential oils and $1.07bn of soaps and detergents, but India exported only $21.8m and $29.1m. In inorganic chemicals, Russia imported $5bn, while India shipped $219m.Pharmaceuticals—India’s strongest globally—are also under-represented. Russia imported $11.8bn of medicines, while India exported $413.5m, a 3.5% share despite being a $23bn-plus global pharma supplier.Textiles and apparel present even sharper gaps. Russia imported $730m of man-made filaments, $566m of fibres and $740m of knitted fabrics—but India exported $25.6m, $9m and zero respectively. In clothing, Russia imported $3.65bn of knitwear and $3.03bn of woven garments; India supplied just $24m and $76m.Engineering and manufacturing display breadth without depth. Russia imported $3bn of iron and steel and $3.5bn of fabricated metal products. India exported $140m and $76m. In industrial machinery, Russia imported $37bn, while India supplied $1.1bn. Electrical equipment imports were $20.5bn, but Indian exports were $424m. In optical and medical instruments, Russia bought nearly $7bn, while India exported $130m.The gap is widest in consumer industries. Russia imported $29bn of vehicles, but India exported just $45m. In furniture, Russia imported $2.3bn, while India sent less than $4m. Toys and sports goods saw Russian imports of $1.9bn, while India exported $6m.Why exports are stuck: the payments problemGTRI stresses that the absence of a predictable, efficient payment system is the single biggest barrier to Indian exporters. With Russian banks cut off from SWIFT, transactions have become slow, costly, and uncertain, limiting exporters’ willingness to enter the market.“Without a modern rupee–rouble settlement system, Russia may remain India’s largest oil supplier—but not a serious export market,” Srivastava noted.In the Soviet era, India and the USSR used a fixed rupee–rouble mechanism where trade was settled at a pre-agreed exchange rate, bypassing dollar dependence. A modern equivalent, the report argues, is essential to:

  • reduce currency and settlement risks
  • restore predictability to payments
  • encourage long-term contracts
  • allow SMEs to enter the Russian market
  • expand sectoral trade beyond hydrocarbons

Alongside currency reform, the report calls for sector-specific buyer–seller meets, dedicated trade missions, and institutional support to push Indian goods into Russian supermarkets, factories and distribution networks.What India must build to reach $35bnTo deepen its foothold in a $202bn Russian import market, India needs a multi-pronged approach. This includes:

  • a reliable local-currency settlement system
  • stronger logistics and certification frameworks
  • targeted trade promotion for food, pharma and textiles
  • institutional mechanisms to support exporters navigating compliance, payments and distribution challenges

If these structural reforms are implemented, GTRI estimates India can lift exports from $5bn to $35bn by 2030, dramatically narrowing the trade deficit and expanding India’s economic footprint in Eurasia.





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Jamie Dimon issues rare CEO criticism of Trump’s immigration policy: ‘I don’t like what I’m seeing’

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Jamie Dimon issues rare CEO criticism of Trump’s immigration policy: ‘I don’t like what I’m seeing’


Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., during the 2025 IIF annual membership meeting in Washington, Oct. 16, 2025.

Samuel Corum | Bloomberg | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday that he disagreed with President Donald Trump’s approach to immigration, offering a rare public rebuke by a U.S. corporate leader of one of Trump’s signature policies.

Dimon, speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, initially praised Trump’s moves to secure the borders of the world’s largest economy. Illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border fell to the lowest level in 50 years for the period from October 2024 to September 2025, the BBC reported citing federal data.

But Dimon, who has long advocated for immigration reform to boost U.S. economic growth, also made an apparent reference to videos of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers rounding up people alleged to be undocumented immigrants.

I don’t like what I’m seeing, five grown men beating up a little old lady,” Dimon said. “So I think we should calm down a little bit on the internal anger about immigration.”

It’s unclear if Dimon was speaking about a specific incident, or more broadly about ICE confrontations.

In the first year of his second term, Trump has overhauled U.S. immigration policy with a focus on mass deportations, tightened asylum access and ramped-up spending for ICE personnel and facilities. Among a torrent of new policies that changed the landscape for seeking American citizenship, the administration also rescinded guidance on where ICE arrests could happen, leading to raids at schools, hospitals and places of worship.

Unlike during Trump’s first term, American CEOs have mostly avoided public criticism of his policies. Wall Street analysts have speculated that business leaders fear retribution from the Trump administration, which has sued media companies, universities and law firms, and instead choose to appeal to the president out of the public spotlight.

On Wednesday, Dimon said that he wanted to know more about who is being swept up in ICE raids: “Are they here legally? Are they criminals? … Did they break American law?”

“We need these people,” Dimon added. “They work in our hospitals and hotels and restaurants and agriculture, and they’re good people .… They should be treated that way.”

‘A climate of fear’

For years, in annual shareholder letters and media interviews, Dimon has cited an immigration overhaul as one of the main avenues to unlock higher U.S. economic growth.

The veteran CEO of JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has previously supported a merit-based system for green cards as well as citizenship for people brought to America as children, and pushed back on proposals to limit H-1B visas.

On Wednesday, Dimon urged Trump to allow citizenship “for hardworking people” and “proper asylum” opportunities.”

“I think he can, because he controlled the borders,” Dimon said.

Later in the wide-ranging interview, The Economist Editor-in-Chief Zanny Minton Beddoes, told Dimon that she was surprised at how careful he and other CEOs were in speaking about Trump.

“You are one of the more outspoken business leaders,” Beddoes said. “I’m genuinely struck by the unwillingness of CEOs in America to say anything critical. There is a climate of fear in your country.”

Dimon pushed back, saying that he let his views be known about Trump’s tariffs, immigration policies and stance towards European allies.

“I think they should change their approach to immigration,” Dimon said. “I’ve said it. What the hell else do you want me to say?”



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Atal Pension Yojana to continue up to 2030-31 – The Times of India

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Atal Pension Yojana to continue up to 2030-31 – The Times of India


NEW DELHI: Union cabinet on Tuesday approved the continuation of Atal Pension Yojana (APY) up to 2030-31, along with extension of funding support for promotional and developmental activities and gap funding. PM Narendra Modi said the decision will ensure old-age income security for low-income group and workers in unorganised sector. APY offers a guaranteed pension of Rs 1,000 to Rs 5,000 per month starting at age 60, based on contributions.



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Supreme Court sceptical of Trump firing of Lisa Cook

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Supreme Court sceptical of Trump firing of Lisa Cook


Natalie ShermanBusiness reporter

Getty Images Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivers remarks during an event organized by the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy at the Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business at the university on November 20, 2025 in Washington, DCGetty Images

US President Donald Trump appeared on course for a setback at America’s top court on Wednesday over his unprecedented move to fire a central bank governor.

Supreme Court justices from the left and right asked why they should speed through such an impactful decision, citing concerns about process and implications for central bank independence and the wider economy.

Trump in August said he was removing Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of engaging in mortgage fraud, which she has denied.

Cook has argued she did not receive due process to dispute those claims, which Fed defenders say were a pretext to allow Trump to assert more control over the bank.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a conservative who was appointed by Trump, was among the justices to express sympathy with Cook’s arguments, asking: “What’s the fear of more process here?”

He later warned the administration’s interpretation of the law would “weaken, if not shatter, the independence of the Federal Reserve”.

‘Quite a big mistake’

By law, a president can only remove governors of the Federal Reserve “for cause”.

That requirement was intended to shield the central bank from political pressure and allow it to make policy independently.

The White House contends it has met that bar, accusing Cook of filing mortgage forms claiming two different principal residences at the same time. Banks typically offer lower interest rates for primary homes.

The Trump administration has asked the court to allow the president to remove Cook, a move lower courts had blocked while the case played out.

“Even if it’s inadvertent or a mistake, it’s quite a big mistake,” said solicitor general D John Sauer, who was arguing the case for the administration.

He said such conduct could undermine confidence in the bank and that courts were bound to defer to the president’s judgement when it comes to finding a cause.

He dismissed questions about process, noting that Trump had alerted Cook to the issue on social media before formally firing her.

“There was a social media post,” he said. “And the response was defiance.”

‘Nothing criminal whatsoever’

Cook has denied committing fraud.

In a November letter to the Justice Department, her lawyers said the claims were based on “cherry-picked, incomplete snippets of the full documents”.

They said there was “one stray reference to primary residence” in a mortgage application for an apartment in Alabama, but noted that the file also contained “truthful and more specific disclosures about the property’s use”.

“There is no fraud, no intent to deceive, nothing whatsoever criminal or remotely a basis to allege mortgage fraud,” her lawyers wrote.

Arguing on behalf of Cook, Paul Clement said people in her position should have the chance to present their evidence and be shielded from having a decision made in advance.

He said the administration’s interpretation of the law would make the protection that Congress intended by inserting the “for cause” requirement “toothless”.

Some justices indicated that they shared those concerns.

The “position that there’s no judicial review, no process required, no remedy available, very low bar for cause that the president alone determines – that would weaken if not shatter the independence of the Federal Reserve,” Kavanaugh said.

The lawsuit is seen as high stakes, given swirling debate about Trump’s efforts to influence the Fed, which he wants to lower interest rates more aggressively to boost economic growth.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell was among the officials expected to attend. He is facing his own criminal probe related to cost overruns during renovations of Fed properties – concerns he has called “pretexts”.

In other recent cases, the Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, has allowed the White House to proceed with firings.

But it has signalled that it views the Federal Reserve, which was designed to set policy independently from the White House, as different.

In a statement after the hearing, Cook’s lawyers said they were “hopeful” the court would recognise the importance of the Fed being able to operate free from political interference.

In her own statement, Cook said: “This case is about whether the Federal Reserve will set key interest rates guided by evidence and independent judgment or will succumb to political pressure.

“For as long as I serve at the Federal Reserve, I will uphold the principle of political independence in service to the American people.”

Several justices, including conservatives, indicated they were hesitant to greenlight Cook’s removal without courts having resolved issues like whether the mortgage filings, which were made before Cook was appointed, would meet the bar for a “for cause” firing.

“We know that the independence of the agency is very important and that that independence is harmed if we decide these issues too quickly and without due consideration,” said Justice Sonia Sotomayor, a liberal. “So to me, waiting to have at least the lower courts look at these issues first makes the most sense.”

“Is there any reason why this whole matter had to be handled by everybody… in such a hurried manner?” asked Justice Samuel Alito, a conservative.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett, another Trump appointee, pressed Sauer to explain what harm the president would suffer by waiting, noting that the court had been warned of potentially dire economic consequences of a decision that could weaken belief in the central bank’s independence.

“There’s a risk,” she said. “Doesn’t that counsel… caution on our part?”



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