Business
India can lift exports to Russia from $5 bn to $35 bn! Why a modern rupee-rouble settlement system is needed – explained – The Times of India
India has the potential to increase its merchandise exports to Russia seven-fold—from $5 billion to $35 billion by 2030—if it secures market access in food, pharmaceuticals, textiles and machinery, according to Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava. The report comes as President Vladimir Putin visits Delhi and as Moscow reiterates its goal of lifting bilateral trade to $100 billion by the end of the decade.Although total trade is now approaching $70 billion, India’s exports remain stuck below $5 billion, while imports—dominated by crude oil—continue to surge. In FY2025, India exported $4.9 billion worth of goods to Russia but imported $63.8 billion, leaving a $58.9 billion trade deficit. Crude oil alone accounted for $50.3 billion, underlining how bilateral commerce has become “an oil-heavy relationship rather than a balanced partnership,” as Srivastava noted.Where India is missing the Russian marketGTRI mapped sectors where Russia is a major global importer, India is a major global exporter, but India’s market share in Russia is below 5%.In 2024, Russia imported $202.6 billion worth of goods, but Indian shipments accounted for just $4.84 billion—a 2.4% share.The widest gaps appear in food and agriculture. Russia imported $4.34bn of fruits and nuts, $1.62bn of oilseeds, $1.21bn of edible oils, $889m of meat and $518m of dairy. India’s combined exports across these categories were under $250 million—despite being a major global exporter of meat ($3.95bn), oilseeds ($2.17bn) and fruits ($1.67bn).Processed food mirrors the same imbalance. Russia spent $689m on cereal-based preparations and $1.15bn on processed fruit and vegetables; India sold just $0.6m and $42.7m respectively. Tobacco imports stood at $966m, while India contributed $37.5m.Fast-moving consumer goods and chemicals show a similar gap. Russia imported $3.13bn of perfumery and essential oils and $1.07bn of soaps and detergents, but India exported only $21.8m and $29.1m. In inorganic chemicals, Russia imported $5bn, while India shipped $219m.Pharmaceuticals—India’s strongest globally—are also under-represented. Russia imported $11.8bn of medicines, while India exported $413.5m, a 3.5% share despite being a $23bn-plus global pharma supplier.Textiles and apparel present even sharper gaps. Russia imported $730m of man-made filaments, $566m of fibres and $740m of knitted fabrics—but India exported $25.6m, $9m and zero respectively. In clothing, Russia imported $3.65bn of knitwear and $3.03bn of woven garments; India supplied just $24m and $76m.Engineering and manufacturing display breadth without depth. Russia imported $3bn of iron and steel and $3.5bn of fabricated metal products. India exported $140m and $76m. In industrial machinery, Russia imported $37bn, while India supplied $1.1bn. Electrical equipment imports were $20.5bn, but Indian exports were $424m. In optical and medical instruments, Russia bought nearly $7bn, while India exported $130m.The gap is widest in consumer industries. Russia imported $29bn of vehicles, but India exported just $45m. In furniture, Russia imported $2.3bn, while India sent less than $4m. Toys and sports goods saw Russian imports of $1.9bn, while India exported $6m.Why exports are stuck: the payments problemGTRI stresses that the absence of a predictable, efficient payment system is the single biggest barrier to Indian exporters. With Russian banks cut off from SWIFT, transactions have become slow, costly, and uncertain, limiting exporters’ willingness to enter the market.“Without a modern rupee–rouble settlement system, Russia may remain India’s largest oil supplier—but not a serious export market,” Srivastava noted.In the Soviet era, India and the USSR used a fixed rupee–rouble mechanism where trade was settled at a pre-agreed exchange rate, bypassing dollar dependence. A modern equivalent, the report argues, is essential to:
- reduce currency and settlement risks
- restore predictability to payments
- encourage long-term contracts
- allow SMEs to enter the Russian market
- expand sectoral trade beyond hydrocarbons
Alongside currency reform, the report calls for sector-specific buyer–seller meets, dedicated trade missions, and institutional support to push Indian goods into Russian supermarkets, factories and distribution networks.What India must build to reach $35bnTo deepen its foothold in a $202bn Russian import market, India needs a multi-pronged approach. This includes:
- a reliable local-currency settlement system
- stronger logistics and certification frameworks
- targeted trade promotion for food, pharma and textiles
- institutional mechanisms to support exporters navigating compliance, payments and distribution challenges
If these structural reforms are implemented, GTRI estimates India can lift exports from $5bn to $35bn by 2030, dramatically narrowing the trade deficit and expanding India’s economic footprint in Eurasia.
Business
Elon Musk said control of OpenAI should go to his children, Sam Altman tells jury
Sam Altman said Elon Musk tried many times for total control of OpenAI, which he’s now suing.
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Business
United Airlines flight attendants ratify new contract with 31% raises this summer
A United Airlines plane approaches the runway at Denver International Airport on March 23, 2026.
Al Drago | Getty Images
United Airlines flight attendants approved a new five-year labor contract with 31% average raises to base pay by August and other improvements, marking the last of the major carriers with unionized flight crews to reach a deal post-Covid.
The labor deal would give United’s roughly 30,000 flight attendants their first raises in close to six years. The company and the flight attendants’ union reached a preliminary deal in March. Crews had rejected a contract last year.
The union said the contract won 82% approval from the flight attendants, with close to 90% of them voting.
“The contract will immediately change the lives of United Flight Attendants, especially our thousands of new hires who have been hired since the pandemic,” said Ken Diaz, president of the United chapter of the Association of Flight Attendants.
The contract also includes boarding pay, or pay for when the aircraft’s door is open and travelers are getting on. Airlines had for years started flight attendants’ pay clock once the boarding door was closed.
The contract comes with a roughly 7% to 8% increase in compensation and $741 million in back pay, as well as quality-of-life improvements like restrictions on red-eye flights and “sit pay” during disruptions of more than 2½ hours.
Business
Pound wobbles and bonds suffer as Starmer battles on
Stocks struggled on Tuesday, although blue chips proved resilient, amid a triple whammy of domestic political strife, surging US inflation and a lack of progress in the Middle East.
The FTSE 100 closed down just 4.11 points at 10,265.32. The FTSE 250 ended down 341.66 points, 1.5%, at 22,466.20, and the AIM All-Share fell 11.75 points, 1.4%, at 810.66.
The pound fell to 1.3505 dollars on Tuesday afternoon from 1.3651 dollars on Monday. Against the euro, sterling was lower at 1.1517 euros from 1.1584 euros on Monday.
The yield on UK 10-year gilts traded at 5.10%, up from 5.01% the day before.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer defied calls for him to quit, despite a growing number of Labour MPs demanding that he steps aside.
“The Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered,” Sir Keir told ministers during crunch talks over his future, as no one person has stepped forward to challenge him yet.
“The country expects us to get on with governing. That is what I am doing and what we must do as a Cabinet,” he added.
More than 80 of Labour’s 403 MPs have now called for Sir Keir to quit immediately, or to set out a timetable for his resignation, including some ministers.
Banks sold off, amid reports of a possible windfall tax on the sector should there be a change at the top of the Government.
“Banks narrowly avoided a higher tax rate at the last budget, but our base case now assumes the UK banking surcharge to increase from 3% to 5%,” said the banking team at JPMorgan.
NatWest fell 3.2%, Lloyds Banking Group dipped 4.4% and Barclays declined 3.6%.
Meanwhile, the surging bond yields weighed on interest rate-sensitive housebuilders, with Barratt Redrow down 4.1% and Taylor Wimpey 2.4% lower.
Adding to the uncertain mood was another spike in the oil price as the impasse in the Middle East carried on.
Iran’s chief negotiator said on Tuesday that Washington must accept Tehran’s latest peace plan or face failure, after US President Donald Trump warned a truce was on the brink of collapse.
“Relations between Washington and Tehran appear to be more strained than at any time since the original ceasefire was announced just over a month ago,” observed David Morrison at Trade Nation, suggesting that hostilities could “resume at any time”.
Brent crude for July delivery was trading at 108.07 dollars a barrel on Tuesday, up compared with 103.70 dollars at the time of the equities close in London on Monday.
In Europe on Tuesday, the CAC 40 in Paris ended down 1.0%, and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt declined 1.6%.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 1.0% while the Nasdaq Composite was 1.7% lower.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury widened to 4.46% on Tuesday from 4.39% on Friday. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury stretched to 5.02% from 4.97%.
The impact of the Iran war was reflected in soaring US inflation figures for April.
Annual CPI inflation sped up to 3.8% in April from 3.3% in March, above FXStreet-cited expectations of a 3.7% rise.
Monthly, energy costs were up 5.6% in April after a 21.3% jump in March.
Excluding food and energy costs, core CPI was up 2.8% year-on-year in April, up from 2.6% in March and higher than an expected 2.7%.
Analysts explained that much of the upside in core inflation came from a spike in shelter costs.
TD Economics said the numbers reinforce why the Fed needs to remain “patient”.
“Even assuming a ‘more normal’ reading on shelter prices last month, core inflation would’ve still firmed relative to March. With secondary price effects from higher energy prices likely to intensify in the months ahead, we’re likely to see core measures of inflation drift a bit higher and hover around 3% through year-end,” the broker said.
While Bank of America said the latest increase means inflation is getting “very uncomfortable” for the Fed.
Following the data, Fed futures now place a 60% probability of a rate hike by March next year.
The euro traded slightly lower against the greenback, at 1.1729 dollars on Tuesday from 1.1782 dollars on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at 157.73 yen, higher than 157.01 yen.
Back in London, Vodafone fell back 7.0% after mixed full-year results with adjusted earnings short of hopes but adjusted cash flow ahead.
“In the stock market it’s often said that it’s better to travel than arrive, hence why shares in Vodafone dipped on robust-looking full-year results after a strong rally in the past 12 months,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.
Vodafone shares have risen 60% in the last 12 months.
Intertek led the risers, up 6.4%, as it said it was “reviewing” the latest takeover proposal from suitor EQT Fund Management Sarl.
Intertek has turned down three previous approaches from EQT.
On the FTSE 250, Greggs rose 8.0% after reporting higher sales in the opening weeks of 2026 and maintaining full-year expectations.
But Wickes plunged 12% after reporting mixed trading as wet weather weighed on retail demand at the start of 2026.
Gold traded lower at 4,663.87 dollars an ounce on Tuesday, from 4,733.27 dollars on Monday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Intertek, up 320.00p at 5,300.00p, British American Tobacco, up 255.00p at 4,634.00p, Compass Group, up 1.74p at 31.93p, Imperial Brands, up 104.00p at 2,832.00p and London Stock Exchange Group, up 328.00p at 9,348.00p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Vodafone Group, down 8.45p at 111.95p, 3i Group, down 116.00p at 2,400.00p, St James’s Place, down 52.50p at 1,154.50p, Lloyds Banking Group, down 4.28p at 94.06p and Marks & Spencer, down 13.60p at 308.90p.
Wednesday’s global economic calendar has eurozone industrial production and GDP data, the King’s Speech in the UK and US PPI figures.
Wednesday’s local corporate calendar has a trading statement from Spirax Group.
Contributed by Alliance News
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